Dow 2007

Apologies Karmit...had my head up my ...

Sorry.. what does this mean? How can one put this information to use?

First things first the market is in a lovely position ... just thankful I didn't take a hardline stance about being on the short side after the explosive move.......

My comment about 38% retracement was that after big declines failure around that level can keep the downtrend intact....

Clearly, there is no evidence of that as euphoria takes over but it's something I bear in mind....

The overbought nature is something everyone can see and should yield EASY triple digit gains after the 600pt surge ....

The way the 38% would play into my thinking would be that I would be more inclined to hold onto swing shorts once initiated than scramble to take profits...since the downwave "could" surprise a few.... or not :LOL:

Just an insight into my thinking but ...........to be honest I've been caught out playing multiple timeframes due to a bit of spare time and was not able compartmentalise them as I usually do... meaning I've missed out on some really juicy opps... not to worry.

Edit: Well done candles ...
 
short dow again at the close 13297. Now short 13040 and 13297 for a average of 13168.5. Looking to close trade at the first daily closing price below my average of 13168.5.
 
You looking for the break even exit now then, dc?
cheers.

my calculated exit is slightly in profit @105 so will take that then I will want a better price than today 389 would do, having said this if we open up at this level in the morning I will hold short for two days
 
Isn't that a little bit of a contradiction? Also, no stops? Where are you wrong? 13,500? 14,000? 14,200? A new all time high? I don't see the Dow taking out August lows, but that isn't the point. The point is are you comfortable with your risk, and do you have a plan for each trade that gets you out when you are "wrong"?

I'm a little concerned as I know you've been burned once or twice being a little too stubborn in your shorts. Just trying to help - I'm still a pretty rubbish trader who keeps bailing out of his hourly positions too quickly!

Hi Lurker,

Well what can I say but that the 4 & 1 hr time frames did play out and I was up in the morning.

So did the weekly and daily charts and I was well down by the evening. Foolishly I closed pos but did not change to longs due to some screw being loose in my head and a nut wobbled out of it's thread.

Basically, gave back many pips over the month. Bad day today indeed.

I salute Firewalker for his longs and everybody else who made on the day.

Lessons learnt - understand that I can be a stuborn person. Risk management allows me to stay in the game.

Good trading everyone... :)
 
Hi Lurker,

Well what can I say but that the 4 & 1 hr time frames did play out and I was up in the morning.

So did the weekly and daily charts and I was well down by the evening. Foolishly I closed pos but did not change to longs due to some screw being loose in my head and a nut wobbled out of it's thread.

Basically, gave back many pips over the month. Bad day today indeed.

I salute Firewalker for his longs and everybody else who made on the day.

Lessons learnt - understand that I can be a stuborn person. Risk management allows me to stay in the game.

Good trading everyone... :)

Hi! Sorry to hear you have had a bad day. I was worried to hear that you were trading without stops. If it is any consolation, while my trading is improving I'm still making a lot of silly mistakes. I took a trade today on a very weak signal and it cost me 64 pips. I exited a beautiful crude short for +60 at $93, for no apparent reason other than it had gone to 92.80 and then come back up to $93 and I didn't want to give back any more to the market. It kept falling for most of the day. I'm up on the week and month, but I'm not being discerning enough with my entries and I'm panicking exits too soon. As a result, my average win is too small and average loss is too big. I'm taking the rest of the week and month off to protect profits, and will be working on refining my strategy during this time. More ramblings in journal.

I'm sure we'll be fine-however it seems both of us are continuing to make some silly mistakes which is either causing losses or limiting profits.

I'm quite pleased with myself though. After the drawdown disaster which was October, I've recovered some of my account, switched to a higher timeframe, increased my holding time while reducing my trade frequency, and learned quite a bit in the process. I've also discovered I'm lacking discipline and still have a propensity to overtrade and panic exits. Anyway, getting offtopic for the Dow thread, but perhaps you should take some time off and reflect also. I hope you have some bear pips left - if I recall you were short most of the way down.
 
The Golden Era....

