Eur-Usd SL demo trades

[bansir]

Hi Bansir,

Came upon this thread by chance.
After seeing your postings on TD's thread

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/26947-making-money-trading-234.html

I thought you were persevering with PinBar reversals

Have you given up on that or are you trading the method in this thread with a separate account ?

regards,

-- PB

Hi PB,
Thanks for the question. I've got a seperate demo account for Eur-Usd-5min trades.
I just love TD's thread though and I have learned a lot from it.

I think that you can play PinBars both as a part of both a reversal and a continuation strategy.
I have looked to try and integrate them into my Eur-Usd 5 min trading. They pop up very often but usually with little or no confluence so you have to be very careful to assess them in the context of the overall price action s/r, pivots etc..
I've been bitten a few times by just getting in based on the PinBar alone.

I also have a collection of hourly and daily charts set up specifically for PinBar demo trades but I seem to struggle with entries on longer time frames ; I'm forever waiting for just the right moment / signal. I tend to watch the trade opportunity come and go.

I've sort of got the opposite problem with 5 min charts where over trading is one of my demons.
Many thanks for your question.

Very Best Regards,
Neil

PS Here are todays Eur-Usd-5min Demo Trades.
Fairly poor I'm afraid, just picked up the crumbs. I really need to make days like this work if I'm going to stand any chance.

-5, +6, +5, 0

chart:

 

[bansir]

Eur-Usd Demo Trades

Just 2 pips today after 8 trades.
Managing not to over trade.
I let the best chance go on the very first trade.
No damage done but lucky to get away with some of the other decisions.

Here's the chart showing the formation of the sideways channel:

 

[bansir]

Eur-Usd Demo Trades

Started experimenting a bit but not really with any clear criteria or hypothesis so really it was just low grade messing about I'm afraid.

Aim to get back on track tomorrow.

-25 pips and 23 trades.

 

[bansir]

update

Here are the charts for Thursday 22nd and Friday 23rd May.

They're in different formats; I've had a spot of trouble with file corruption and had to mess around with my ancient scanner to recover the images.

Thursday I did -16 pips in 18 trades.
Friday I did -15 pips in 11 trades.

Of my total trades so far in May, 1/3 are winners and 2/3 are losers.
My average win is 5.6 pips and my average loss is 5.1 pips

I think there's room for improvement.

Here are the charts:

 

[bansir]

Trades today

Nibbled a bit back today.
Got inspired by JayJay's thread so I thought I'd have another look at RSI.
I've used it on my DOW charts for years but sort of got out of the habit of taking any notice of it.

Kept the over trading at bay; looked for solid setups using RSI divergences then traded the re-traces to the SMA(12).

Wound up +12 pips in 4 trades. Should have let the last trade run on a bit; could have got +15 or more from that one. You don't know this at the time of course.

You have to be careful with these trades; guessing the bottom region is fraught with problems, I still remember some lessons learned a good few years back.

I tried to hang fire on the entries until I had reasonable evidence that the turning point was past. On the other hand, you want your stop in a nice location, ideally below recent support. It all becomes a bit tricky.

Here's the chart:

 

[bansir]

Nice Entry set up on the first trade.
It had everything; SMA crossover+NDT+pin bar into previous s/r.
So I got in short and took +6
Just one problem- I jumped ship at +6 but there were 30 or 40 pips to be had.

Encouraging though- taking note of supporting evidence for entry setups appears v. powerful.

Predictably the subconcious frustration ate away at me and I followed up with a flurry of losing trades.
Some recovery towards the end.
So -11 pips in 9 trades.
Not too much damage but must let the winners run on a bit.

 

[bansir]

Eur-Usd Demo Trades

Here's yesterday's effort.
A losing day but I managed to actually stand aside during the choppy conditions. Maybe a little progress has been made?

Not too much damage again; just -4 pips in 3 trades.

 

[trendie]

While I admire your resolve and commitment, there has to be a point where you have to admit that your set-up is perhaps somewhat sub-optimal.

