In the end.......
Oil did NOT make new all time highs on Friday for the 8th Week on an intraday basis - but it came pretty d**n close :cheesy: We got to ~ $96.12 before the shut down coming within 13c of that elusive level..... The weekly close was the highest ever recorded ... but ... I'm cheating...
The most important part .... is those who tracked this little escapade could have made 200-300pips as oil effectively wended it's way from ~$93.20 8pm UK time on Thursday to ~ $96.12 Friday before closing just shy of $96.
A few little twists and turns which certainly caught me out....this is oil after all :cheesy:
But after that spike down before the NFP @ $93.50 it was basically trend up from then on. Perhaps I should revisit my stop loss strategy since I was fairly certain oil would make a decent ascent into Friday ........
Whilst I moaned like a baby about being stopped out there was ample time to get back in for that potential move to $96+ .....had I operated a different style of play.... something to learn from that me thinks...
Friday made an inside day following Thursday's new ALL TIME highs - it's a strong inside day so we should expect fresh highs on Sunday/Monday .... but it could possibly go the other way and break $93.01 if new highs fail :cheesy:
Now ..... I'll stop clogging up the thread ... with oil chat anyway ..
cheesy .. but just think we could see $100 OIL as soon as next week at this rate
Oil did NOT make new all time highs on Friday for the 8th Week on an intraday basis - but it came pretty d**n close :cheesy: We got to ~ $96.12 before the shut down coming within 13c of that elusive level..... The weekly close was the highest ever recorded ... but ... I'm cheating...
The most important part .... is those who tracked this little escapade could have made 200-300pips as oil effectively wended it's way from ~$93.20 8pm UK time on Thursday to ~ $96.12 Friday before closing just shy of $96.
A few little twists and turns which certainly caught me out....this is oil after all :cheesy:
But after that spike down before the NFP @ $93.50 it was basically trend up from then on. Perhaps I should revisit my stop loss strategy since I was fairly certain oil would make a decent ascent into Friday ........
Whilst I moaned like a baby about being stopped out there was ample time to get back in for that potential move to $96+ .....had I operated a different style of play.... something to learn from that me thinks...
Friday made an inside day following Thursday's new ALL TIME highs - it's a strong inside day so we should expect fresh highs on Sunday/Monday .... but it could possibly go the other way and break $93.01 if new highs fail :cheesy:
Now ..... I'll stop clogging up the thread ... with oil chat anyway ..
cheesy .. but just think we could see $100 OIL as soon as next week at this rate
Last edited:
rathcoole_exile
Guest Author
- Messages
- 3,925
- Likes
- 767
with the ATR as it is, 2 days in the right direction will take us there
but I suspect a slight pullback first, just my interpretation from my charts*, but if a pullback happens it would only be to catch breath before the Big Push Over The Top
*the 5 ema is in danger of getting away from it's pals on the MMA which would cause a guppy-Bubble if it did shoot up >100, which in turn would predict a reversal. I think we need a slight pause to wait for the other MMAs to catch up to the 5, it appears in a bit of No-Mans land
Last edited:
rathcoole_exile
Guest Author
- Messages
- 3,925
- Likes
- 767
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
Just a thought on the strategic level
If China is now using its huge trade surpluses, not to buy US debt to fund its various useless wars around the globe but to buy up companies producing raw materials. Surely this is another major problem those half-wits in Washington haven't allowed for. What if China turns off the copper, aluminium etc, etc, supplies bit by bit. Bush and co. seemed determined to annoy Iran, Venezuela enough, for them to turn the oil taps off - perhaps only supplying other countries.
The anti-US countries could easily gang-up and put a punitive surcharge on all their raw material exports to the US ! Something the US has been doing to others for decades. That would ruin their competitive edge in a matter of months.
If China is now using its huge trade surpluses, not to buy US debt to fund its various useless wars around the globe but to buy up companies producing raw materials. Surely this is another major problem those half-wits in Washington haven't allowed for. What if China turns off the copper, aluminium etc, etc, supplies bit by bit. Bush and co. seemed determined to annoy Iran, Venezuela enough, for them to turn the oil taps off - perhaps only supplying other countries.
The anti-US countries could easily gang-up and put a punitive surcharge on all their raw material exports to the US ! Something the US has been doing to others for decades. That would ruin their competitive edge in a matter of months.
