Eur-Usd SL demo trades

[rtsurvivor]

Hi neil. I looked at the same trade this morning. This is how I seen it.

I'm trying out a couple of new indicators i came across. For the most part they are ok. But, they are still in the testing stage. You have to use a bit of judgement and indicators that support the up/down arrows.

Two questions.

1. Did you spot the 123 Down pattern just before the break down this morning? There's a grn arrow - yellow arrow - grn arrow at the 3 points of the pattern. The yellow arrow is pointing at the #2 point.
2. How do you get the thumbnail pics to work? I'd much rather post the thumbnails. :cheesy:

A NOTE: I've also got a new EA that I'm trying. It does the trading for me. I'll post the forward results as I go this coming month.

Good trading
RT... :idea:

 

[bansir]

Hi neil. I looked at the same trade this morning. This is how I seen it.

I'm trying out a couple of new indicators i came across. For the most part they are ok. But, they are still in the testing stage. You have to use a bit of judgement and indicators that support the up/down arrows.

Two questions.

1. Did you spot the 123 Down pattern just before the break down this morning? There's a grn arrow - yellow arrow - grn arrow at the 3 points of the pattern. The yellow arrow is pointing at the #2 point.
2. How do you get the thumbnail pics to work? I'd much rather post the thumbnails. :cheesy:

A NOTE: I've also got a new EA that I'm trying. It does the trading for me. I'll post the forward results as I go this coming month.

Good trading
RT... :idea:

Hi RT,
Thanks for your chart and comments.
I did notice a couple of 1-2-3 type patterns yesterday. I was always looking to play bounces from oversold divergences though and so disregarded the initial trend line break, the s/r break and the 1-2-3 patterns. The price action was really trying to tell me something, I just chose to ignore it.

I'm not sure, looking at your chart if my 1-2-3's were correct or not.
I've attached a chart with them marked on. Maybe you could take a look and check them for me.

Regards thumbnail images. I think that perhaps you may be posting URL links to your images rather than uploading the actual image?
What I do is upload the actual image in compact .PNG or .JPG format to T2W's site. There's a 'manage attachments' button you can use to do this when creating your post. The button is usually just off the bottom of the screen on my system so I have to scroll down to see it. Hope this helps.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[rtsurvivor]

Hi Neil. You have both 123 Dn patterns marked right. The 1st pattern or the 2nd pattern would have worked just fine. (See Chart Attachment.) The 1st would not have been triggered before the break down and the 2nd one would have gotten in a bit sooner. :smart:

What qualifies both is the the break below zero on the MACD If the MACD wasn't breaking down in support of the patterns I would pass on this sort of trade. Some of the oscillators, Stochastics, RSI, and other similar ones may also help.

My point is this. If the indicators are diverging from the price pattern breakout (price going down and indicator going up) then the price pattern does not qualify as being valid.

ie:

1. Price pattern breaks to up side. Indicators must be moving up.
2. Price Pattern breaks to down-side, Indicators must be moving down.

In this case you put in a SELL STOP at the #2 (or maybe slightly below) and keep an eye on the indicators. The S/L is normally the #3 point and then trail it.

Good trading
RT... :clover:

 

[bansir]

Hi Neil. You have both 123 Dn patterns marked right. The 1st pattern or the 2nd pattern would have worked just fine. (See Chart Attachment.) The 1st would not have been triggered before the break down and the 2nd one would have gotten in a bit sooner. :smart:

What qualifies both is the the break below zero on the MACD If the MACD wasn't breaking down in support of the patterns I would pass on this sort of trade. Some of the oscillators, Stochastics, RSI, and other similar ones may also help.

My point is this. If the indicators are diverging from the price pattern breakout (price going down and indicator going up) then the price pattern does not qualify as being valid.

ie:

1. Price pattern breaks to up side. Indicators must be moving up.
2. Price Pattern breaks to down-side, Indicators must be moving down.

In this case you put in a SELL STOP at the #2 (or maybe slightly below) and keep an eye on the indicators. The S/L is normally the #3 point and then trail it.

