Dow 2007

[Dinos]

Long from 34

 

[counter_violent]

ah, i see, so no wonder my euroyen short may be successfull as i sold at the multiyear high :cheesy:

Care to explain me ol mukka ? ...if your short eur/yen...i'd be careful when looking to take profit....cos this mutha aint finished rising yet

 

[Dinos]

Out 42, for +8,

 

[Paul71]

Tug of War.

All this price action is linked in to the phase of the market....consider the vested interests at play .......investors long term are having a beano..they don't want to see a collapse....dumb money has heard dow at all time highs...they add fuel to the overheating index......shorters thinking it can't go higher ...i don't believe it.com types...so wilder price swings are order of the day....new all time high and new relative low in the same day.....and all of this market made up of human emotion and nothing else...forget value and funny mentals....it's all here and it's all happening right now....these are the best of times for pure traders to fill ya boots....

good trading C V

PS think also about how the markets right now are inflicting the maximum amount of pain to both sides of the argument !!!

Indeed. I like this insight.

 

[jacinto]

Care to explain me ol mukka ? ...if your short eur/yen...i'd be careful when looking to take profit....cos this mutha aint finished rising yet

relative correlation between the 2 quite high for the last months. yes, speculative. nobody thinks its a reversal......just shorting a pullback...of couple of hundred pips though.

will delete the comment. sorry. out of lplace.

 

[stevechelt]

I managed 77pts, unfortunately only a a paper-trade short taken at 13590 at 18.49. It was based on a simple stochastics based system I am trying out, which also indicated a long at 13534 a few minutes ago, seems to be just about ok at the moment, maybe the PPT are in action!

According to Briefing.com - "the extensiveness of the market's pullback is likely being attributed to the triggering of a sell program since the major indices plunged in synch with each other and logged roughly the same percentage pullbacks (-0.5%)"

Well done all those using real cash!!

Theres 19 people on this thread, anybody else manage to get some of that, and perhaps still are, whats your thoughts

 

[Dinos]

Finished for the day (well I only started early evening) +67, off for a well earned beer and watch the footy.

Hope you all had a good day and good luck


Goodnight

Robert

 

[mark twain uk]

I am done for tonight, left OCO's in place for the little longs, have had a rollercoster of trading yesterday and today, yesterday I doubled on my shorts and got stopped out, today I again doubled on my shorts and won, I suppose I got lucky, I could have nursed a big loss if the price had spiked up instead of down, wishing everybody good luck and good night.

p.s. Sorry if my posts looked too good to be true, 350 points over 6 shorts looks fantastic, but I lost about 160 points yesterday, older poster here know that I owned up to some big losses when they happened. I used to keep losing positions for days only to see the loss getting bigger and bigger, now I do mostly day trading and try to go for smaller, but more regular wins.

 

[Dinos]

Steve, well done, I wasn't trading then, but my entry would have been at 95 with my set up, glad to see the paper trading is going along fine, it really is upto the individual as to what set up they feel comfortable with and maybe you have found yours. This should give you confidence when you trade cash, knowing your system works, does take away a great amount of stress, you won't win every time, but will find you win the majority.

Glad to hear its going well

Kind Regards

Robert

 

[lurkerlurker]

Theres 19 people on this thread, anybody else manage to get some of that, and perhaps still are, whats your thoughts

Unfortunately not. I've been in bed most of the day with what appears to be some variety of head cold. I'm really pissed off because I never get ill, and every time I get ill, I remember how crappy it was last time 2 or so years ago. I'd have been away from the markets anyway.

Here is hoping there are some good wide ranging days over the next few weeks. Today, according to the finalised method, the market was quite easy to trade and only gave a few signals.

 

[hobby]

Alas, I didn't catch the wave down either...I was waiting for about another 15 points to the upside before pulling the trigger, but it tanked before I got to pull! I was then reluctant to hop on board becuase every one of these dips has clawed back of late...typically with me on the sidelines, this one didn't fully recover!

Still not *that* convincing -14 on the day having got as low as -39 so quickly from it's highs (though hearteningly, the DAX looked weak into close...again!).

Still feels like a reluctant fall....& that S&P still clings rather near (& still wanting to close above) it's all time closing high - I doubt the market will finally yield until this milestone has been met.

All eyes out East tonight I guess to see what impact 'the wrinkly one's' comments may have in the region.

 

[Atilla]

Hi chaps,

First things first - what a ****iy night. The football ruined it for me. Watched it with my sister and brother-in-law. Nice atmosphere but shame about the result.

I did win £2 at online poker though. On a table of 10 I came third. It was fun but I couldn't take the stake size seriously. If I came first I could have had £5.00. That's £1+20p to sit at the table. I suppose it's about 70% return on your money and you get entertained Not sure I have the time for it really.

Coming back to the markets put a smile on my short position. Still have an open pos and couldn't believe it. Currently up +54 less -13 = Grand Total of +41. Excuse me whilst I fall off my chair. Please no applause

As for my view on the DOW - I'm sure nobody wants another rant but I started so I'll finish...


