F's "Devil in the Detail" Intraday FX Trading Journal 2015

[Forexmospherian]

GU - Friday am Session from LO

I am going to post some charts on the GU this morning - as its been nice with regards to Key Times and Time Windows

All together I have had 8 trades on it so far - and its not Midday

EU as not been that nice - nor the EJ - and UCad and UJ only average

But the GU had far nicer PA and suited my method -

Time shown with arrow directions etc starting from LO and 8 00 am

8 00 am was sell time - and after 9 00 am was buy time above

Then

We add the sell again at another key time

And finally -

After 10 00 am the turn again shown with up arrow but for me it was alter on after 10 21 amd 10 30 am more scalp buys

Now live at 11 36 am we have broken above up past last interim high to 5418

 

[Forexmospherian]

GU - Friday US session Update

This is an update on the GU again

This chart shows 8 key times from LO at 8 00 am for today's trades.

I have over-traded it today - but its been nice PA and the moves have been ideal

Its only onE pair I have been on today - but by far given me the most pips and been the easiest to follow using my method

 

[Forexmospherian]

Sunday - March Ist 2015.

Its been my first month with this particular trading journal and performance wise - I am very pleased with my results.

I have traded every day - although a couple of half days in there due to other commitments and most importantly - No losing day.

Normally by now - I would have had a week or more holiday - my skiing days are over - so it been either Dubai or Florida to get away from the UK winter. But this years different and so looking at a early spring trip maybe in April due to fact too much happening with parents in law and also with the kids - with one now at Uni.

I started off really well for the first 2 weeks of February - mainly due to making lots of nice pips off the Ucad - but last 2 weeks have no real swing trade over 150+ pips. My daily target is 50 pips and monthly target - anything around 1000 pips. After the first 10 days I was well ahead of my monthly target - but failed to double it with 2000+ pips. I think its one of the best trading February I have had - not money wise but certainly pip wise.

March as 22 trading days in it and I hope to trade at least 16 as full session along with some half days planned. I am am not holding any 30% stake trades on for the new month and so start at zero. Everyday last month I easily made over my 50 pip target - but last year I had several months with slow days and more than normal losing trades leaving me with only totals of 25 to 40 pips in total in my trading day period. If this happens on any day in March - I will let you know and go more into detail on why it has happened - ie very slow session ? - over 5 losing trades ? not having 6 to 10 hrs available to trade ? etc etc.

In terms of number of intraday actual trades in February - easily over 300 trades in total with over 160 left on with 30% stakes with stops in profit. Win ratios - mid 70% - I always tend to stay in the 62% to 87% area - but as you can imagine thats a big difference on say 300 trades - ie 62% wins - would give me 114 losing scalps - whereas say 85% win ratio - only gives me 45 losses - big difference - but in actual pips might only be 190 - 220 pips.

I rarely take less than 220 trades in a full month of trading - and for me over say 350 -400 trades - is too much - as well as being too tiring.

Now we are in March I will look at opening this thread up - maybe next weekend to all Forum friends and genuine interested followers - and that can be any member - but not members who just want to go off subject - ie saying I am Major Magnum - or that I cannot trade and I am a secret vendor or what ever.

All false - but I do have an agenda - and that is making sure all FX traders see another side to the rubbish put out by industry and its associates - to basically misguide newbie to think they can be experts in just a year or two and then even if they make it too full time - they should only look at returns of 30 -50 % per annum - ie like the experts at Hedge Funds and Banks etc etc ( what a joke ;-) )

I wish you all a good month of trading in March

All the best

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Monday March 2nd 2015

Lunch time

Its been a really nice comfortable Monday AM session so far

Its fairly slow - but so far my main pips come from EJ / UCad and EU

Nice PA - a few slow 20 -30 min periods - but many pairs totally "followable"

Only posted one chart so far in my daily intraday thread - but will post a few in here later.

Some of the TW's have worked to a tee this morning - mainly from 8 00 am and LO

Noticed got some red US news at 3 00 pm - but over this next hour - no high priority announcements

Good start to the new month - not set the world on fire - but at least got my daily target within 4 hrs

Good Trading

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Thursday 5th March - end of my trading day

I normally finish trading anytime from 4 30 pm to 5 30 pm most days.