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,807
- Likes
- 4,007
The real killer will be emerging new technologies where US patents will become null and void and the de facto standards will be applied by Asian tigers (where ever the markets and purchasing power is).
Nasdaq is way over hyped imo. Other than few gizmos there is nothing substantial that will drive markets forward. I wrote about this last November but timing is a little off and Nasdaq still surged ahead.
Microsoft now talking about 2008 Server and Vista but not a great rush in the enterprise corporations.
Cisco demand saturated.
Some hope for WiFi technology but still limited. G3 tech yet to take off.
Mobile phones about to become extinct with free Skype and internet calls.
Ipod is a flash in the pan and in couple of years replicas at 1/10th the price will kill off profits.
I think US competitive edge lost already. Unless some new kill technology emerges Markets cookie or crackers take your pick.
Who can imagine a sill game like Halo 3 with a mere $300m sales can turn the fortunes of Microsoft a multi-billion dollar company.
I CALL THIS LIVING OFF CRUMBS... Hence, the US defecits... Enron and the rest all creative accounting...
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
As always here I am, to put all opposing arguments against yours
No hard feelings, I don't care about fundawhat? anyway... because it's the weekend and all I figured why not tease the guy a bit
(1) First of all, since when do markets need anything substantial to drive them forwards?
(2) Vista not a great rush in the business world? Neither was XP... Microsoft has enough other milk cows and operating systems have never been it's most important source of profits.
(3) Mobile phones to become extinct?
Mobile phones are becoming increasingly more versatile devices, people are still buying new & more powerful devices (smartphone convergence) and last but not least there's still plenty of room for growth in the land of the rising sun. The Gartner Group predicted (in 2005: http://www.gartner.com/press_releases/asset_132473_11.html) 1 billion sales in 2009, but that number was already reached in 2006! (4) There are already plenty of Ipod replicas around. I'd say for quite some time (Neo MP3 players for instance look pretty alike, although in black). The customer who wants to buy an Ipod will buy one, regardless whether there is a replica around for a third or a tenth of the price. Otherwise, why do people keep buying brand name products instead of generic brands in the supermarket?
(5) The US still leads the ranking in the world's most competitive countries list (http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global Competitiveness Report/index.htm). I doubt this is going to change any time soon as reports of low-quality Chinese products are not exactly boosting consumer confidence.
(6) Creative accounting? Enron? Always been there, always will...
(7) "Who can imagine a sill game like Halo 3 with a mere $300m sales can turn the fortunes of Microsoft a multi-billion dollar company." Actually... games & game consoles are finding it's way into more and more households. Video games are an exploding media channel, gaming is no longer considered as an anti-social activity instead it has become a part of the living room.
For the record, none of this means has any relevance to what I think the stock market will do. As one can always find reasons why the market must go up, or must go down...
black bear
Guest
- Messages
- 1,303
- Likes
- 165
2 bobs worth
Hi all,
Im joining in to
Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. - Lao Tzu
addition
The markets can remain irrational longer than any of us can remain solvent
my 2 bobs worth :cheesy:
Andy AKA
As always here I am, to put all opposing arguments against yours
No hard feelings, I don't care about fundawhat? anyway... because it's the weekend and all I figured why not tease the guy a bit
(1) First of all, since when do markets need anything substantial to drive them forwards?
(2) Vista not a great rush in the business world? Neither was XP... Microsoft has enough other milk cows and operating systems have never been it's most important source of profits.
(3) Mobile phones to become extinct?
(4) There are already plenty of Ipod replicas around. I'd say for quite some time (Neo MP3 players for instance look pretty alike, although in black). The customer who wants to buy an Ipod will buy one, regardless whether there is a replica around for a third or a tenth of the price. Otherwise, why do people keep buying brand name products instead of generic brands in the supermarket?
(5) The US still leads the ranking in the world's most competitive countries list (http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global Competitiveness Report/index.htm). I doubt this is going to change any time soon as reports of low-quality Chinese products are not exactly boosting consumer confidence.
(6) Creative accounting? Enron? Always been there, always will...
(7) "Who can imagine a sill game like Halo 3 with a mere $300m sales can turn the fortunes of Microsoft a multi-billion dollar company." Actually... games & game consoles are finding it's way into more and more households. Video games are an exploding media channel, gaming is no longer considered as an anti-social activity instead it has become a part of the living room.