Markets are a little excited at reaching previous year 2000 highs or even breaching it.

Forgive me but millenium highs are renowned for hype and dot com bubble boom bust. Call it what you will. So what justfies markets where they are at the moment. Jack didly dot.

Housing slump or soft landing
Debt crises
Dollar wipe out
Oil at $65+
Budget defecit
BoP defecit
Interest rates up
Inflationary pressures up
Competition up
Excess liquidity up
Even private equity has a question mark over it
M & A activity up with no productivity
Consolidation in various industries & cutbacks
Saturated markets
Vista not selling at all somebody should let Microsoft know...
War a calamity

And only now some people questioning are the markets over - extended...

Don't get me wrong. I think after some retrace I feel we stand a 50/50 chance of seeing 13700. Honestly I do. Sooner or later inevitably the fundamentals catches up with the technics. Or is it the technics catches up with the fundamentals. Do I care. No! Who gives a **** as long as those pips roll in...

If I had another bottle it might change my perspective... :cheesy: My glass is definately empty tonight...

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi chaps,

First things first - what a ****iy night. The football ruined it for me. Watched it with my sister and brother-in-law. Nice atmosphere but shame about the result.

I did win £2 at online poker though. On a table of 10 I came third. It was fun but I couldn't take the stake size seriously. If I came first I could have had £5.00. That's £1+20p to sit at the table. I suppose it's about 70% return on your money and you get entertained Not sure I have the time for it really.

Coming back to the markets put a smile on my short position. Still have an open pos and couldn't believe it. Currently up +54 less -13 = Grand Total of +41. Excuse me whilst I fall off my chair. Please no applause

As for my view on the DOW - I'm sure nobody wants another rant but I started so I'll finish...


Markets are a little excited at reaching previous year 2000 highs or even breaching it.

Forgive me but millenium highs are renowned for hype and dot com bubble boom bust. Call it what you will. So what justfies markets where they are at the moment. Jack didly dot.

Housing slump or soft landing
Debt crises
Dollar wipe out
Oil at $65+
Budget defecit
BoP defecit
Interest rates up
Inflationary pressures up
Competition up
Excess liquidity up
Even private equity has a question mark over it
M & A activity up with no productivity
Consolidation in various industries & cutbacks
Saturated markets
Vista not selling at all somebody should let Microsoft know...
War a calamity

And only now some people questioning are the markets over - extended...

Don't get me wrong. I think after some retrace I feel we stand a 50/50 chance of seeing 13700. Honestly I do. Sooner or later inevitably the fundamentals catches up with the technics. Or is it the technics catches up with the fundamentals. Do I care. No! Who gives a **** as long as those pips roll in...

If I had another bottle it might change my perspective... :cheesy: My glass is definately empty tonight...

I'm really pleased for you. You needed to get a profitable short in on this market. I notice that your analysis has been one sided of late, looking for short opportunities only.

I hope you can take two things from this:

1) Renewed confidence in your abilities
2) Now your bearish view has been vindicated, you can go back to assessing the market from a neutral perspective while flat

I appreciate that the market refusing to face facts re economic fundamentals is extremely frustrating. I am also in no sound position to give advice - but if this post makes sense to you great, if it doesn't then feel free to ignore it. Remind yourself that as long as the market is open, it can do anything. Concentrate on doing what you do best - making pips. Profits are profits whether they are earned on short or long trades.

Well done with the online poker. I only play poker face to face - I only gamble on games of skill in the true sense of the word, of which poker is one. However, there are too many poker bots (and a computer can work out the odds faster than you can, with more accuracy, and without emotion). I really feel that the prevalence of poker bots has ruined online poker for everyone. Of course, if I want a poker game, I actually have to arrange a night with my buddies, which is no bad thing.

Congratulations again - I hope this helps your trading (and also, aren't you just a little smug about taking money from an irrational bull?)

 

[Paul71]

Hi chaps,

First things first - what a ****iy night. The football ruined it for me. Watched it with my sister and brother-in-law. Nice atmosphere but shame about the result.

I did win £2 at online poker though. On a table of 10 I came third. It was fun but I couldn't take the stake size seriously. If I came first I could have had £5.00. That's £1+20p to sit at the table. I suppose it's about 70% return on your money and you get entertained Not sure I have the time for it really.

Coming back to the markets put a smile on my short position. Still have an open pos and couldn't believe it. Currently up +54 less -13 = Grand Total of +41. Excuse me whilst I fall off my chair. Please no applause

As for my view on the DOW - I'm sure nobody wants another rant but I started so I'll finish...


Markets are a little excited at reaching previous year 2000 highs or even breaching it.

Forgive me but millenium highs are renowned for hype and dot com bubble boom bust. Call it what you will. So what justfies markets where they are at the moment. Jack didly dot.

Housing slump or soft landing
Debt crises
Dollar wipe out
Oil at $65+
Budget defecit
BoP defecit
Interest rates up
Inflationary pressures up
Competition up
Excess liquidity up
Even private equity has a question mark over it
M & A activity up with no productivity
Consolidation in various industries & cutbacks
Saturated markets
Vista not selling at all somebody should let Microsoft know...
War a calamity

And only now some people questioning are the markets over - extended...