I might have some 30% stake trades left on which I thin check during the evening - but only like to leave them on overnight if they are already over 70 or 100 + pips in profit above the new stop.

Most days I close 30% trades with anything from just 1 or 2 pips profit when they don't really work - or anything from 25 pips to 100+ pips when we have had nice trends or good rallies.

Perfect examples today have been on the EA and EJ and of course the EU that basically dropped 120 pips after the news and during the early US session to a new year low of 1 0988/9.

I am going to post 2 charts of the EU with some TW's and Key Times - from 11 00 am to 5 00 pm

I have marked 6 key times over the 7 hrs - there are a few more - but on just those 7 trades the EU moved through over 220 pips.

I was not in everyone - as my preference is normally the EJ and also the EA - both far better movers and well worth the extra 0 6 - 1 pip extra spread

Will post a EA chart later on

Freaky Friday tomorrow - ie NFP news day - so should be another busy one

 

[Forexmospherian]

AU - after 5 30pm Thursday - 2 charts explaining why a Intraday BUY

This was from yesterday and in the evening -

Comment below I said to DavidKl on his AU thread at 3 51pm today

see below




After 5 30pm and 6 00 pm scalp buys at 7756 area was the buy - see chart

Cannot get over 7785 ( for now ) - but even just 20 - 25 pips is a RR of 4 or 5

7785 to 7800 is all R - and 7742 to 60 is all S

So maybe 30 -60 pip range for now

See you in the morning

Now today - Friday 6th March - as of 10 45 pm approx

AU carried on up so far to 7815 area - a 60 pip up move

Have got more than 60 pips off it from 5 30 pm last night as traded it now 5 times in total

 

[Forexmospherian]

Wednesday 11th March 2015 - What a day !!!

I realise I did not do anything yesterday on big round numbers - as many of the pairs I trade all had supports and resistances around the psychological big round numbers - like for example 1.0000 on the UChf and 7600 on the AU etc etc.

Well all seems to have been breached today - and what a day with many pairs moving over 150 and 200 pips over the last 12 -15 hrs or so.

Instead wanted to mention how experienced intraday trader need never worry about scalping against the daily trend and of course catch the falling knife or jump on the runaway train as many traders call it

First important point is - You can never be 100% correct intraday trading - but over the last 7 yrs or so - since I have been full time - only intraday trading FX pairs ( no Gold / Silver / OIl / Indices etc ) I have managed to stay between lows of 6!% win ratios up to very high 85-87% win ratios all based on batches of 100 trades- over anything from 4 to 9 days.

Even more important - i have always scalped in both directions - never mind any daily or weekly/ month trend - to just make 10 -20 pips against any trend is nothing in most sessions - and of course can happen very quickly - ie under 10 minutes and be a RR of at least 2 and as high as 4.

As examples today - I was not here for 2 very important TW's and on the EU -if I add up the 5 main buy scalp times on the EU today - there was easy 100 pips available - ( yes over 100 pips ) so even if you only achieved 50 or even just 25 pips - it a nice amount towards your daily target.

The EU dropped 200 pips + in total today - and on a 2 hr or 4hr chart many would say why buy - just stay with 50 pip stop size ??

Well the market is too clever for allowing traders to have it totally easy and so today you would have needed a 70 pip trailing stop on the EU to be safe and bag over 150 + pips - and even then its only a RR of 2 or 3 - hardly that inspiring.

Over the day I Traded 7 pairs - either purely on scalps or many on 30% swing trades with stops in profit

Only 2 of those pairs moved in a direction less than than 80 pips and the other 5 pairs made all between 140 and 200+ pips - each.

No I did not get anywhere near 700 or 800 pips - in fact not even 350 pips in the end - but it was still a great day both scalp and swing wise

To finish - my last call in the Intraday thread was the change / turn at the start of the 6 00 pm TW - ie at 5 51 pm

Since then 3 pairs - EU / EJ / GU scalp buys have moved up in total over 140 pips = ie also against their daily trends ;-))

Days like today don't happen every week or even every month - but when you catch them - it's all worth those 1000's of chart watching hours you put in

Another update later in the week

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

The "devil is always in the detail" - some great examples this last week

Nobody wants to hear me rattling on about me having another good trading week - mainly for 2 different reasons -

1. Some might say - he will not show his results and if has done the years and the work he says he had done - ie 13 yrs FX - 7 yrs full time - 17K + live trades - well if he cannot make a little bit of money - then what hope have we FX traders in our first year or two etc etc - and it must all be rubbish because top hedge Fund traders can never make the percentages increases he makes in a month in even 9 or 12 months - so he lying etc etc.