For the record, none of this means has any relevance to what I think the stock market will do. As one can always find reasons why the market must go up, or must go down...
Hi all,
Im joining in to
Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. - Lao Tzu
addition
The markets can remain irrational longer than any of us can remain solvent
my 2 bobs worth :cheesy:
Andy AKA
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
What bugs me is not the demise of the USA through misplaced evangelical do-gooding and stupidity but that the civilized world's future is also bound up with theirs and they are losing it and don't even know it.
I am happy for the Third World countries to prosper and look forward with interest to see what they produce ( films, inventions etc. ) but do not look forward to some sort of Islamist sharia law/ Communist China ( with Russia, Iran, North Korea etc, lurking in the background ) New Age taking over. Maybe every bright era is followed by a dark age in the natural course of things.
I am happy for the Third World countries to prosper and look forward with interest to see what they produce ( films, inventions etc. ) but do not look forward to some sort of Islamist sharia law/ Communist China ( with Russia, Iran, North Korea etc, lurking in the background ) New Age taking over. Maybe every bright era is followed by a dark age in the natural course of things.
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,807
- Likes
- 4,007
As always here I am, to put all opposing arguments against yours
No hard feelings, I don't care about fundawhat? anyway... because it's the weekend and all I figured why not tease the guy a bit
(1) First of all, since when do markets need anything substantial to drive them forwards? All the time. Depends on your time frame. Whilst TA rules in short term, the markets can't buck the long term. There is a fundamental explanation to where the DOW is today. It's call the fall in the dollar. Ignore it at your peril. Dow may continue to rise as dollar falls. That's fundamentals for you. Watch out for earnings though.
(2) Vista not a great rush in the business world? Neither was XP... Microsoft has enough other milk cows and operating systems have never been it's most important source of profits.Well XP was introduced around October, 2001 in the UK. Pace of change slowing imo.
(3) Mobile phones to become extinct?
(4) There are already plenty of Ipod replicas around. I'd say for quite some time (Neo MP3 players for instance look pretty alike, although in black). The customer who wants to buy an Ipod will buy one, regardless whether there is a replica around for a third or a tenth of the price. Otherwise, why do people keep buying brand name products instead of generic brands in the supermarket? Brands and product differentiation will be with us. True. But 4.55MHz IBM PCs used to sell for £3000+. Now IBM sell services and sold their hw division to the Chineese. Tells you a story. Compaq the IBM clone killer has replaced HPs hardware too and now called HP Compaq. There is another story for you. Ignore these fundamental changes in market at your peril.
New emerging technology in IT is virtualisation and terminal emulation. ESX VMware and Citrix are leading names if anybody wants a pie in the future. This will mean HP will take a hit in server sales.
(5) The US still leads the ranking in the world's most competitive countries list (http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global Competitiveness Report/index.htm). I doubt this is going to change any time soon as reports of low-quality Chinese products are not exactly boosting consumer confidence.I think they said the same about the Japaneese post WWII. Looked down on the little Japaneese businessmen who asked lots of simple questions they did. This is the first phase. Next phase will be rising quality and prices.
(6) Creative accounting? Enron? Always been there, always will... And people like you will buy their story... :cheesy:
(7) "Who can imagine a sill game like Halo 3 with a mere $300m sales can turn the fortunes of Microsoft a multi-billion dollar company." Actually... games & game consoles are finding it's way into more and more households. Video games are an exploding media channel, gaming is no longer considered as an anti-social activity instead it has become a part of the living room.Playing games does not add to productivity. In fact too much of it makes you stupid and obese imo. I'm sure I must sound like an old geezer waving a finger and I don't like to say I told you so but I can't help my self. Having said that I'm really tempted to get an XBox or PS3 but when ever I think where am I going to put this and will I have the time and the Mrs wagging her finger at me makes me shy away.
For the record, none of this means has any relevance to what I think the stock market will do. As one can always find reasons why the market must go up, or must go down...
Agreed no need to add declaration. How about Barclays funding crises... Banking crises back on the cards.
I'm short on the DOW fwiw.
PS. CAN WE PLEASE DROP THIS FA TA STUFF GUYS. OR OPEN ANOTHER THREAD TO DISCUSS IT. JUST LIKE TO SAY I KNOW I KNOW I KNOW!
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
I'm short on the DOW fwiw.
