Eur-Usd SL demo trades

[bansir]

Bit better today.
Just went through the process, nothing emotional.
Both entry and exit seemed to work out ok.

The chart tells the story really...

One thing I did as an extra measure was drop down to the 15 min chart
to check if there was a divergence there too. There was, so I had
extra confidence in taking the trade.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,
No trades for me today. I had to go over and clear out my mums' loft.
I should have stayed home; I finished up putting my foot straight through the ceiling.

Unfortunately I also missed a nice positive divergence trade available on Eur-Usd early on.
Just one of those days.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,
I haven't managed to take any trades all week.
I couldn't see any divergences and the ones that did
appear, I missed.
I had a chance today to play a PDB on Eur-Usd.
The down trend looked strong and an earlier divergence had failed so i wasn't looking for a strong reversal. Just thought I could take a few pips on the corrections back towards the trend.
I was late in on the first trade and could only squeeze 15 pips before hitting the trend line, T1 and over head resistance.
The next entry long was a guess but I figured that the original support at the previous low might provide a bounce.
I offloaded half the position as soon as the price started to stall and so took +17 pips.
Happily the remaining lot went all the way back to T1 where I was able to close for +43 pips.
I'm not sure if it's wise to trade during or approaching US holiday periods but I seemed to get away with it.

Can't seem to upload the chart. I'll try again later.
I'll see if the url ref will work:

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi,
I passed on the early positive divergence. Life would have been simpler if I had gone for it.
The price just looked too choppy when viewed close up as it unfolded.

Managed to come out with +55 pips after playing some trades around the NDT and also experimenting with position sizing.
I think I'm reading the price action a little better (in fits and starts) although I did mess up once or twice.
Here's the chart...

 

[bansir]

Hi,
Thought I'd have a bash with this Eur-Jpy negative divergence.
It was very late for me but I felt quite awake so I allowed myself a trade with small lot size.
Entry was on the SMA(12) break.
I tried using S/R along with Fibs for the exit. Initially I was thinking S/R 1 would be the
place but it cracked and I closed on the next Fib level for +47 pips.

I'll put a link to the chart in later on; upload isn't working at the moment.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Chart for previous post:

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,
Mini discipline melt-down on the first five trades.
I was late into the NDT 1 set up and that made me nervous. A casual approach and poor / none existent planning all added up to stack the odds against success.

I finally managed to acknowledge that my head was all wrong and took a break.
Took the dog out for a good walk.

Came back in the afternoon and took just one trade off NDT 2 closing half for +25 and
the other half for +5.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Escape from Windows

Hi All,
Nothing to do directly with the demo trades but I've finally broken away from
Microsoft Windows.:clap::clap::clap:
I can now demo trade from Linux / Ubuntu distribution.

Fantastic! No longer having to suffer Microsoft's endless uninvited meddling about
with MY computer.

Just in case anyone is interested, I'm running MT4 under 'WINE'. It's not perfect
but it's pretty darn good.
Oanda demo also runs no problem, being Java based.
Just got to set the email system up and job done. Ahhh... the relief.

Sorry for off topic post, thought it might be of interest though between trades.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Rambles, Reflections and Plans

Hi Folks,
Seems like a good time to take a break.
I've run into a fairly turbulent time both with trading and life / work etc.


On the trading front I've been adjusting my approach, trying to add to and improve on things which I have found to work for me. The idea of supplementing the basic Eur/Usd 5min RSI divergence trading with alternative systems has been on my mind for some time.

I now have two other basic systems under test but managing and tracking results has proved a challenge. Factors such as a change of trading platform and computer operating system have also unsettled the rhythm I had established. The loss of routine has impacted my posting of trades and charts and my record keeping. I seem to have got to the point where I feel things are working well but I can't prove it with hard stats. My records are useless; they reflect a mix of different things which I have experimented with.

I'm going to work on the administrative part of my trading over Christmas, take a look at how I can improve my record keeping. The basic idea I have is to clean things up and set up three separate accounts within the MT4 platform and use each to measure the performance of the three systems.

To aid consistency I'll keep posting the standard 5 min RSI divergence trades here as per the original intention for the thread.

If I can demonstrate reasonable results as we move forward into next year I will maybe consider opening a real account for one of the systems, trading only micro or mini lots. I know going live will bring a whole pile of baggage with it so I really need to prepare properly before moving on.

