Dow 2007

[firewalker99]

Hi firewalker. Thanks for the advice. I followed my system (and common sense), and exited near the top, where there were some signs of a reversal for +18!

yes well done, that would have been about around the point where I exited first half...
have you thought about scaling out?

have a look at the highest overnight price... that would've been the "obvious" second target, and that's about where I just shorted now

 

[Paul71]

Short 13615 = cash 13580

Yes, i've just shorted the Nas at 1920.

 

[firewalker99]

firewalker,

have you got a target? In my opinion, if the support at 1529 June SPX does not hold we will see at least 100 points down from the top

hi there... oh no my target is much less as this is a counter-trend trade;
I certainly don't expect this to fall 100 points, sorry...

 

[mark twain uk]

the fall of 100 points was conditional on the support at 1529 SPX June being broken, if it holds then it could make another attemtp to a higher high

 

[firewalker99]

Afternoon all.

Any of you lot noticed large amounts of volume on the Dow and S&P today?

Thanks.

Not really... you trying to unload large amounts? :cheesy:
so far nobody's noticed

 

[jacinto]

went long 75 on the cash, target above the figure

the stop is 10 pips

 

[Paul71]

Not really... you trying to unload large amounts? :cheesy:
so far nobody's noticed

Hi FW.

Between 11 am and 12 pm? No? Doesn't matter, the way it's showed is as resistive (selling). Time will tell!


Edit: I unloaded on Friday through, Sigma X. He he he.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Short 13615 = cash 13580

Great entry. I was in the shower.

 

[lurkerlurker]

yes well done, that would have been about around the point where I exited first half...
have you thought about scaling out?

have a look at the highest overnight price... that would've been the "obvious" second target, and that's about where I just shorted now

I'd consider scaling out if I traded more than £1pp. (I no longer trade more than £1pp - risk is too high and I'm not that sure of myself yet - I'd pyramid a position as explained in my method I posted earlier, but that would need a winning trade of at least +20 with plenty of momentum).

 

[firewalker99]

Hi FW.

Between 11 am and 12 pm? No? Doesn't matter, the way it's showed is as resistive (selling). Time will tell!


Edit: I unloaded on Friday through, Sigma X. He he he.

ah on NQ it's much more noticeable, yeah indeed... +20k on 5-min bar!
not as much on DOW though...

but on bigger time frame it's clear where the volume is coming from

1) from position traders who where short from the resistance area (1910-1915 on bigger timeframe) -> all those stops flew off

+

2) buyers who anticipated the breakout and went along with it...

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'm off for the rest of the evening. Will be back to post journal, trades, thoughts, etc around 10pm.

Good trading all.

Atilla, please rethink this shorting - I am quite concerned for you. Please don't take this the wrong way - I was a big grizzly bear on this instrument myself recently, and I was badly burned. I think 580 is a reasonable short entry, but only for intra-day. It wouldn't surprise me to see this market close around that level or higher, and I would expect 600 by midweek.

Good trading all.

 

[firewalker99]

I'd consider scaling out if I traded more than £1pp. (I no longer trade more than £1pp - risk is too high and I'm not that sure of myself yet - I'd pyramid a position as explained in my method I posted earlier, but that would need a winning trade of at least +20 with plenty of momentum).

Than it might be a good idea just to papertrade, and "imagine" you have a bigger position on. That way you can see what would happen and evaluate both a real and papertrade strategy... Just a thought.

 

[firewalker99]

Yes, i've just shorted the Nas at 1920.

If that was cash price, than I have only one word: r-e-s-p-e-ct
you absolutely nailed it right?

if it was futures.. nevermind

 

[firewalker99]

the fall of 100 points was conditional on the support at 1529 SPX June being broken, if it holds then it could make another attemtp to a higher high

yes, that's true

anyway I just closed my short, +10 only, but it was a countertrend trade and I've left it the allowed time (for me) to react...

 

[Paul71]

If that was cash price, than I have only one word: r-e-s-p-e-ct
you absolutely nailed it right?

if it was futures.. nevermind

Futures!

 

[jacinto]

-10

 

[Paul71]

Have a look at the Nas when you have time FW, it's nestled itself into a nice little channel up there, just as long as the resistance holds out, which is where it is now.

Good trading.

Edit: just off resistance.

 

[firewalker99]

Have a look at the Nas when you have time FW, it's nestled itself into a nice little channel up there, just as long as the resistance holds out, which is where it is now.

Good trading.

Edit: just off resistance.

Ehm..; what time frame do you find this channel?
Can you post a chart perhaps I'm not really clear where I need to look sorry

 

[Paul71]

Ehm..; what time frame do you find this channel?
Can you post a chart perhaps I'm not really clear where I need to look sorry

30 day, touched support on the 01/05 and then again on the 16/05.

 

[firewalker99]

30 day, touched support on the 01/05 and then again on the 16/05.

Oh ok, yes I know what you mean. It's what I would call a sideways range. A channel for me is defined be a clear directional movement (either upwards or downwards) with price staying in between two boundaries (where usually supply & demandlines can be drawn)...

anyway personally I thought we were going to see a downwards break, but it could go higher now that we are clear of that...