Good trading
RT... :clover:

Hi RT,
Tried out the 1-2-3's today.
First trade stopped out @ +1, second trade stopped out for -20 and third trade I closed for +39.

I used RSI trend-line breaks and S/R's etc as supporting evidence.

My exit on the last trade was way too early and nervous; the move went on for many more pips. This is something I'm working on.

Thanks for the 1-2-3 tips though; it's been a real eye-opener for me.
I took another counter-trend trade based on RSI/PDB alone later on for +9 but this isn't on the chart. It would have made a better exit signal for the last 1-2-3 trade.

I'm all done for the day on +29 pips

Here's the chart:

 

[bansir]

Hi -quick post, gotta go do some work...
Not too good yesterday; the chart shows the story.
My 1-2-3 was very flakey.

 

[bansir]

Hi,
Hi Folks,
Not too bad in the end today; hit a bit of a home run on the last trade, +73 pips.
The set up on that one was nice. I found that I could mark some areas on the chart
before the price got there. I wasn't predicting what the price would do but just putting down markers to plan what I could do if things moved that way.

I need to be patient and wait for more like those. It was very similar to my best set up from last week which gave +74 pips.

The charts a bit busy but I had loads of things to get down.
I tried using a buy limit order + stop order/ take profit order for the 1-2-3 / PDB combo.
I was stopped out on that one though for -26 --- ouch.

I finished +39 pips up on the day and +94 up on the week.

Here's the chart:

 

[bansir]

Hi All,
I took no trades yesterday. Kept having a glance at the screen but just couldn't see anything on.
Just one trade today, took +27 pips on a nice set-up. Sort of a 1-2-3 / NDT hybrid.
The initial stop was a bit wide at 32 pips risk. So R:R was not so good.
My exit was, for want of a better word 'unprofessional'.
I need to work on this aspect.

Anyway, here's the chart....

 

[bansir]

Hi,
No trades for me yesterday.
Had a go today with a long position off a fairly thin PDB.
The first attempt was stopped out for -18 pips, the full risk. I was a little edgy getting back in with a slightly higher risk of 22 pips but it came good reasonably quickly.
I closed on a whim really for +26 pips, I was lucky this time.

It's better to only take decent looking set ups with supporting confirmation which was lacking on this occasion. No damage done this time but not really happy with the way I went about things.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Jut 3 trades yesterday from a late PDB setup.
Maybe shouldn't have got involved; the price moves were quite wide and the spread
was 3 to 4 pips.
It was a bit late for me as well, not the best scenario.
Anyway, the PDB did look good so I went in as the momentum slowed.
I was stopped out for the full risk on the first trade @ -31 pips.
Almost switched off after that but the move still looked good so risked over 40 pips
on the next trade -- not good.
Closed that one for just 9 pips; I really hadn't accepted the risk on the trade and I was really just looking to scrape a few pips back off the earlier loss.
The price broke T1 and so I managed another long but this time with a lower risk of 24 pips.
For some reason I just couldn't keep my cool and jumped out for just 22 pips.
I would have been better off standing aside this time round.

Chart attached:

 

[bansir]

Just couldn't get anything right today.
Even failed to identify PDB 1 which would have prevented the first two shorts.

The day comprised mostly losing trades with just a couple of break evens thrown in.
I almost closed the 3rd trade for a reasonable 22 pips or so but I even allowed that one to become a loser in the end.
I shouldn't have placed the last 2 trades, the market was trying to tell me the direction but I just didn't read it; I was probably refusing to be wrong.
Never mind, maybe I can get back on track tomorrow. I think I will be a little more careful with my
interpretation of the chart though.

 

[rtsurvivor]

Hi Neil. I'm not all that good with system trading. I'm sure there is something in your chart that says buy me or sell me but I can't find it.

However, I did spot two 123 patterns that turned out pretty good.
The 1st 123UP is just above the red PDB1 that looks like it said sell.
the 2nd 123 Down is just above Green PDB2 that says buy.

I think that's why I don't trade systems all that often. I am working on one that has an indicator that changes color to signal a buy/sell. It's only in the testing stage so it will be a bit before I take on some actual risks.

