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Morning Update
15th February 2007
Three trades through the morning session for -10, +20, +20 for a net of +30 so far today, a nice mornings work.
News at 0930 and US numbers abound this afternoon, though I'm always wary of US days like this where there are so many announcements in a short space of time, the market never really gets time for good direction before another announcement comes along, but we'll see how it goes.
Dave
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
15th February 2007
Three trades through the morning session for -10, +20, +20 for a net of +30 so far today, a nice mornings work.
News at 0930 and US numbers abound this afternoon, though I'm always wary of US days like this where there are so many announcements in a short space of time, the market never really gets time for good direction before another announcement comes along, but we'll see how it goes.
Dave
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
Afternoon Update
15th February 2007
A further 8 trades today through the 0930/1330/1400/1415 news releases for +20, +5, 0, 0, +10, +20, -20, +20 for a net of +55 pips and +85pips on the day.
There's still US news due at 1700 which I'll trade.
Days like today make up for the days like a few weeks back when I had a -95 pip day and looking at the distribution of my results, there's a definite skew towards the positive rather than the negative, which proves my risk management approach must be working.
Cheers for now,
Dave.
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
15th February 2007
A further 8 trades today through the 0930/1330/1400/1415 news releases for +20, +5, 0, 0, +10, +20, -20, +20 for a net of +55 pips and +85pips on the day.
There's still US news due at 1700 which I'll trade.
Days like today make up for the days like a few weeks back when I had a -95 pip day and looking at the distribution of my results, there's a definite skew towards the positive rather than the negative, which proves my risk management approach must be working.
Cheers for now,
Dave.
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
Regulator2005
Junior member
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Dwaddell : Mate just read your first ever journal entry and its great to see you getting there after all the pain in the beginning. Keep it up and well done.
Regs
Regs
Afternoon Update
22nd February 2007
A further 2 trades off the 1330 for -10, 0 for a loss of -15 pips on the day.
Have now finished the backtesting on my DOW signals which I'll write some more on tommorow and start posting them live.
Dave
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
22nd February 2007
A further 2 trades off the 1330 for -10, 0 for a loss of -15 pips on the day.
Have now finished the backtesting on my DOW signals which I'll write some more on tommorow and start posting them live.
Dave
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
Update
23rd February 2007
The end of another week and a quiet Friday.
Six trades through the morning and 0930 news for -10, 0, -20, -5, 0, 10 for a net loss of -25pips today....a poor end to the week, but hey, thats the game we play.
Will be posting details of my live DOW daily signals at some point today, watch this space.
Dave
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
23rd February 2007
The end of another week and a quiet Friday.
Six trades through the morning and 0930 news for -10, 0, -20, -5, 0, 10 for a net loss of -25pips today....a poor end to the week, but hey, thats the game we play.
Will be posting details of my live DOW daily signals at some point today, watch this space.
Dave
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
DOW Daily Signals
23rd January 2007
Well, here we are, back with the revised version of my Daily DOW Signals which will operate as follows:
At the end of each DOW trading day, one of the following four signals will be issued:
1. Go Long
2. Go Short
3. Stay Long
4. Stay Short
This is designed as an 'always in the market' approach, so if we're long and I issue a Go Short signal, it means reverse the current long position to short, simple stuff.
The signal can only be computed at the end of each trading day and I'll try to issue it as soon after 9pm as possible as ideally you want to action the signal at the close, though over time the difference waiting until the next days open will throw in some advantages and some disadvantages in terms of overnight futures movement which will probably even out in the scheme of things.
Trading this with spread bets or futures, the current month contract should do, rolling dailies will also work but you have to then pay the cost for the roll on and factor this into the results.
Its a swing trading approach, between 1 and 10 days is the normal period between reversal of positions.
Average exposure during the test period is around 60 points, with no exposure greater than 160 points and indeed only creeping over the 100 point mark on 3 occasions.
Test period extends to the last 3-4 months, could back test further to start of 2006, but will go with it for now, seems to be consistent.
The methodology has not been optimised over a backtested period, it was an approach I thought of then tested, with positive results, so I've left it at that.
I wont be trading with any fixed stop in mind, the exposure is within my own risk tolerance, approach this aspect of it as you will.
This is purely for educational purposes and as a record of my own actions, follow it at your own risk.