One of your strengths is taking small losses of around 5 pips. This number is arbitrary, and in volatile markets is noise.
Have you looked at putting your stop-loss at the "other end" of a wave? ie, when going long, putting your stop-loss at the last swing-low, and when short, at the last swing-high?
Some of the bars you are trading are bigger than 5 pips, so you may be taken out on noise.
have you looked at what would happen if your stop-loss was at swing-lows/highs?
at the very least, your strat would factor in price action, and a dynamic stop-loss reflective of the market behaviour, rather than just a number.

I am no expert at this, but even on my own 5-min system, I allow 15-20 pips!!
(this is not to say my rules are any better)

 

[bansir]

While I admire your resolve and commitment, there has to be a point where you have to admit that your set-up is perhaps somewhat sub-optimal.

One of your strengths is taking small losses of around 5 pips. This number is arbitrary, and in volatile markets is noise.
Have you looked at putting your stop-loss at the "other end" of a wave? ie, when going long, putting your stop-loss at the last swing-low, and when short, at the last swing-high?
Some of the bars you are trading are bigger than 5 pips, so you may be taken out on noise.

have you looked at what would happen if your stop-loss was at swing-lows/highs?
at the very least, your strat would factor in price action, and a dynamic stop-loss reflective of the market behaviour, rather than just a number.

I am no expert at this, but even on my own 5-min system, I allow 15-20 pips!!
(this is not to say my rules are any better)

Hi Trendie,
Thanks for taking time to give me some feedback, much appreciated.

I think sub-optimal is a kind way to describe my current set-ups
Funnily enough, I have been doing a little back testing using the RSI and SMA(12) combination and although so far I have very few results it has got me looking at using stops in a smarter way. The fixed 5 pip stop is a bit of a hang over from the buy zone I think.

On some of my back test trials I used 21 pip and 30 pip stops placed beyond recent highs and lows as you suggest. I then tried to reduce the stops / risk as new highs / lows appeared.

I have attached a couple of example charts. I used MT4, hand stepping through the chart one bar at a time to try and simulate the price action.

It's taken a while but I now realize I like systems which give very well defined entry set ups. Just as important for me with over trading in mind, is that such systems also tend to give good indication of when to stay out.

I didn't take any trades on Friday; no signals and it looked quite choppy to me.

Let's see what we can do through June; I feel the irrational, 'start of the month' optimism bubbling up inside.

Very Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Close, too close.

Didn't do much with respect to trading for most of the London session.
Just watched and waited, looking for a divergence play with the RSI.

The chart looks very busy though; the two trades I eventually placed threw up some beautiful challenges to my psychology.
On the chart, I've marked the first trade in green text and the second one in blue text.
It went something like this:
I see the PBD1 and look for a long with a stop just below the last low at 1.5491 the entry price gives me a 12 pip risk.

I trail the stop up, nice and steady but see that the trade has essentially worked and I am severely tempted to take +20 pips as the price stretches above the SMA(12).

I think "No, don't close out; just keep trailing the stop and let it run" but I really, really want to take those pips.
I stick to my guns and am stopped out for 0.

I now realize that I will be in a poor state mentally for any further trading.
The fact that I realize this is in fact progress of a sort.

I determine that the only way I will look at going in again is if I see solid, factual evidence that the turn-about is on with a weakening down side.
PDB 2 and the stong SMA(12) crossover persuade me back in.

So Trade number two, long at 1.5508 with a stop below the low of the entry candle, 11 pip risk.
Off we go again, I trail the stop and the market keeps offering +20 or more pips.
I turn down the pips and keep winding the stop up.

I wind the stop up and get taken out for + 8 whereupon the price rushes off to take the RSI overbought (my exit conditions) for what would have been 40+ pips.

I close the platform down, knowing that this time I am definitely in a bad mental state to consider any further trades / setups.

I made 8 pips but I am pretty disappointed; had I taken one of the +20 offerings I would have had a winner for near enough 1:1 RR. As it stands my winning trade only yields 0.75 R:R and that's just not going to cut the cake.

