Dow 2007

[firewalker99]

I'll go one better. I shorted at 75 but was too chicken**** to follow through, so I covered at 74! Dinos - thanks for the PMs and advice, I appreciate it - thanks for also helping me with the system. The system worked perfectly today, and even helped me get in the aforementioned short. Unfortunately, my psychology is broken.

Atilla, hobby, firewalker, jacinto ; I'm going to write up my journal for today, and then respond to all your comments. Quite a bit to do, so please bear with me.

No worries, you hang in there.
As Atilla pointed out, I see little reason to change your system.
If you haven't followed your rules and didn't trade according to your system, you can't tell whether it's working or not.

 

[hobby]

Sure, you are absolutely right. Remember I thought DAX was going to open lower this am too, but it wouldn't have none of that. Since the iden of March the DAX rose 20%!

For sure something's gotta give at some point, but I don't see why longs at this level are risky... at least if you don't hold overnights. My risk is limited to my stop which usually is less than 10 points so even in the worst case scenario with slippage etc I can only lose as much. I'm waiting to see an important support level break before changing my bios from longs to shorts.

For longs, having a disciplined stop policy is essential at present & you're bang on the money...don't be long overnight! The problem I see with *even* having stops on a long basis, is such is the trend of late to buy the dips, that even if your stops are taken out chances are you'll be tempted back in....the policy wont hold up during a sustained fall over days/weeks (but will obviously be fine on a one day Tsunami-esque fall!)

edit: Just read this latest update on moneycentral...

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/briefing/StockTicker.asp (15:30ET time update)

"A renewed wave of selling interest now leaves stocks hitting afternoon lows. Not only does it look like the S&P 500 may have to wait at least one more day before it closes in record territory, it now runs the risk of turning negative."

...terrible reporting, that's not neutrality....that bias to the point of goading people into the market "ok. so it might not make a record close today, but it will tomorrow"...is it any wonder the market participants have taken leave of their senses when they're bombarded with junk like that.

2nd edit: Call me obessive, but I can't get my head past this type of reporting (Moneycentral agan, but different part of their website!)...

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.asp

"Lower oil prices give stocks a boost."

Oh how convenient, when they were spiking up over the past week, you made no metion of Oil, other than to say the energy sector is getting a boost & providing "leadership"....cake & eat it?!!!

 

[Dinos]

FW, agree with your statement: the old adage applies, plan the plan, trade the plan.

LL if you can get into that mindset, I have seen you change your plan to many times, state what your going to do, and then do something totally different. With all due respect, you really need to sort this out, otherwise you will consistently struggle and probably lose more than you make, sorry to be blunt.

I hope you sort it out, i'm sure between us all, we can point you in the right direction, and good luck

Kindest regards


Robert

 

[Atilla]

I had problems today. They got worse when I shorted at 45. I've just checked, and the market came back. Makes me feel worse, I've no idea why. Next, thing, I'll be advocating averaging down or something. Atilla, surely you can relate? You covered shorts near the high too. How do you manage that sort of emotional response when the market comes back without you?

I've lost a great deal more than last week. So well trained you might say.

Also, the money I put in the trading I don't feel it's money I have. Don't feel attached to it at all. Consider it as few numbers. If I lost all of it my family and I wouldn't notice it missing. Having said that it's not much but sufficient to play the markets.

Good margin and risk control. Max 5%. 1% is usually it. The 5% goes in increments.

Strange but my fundamental analysis usually gets a bigger kicking mentally than the money loss with me. I know most traders are Techies and I'm moving that way.

Trade tomorrow. Set you rules and stick with it.

I agree with Jacinto, last couple of days markets chart giving double tops. Tomorrow, I'll be looking to short again as these are the highs of the highs. Call me obsessive if you must.

 

[Dinos]

Decision made, based on my 5,10,15 and to some extent 30 min charts, I'm going to let this run overnight with buy orders set to lock in profit. As I type currently up +27 pts.

 

[Paul71]

Lurker.

You've made a gallant effort, with your Dow thread posts and your journal. Futures are not for everyone, you need to be really on top of your game to trade futures, not just plan wise but discipline too. Would you consider fixed odds? Or maybe just try 'one day one trade', you either buy it or sell it at the open?

I'm no expert, just someone trying to help, but there are other options you can consider.

 

[Dinos]

Goodnight all

 

[Paul71]

Goodnight all, too.

 

[tricks]

Short 68, one off my favorite number, sorry Ladies, no offence!

