Dow 2007

[2468steve]

LL does cash settle at the official closing price ? If so this trade should work ....
if spread on closing then perhaps not

cash would settle at official closing price.....

cheers

 

[lurkerlurker]

Thanks HookShot - I have no intention of trying to rip off SB companies, but was just curious if that was the much lauded "arb opp".

 

[lurkerlurker]

Paper Trading.

Entered on DEMA crossover, respected tripletop. Profit target 15, SL 5.

Wall Street - Daily Cash
Open 23/05/2007 13:41 Sell £10 1 13576
Closed 23/05/2007 14:14 Buy £10 1 13564 £120.00

(using £10pp on paper trading, represents £1pp actual trading).

 

[firewalker99]

DOW outline for today

This will most likely sound boring (because of the obvious "long" trade I'm looking for), but this is the scenario I had in mind when I woke up this morning:

Try and retest resistance from yesterday's high. See what happens, most likely first reaction will be a rejection but if we don't reverse much lower I would presume we will break higher which would be a clear long signal for me.

-> Now if you look at the overnight price action (see chart) we've already had a test of the high and failed to break that despite the amazing strength in DAX.

So I expect to move higher after some consolidation and see DAX trend higher for the rest of the day. However if DOW is unable to breach the resistance selling could start because that would be the 4th attempt and a definite failure.

I won't be around to trade DOW today, but I wish everybody good luck.

 

[lurkerlurker]

This will most likely sound boring (because of the obvious "long" trade I'm looking for), but this is the scenario I had in mind when I woke up this morning:

Try and retest resistance from yesterday's high. See what happens, most likely first reaction will be a rejection but if we don't reverse much lower I would presume we will break higher which would be a clear long signal for me.

-> Now if you look at the overnight price action (see chart) we've already had a test of the high and failed to break that despite the amazing strength in DAX.

So I expect to move higher after some consolidation and see DAX trend higher for the rest of the day. However if DOW is unable to breach the resistance selling could start because that would be the 4th attempt and a definite failure.

I won't be around to trade DOW today, but I wish everybody good luck.

It wouldn't be a bad strategy to sell a pullback from ~85 (with confirmation) and buy retracement from an established support between there and ~25 (with confirmation).

I'd be looking for a good long from lower levels, although if support around ~25 is reached, I'd be a little more cautious. Market open lower now, so we shall see!

 

[lurkerlurker]

Long from 13566, SL 56. Target ~85. (Limit 80)

Support zone, DEMA cross.

Papertrade

Edit - stopped out - 10. +5 for the day.

Review - an entry so close to the open was a little premature. I should have waited for a higher low as well as a higher high. Go easy.

Edit 2 - Atilla was right. 10 point stoplosses are a little too tight for the Dow. The market has gone higher than 66 again.

Edit 3 - That stopped out trade would have just hit target if the stop had been 4 pips wider.

Edit 4 - A good long. We've hit 600 on the cash!

 

[firewalker99]

So I expect to move higher after some consolidation and see DAX trend higher for the rest of the day. However if DOW is unable to breach the resistance selling could start because that would be the 4th attempt and a definite failure.

Have a look at the chart accompagnied and compare it with what I said in my earlier post.

Ok before I'm off, especially for lurker a 1-min close up of the action so far:
You can see there is some action around the blue resistance line I've drawn.
You have to put yourself in the head of other traders; it's obvious why some are selling there. Scalpers would be glad to take a short there. On a 1-min time frame you can immediately spot where the limit sell orders are set. Now it's important to watch the action that follows, whether the sellers will take the upper hand or the buyers will push this higher (which is my guess).

 

[firewalker99]

Now it's important to watch the action that follows, whether the sellers will take the upper hand or the buyers will push this higher (which is my guess).

And seconds after I pressed "submit reply" we broke the resistance.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'd have closed my long around now were I still in it. I wouldn't go long or short at this point, even on paper. Will check back around the close, but taking the rest of the day off.

I wonder if counter_violent will be back soon to tell us about his +500 pip longs?

 

[Atilla]

Short @ 13579. SL @ 13592. Target whatever...

Decided to reduce upside risk to 13 pips. Allow me to place another entry in afternoon session if this one fails.

Good trading everyone.

Position got Stopped again...

Firewalkers on the ball. Will watch for a turn.

Perhaps save my 2nd trade to afternoon session come 5 - 6 pm.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Position got Stopped again...

Firewalkers on the ball. Will watch for a turn.

Perhaps save my 2nd trade to afternoon session come 5 - 6 pm.

That is an idea Atilla. Bear in mind what I said in my PM.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Does anyone here use the order book to determine market direction, S/R levels, etc?

 

[Atilla]

That is an idea Atilla. Bear in mind what I said in my PM.

Yep will do. Time for some real work now.

See you guys later.

 

[frugi]

Crawling up the underside of a wedge at present.

Can it reach the next channel top in vicinity of red circle?

 

[Atilla]

Get Shorty!

Short @ 13590. SL @ 13615

Target 13560 region.

Reason: taking a view this level 600 will not be held. If so then hello to 700.

 

[hobby]

Atilla, I wish you well on that trade. I always considered myself to be the mutha of all bears, but I've found someone that is seeing this through longer than I have the stomach for....I've taken an absolute kicking over the past two months.

I temporarily stacked my shortin' hand on the Dow about a week or two ago, though I'm starting to get interested & 'twitchy' again.

That said, I can't help feel that it needs one last day blow off (ie circa +130 to +150 points on the day) & that'll be it....I'd normally be joining in the shorting frenzy, but this market has kicked my ass, so next time I want to be sure I'm shorting at "hahaha you gotta be kidding me" lofty levels...we're not far off now. If it doesn't turn today...it'll be tomorrow/Friday in my humblest of opinions. (in the absence of the tiddlies selling off, that pesky oil price is my main hope...driving season starts in a few days, just wait till they fill up their SUVS).

I always keep an eye on how the DAX trends between 4.30pm & 9.00pm as it can give an indication of how likely the gains we're seeing stateside will hold (& as I type it's just up, up & away...not the slightest chink of weakness)

I see Oscar has been calling it bad recently (again today....he got stopped out on the S&P).

Good luck.

 

[Paul71]

I've deleted so as to not cause offence, but there was an element of truth in my deleted waffle.

Buying it through 600 (cash) resistence anybody?

Has there been such a thing as resistance over the past few months?

 

[mark twain uk]

Anybody else thinking we're looking at a runaway train? Just doubled my short on both SPX and Dow (edited - showing a loss at the mo), as well as on DAX, if there is a correction it could be sizeable.

 

[Dinos]

Good evening, tuning in for the last couple of hours, my limit order on my short of last night got hit llast night, out for + 30 for the day, happy with that.

Will look at my charts and try bag a few more points, let you know how I see it

 

[2468steve]

$/yen looking to break above 122 is not helping the bears IMO...Personally i'd rather short these markets on Yen strength,which we're not seeing..

cheers