Well, I was at least glad that I had not been smacked for -12 by the 15:00 spike down.
As Elder says -in trading, learn to act in your own self interest. Or something like that.

Cheery Bye,
Neil

 

[bansir]

The psychology was easier today.
Opened up with 2 straight losses but managed to stay out after that.
Waited around with one eye on the chart window to see if another divergence was going to develop.

Gave up the ghost until I saw the break from congestion at 14:00.
Wham, RSI o v e r s o l d.
Nervous on the third trade entry using the PDB 1 divergence.
I was worried I had set the stop too tight and that another price dip may form.

Saw the +18 pips and thought "that'll do me", 1:1 RR on an otherwise poor performance.
I also felt that I certainly was unlikely to see an sharp retrace to offer 1:2 or 1:3 RR.
I admit too there was the feeling of relief at closing with some pips in my pocket. This is not good, I suppose.

-7 pips in 3 trades so still in the game.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Eur-Usd Demo Trades

Hi Folks,
No trades yesterday; No set ups available for me !

Took 3 trades today.

-6, 0, +6

Here's the chart:

 

[bansir]

latest effort

No trades on Friday; no setups available for me.

Trades for Monday 9th June:
2 trades -10 and +19 so just +9 pips for the day.
Could have done better on the second one. Fear of loss, I closed too quickly.

Here's the chart:


Best Regards,
Neil

 

[clive3300]

Regarding backtesting an idea - where can one get a stream of data at pip level (ie fine time resolution) going back days or weeks for a currency pair? I realise this is a lot of data, but surely essential to really try out a methodology.

 

[bansir]

Regarding backtesting an idea - where can one get a stream of data at pip level (ie fine time resolution) going back days or weeks for a currency pair? I realise this is a lot of data, but surely essential to really try out a methodology.

Hi Clive,
Thanks for your question.
I used North Finance demo account which is based on MT4 software.
There's loads of historical data available to try out your strats.
You can use 'F12' to step through the candles one at a time.

Hope this helps.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,
One trade set up available today.
It was a winner at +10 pips for 1 trade.

I'm not feeling very good about the trade though. Here's why:
I got out far too early, ran for cover fueled by fear. This gave me a poor return for my risk. 14 pips risk for 10 reward.
It's exactly this behaviour which is killing my account. It's not just 'nice' to close for a few more pips; its essential. Without a decent RR per trade, when the losers come they will be bigger than the net gains.

I need to learn to accept the risk when I enter the trade.

Here's the chart. It has few lines and mark ups compared with some I've put up but I think it highlights my problem very well.

 

[bansir]

Hi All,
Just one trade today for +13 pips.
The RR of 1.18 was just about ok I guess. (initial risk 11 pips.)

After I got out, the price moved down quickly so
the PDB failed in the end. I guess It pays to manage stops well
with these trades.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Eur-Usd demo trades

Hi,
Just one trade today.
+12 pips

I've stood on the side since last wednesday, waiting for a setup.
It's not been easy, just watching but I think it's kept me
out of trouble.

Today was a proper setup and it seemed to work ok.

I'm in positive pips for June but the worry is the poor RR ratio.
If I take the average reward to risk ratio for my winning tarades, it
only comes out at 1.2

A short losing run will quickly take this months gains back down.
Also I have 7 winning trades, 4 losing trades and 2 neutral so
I may be due 3 losers just to balance things up.

I'm in front but the lead is fragile.

Fairly happy with today's effort but it's still a too thin RR wise.

 

[bansir]

Just one trade again.
Stopped out at +1 just above break-even.

I could have closed for around 8 or 10 pips but I was holding out
hoping for 1.5500 to be crossed.
Also initial stop was risking 7 pips so I was looking for 14 or 21 pips return.
No damage done, see what tomorrow brings....

 

[bansir]

Hi,
Two trades today.
Both stopped out, -6 and -8 pips.
The peaks I used for the NDT set up were perhaps a little too
widely spaced with a 2 hour gap.
Still, some work and some don't so there you go.

See what comes around next week.
Maybe try a bit more back testing over the weekend.

Best Regards,
Neil