2. If he even makes half what he claims - he's a "one off" and so not like 95% of retail FX traders - ie 75-90% lose and then maybe 5 -10% do make regular gains on a weekly and monthly basis - like normal traders.

That's why I am delighted that I have been able to show one normal FX trader with just approx 2 yrs of getting really nowhere whats possible - and now over a year later - he is really seeing the difference - along with joy and the gains.

I don't sell courses - I dont do one to one mentoring - I have never written a book and only ever taught one proper FX trader - totally free of charge - just to show that its all possible and that my method and strategy does work and can give really great results - without any silly drawdowns and massive risk

There is no way you can do it on a $10 or 50 million capital account - in fact I have never even tried it on any account over $250k -but size is a different ballgame for so many reasons etc.

So today - I am giving praise and credit to Major Magnum - a trader who I have never met - but have helped since Nov / Dec 2013 - and from January 2014 to about July / August he was spending anything from 2 to 5 hrs a day following my intraday thread as well as another 10 -20 hrs a week studying and doing his homework on live charts and trading at the coalface .

Now this year and after maybe 3-6 months on demo - and another 6 months on a small live account - he's starting to see proper consistent results - that even I am impressed with.

He is quite happy to share his results ( for now - maybe not when he on a $50 k+ account ) and to even join in on the other daily thread making calls and telling us his next plans etc etc

This is just 2 days last week - he made approx 900 pips net on over 80 trades with a 85%+ win ratio - with most of his losses all under 5 pips

OK there is doubling up on intraday trades as he" pyramids and peels" from entries and before finally exiting - so he might have only taken say 25 intraday direction trades on just 3 or 4 pairs - but each direction might have 2 or 5 trades on it

 

[Forexmospherian]

Update on Sunday 22nd March 2015

March 2015 as been one of the best March's for ages in the FX market

We have had great volumes and volatility leading to large moves and fantastic opportunities for Intraday FX traders.

I appreciate it maybe only the really experienced intraday traders who really can take advantages of so many opportunities - the type who are looking for buy and sell trades every session and are not scared or "psyched out" by the market two way moves

Wednesday 18th Match we saw more big surprise - a turn in price structures earlier on in the day - and then after the FOMC - massive moves due to dollar weakness - and allowing the EU to rise up approx 450 pips over a 10 hr period

Was that the turn of fortunes for the US dollar and the start of the decline ??

I am going to post a EU chart showing what I consider the main key levels for this next week

Looks like we have lost the Intraday contributions of NVP for next week and maybe April and also Dinos - who i am sorry to see leave the forum - but pleased to say we have had some more very experienced and skilful FX traders - such as Spinola and Dow Jones - who may also give Major Magnum a run for his money on the performance side.

I am looking forward to trying to help My Attitude with his FX progress as well - and on Friday he took a successful FX trade with the help of a I min LR chart along with time windows and some guidance off me - and recorded it live on his own video featured on his trade journal. I think its after the 12 min point he enters and exit with nice 15 pips off a 5 pip stop. He had set his target of that amount - but the move actually went then another 50+ pips and so I am sure he will remember that part for future trades etc

I do plan to have a holiday break in April but its a few weeks away yet.

All FX contributions and questions welcome in the Intraday thread and although I might not be able to answer always right away - i will try and get back to members within the day.

Good Trading to all T2W members - its all possible - but will take time and lots of study and experience to get there

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

More "devil in the detail" stuff to explain

I have got 2 topics to explain in a bit more detail - both have arisen this week and are in a sense connected.

First one is explaining more on the idea of PPND - or just pyramiding and peeling on an intraday basis -explaining the many advantages over simpler techniques.

Second one - To me - Intraday trading is far from simple - it complex and you just cannot buy experience off the shelf - you cannot gain it all from a mentor or book - you have to live it yourself.