I still favor the basic price patterns. :whistling

Good trading
RT... :clover:

 

[bansir]

Hi Neil. I'm not all that good with system trading. I'm sure there is something in your chart that says buy me or sell me but I can't find it.

However, I did spot two 123 patterns that turned out pretty good.
The 1st 123UP is just above the red PDB1 that looks like it said sell.
the 2nd 123 Down is just above Green PDB2 that says buy.

I think that's why I don't trade systems all that often. I am working on one that has an indicator that changes color to signal a buy/sell. It's only in the testing stage so it will be a bit before I take on some actual risks.

I still favor the basic price patterns. :whistling

Good trading
RT... :clover:

Hi RT,
Thanks for your response. My first mistake Yesterday was when I failed to spot PDB1
which would have at least told me "Don't sell" and may even have flagged me to "buy" as your 1-2-3 formed nicely.
I sold because I thought the price was going to break below the red support line but it bounced back up as confirmed by the PDB (which I missed) and your 1-2-3.
I missed the RSI divergence because I wasn't paying proper attention; only tend to look for them when RSI is overbought / oversold.

The later attempts to buy using PDB 2 were at odds with your 1-2-3 down and I really should have stood aside after my break even stops were taken out.
Divergence failures are often an indication of a larger underlying trend.

I tend to run into trouble with identifying 1-2-3 's ; I sometimes finish up finding them sort of nested inside each other and then I can't make up my mind which is the real one. I think I just need practice, it's my perception that's the problem.

The 1-2-3 patterns are definitely worth watching out for, thanks very much for flagging them up on here. I reckon that once I can identify good ones which are in harmony with the oscillator then I will have better results.
Good luck with your system development although you seem to do very well with the 1-2-3 patterns+oscillator.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory yesterday.
After a false start or two I had some success on the NDT trade eventually taking +62 pips. I jumped out a little early though; I couldn't bring myself to hold on for the buy limit to trigger. I was too anxious that the pips would melt away on a rebound.

The last 1-2-3 / PDB trade was the killer, I really should have closed it out when the move failed.
Instead I just left it on and hoped for the best. Took a -42 pip hit on that one.

Here's the chart....

 

[bansir]

Hi,
Just 2 trades today.
One based on S/R break with 1-2-3 pattern and RSI support.
It popped nicely and I just grabbed the pips. +25

Second one was a bit lucky; the price became a little choppy and at one stage it
looked like my stop (just below the green '3' ) was going to get taken out.
In the end I was offered a profitable exit so I took it, +24.

I quite like these quick in and out trades although It's nice if you can hang on to a
trend for better rewards.

Not sure if my 1-2-3's are correct but they seemed to work today when backed up by RSI divergences or support.

Perhaps the best play was NDT 2 but I failed to spot it.

Here's the chart....

 

[trendie]

good stuff, bansir.
dont know if you have already defined them, but what are exit rules?

What are your plans, regards to going live with this? as you seem to have achieved some degree of positive consistency.

 

[bansir]

good stuff, bansir.
dont know if you have already defined them, but what are exit rules?

What are your plans, regards to going live with this? as you seem to have achieved some degree of positive consistency.

Hi Trendie,
Thanks for your post.

Exits? Now you've got me.
I seem to have to adopt various exit strategies according to the conditions of the trade.
For instance, when long I may exit as price moves strongly away from the SMA and tests previously established resistance levels.

Others I have used: 1) rsi >70 or <30 2) Trail stop behind SMA(12) or recent lows / highs 3) RSI divergence against the position. 4) Exit when price has diverged well away from SMA(12)

Then there are the emotional exits.. a)Greed- Wow! grab those pips b)Fear- That moves going to turn any second better get out.
If I've been on a losing run I tend to just take the pips in order to break up the run and try and build confidence back.

Regards going live.... I've been thinking about it a lot. It's a big step; it takes me
out of 'game mode' even with small risks.
I do need to progress though.