Don't get me wrong. I think after some retrace I feel we stand a 50/50 chance of seeing 13700. Honestly I do. Sooner or later inevitably the fundamentals catches up with the technics. Or is it the technics catches up with the fundamentals. Do I care. No! Who gives a **** as long as those pips roll in...

If I had another bottle it might change my perspective... :cheesy: My glass is definately empty tonight...

Gutted about the footy!

Happy with my short!

It's hard to seriously short this market at the mo. Be careful. Funnymentals? Don't even consider them, they are in the chart anyway. Good luck today.

 

[Atilla]

Gutted about the footy!

Happy with my short!

It's hard to seriously short this market at the mo. Be careful. Funnymentals? Don't even consider them, they are in the chart anyway. Good luck today.

Morning all.

We will either find support at 13500 or it will collapse through. We are on a long term SAR line going back to March / April.

If it bounces then I'll be longing for 13700.

If it collapses 13250 ( my original target was 13150 ).

No view on daily direction for today.

This one will be news led and I will be waiting to hear the news on jobless stats and new home sales.

Good trading everyone...

 

[Hook Shot]

Morning all.

We will either find support at 13500 or it will collapse through. We are on a long term SAR line going back to March / April.

If it bounces then I'll be longing for 13700.

If it collapses 13250 ( my original target was 13150 ).

No view on daily direction for today.

This one will be news led and I will be waiting to hear the news on jobless stats and new home sales.

Good trading everyone...

A little bounce to test 560 and failure through 500 would be nice then should see 400/410 ?? Market nicely positioned whatever happens longs have 500 to lean on and shorts should see waterfall if 500 breaks

 

[firewalker99]

Housing slump or soft landing
Debt crises
Dollar wipe out
Oil at $65+
Budget defecit
BoP defecit
Interest rates up
Inflationary pressures up
Competition up
Excess liquidity up
Even private equity has a question mark over it
M & A activity up with no productivity
Consolidation in various industries & cutbacks
Saturated markets
Vista not selling at all somebody should let Microsoft know...
War a calamity

I can't comment on all of the issues you mentioned, but Vista not selling? Err... "40 million copies in 100 days": http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/15/news/companies/microsoft_vista_sales.reut/index.htm

Oil at 65$? Oil hasn't touched 70 so markets are relieved.

Saturated markets? Not by the looks of the annual economic growth.

War a calamity? War's been a topic for last couple of years, why would it have more impact now?

Anyway, it's like linesniffer said, the chart tells everything, even before "fundamentalists" find out

 

[frugi]

(The "you" in this post is anyone).

I appreciate that the market refusing to face facts re economic fundamentals is extremely frustrating.

Why is it?

How can extended price movement in either direction possibly be frustrating, when the very point of this business is to profit from it?

Perhaps because you have made the mistake of tainting price with an opinion.

Price moving contrary to your opinion of where it should go can indeed be extremely frustrating, especially when it leads you to make poor decisions, or to avoid sound ones. Fixing an opinion on a certain direction also renders you insensitive to clues that it might wish to go in the other.

Your opinion cannot and must not be forced on the market if you are to avoid this destructive and unnecessary conflict between expectation and reality. Ditch it.

It is really much easier simply to concentrate on price. Fundamentals are imho baggage and their malign influence to be avoided. (That's not to say they should not be studied extra-maritally, as it were , to satisfy intellectual curiosity etc.)

As charliechan put it to me bluntly some years ago: Are you an analyst or a trader?

A trader observes, adapts to and accepts what is happening; an analyst wails "But look at the ... how can it...." and tells us rather pointlessly what 'should' be happening. Unless one intends to run a newsletter, it is rather important to be in the former category.

No offence intended. Just thought I'd stir up a few hornets while trying to win the coveted T2W most smug member award.

 

[Atilla]

I can't comment on all of the issues you mentioned, but Vista not selling? Err... "40 million copies in 100 days": ttp://money.cnn.com/2007/05/15/news/companies/microsoft_vista_sales.reut/index.htm

I'm in the industry and I haven't heard of any business taking up the offer to roll out Vista?

Oil at 65$? Oil hasn't touched 70 so markets are relieved.

Still a big factor of production eating into profits and prices. Will hit earnings.

Saturated markets? Not by the looks of the annual economic growth.

If you pump enough money into the markets to stimulate demand people will always buy more of what they don't need. I'm not saying this is wrong but inflationary pressures will simmer for only so long.

War a calamity? War's been a topic for last couple of years, why would it have more impact now?

Sooner or later the $600bn war expense will have to be honoured. As that money hits circulation as income and expenditure it starts to have a multiplier effect. That's why wars are inflationary with a lag effect.

Anyway, it's like linesniffer said, the chart tells everything, even before "fundamentalists" find out

The charts follow the fundamentals with a significant lag...

 

[Hook Shot]

looks like dow might go up since dax is so strong....?
if 13500 blows then dax should be nice short ?