I will start with his second topic first

When I first joined this Forum over 16 months ago - the normal stuff - ie - the guys a fraud - dodgy vendor and he cannot scalp and blog at same time etc etc etc

I knew at the point - the guys saying it had never really got it an high level or had years and years of experience intraday trading behind them

I can use driving a car as a similar analogy . This last 2 years I have been teaching my daughter to drive - and now in last month my son.

My daughter used to say - "I just cannot do it - ie how can I balance the clutch with the handbrake on a hill whilst looking out of mirrors and indicating to pull out from a parked position and turning the wheel with my hands in the correct position etc - its just too many things to do at the same time ??"

Now my son is saying - "I am having to really think on letting the clutch out and not stalling - how can you do it so quickly" - etc etc

Now all drivers have been there .

Then after a 6 months or so - you are driving and multi tasking and it all seems -easy - and you think you are now as good as Lewis Hamilton.

But really until you have done say 50k miles or even 100k - you are a novice.

Some drivers go 2 + years without driving in Fog or in snow - or even on a motorway etc etc

Well its just the same in intraday trading

You cannot buy or gain all the experience and knowledge in a few months - or even a year or two - it does not work like that.

Markets are dynamic - like driving around Hyde park in London in rush hour - its constantly a changing environment - and you have to learn how to deal with it

So nowadays for me after 7 yrs full time etc - I can scalp - blog - intraday trade - watch the news on TV and listen to the radio whilst having a bacon sarnie etc etc.

But I would not have dared do that in my first few years before i went full time - I would not have been able to focus etc etc.

So all newer intraday traders - walk before you run - don't move from step 1 or 2 to step 15 all within one month - unless you want an accident - that could be costly to your account.

Will explain more on ratios etc on pyramiding and peeling another time

Good Trading


Regards


F

Ps - any questions/ queries etc for now - on normal intraday thread

 

[Forexmospherian]

Pyramid and Peel - but Never Dump ( PPND)

Personally - I am not quite there - ie at being a master FX trader who can scalp / intraday / swing / Position etc - I have stayed and just focused on scalping and swing trading with safety - ie with a stop in profit along with pyramiding and peeling using further scalps to add to the kitty.

I am going to give a few examples of what I mean along with some stake ratios that might help you continually add to your pip tally.

This is already complex stuff - but I will try and keep it simple to explain the basic of what you are trying to achieve - ie maximizing your revenues but without adding to more to your risk exposure.

Lets start with a simple $10 a pip entry on a scalp buy on a FX pair that as potential to move say 100 -150 pips during the day.

We look for an a low price entry in a TW and decided to place the $10 on with stop an 5 pips lower. For me this stop is a soft mental soft - not a hard fixed stop - that can be 20 -25 pips lower etc - because I have no intention of using it - ie if the scalp does not work - i will try and get out still with 1 or 2 pips or worse case minus 3 -4 pips - I will not wait for the stop whether at 5 or 6 or 7 pips.

The move start and over next 10 mins carries on rising by approximately 13 pips.

I see further potential up to say 16 or 20 pips before we hit a R level - but decide to take 70% profit off at 13 pips .

ie 13 pips at $7 = $91 banked for a start and then I am left with $3 on still .

Now normally - i would stick a stop in 2 or 3 pips of profit and hope the low holds 30 mins and I might get more upside.

Worse case scenario - this trade is stopped out and I end up in total with $91 off the initial scalp and then just $9 pips off a 3 pips in profit stop = total $100.

But I do have a choice now - and I can relax,

For example - I might say look i have had a good morning with say 4 or 5 other profitable trades - I am just going to lock in $45 of profit and use $91 -45 = $46 as a larger stop on my 30% stake.

So that means I can place my stop now 15 pips below my initial entry and give me more room for the move to continue well up higher than just 13 or 20 pips.

So the options are for now -


1 $91 + just $9 of a 3 pip stop in profit - ie $100

2.$91 + a possible 20 or 30 or even 70 extra pips off a $3 a pip part stake left on - - so maybe $180 or even over $250 off the initial trade

3. $45 + a possible 20 or 30 or even 100 or 250 or even 400 + pips if you play the pyramid and peel method correctly - so a guaranteed $45 of your initial scalp - could make say $ 200+ in the day - or even over 3 or 5 days $500 + by adding and trading both ways whilst locking your profits in with the additional scalps .