PS. CAN WE PLEASE DROP THIS FA TA STUFF GUYS. OR OPEN ANOTHER THREAD TO DISCUSS IT. JUST LIKE TO SAY I KNOW I KNOW I KNOW!
Actually, I wasn't trying to be a supporter of neither. I was merely pointing out some facts, while you on the other hand were giving a lot of "imo"-statements
No hard feelings Atilla, you're entitled to your opinion and I actually think if we were to open a new thread on the subject it might lead to some interesting discussions. But as this thread is about 50/50 FA-TA you probably won't mind me following up on your post just to say some final words on the matter:
(1) "There is a fundamental explanation to where the DOW is today." Please tell me, what's fundamental about GOOG at $710/share?
(2) What is the "long term"? You mentioned the Nasdaq being overhyped and you said "I wrote about it last November but timing is a little off and Nasdaq still surged ahead". A little off?
We are 30% higher... so either there is something fundamentally wrong or TA doés work on the longer term?Edit: might be an interesting read:
How do technical traders fit into the greater scheme of things?
Last edited:
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
I could go on and on about gaming really but statements like this are the best example of how the public thinks. In fact it has similarities to trading. Society doesn't want to reward people who don't "work" in the classic sence of the word for a living. Trading isn't considered as a "real" profession by many. Society makes you feel guilty if you enjoy gaming because it's like "wasting time". It's not "productive". Slowly, but gradually the mind of the masses is changing though.
When adults think of video games, they envision blood, gore, killings,... As a result, many try restrict their children's gaming time or think it's a waste of time and their kids should be doing something more "productive"
. Research however has pointed out on more than one occasion that gaming can make you smarter, better focused, better trained to handle complex real-life situations, enhance spatial skills, improved hand-eye coordination,... "go read a book", "go outside and play", "go study some more",... remarkable who narrow-minded we still are, thinking that what was best for us also is best for others.
I could go on and on for hours but -for the record- I'm not much of a gamer myself and I don't have a console. From time to time I do engage in what some like to call a "brainless hobby".
If you wish to pursue this, I'm all open for new discussions but perhaps another thread is better suited... Sorry mods, if you want to move the latest posts to another thread, fine by me. As of tomorrow, I'll promise to be back on-topic! As for now, going to spend some time on my dumb antisocial hobby
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,807
- Likes
- 4,007
Actually, I wasn't trying to be a supporter of neither. I was merely pointing out some facts, while you on the other hand were giving a lot of "imo"-statements
No hard feelings Atilla, you're entitled to your opinion and I actually think if we were to open a new thread on the subject it might lead to some interesting discussions. But as this thread is about 50/50 FA-TA you probably won't mind me following up on your post just to say some final words on the matter:
(1) "There is a fundamental explanation to where the DOW is today." Please tell me, what's fundamental about GOOG at $710/share? I agree there is no substance to it. In particular the barriers to entry are virtually nil. A good £200m could setup a competing search site with a kewl name and advertising with little effort. All hype.
I would add the reason where the DOW is today is more to do with excess liquidity and fall in the value of the dollar. What is anybody to do with all the billions of dollars in circulation but to invest given saturated demand. Invest in property or stocks and shares or commodities.
(2) What is the "long term"? You mentioned the Nasdaq being overhyped and you said "I wrote about it last November but timing is a little off and Nasdaq still surged ahead". A little off?
Hi Firewalker, no offence taken I thought I preempt all the declarations that's all. Perhaps I shouldn't have shouted in capitals. Sorry everyone...
Here is a long term chart of where I think we are heading on a FA level represented by TA...
Attachments
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,807
- Likes
- 4,007
I could go on and on about gaming really but statements like this are the best example of how the public thinks. In fact it has similarities to trading. Society doesn't want to reward people who don't "work" in the classic sence of the word for a living. Trading isn't considered as a "real" profession by many. Society makes you feel guilty if you enjoy gaming because it's like "wasting time". It's not "productive". Slowly, but gradually the mind of the masses is changing though.
When adults think of video games, they envision blood, gore, killings,... As a result, many try restrict their children's gaming time or think it's a waste of time and their kids should be doing something more "productive"
"go read a book", "go outside and play", "go study some more",... remarkable who narrow-minded we still are, thinking that what was best for us also is best for others.