No I'm not referring to the reign of Mourinho if we can get him....

I'm mean that oftentimes (4me) situations on indices don't really set up well and it's a bit hit and miss..... but during times like this - after a sustained 2d mega rally - the picture gets a little clearer....

The next 48hrs should be pretty hot.... and if I'd been awake at the lows ... it would have been one of the best weeks ever... but that's history now :cheesy:

So I'm saying there are times when you're not really sure and there are times like this when the outcome is inevitable and will occur in a relatively short period of time...


Make the most of it... these periods don't come along too often ... and they make up for all the periods of sub prime performace when you trade set ups which aren't really there.... at least I sometimes do...

ALWAYS BET ON THE INEVITABLE .... and right now there is less chance to mess up due to timing :LOL:

I'm not being really specific because it's really obvious ... a no brainer as Dc called it this week....

Mourinho may not transform England if he arrives..although I would not bet against it.. but he will be entertaining.... Some may remember his first press conference on arrival at Stamford Bridge.. saying he was one of the best coaches in Europe or did he say the world not sure.... he then went on to win back to back premierships :LOL:
 
Hi! Sorry to hear you have had a bad day. I was worried to hear that you were trading without stops. If it is any consolation, while my trading is improving I'm still making a lot of silly mistakes. I took a trade today on a very weak signal and it cost me 64 pips. I exited a beautiful crude short for +60 at $93, for no apparent reason other than it had gone to 92.80 and then come back up to $93 and I didn't want to give back any more to the market. It kept falling for most of the day. I'm up on the week and month, but I'm not being discerning enough with my entries and I'm panicking exits too soon. As a result, my average win is too small and average loss is too big. I'm taking the rest of the week and month off to protect profits, and will be working on refining my strategy during this time. More ramblings in journal.

I'm sure we'll be fine-however it seems both of us are continuing to make some silly mistakes which is either causing losses or limiting profits.

I'm quite pleased with myself though. After the drawdown disaster which was October, I've recovered some of my account, switched to a higher timeframe, increased my holding time while reducing my trade frequency, and learned quite a bit in the process. I've also discovered I'm lacking discipline and still have a propensity to overtrade and panic exits. Anyway, getting offtopic for the Dow thread, but perhaps you should take some time off and reflect also. I hope you have some bear pips left - if I recall you were short most of the way down.

Lurker may I ask why you are concerned if someone is trading without stops?
 
The next 48hrs should be pretty hot.... and if I'd been awake at the lows ... it would have been one of the best weeks ever... but that's history now

BUT is this a new rally if so then there will be a second chance to join it or is it a pullback chance to re short down to 11317
 
Maybe that was his stop?


If that was his stop - at 141 points it was surely much too big for intraday. Maybe he is eod swing trading. I reckon 20 - 40 points is probably enough. Though smaller the stop - the more vulnerable one is to the SpreadBet Cos.
 
Lurker may I ask why you are concerned if someone is trading without stops?

Because trading without stops usually(*) means one thing: the trader is letting his/her ego get in the way of common sense. It's also an almost certain guarantee that the trader will be blind to see the other side of the trade. As several members -unfortunately- have shown over the last couple of days. :|

(*) I understand that there might be people out there who are comfortable trading this way. But I doubt the majority feels comfortable letting price go against them 150 to 200 points on intraday trading.
 
Lurker may I ask why you are concerned if someone is trading without stops?

Because trading without stops usually(*) means one thing: the trader is letting his/her ego get in the way of common sense. It's also an almost certain guarantee that the trader will be blind to see the other side of the trade. As several members -unfortunately- have shown over the last couple of days. :|

(*) I understand that there might be people out there who are comfortable trading this way. But I doubt the majority feels comfortable letting price go against them 150 to 200 points on intraday trading.

Firewalkers answer is pretty much in line with my sentiment. I understand there are some traders who are comfortable with not using stops and who also know how to trade effectively in this way. However, in the case of Atilla I think he usually uses stops and from what I remember from his previous trading, taking stops out is not a good sign.
 
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