For example - you might after 2 hrs be up 60 pips and decide that after 25 pips at just $3 a pip you add another scalp buy at $10 a pips and make sure out of the guaranteed $45 and additional $75 of the part stake - total $120 guaranteed to bank - you are happy to expose say $40 of this amount and add the additional $10 a pip scalp with a 4 pip stop from where you entered.

Like wise - you could just add an additional $5 a pip giving you a free 8 pips to play with - and then when the move continues up say 10 more pips of profit you drop down to another 30% stake again.

All the while the aim is not to be just B/E - ( why would you do that ? - profit is the name of the game ) - but to continually add to your kitty awaiting to bank

We know you have to speculate to accumulate - but done correctly you can do it without more exposure and risk and know all the while - worst case scenario - i still make money - without having to babysit a swing trade for 2 or 4 or 8 hrs.

Do this on 2 or 3 pairs - and you can set and forget once you have your timing correct - and allow you to scalp new pairs - or even scalp against your 30% trade

I have every week cases when I am up say 45 or 50 pips on 30% and expect a 15 -25 pip retrace - which I then scalp at 100% stake against the 30% position I am already in - but want to stay with. My profit on the stake then against my 30% stake swing is really just 70% - because every pip i gain off the scalp - I lose 30% off the swing - but the important part - you are in a "win - win" scenario - and making money off 2 way moves.

I hope this makes sense - It will to experienced traders - but it might not to many who basically keep trading and money management far too simple

Good Trading


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Talking of PPND - just been watching some videos from Charlie Burton - the trader who featured in the BBC Documentary "Millions by the minute"

He's just finished his 2 year challenge of taking a live trading account from approximately 10K to 100K ( actually he started with just over 8000 )

First year - not taking any trades using more than 5% stake size and with a maximum drawdown of 8% he took his account up to just over 38k - so a 30k profit in 12 months and approx 375%

His target had been a 400% first year increase - so he was not too far off and then he looked upon it easier to make the rest of the game with being able to use more size.

I don't know his final 2 year result which finished end of March 2015 ( not a member of his site or trading club ) But I do know he managed to add approx 36k on by using a PPND strategy over the summer months from a basic first entry of 1 lot and ending up with 10 lots on the final moves before he exited the trade.

So as he took his live account up over 1000% in 2 yrs - hope to find out this month or so

Many of his live trades he has featured on videos etc and during live webinars and he has shown his full statement a few time during the first 18 months.

This exercise was just really to show it all can be done - and his own main personal account he trades over the same period he added 36 k on - he took up over 100k in a similar month or so period.

Seems all genuine and also has approx 20 yrs of trading experience behind him - which maybe explains it all ;-)

 

[Forexmospherian]

April 2015 - Lets look more at the EU

March 2015 was an extremely good month for me and I would assume a great month for any experienced Intraday FX Trader.

Just focusing on the EU - ( approx 60% of all my trades - although less in terms of money generated ) it dropped over 700 pips in the first half of the month and then went back up approx 600 pips

You then add in all the intraday 2 ways moves - and there is easy 2500 pips to try and catch if you trade both ways and so I would say unless you made over a third of that number - say approx 800 pips - you are really missing out on whats available.

April 1st 2015 was a change day for me on EU bias

I have posted 2 charts below - a 5 min and a 45 mins

I have 3 key price areas - the low of approx 0450 - the high of approx 1050 and now approx 0700.

If we stay over 0700 and make over 1050 - that's a clear bull bias kicking in

If we never make over 1050 and fall under 0700 - then that looks like the bears might me getting back in control.

Forget all you read from analysts and fortune tellers - and those banksters - listen to a proper trader - who does not guess or fortune tell or try and mislead - just says it how i see it.

So will I be placing large stakes on EU buys

You bet - for sure - but only at the right times and prices and also I will be scalp selling as well - because price will go both ways - its just does not go up 500 pips without 25 - 50 - even 150 pip pullbacks - and I want money off both selling as well as buying - that why I am a short term Intraday trader ;-)


EU - 5 mins

EU - 45 min - Note 3 key prices circled

Have a good April - unfortunately I will be away on a holiday break for part the month - so I dont see it being better for me than March

Still you never know ;-))

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - The change after Monday 4 00 pm 6th April 2015

