Dow 2007

Nice entry you got there! I was replying to another post and missed it - from the chart it looks like the price wasn't there for long.

Last time I shorted at 539, I covered at 538.
 
2 hours left - 25 pips down. I can see the market moving the 29 pips I need for breakeven before the close - I am just unsure on the direction.

New record highs, or a sell off?
 
Right, +10 on that short.

Net position: -15 pips

I'll be back on Monday to give it a full week. Will write journal late tonight / early tomorrow- off for a Chinese and a beer.
 
jacinto said:
Ok just got back to see i did get filled short @ 45 which was the measured move I had as a pending target. my 20 pip stop wasnt triggered which is cool. will keep till close without moving the stop.
Click to expand...

lowering the stop to -10 (i.e. 55)

I know I said I wouldnt move stop till the close. and I did expect that the selling would only start towards the last hour. however, as much as the text book lower high-2ble top appears formed, It hasnt been triggered. so that is the reason why.

I am going to exit at 485 for +60, at 555 for -10, or 1 minute prior to close. whichever happens first
 
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jacinto said:
lowering the stop to -10 (i.e. 55)

I know I said I wouldnt move stop till the close. and I did expect that the selling would only start towards the last hour. however, as much as the text book lower high-2ble top appears formed, It hasnt been triggered. so that is the reason why.

I am going to exit at 485 for +60, at 555 for -10, or 1 minute prior to close. whichever happens first
Click to expand...

Gordon Bennett :eek:

Just added to my losing position by shorting it again. To hell with it. :devilish:

My reasoning is that this 550 area is going to be a psychotic spot for split personality traders to reconsider there position. We'll see.
 
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You lot crack me up....all week i've been away working and yet I still managed to take 4k+ out of this frankly bloody obvious phase of the market....last week I posted enough detail on this thread and Lurkers journal for there to be no question or doubt about what would happen this week.......HELLO...like everyone should have been minted this week !....I give up..
 
Atilla said:
Gordon Bennett :eek:

Just added to my losing position by shorting it again. To hell with it. :devilish:

My reasoning is that this 550 area is going to be a psychotic spot for split personality traders to reconsider there position. We'll see.
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear that Atilla. I've had a pretty crappy day also. Next week, I am going to trade for five days and evaluate my performance at EOW. I don't feel so great about being +3, -15 this week, but I've only traded properly for two days, so I can cope with that right now. No idea what is going to happen between now and 2:30 Monday afternoon- glad not to be holding anything.

Sorry you've added, but on the bright side 550 is probably a serious enough resistance level that you will make the profit on a retracement. I have the depressing task of writing my journal this evening, and trying to find reasons why I overtraded, overtraded, and overtraded today, enriching nobody but my broker. I was better off around midday after I took 3 off the FTSE. If I had quit then, at least my performance would be consistently mediocre.

Trading confidence has taken a complete battering today. Going to sit on my balcony with a cold beer until dusk, reading Trollope.

For the weekend, plenty of "Trading in the Zone" methinks, and some backtesting of a proper Dow plan.

I will have proper rules before Monday.

jacinto - sorry to hear you ended the day in the red also. Better luck next week.

Night all. Have a relaxing weekend.

Oh, and if any irrational bulls happen to be reading this: the economy stinks, and your Dow is more overvalued than your dollar, if that were possible.

I'm sure the great and the good had to suffer through some setbacks before becoming successful. Bruce Kovner traded soybeans off a student MasterCard, and George Soros watched Normal Lamont state that the UK government would borrow $15bn to support sterling.
 
Well Atilla, been a bad week for both of us on the shorting.
I can see we are both on the same wavelength.
Have a good weekend, better week next week.
Good weekend to all other traders
peter
 
bottomleyp said:
Well Atilla, been a bad week for both of us on the shorting.
I can see we are both on the same wavelength.
Have a good weekend, better week next week.
Good weekend to all other traders
peter
Click to expand...

Your sentiments are appreciated. Even if we are all losers propping each other up at the moment, we will be winners together in the near future I'm sure.