Covered at close, 540, thank you! That more than paid for the Chinese takeaway!

cheers - Tricks

 

[lurkerlurker]

Covered at close, 540, thank you! That more than paid for the Chinese takeaway!

cheers - Tricks

Nice trade. I am also having a Chinese takeaway, but will be paying out of my own pocket.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Lurker.

You've made a gallant effort, with your Dow thread posts and your journal. Futures are not for everyone, you need to be really on top of your game to trade futures, not just plan wise but discipline too. Would you consider fixed odds? Or maybe just try 'one day one trade', you either buy it or sell it at the open?

I'm no expert, just someone trying to help, but there are other options you can consider.

I'll pencil you in as a Yes to my earlier question: Should I hang this up?
Frank response, I appreciate it. I'd prefer one day one trade to any binary bet stuff, no offence to binary bet punters. Futures are not for everyone - I've made profits and losses before - I've not lost my shirt, and I'm not so hacked off as to jack it in just yet. One thing though - I'm not adding money to my account - if I blow this, I'm through.

 

[Dinos]

Just called back in before I retire for the night,

After hours trading down to 20/24, reduced my buy order to lock in additional profit, will hold now and let run.

 

[Kinger]

I'll pencil you in as a Yes to my earlier question: Should I hang this up?
Frank response, I appreciate it. I'd prefer one day one trade to any binary bet stuff, no offence to binary bet punters. Futures are not for everyone - I've made profits and losses before - I've not lost my shirt, and I'm not so hacked off as to jack it in just yet. One thing though - I'm not adding money to my account - if I blow this, I'm through.

Keep going Lurker, what you don't realise is although the learning curve hurts it'll be worth it. It'll start clicking in place soon, keep going even if its in tiny amounts most people would have given up by now.

Although I don't comment much on these boards I do read them alot and you have alot of good input and could one day be a legend.

One day your journal may be in paper back !

 

[Atilla]

Get Shorty!

I sat down to look at the charts with a long bullish view. I keep asking my self what am I missing ( I hear screw loose echo in my head - signs of insanity creeping in. ).

Standard error channels are one of my favourite indicators... It tells me that 95% of all price movements should lie within these channels.

MACD also has exceeded all previous highs. We also have divergence since March.

I don't like calling tops but we are so very close. I now see double tops on the 4 hour charts too.

Either 13530 will be support or Dow will sink to 13500

 

[hobby]

Global Synchronicity - "Pick an indice....any indice"

Can anyone remeber a time where all the indicies of the world hit their highs at more or less the same time?

Oz, Brazil, China, UK, Germany (whoa check out that mutha today...it's gaining 40-80 points gain per day, every day!), US, Urzbekhistan ("I like").

Astonishing...not sure what it tells us (other than there's a Tsunami of money trying to eke out a gain all over the wrold), but when it turns south - especially if it's disorderly - the eventual outcome is going to be really *really* unnerving.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I sat down to look at the charts with a long bullish view. I keep asking my self what am I missing ( I hear screw loose echo in my head - signs of insanity creeping in. ).

Standard error channels are one of my favourite indicators... It tells me that 95% of all price movements should lie within these channels.

MACD also has exceeded all previous highs. We also have divergence since March.

I don't like calling tops but we are so very close. I now see double tops on the 4 hour charts too.

Either 13530 will be support or Dow will sink to 13500

Want something bullish? Lower trendline on the 4h has been respected once again.

This 4h bar could well close above highs, and even if it does not, I would at least look for a break of 500 before shorting.

 

[Atilla]

Want something bullish? Lower trendline on the 4h has been respected once again.

This 4h bar could well close above highs, and even if it does not, I would at least look for a break of 500 before shorting.

Short @ 13579. SL @ 13592. Target whatever...

Decided to reduce upside risk to 13 pips. Allow me to place another entry in afternoon session if this one fails.

Good trading everyone.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Short @ 13579. SL @ 13592. Target whatever...

Decided to reduce upside risk to 13 pips. Allow me to place another entry in afternoon session if this one fails.

Good trading everyone.

Atilla, you will catch the top. I just hope you don't wipe out your account first. You are one of the most dedicated bears I've ever seen - I think the market may reward you for that soon enough.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Mentioning no names, and with no intention of doing this, is the following hypothetical example an arbritage opportunity?

SB Bookie X quotes the Dow (cash) at 13566 - 13571.
SB Bookie Y quotes the Dow (cash) at 13574 - 13579.

I actually have those two quotes offered simultaneously.

Edit: wait, thats not an arb because there is a combined 9 point spread for taking that trade, and only 3 points between the spread?

 

[Hook Shot]

LL does cash settle at the official closing price ? If so this trade should work ....
if spread on closing then perhaps not