bansir
Well-known member
- Messages
- 494
- Likes
- 42
bansir
Well-known member
- Messages
- 494
- Likes
- 42
EUR-GBP
Tue 14-Jul-09
Here's a flawed trade, but maybe it throws some light on certain aspects
worth consideration.
chart a
-------
I was looking to play the breakout from T1.
The hourly trend was down so I was waiting for an opportunity to
go short.
A potential setup apppeared as T1 developed; I could consider a
short entry if price broke below the T1 line.
However, a few things weren't quite right .
1. First there was no negative divergence of RSI against price.
2. RSI was not overbought, >70 at any stage. In fact it was
meandering along around mid-range.
3.The timing.... US session was about to start.
I was so fixed on making the trade, I refused to acknowledge
any of these facts.
Chart b
-------
I jumped into the trade at 13:28, short 0.5 lots at 0.85730
I was quickly into profit with my stop above the fast SMA's
Chart c
-------
US session starts and I'm stopped out at 0.85743
-1.3 pips so not the end of the world.
Chart d
-------
Sideways price move continues after things settle down again.
Notes..
Be aware of session period starts.
Don't become too fixated on making the trade, acknowledge what the
conditions are. Maintain awareness.
Best Regards,
Neil
Tue 14-Jul-09
Here's a flawed trade, but maybe it throws some light on certain aspects
worth consideration.
chart a
-------
I was looking to play the breakout from T1.
The hourly trend was down so I was waiting for an opportunity to
go short.
A potential setup apppeared as T1 developed; I could consider a
short entry if price broke below the T1 line.
However, a few things weren't quite right .
1. First there was no negative divergence of RSI against price.
2. RSI was not overbought, >70 at any stage. In fact it was
meandering along around mid-range.
3.The timing.... US session was about to start.
I was so fixed on making the trade, I refused to acknowledge
any of these facts.
Chart b
-------
I jumped into the trade at 13:28, short 0.5 lots at 0.85730
I was quickly into profit with my stop above the fast SMA's
Chart c
-------
US session starts and I'm stopped out at 0.85743
-1.3 pips so not the end of the world.
Chart d
-------
Sideways price move continues after things settle down again.
Notes..
Be aware of session period starts.
Don't become too fixated on making the trade, acknowledge what the
conditions are. Maintain awareness.
Best Regards,
Neil
Attachments
bansir
Well-known member
- Messages
- 494
- Likes
- 42
eur-usd-14-jul-09a
Here's a couple of nice RSI divergence failure setup's from last week.
You really need to see a strong trend to establish for these to work well.
The actual failure point can get you in early but you have to watch out
for false failures too. Allow a little bit of margin to be sure the divegence has
failed.
I like to keep an eye o the hourly chart to establish trend. Also check to
see where price is relative to the session start.
1. Hourly is trading down and price is below session start.
Look to short.
2. The SMA's cross (Left most blue circle)
3. A PDB forms.
4. It fails
Go short with a stop above recent highs.
5. Trail stop behind SMA's or exit when RSI<30 or 20.
Another PDB failure occurs shortly after.Apply the same procedure.
Unfortunately I missed both of these moves and in my frustration finished up
losing 8 pips basically mucking around in the circled area on the right.
Note: If you've missed the trade, wait for another good setup.
Don't let frustration dictate you're actions.
Best Regards,
Neil
Here's a couple of nice RSI divergence failure setup's from last week.
You really need to see a strong trend to establish for these to work well.
The actual failure point can get you in early but you have to watch out
for false failures too. Allow a little bit of margin to be sure the divegence has
failed.
I like to keep an eye o the hourly chart to establish trend. Also check to
see where price is relative to the session start.
1. Hourly is trading down and price is below session start.
Look to short.
2. The SMA's cross (Left most blue circle)
3. A PDB forms.
4. It fails
Go short with a stop above recent highs.
5. Trail stop behind SMA's or exit when RSI<30 or 20.
Another PDB failure occurs shortly after.Apply the same procedure.
Unfortunately I missed both of these moves and in my frustration finished up
losing 8 pips basically mucking around in the circled area on the right.
Note: If you've missed the trade, wait for another good setup.