Don't let this get you down guys - losses come with the territory - keep your peckers up!
 
bottomleyp said:
Well Atilla, been a bad week for both of us on the shorting.
I can see we are both on the same wavelength.
Have a good weekend, better week next week.
Good weekend to all other traders
peter
Click to expand...

Thanks guys. I live to play another day. Won't sleep over it thanks to good money management and I don't mean losing it.

The good news is 13569 hasn't been taken out and I'm still in the game. Bad news is since Wednesday DOW has cost me almost -200 pips. Amazing. However, it was a relatively small stake which was added to at the 13550 area.

However, this can't go on. So if 569 does get hit I'll have to stop the obsession with the DOW and move off to Gold or FX or even Oil.

Upon reflection first part of my analysis last Sunday was correct but the latter post Wednesday was off target. I did predict 13500 as well as 13150. I think this may come next week. We'll have to wait and see.

Have a great weekend y'all. :p
 
counter_violent said:
You lot crack me up....all week i've been away working and yet I still managed to take 4k+ out of this frankly bloody obvious phase of the market....last week I posted enough detail on this thread and Lurkers journal for there to be no question or doubt about what would happen this week.......HELLO...like everyone should have been minted this week !....I give up..
Click to expand...

I agree. It's so obvious. TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, NOT WHAT YOU THINK......
 
Embarrassed, but laughing inside

counter_violent said:
You lot crack me up....all week i've been away working and yet I still managed to take 4k+ out of this frankly bloody obvious phase of the market....last week I posted enough detail on this thread and Lurkers journal for there to be no question or doubt about what would happen this week.......HELLO...like everyone should have been minted this week !....I give up..
Click to expand...

He's right. He told us all about parabolic curves, V exhaustions, and blow off phases. :eek:

What we should have done was buy £5pp (more subject to account size) on Monday evening (13,000 test). Then we could have held until the close tonight, and had a nice 250 pips (and £1250). If we had an initial stoploss of 20, and moved that up by 20 for every 50 points (locking in £100 of profit each time), we could have bought in an additional £2pp each time, and made over 2k.

My bad decision to try and take a few intra day longs each day. Atilla, looks like you were silly for taking a fat contrarian position in the middle of the week. We've all made daft decisions. I'm not one to give advice, and am in no position to do so after my terrible performance this week.

Maybe we should all close our accounts and go buy bonds?

He's right. He showed us the way, and for whatever reason we were too stupid to see it. I don't like holding overnight positions (and as far as I am concerned, LIBOR may as well be a venereal disease). However, if I had taken a long at the open each day, I'd still be up an appreciable amount. Instead I traded my tail off for two days for the grand achievement of being £12 poorer!

Wait, something interesting just come across my live news feed:


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Traders don't always get it right - differing views make a market.

More to follow.

My errors were overtrading and taking small intra-day positions, sometimes against the primary trend. Atilla's errors (in my view) were shorting for half a week, letting his losses hit 200 pips, and thinking the solution is to change markets. (anyone care to take a bet on what we would be saying about him if the Dow closed at 13150 today?) None of us are perfect, and I don't think any trader is ever secure enough in their own abilities to start taking the mickey out of the less fortunate. I'm sure CV's comments weren't intended to read that way - but hey, give us a break. We've had a tough week - lost money (yes, through our own poor decisions) - but you should he happy enough with your 4k - if we had been better traders, and taken your good advice, we'd all be thanking you for your insight.

Right now, all we can say is: "we were wrong, you called it exactly right"

...and you've got the P/L statement to prove it!

Out of interest, how many pips did you bag CV? You may have caught every significant move in the week, or traded one day at £100pp - we're left guessing :LOL:

Better luck for everyone next week, including CV (hey, you should have made more than 4k, right?)

At least we have our humour!

Have a good weekend all. While CV takes his Mrs on a weekend break to a swanky hotel in Paris, I'll be sitting in, alone, reading Mark Douglas and cursing at charts!
 
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