Current theory is that I could perhaps consider running with an Oanda micro account.
Maybe they let you keep the demo account open.That way if I were sliced up occasionally, I could just retreat to demo mode until I found my feet.
I'll do a bit of research, get some numbers down to see what I could do.

Maybe a new thread would be in order? 'Eur-Usd Micro Trades' or something like that.

Very Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi,
I did fairly well in the afternoon following a poor opening trade which cost 19 pips.

I took 3 more trades based essentially on the same set up firing long from a positive
divergence on RSI and previous price support line.

The second trade was stopped out for +1 after I moved the stop up a little too quickly.
The third trade went well and had a sensible stop+risk . I just guessed on the exit though for +30 pips.

I'm not too keen on trading early evening but managed to make a reasonable trade on another break out from the same resistance line that I had used for the previous trade. Closed for +27 pips as RSI=70.

I couldn't see any 1-2-3 type signals but I'm not that good at spotting them.

As I type this, it looks as though I could have held on with the last trade for more pips or maybe even work another long position to take 20 or 30 pips. However, I've had enough for today.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi,
Bit of a struggle today.
I could read the PDB set up ok and even detected a 1-2-3 type formation but finding the correct entry proved tricky. I was away at a meeting when the 1-2-3 tripped. Very annoying ;I set the time of the meeting.

I could perhaps have set the trade up using a limit order. Never mind.

I came out with just +6 pips in the end but I was happy not to have chalked up a net loss
for the day.

One great feature of RSI is that since the divergence set ups depend on over bought or over sold conditions for entries then you're kept out of a very choppy sideways move as occurred later on in the day. (Following my last trade).
This is because since it's value depends on the ratio of average up closes to average down closes, it tends to hang around the 40-60 centre band while all the mayhem is happening.

Anyway, here's the chart:

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[rtsurvivor]

Hi Neil. The 123UP looked pretty good. You can set these up for entry with a BUY-STOP. A limit order isn't really all that good. In this case it would have been at #2 Buy-Limit. That's about the same as "Or Better" and that can get you in trouble some times.

I use something like this. Buy XXX/XXX X lots at 1.3422 Stop. This makes it a Good Til Canceled order and price has to hit 1.3422 before it can be triggered. Kind of a set and forget. :whistling

The #2 looks like it's at 1.3420 or so. The order is a couple of pips above the #2 point.

The RSI (14) you're using is a definite qualifier for the trade and it appears to be about a 50 or so pip gain for the trade.

Anyhow, that's how I trade price patterns.

A note: I don't trade the 5 minutes. I'm just not that fast any more.

Good trading

RT... :clover:

 

[bansir]

Hi Neil. The 123UP looked pretty good. You can set these up for entry with a BUY-STOP. A limit order isn't really all that good. In this case it would have been at #2 Buy-Limit. That's about the same as "Or Better" and that can get you in trouble some times.

I use something like this. Buy XXX/XXX X lots at 1.3422 Stop. This makes it a Good Til Canceled order and price has to hit 1.3422 before it can be triggered. Kind of a set and forget. :whistling

The #2 looks like it's at 1.3420 or so. The order is a couple of pips above the #2 point.

The RSI (14) you're using is a definite qualifier for the trade and it appears to be about a 50 or so pip gain for the trade.

Anyhow, that's how I trade price patterns.

A note: I don't trade the 5 minutes. I'm just not that fast any more.

Good trading

RT... :clover:

Hi RT,
I think what you are describing is the same 'set and forget' as is available using Oaanda
demo order tickets.
The order ticket window offers 2 tabs. Default tab is for a market order which can have an associated stop plus take profit level. The market order is usually filled straight away in normal circumstances.
The other tab is titled "limit order" and this allows you to set things up nicely once you have identified the 1-2-3. You can set the stop loss level, the take profit level and the level at which you want to enter the market. I guess you can get some slippage on the entry though which is perhaps what you're pointing out.
The stop and take profit orders aren't created by the system until your entry price is hit.
I've got the feeling I'm completely missing your point though. Sorry if that is the case. I've really only run with market orders until very recently.

Best Regards,
Neil