But when you add in the transaction costs - spread/commission - you may well easily end up a net loser as opposed to break even. Break even sounds like a pretty good result for this random entry trigger mullarkey.
Breakeven (ignoring transaction costs) is exactly what you'd expect from any random system. You can take your pick of having loads of small winners v a few large losers, or a few large winners eroded away by many small losing trades.
Losts of small winners is clearly far better from a marketing perspective as it appeals to idiots who believe they can sit down for an hour a day and scalp 5 pips each and every day (until the 1st loser hits em, when they inevitably resort to doubling up
)
The question to be asked is this, does "momentum" as defined by the direction of the 1 hour bar give an edge ?. Well given that one of the dataum points (the line) is random, intuitively I'd expect it not to be so. I'd also argue that a "bar" is a completely arbitary construct and pretty much meaningless anyway, so comparing price at one randomly selected point in time, with a randomly selected price is laughable
I could very easily blow TRO's statistics completely out of the water, but I'm not going to as it reveals part of my edge
I'm not denying that the system can be traded with discretion, although why you'd wish to deliberately wish to handicap yourself by picking an arbitary entry, exit, and risk management strategy is completely beyond me. The ONLY way that TRO (and his other alias's) is going to prove this works is by making some live calls. This it might go up, it might go dow, I might have to think about closing nonsense has gone quite far enough.
I'm not having a go at TRO and his crew, they've a living to make, and they're just exploiting an inefficiency and weakness in the system. The admin and mods at T2W however should hang their heads in shame, whilst simultaneously patting themselves on the back for providing such quality entertainment