EU

April 1st onwards - The EU was bullish and trying to breach out above 1050+

All changed after 4 00 pm on April 6th

After going up approx 300 pips one week - last week we nearly fell 500 pips

Lets look at a 45 min chart for a start - purely because I cannot cover all I need to show on a 1 or 5 min chart - but I will explain why we have to place preference on the 1 and 5 min charts before the 1 hr or 4 hr or even the daily etc

This was from April 1st to the 5th

Now lets look at another 45 min chart nearly covering the last month showing the changes so far in first 12 days of April - Including last week

Trouble is as I will show - relying on a 45 min or 1 hr or 4 hr chart - its just too slow

The change according to my red line LR on the small frames was as following

1 Min Chart - After 4 00 pm at 1035 on Monday 6th April and then 6 00 pm at 0994

3 min Chart - After 6 00 pm at 0990 on Monday 6th April

5 min Chart - After 8 15 pm at 0950 on Monday 6th April

15 min Chart - After Midday on Wednesday 8th April at 0875

30 min Chart - After 4 30 pm on Wednesday 8th April at 0825

45 min Chart - After 4 45pm on Wednesday 8th April at 0840 / 50 area

60 min Chart - After 9 00 am Thursday 9th April at 0750 area

Now for Monday 13th April - the EU really needs back over 0625 / 0650 to even think of holding scalp buys on for a test back up to 0700 or 0750 +

Under 0575 and 0550 - its just lower again to test 0500 and the low in the mid 0400 area

Will I only be selling next week ??

NO

Did I just sell last week with a near 500 pip drop

NO I made easily over 80 pips scalp buying - although a lot more off 30% sell trades

Have a good week - I will - I am Holiday after Tuesday ;-)

 

[Forexmospherian]

We now start the first trading week of May on Monday and just a brief recap on April.

Although it was not as good as my previous months of 2015 - that was mainly due to me being on holiday for nearly half the trading days - it was still a very profitable month and I easily over achieved my normal monthly target - based on a daily target of 50 pips multiplied by the normal 20 trading days.

This trading journal is called the "devil is in the detail" for a reason and i like to use it go into more detail on my method as used daily on the Intraday short term FX trading thread.

I have already - in detail - explained the approx 60 times of the trading day I look for scalps - explained more on PPND and even key times and time windows etc - but now I will try and show live cases based on the most popular FX pair - ie the Eur / Usd or as I call it the EU.

It was only the latter part of April that we started to see no more LL's in price and then HH's again - with the latest HH being on May 1st at approx 3 00 pm at 1290 - after a previous high earlier on in the day at 1285/6.

Many traders are now looking at breaching above 1300 and even going towards 1500.

However the Banksters and many big funds still see under 500 and even 300 during this quarter - but maybe want to "dump" retail and other bears before that actually happens.

For me - its all "Fortune Telling" and that's why for me I will not trade or speculate longer term - unless I already have a buy or sell trade already in the market with a stop in profit - knowing then what ever might happen - I will not suffer a loss.

I plan to post some different EU chart here during the day and explaining my opinion with regards to this next week and the month of May.

The first ones I will be posting include one I posted in my Intraday thread on Friday and its a perfect example of how TW's work with regards to further clues on price direction - which again - i will explain in more detail.

I will also be posting an end of Friday chart and then discuss how the markets "gameplan" might pan out next.

More to follow later on

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - in more Detail for the month of May

This was High sell off on Friday Morning

Then we get another new ( false ) High at 3 00 pm Friday Afternoon at 1290 - first chart here showing the attempt and then the next chart under showing what happened afterwards and as the end of the day

Now this is a longer term view - showing we could easily have a 200 or even 350+ pullback or retrace down - and still be in the recent uptrend

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU

8 00 pm Monday Evening 4th of May

Price approx around 1135 area with a low 1124

That's a 150 pip retrace or pullback from the high on Friday 1st at 3 00 pm at approx 1290

Back to normal on the Intraday Thread tomorrow - with a few red news announcements in the morning

See you then

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - Pre UK Election and Freaky Friday - ie NFP day

I had wondered whether the high on the EU at 3 00 pm UK time on Friday 1st May might have been start of a change and a turn down on the EU.

Don't forget - all the big Banksters have forecasted this second quarter of 2015 to see the EU fall further under 1 0500 and down to 0300 or even a lot lower.