On the whole demo trading wise, it's been a really educational and fascinating year since the initial foray (late 2007) into things like 'Buy Zone' and 'Horizontal Lines'.
Many thanks to Trendie, JTrader and many other T2W members for feedback, encouragement and reality checks.

All the best for Christmas and the New Year, see you further down the log.
Neil

 

[bansir]

A couple of charts

Hi all,
I've had a good month on demo. With care I should end the month well into positive pips.
I have had some good trades and some very bad ones but I seem to be able to win around
56% of the time so with careful control of losses I can obtain a positive equity curve.

My record keeping is still poor and my trading plans need re-writing so much work has to be done.


RE-EXITS
I've found a fairly effective method of letting my profits run, which was always a major problem for me.

What you do is, if the price goes in your favour then close half the position and lock in some profits as it stretches away from the SMA.
* This means that the price then has to move against you twice the distance to just take you back to break-even. Great!!
Just trail your stop the other side of the SMA on the remaining half. Easy.

just to get back into the swing of things, here's a couple of charts from today which
illustrate the above comments.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi all,
I couldn't see any trades yesterday and decided to sit the day out.
In the evening however I had a discipline melt-down and started 'experimenting'.
-81 pips later I decided to switch off the PC and walk away.

I have followed this behavior pattern before and it has often destroyed weeks or even months of gains. At least this time I recognised the problem.

I had a better day today following by the rules with my standard book of tricks.
I came out with +739 pip(ette)s trading mini lots so equiv. to 73.9 standard lot pips.

One technique which really has made a difference is closing half the position as soon as I
have a decent profit. I then just let the remaining half ride behind the SMA or until it comes back to my original entry level.

I've had a positive month and the account is up +14.8%
Some other stats :
profit trades: 75, loss trades 59
Av. win=£15.55 Av. loss = -£13.41
largest profit trade = £86.35 largest loss trade = -£51.08
biggest drawdown was -£145.39

Best Regards,
Neil

Here's today's chart:

 

[bansir]

Mostly Harmless?

Hi Folks,
I was a bit apprehensive this morning; new month, fresh start. I didn't want to throw all January's good work down the pan. Could I trust myself?

Well, Eur-Gbp looked to be in a nice trend on the 1 minute chart so I thought I would hang
around the screen to see what happens.
No RSI divergence as such but both the trend line and S/R were punched through fairly strongly. I put a stop in just above S/R and went short 0.4 lots.
I closed 0.2 as soon as I had a few pips on the table for +81. Then I just let the rest ride until the SMA was breached. Closed at +157. Nice start- <smug mode ON>.

I didn't trade again until I got home. Unfortunately my evening trades were less well planned and I had a slight loss of discipline, refusing to cut losses promptly and admit I was wrong.
I lost -238 in just 3 trades. See 2nd chart.

Went and got a cup of tea and re-grouped. Nice clean RSI divergence formed but I missed
the early move off this. I got in later and re-gained pips but I'm not happy with the way I did it. Lots of poor discipline etc. See 3rd chart.

After all the dust has settled I think it's <smug mode OFF> and I'll have to settle for a 'mostly harmless' rating today.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Cut your losses short

Hi all,
Charts from today.

I need to cut my losses short.

The middle chart is a bit of a mess but illustrates the above.

The last chart, I was lucky but it could so easily have gone the other way.
I need to make sure and place hard stops with all trades.

I finished the day somehow slightly ahead.

Hope these help someone out there if only to see how not to do it ...

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,
Here's a trade from yesterday.
Nothing spectacular but I got some self control back so quite pleased with it.

 

[bansir]

Thanks TD

Thanks to Trader Dante for this one. The pin along with pivot line gave me confidence to go short. Took the exit as the green SMA(12) was crossed.

Squeezed 222 pipettes out of the move, about £60 on a 0.4 lot size.

Couple of interesting features on this one.
** Notice how support at 1.27827 is confirmed by RSI divergence and upper resistance is confirmed by the pivot line resistance / pin combination. Looks like we've got a channel !

** Also see how 1.27827 is re-tested just before my exit. I was aware that there was a strong possibility of a bounce in that region due to the earlier divergence.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

oops - wrong button!