I could go on and on for hours but -for the record- I'm not much of a gamer myself and I don't have a console. From time to time I do engage in what some like to call a "brainless hobby".
If you wish to pursue this, I'm all open for new discussions but perhaps another thread is better suited... Sorry mods, if you want to move the latest posts to another thread, fine by me. As of tomorrow, I'll promise to be back on-topic! As for now, going to spend some time on my dumb antisocial hobby
We are the parents you describe in this blog FW. We are concerned about are two using the internet excessively for youtube, and Cbbies and Toonatik. My son is already talking about features of Sky boxes and he is only 8. However, he is well into lego at the moment so we are trying to foster alternative activities to engage them. My little girl is also very competent at using the computer and she is 6.
However, I still hold the view these games are limited in what they give children.
A little like smoking and mobile phones the damaging effects will be in the years ahead.
The low attention and concentration span of children as well as inability to communicate are down to computers and lack of parental attention. Kids socialisation is playing computer console games. Adults socialising is drinking.
Ability to grow vegetables, build things with wood or metal, engineering etc etc are all down the pan. Also, inability to follow instructions or do what one doesn't like. I think capitalism and maximisation of profits and individualism will weigh heavily in the years ahead.
Bringing the thread back on topic, I don't know how many billions the gaming industry or internet advertising is worth, but does it warrant the valuations placed on Microsoft or Google?
No I don't think so.
black bear
Guest
- Messages
- 1,303
- Likes
- 165
Peace Brothers
FW & Atilla
Stop fighting, errrrrrrrr discussing things, like Clint Eastwood said in Dirty Harry
Opinions are like A... Holes, every one as em
Me I have loads and they are not worth a S.........
Have FUN , and remember its SUNDAY, good will to all men, day of peace etc,
Andy AKA
FW & Atilla
Stop fighting, errrrrrrrr discussing things, like Clint Eastwood said in Dirty Harry
Opinions are like A... Holes, every one as em
Me I have loads and they are not worth a S.........
Have FUN , and remember its SUNDAY, good will to all men, day of peace etc,
Andy AKA
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
I never said those abilities were less meaningful. Neither did I argue that being able to find one's way in a virtual world is all a kid should be able to do. Obviously there should be a healthy variety between the types of activities children engage in, with or without friends. My only point is that you should be critical about what is "common knowledge". Years ago people argued that you should eat at least x amount of meat per week...nowadays it's rather the opposite. It never hurts to take the opposite stand and question yourself.
Bringing the thread back on topic, I don't know how many billions the gaming industry or internet advertising is worth, but does it warrant the valuations placed on Microsoft or Google?
No I don't think so.
I never said it did... nor did I say I disagreed with your short on the DOW (fwiw)
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,807
- Likes
- 4,007
FW & Atilla
Stop fighting, errrrrrrrr discussing things, like Clint Eastwood said in Dirty Harry
Opinions are like A... Holes, every one as em
Me I have loads and they are not worth a S.........
Have FUN , and remember its SUNDAY, good will to all men, day of peace etc,
Andy AKA
Hi guys,
I'm not fighting. I'm not arguing either.
Just commenting...
Perhaps it's just me guys. Not known for being tactful or delicate. :cheesy:
Bit of weekend blabber...
All Good Stuff Lads
Also.........
Goog @ 720 would be 50% off the August lows.....
720 is also 2 x 360......... 360 is one of Gann's special numbers...
Google has risen over 8 fold since IPO ...(i.e over 700% increase)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As Atilla/FW may know ..............
Vmware (VMW) has risen 4 fold since ipo just 10wks ago....
Thanks for the heads up lads...... What's happened to the free flow of information ??
=========================================================================
Also.........
Goog @ 720 would be 50% off the August lows.....
720 is also 2 x 360......... 360 is one of Gann's special numbers...
Google has risen over 8 fold since IPO ...(i.e over 700% increase)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As Atilla/FW may know ..............
Vmware (VMW) has risen 4 fold since ipo just 10wks ago....
Thanks for the heads up lads...... What's happened to the free flow of information ??
=========================================================================
This was interesting too........
The use of "I" and not "we" was quite telling .....
Hi guys,
I'm not fighting. I'm not arguing either.
Just commenting...
Perhaps it's just me guys. Not known for being tactful or delicate. :cheesy:
Bit of weekend blabber...
The use of "I" and not "we" was quite telling .....