Instead - as you might guess - it fools all the Bears who have been selling in February and March and goes back up to 1290 and then today 1367 area

Will it now be 1400 - or even 1500+ or will the UK election and the NFP big announcement on Friday be the reasons to suddenly drop it 300 or 500 pips again.???

I have not got a clue - as no fortune teller - but after seeing it drop over 200 pips from last Friday and then yesterday and today go back up over 300+ pips - I am ready for anything to happen on the EU over the month of May - that's why I though I would feature it in my Trading Journal

I will feature the GU more in the normal Intraday thread - as that could be set up for a big Thursday evening / Friday change - last election day - the GU moved over 600 pips in a day - although this time - I think we are more ready for another coalition - and that was a surprise last time.

I am posting a 4 min chart to cover the last 4 trading days back to previous high on Friday afternoon - 1st of May.

I will be discussing the intraday options more in my daily thread tomorrow

What ever you get up to on the FX side this next 2 days - take care and try and keep any losses as small as possible

Good Luck


F


EU - 4 Min LR Chart with 3 main KEY Times in TW's marked

 

[Forexmospherian]

The GU and the UK General Election effect

I had mentioned previously on this Forum about the effect the Election had on the UK Pound back at the last election in May 2010.

It was the first time we faced a coalition for ages and with that uncertainty after the World Wide recession of 2008 / 9 - the Pound was very volatile at the 2010 election with the GU moving over 600 pips in the day and the GJ moving over 1000 pips.

I will always remember that day - not just because of the election - but because I had a very good trading day - money wise - but nothing in comparison to a a guy I got to befriend through our daughters being in the same class at school. I don't want to name him - but after a very successful business career he sold his businesses out in 2006 /7 and made personally well over $200 million.

He decided to retire ( only in his 40's ) and spend time persuing his love of gambling - (one of his "edge's" being a photographic memory ) and now spends at least 6 trips a year in Vegas - he loves the tables and fruit machines as well as the financial market.

He placed approx £1200 a pip through Barclay's Capital on GU buy and in just one day made approx £450k - with his risk being approx £150K ( nothing when you have an annual gambling budget of £12 million I suppose ).

So - I remembered May 2010 and thought this year with the General Election - we are bound to get some good movements on the pound - but a lot will depend on the result.

I had mentioned in my Intraday Thread - that if it was going to be a Labour win - backed up by the SNP assisting them to govern - then the Pound would fall - maybe like a stone for a few hundred pips - as the Banks and markets would no way like that.

Lets have a look at the GU 2 weeks prior to the Election -

We had over a 500 pips rise up to the start of May - check key Times marked as well

With the Polls saying 90% sure it would be Coalition again - there was a lot of uncertainty - with the Tories and Labour only a few percentage points between them - but neither looked like getting an overall majority.

Enter the conspiracy theorists - the polls were wrong - the public had been lying or misleading the pollsters - or had the pollsters been deceiving us.???

Trouble was - so many polls agreed - neither Labour or the Tories could get an overall majority.

So first week into May and the GU falls - see next chart and note Key Times and what happened on Election day

We did not get 600 pip movements - not shown the GJ or GA - but similar larger moves - but for me the market makers certainly knew before the exit poll came on general release that the latest more realistic polls showed the Tories way out in front.

7 20 pm - or 19 20 pm as shown on the 24 hr chart clock was the real clue for me - but 10 00 am just confirmed it - the Pound wanted to rise on good news for the markets.

More to follow -

 

[Forexmospherian]

Mid May 2015 and the EU

This is how the EU looked on my chart pre 10 00 am Friday 15th

Thing changed over Lunchtime and then in the afternoon - we saw the following

I have marked what I call the bearish Price Structure ( PS ) and then in the afternoon - the bullish PS

Basically a 100 pip drop over 6 hrs or so - then a 140 pip rise over 7+ hrs

For the main week it was like this on my 5 min chart

Approx 340+ pip rise during the week up to high on Friday evening around 1465 ish

We know now we need under 1310 and 1300 to drop out of the main intraday bull bias - and even then if we drop another 200 + pips - we can still remain in the weekly up bias structure.

So this week - more buying and selling daily on the EU - and whether we make over 1500 and 1600 or drop under 1200 - I really dont mind either way - as I will be there banking green pips

Have a good week

Regards


F