Don't let frustration dictate you're actions.
Best Regards,
Neil
Attachments
bansir
Well-known member
- Messages
- 494
- Likes
- 42
Bit of a strange trade for me this one.
I was looking at the hourly candle chart to assess trend direction
and noticed a couple of things.
1. Price was trading well above the London session start (yellow
line). Look for longs.
2. An inside bar had formed over the last hour offering potential
to look foe a long entry on the 1 min chart. See chart 0)
Flipping to chart 1 (1-min) :-
I couldn't see any nice divergence setup developing on the 1 min chart
so I decided to split it up into hourly chunks and just play long on a
break of the hourly high.
I set a manual stop at the SMA(60) and was in the trade fairly quickly
as the hourly IB high was taken out.
I was stopped out at the SMA(60) just 6 minutes later for -8.7 pips.
Chart 2:-
I got back in long as the IB high was re-taken.
I was not terribly keen on doing this; I couldn't tell for sure if I
was just wanting to be proved right. The price action off the SMA(60)
did look okay though.
The price did ride away north after some hesitation.
Chart 3
I just ran my stop up behind the SMA(60)
I took my exit before the stop was hit at 1.64356 for +49.9 pips.
Notes:
1. The RSI never went overbought during this nice move. This usually hints
at the strength of the underlying trend.
2. The trade was off my main system; I usually just trade RSI divergences with
some form of confirmation.
3. I'm still not sure it was wise to go back in after being stopped out; was
I just reacting to my earlier loss?
4. This was my most profitable trade of the week and more than covered all
previous losses. My stop loss management is looking okay I think.
Best Regards,
Neil
I was looking at the hourly candle chart to assess trend direction
and noticed a couple of things.
1. Price was trading well above the London session start (yellow
line). Look for longs.
2. An inside bar had formed over the last hour offering potential
to look foe a long entry on the 1 min chart. See chart 0)
Flipping to chart 1 (1-min) :-
I couldn't see any nice divergence setup developing on the 1 min chart
so I decided to split it up into hourly chunks and just play long on a
break of the hourly high.
I set a manual stop at the SMA(60) and was in the trade fairly quickly
as the hourly IB high was taken out.
I was stopped out at the SMA(60) just 6 minutes later for -8.7 pips.
Chart 2:-
I got back in long as the IB high was re-taken.
I was not terribly keen on doing this; I couldn't tell for sure if I
was just wanting to be proved right. The price action off the SMA(60)
did look okay though.
The price did ride away north after some hesitation.
Chart 3
I just ran my stop up behind the SMA(60)
I took my exit before the stop was hit at 1.64356 for +49.9 pips.
Notes:
1. The RSI never went overbought during this nice move. This usually hints
at the strength of the underlying trend.
2. The trade was off my main system; I usually just trade RSI divergences with
some form of confirmation.
3. I'm still not sure it was wise to go back in after being stopped out; was
I just reacting to my earlier loss?
4. This was my most profitable trade of the week and more than covered all
previous losses. My stop loss management is looking okay I think.
Best Regards,
Neil
Attachments
bansir
Well-known member
- Messages
- 494
- Likes
- 42
back to hard stops?
These two Eur-Usd trades from Monday weren't too clever.
On the first one I tried to repeat last Friday's success with the hourly IB break, looking for a nice entry long on the 1min chart.
The second trade was a straight PDB divergnce set up.
In both trades I lacked the discipline to stick to my plan. This will catch me out unless I can
bring it under control. I did manage to wriggle out relatively unscathed this time.
Finished just -6.8 on the first one and BE on the second trade.
Note:
Must stick to the plan, kill losing trades promptly and move on.
Best Regards,
Neil
These two Eur-Usd trades from Monday weren't too clever.
On the first one I tried to repeat last Friday's success with the hourly IB break, looking for a nice entry long on the 1min chart.
The second trade was a straight PDB divergnce set up.
In both trades I lacked the discipline to stick to my plan. This will catch me out unless I can
bring it under control. I did manage to wriggle out relatively unscathed this time.
Finished just -6.8 on the first one and BE on the second trade.
Note:
Must stick to the plan, kill losing trades promptly and move on.
Best Regards,
Neil