Here's the breakdown for the tested period:
Trade Date B/S Price P and L
1 02/11/2006 B 12018
2 06/11/2006 S 12107 89
3 07/11/2006 B 12158 -51
4 09/11/2006 S 12103 -55
5 10/11/2006 B 12108 -5
6 13/11/2006 S 12131 23
7 15/11/2006 B 12252 -121
8 24/11/2006 S 12280 28
9 27/11/2006 B 12121 159
10 29/11/2006 S 12226 105
11 01/12/2006 B 12194 32
12 04/12/2006 S 12283 89
13 08/12/2006 B 12307 -24
14 19/12/2006 S 12471 164
15 20/12/2006 B 12463 8
16 21/12/2006 S 12421 -42
17 22/12/2006 B 12343 78
18 29/12/2006 S 12463 120
19 05/01/2007 B 12398 65
20 19/01/2007 S 12565 167
21 26/01/2007 B 12487 78
22 31/01/2007 S 12621 134
23 02/02/2007 B 12653 -32
24 08/02/2007 S 12637 -16
25 12/02/2007 B 12552 85
26 20/02/2007 S 12786 234
Total 1312 points with the current open trade in profit.
The signal for the close of trading on 22nd February was STAY SHORT, so we're still in that position.
Hope someone finds this interesting.
I will of course be continuing with my FX trading too, just adding another string to the bow as they say.
Cheers all,
Dave.
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
23rd January 2007
Well, here we are, back with the revised version of my Daily DOW Signals which will operate as follows:
At the end of each DOW trading day, one of the following four signals will be issued:
1. Go Long
2. Go Short
3. Stay Long
4. Stay Short
This is designed as an 'always in the market' approach, so if we're long and I issue a Go Short signal, it means reverse the current long position to short, simple stuff.
The signal can only be computed at the end of each trading day and I'll try to issue it as soon after 9pm as possible as ideally you want to action the signal at the close, though over time the difference waiting until the next days open will throw in some advantages and some disadvantages in terms of overnight futures movement which will probably even out in the scheme of things.
Trading this with spread bets or futures, the current month contract should do, rolling dailies will also work but you have to then pay the cost for the roll on and factor this into the results.
Its a swing trading approach, between 1 and 10 days is the normal period between reversal of positions.
Average exposure during the test period is around 60 points, with no exposure greater than 160 points and indeed only creeping over the 100 point mark on 3 occasions.
Test period extends to the last 3-4 months, could back test further to start of 2006, but will go with it for now, seems to be consistent.
The methodology has not been optimised over a backtested period, it was an approach I thought of then tested, with positive results, so I've left it at that.
I wont be trading with any fixed stop in mind, the exposure is within my own risk tolerance, approach this aspect of it as you will.
This is purely for educational purposes and as a record of my own actions, follow it at your own risk.
Here's the breakdown for the tested period:
Trade Date B/S Price P and L
1 02/11/2006 B 12018
2 06/11/2006 S 12107 89
3 07/11/2006 B 12158 -51
4 09/11/2006 S 12103 -55
5 10/11/2006 B 12108 -5
6 13/11/2006 S 12131 23
7 15/11/2006 B 12252 -121
8 24/11/2006 S 12280 28
9 27/11/2006 B 12121 159
10 29/11/2006 S 12226 105
11 01/12/2006 B 12194 32
12 04/12/2006 S 12283 89
13 08/12/2006 B 12307 -24
14 19/12/2006 S 12471 164
15 20/12/2006 B 12463 8
16 21/12/2006 S 12421 -42
17 22/12/2006 B 12343 78
18 29/12/2006 S 12463 120
19 05/01/2007 B 12398 65
20 19/01/2007 S 12565 167
21 26/01/2007 B 12487 78
22 31/01/2007 S 12621 134
23 02/02/2007 B 12653 -32
24 08/02/2007 S 12637 -16
25 12/02/2007 B 12552 85
26 20/02/2007 S 12786 234
Total 1312 points with the current open trade in profit.
The signal for the close of trading on 22nd February was STAY SHORT, so we're still in that position.
Hope someone finds this interesting.
I will of course be continuing with my FX trading too, just adding another string to the bow as they say.
Cheers all,
Dave.
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
Morning FX Update
26th February 2007
Five trades through the morning on what is a quiet day news wise for -5, 0, 0, 0, +20.
Ending the day there for +15 pips, have many chores to do today, starting with putting up some new shelves in my trading office, so that'll keep me busy.
Look out for another DOW signal at the close today.
Dave
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
26th February 2007
Five trades through the morning on what is a quiet day news wise for -5, 0, 0, 0, +20.
Ending the day there for +15 pips, have many chores to do today, starting with putting up some new shelves in my trading office, so that'll keep me busy.
Look out for another DOW signal at the close today.
Dave
'Inner peace, it works for me.'
www.dwaddell.co.uk