Hi Folks
Just one fairly short session for me today.
Had a bit of finger trouble with the 'place order' window.....

The first short was a little late but the divergence was well defined so I thought the price may run down a few more pips.
I closed half as soon as I had some reasonable pipettess (+129) just to reduce overall risk.
The plan was to close the second half as the orange SMA (23) was touched.

I had the order window open and meant to close it but I closed the actual order instead by mistake. I got another 129 pipettes but was out of the position.

Now came the temptation to get back in. I decided to go back in short at around the same level but only to risk 0.2 lot size. I was promptly stopped out for -136 as the SMA(23) was touched.

I sat back and watched to see if the downward move would resume.
It did and I had a chance to go short again with 0.4 lot size. I closed the first half as soon
as I had 110 pipettes and let the other 0.2 lots run until price met the SMA(23).
Emerged with +230 pipettes on this trade and +352 overall.

Lesson for today...Know your trading software inside out and back to front.
Take care, concentrate.


Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Some trade snapshots

Hi Folks,
I've been looking to improve my record keeping and trade planning.

The best procedure I've found to date is to use brief hand written notes for each trade as it unfolds.
These can be entered directly into the journal / log and then used as an easy reference
for marking up charts on the PC later on.

For planning trades even on faster 1min charts, the essentials are tackled first.
Open the chart, have a good look over the key features and be aware of the longer term trends.
Mark in all key S/R and trend lines. Pay particular attention to any S/R pivots or indicator divergences which may be forming. Is the price under the SMA or above it? Is the SMA rising or falling?

The TA forms the framework for the trade plan. You can't even begin to think about a trade until this ground work is done.

Once the key TA is done then start to see if there is a possible set up available or if one is developing. The set up could be a range breakout, a trend line break, a divergence or pivot level break. If there's nothing obvious to see then the game is off.

If there is a set up, next question is can I afford to play it?
I draw in the stop level, work out the position size keeping the potential loss within budget. I try to offer stops some form of protection if at all possible, tucking them behind S/R levels or recent lows.

I've stopped using targets for exits. I just use a simple MA's now, exiting as the price retraces into them. I'll use either the SMA(12) or SMA(23) depending on how choppy the price action is.

Once the stop is in place on the chart I wait for the entry level to be reached and then enter the trade plus stop level on the order ticket and click the submit button.

If things go well I will take half the trade off as soon as the price moves above the entry level by the same amount that the entry level is above the stop level.
This reduces rewards for the remaining half but also reduces risk; the price has to swing back all the way to my stop to take me out for net break even.
Once things are moving and the second half of the trade starts to clock up pips, I'm kept very busy managing the stop level and watching out for any regions where problems may occur.

If the trade doesn't work I take the hit at the stop and mark it down as part of the cost of trading.

I've also started taking screen shots of my trades as they progress. I think this gives more information and captures events as they happen rather than relying on my selective memory.

Here are my two sets of screen shots from today. Each set of four (a to d) is a single entry following a set up but with two exits as per my comments above. Nothing spectacular I'm afraid but it's just to map out the process.

Just to keep things clear, I'll include the first set here with the second set to follow in my next post.

 

[bansir]

Second set of four

Hi,
Please see previous post.
Thanks
Neil

 

[rtsurvivor]

Hi Neil. It's good to see that you create a plan before placing your trades. It's surprising how many don't even know what a trading plan is.

That was my 1st rule of trading when I was an active trader in the commodity markets. I'm relativity new to the FOREX markets but "Plan Your Trade. Trade Your Plan" still holds. :clap:

Luck to you

RT... :clover:

 

[bansir]

Hi Neil. It's good to see that you create a plan before placing your trades. It's surprising how many don't even know what a trading plan is.

That was my 1st rule of trading when I was an active trader in the commodity markets. I'm relativity new to the FOREX markets but "Plan Your Trade. Trade Your Plan" still holds. :clap:

Luck to you

RT... :clover:

Hi RT,
Thanks for your comments; it's great to get some positive feedback.

Over time I'm afraid I have developed some pretty bad habits in terms of planning and record keeping.
I'm now finding it a real battle to get back on track but I have to get this aspect sorted out before considering any live trades.

Good luck RT with your forex trading.
Very Best Regards,
Neil