Dow 2007

its a lot more fun just sitting here watching it instead of pouring thru charts looking for reasons to make decisions
 
maybe next time you find yourself in what looks like a trend post 7 on the dow take a leaf out of sage greys book and take a chance on giving all your profit back and let it run and run and run :)
 
jacinto said:
kind of a policymakers view on what is coming, so bear with it. it is a bit of game theory

1) crisis contained to a financial scare: the policy maker signals lowering rates to alleviate a crisis (that is financial, not economical) typically means the market will have a run at me until i give in, lower rates, and the party continues. result: investors are bailed out.

2) crisis spills over to economy: similar to the Savings and Loans issue in the 80s. need to bail out the sector. bail out the sector typically means also bailing out households or the bailout wont work and the economy is hit. result: higher federal deficit, bailed out consumers. investors typically take some pain.

IMHO those are the options. the market smells 2 things: blood and will go for blood until the policy maker gives a bit of chocolate to ease the thirst of blood. :cheesy:

edit: translation: short and short till they lower rates
Click to expand...

a) the animal did smell blood and found it

b) blood is still not enough. animal still needs more.

c) policy makers dunno how to play chicken.

d) chicken game ends when animal busts 12,500 :cheesy:
 
tightstops said:
maybe next time you find yourself in what looks like a trend post 7 on the dow take a leaf out of sage greys book and take a chance on giving all your profit back and let it run and run and run :)
Click to expand...

yeah it'll certainly be in my thoughts next time .. you got a link to sage grey's post? .. or is it as simple as : "the dow often sets a trend after 7pm and sticks to it"

don't get distracted though
 
this bits not so much fun
go to us shares on the site is very recent thread
he trades shares but is very aware of what the broader market is doing when he does so
 
jacinto said:
a) the animal did smell blood and found it

b) blood is still not enough. animal still needs more.

c) policy makers dunno how to play chicken.

d) chicken game ends when animal busts 12,500 :cheesy:
Click to expand...

Greenspan now consults for some hedge funds I hear ..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6983051.stm
"Greenspan points to market 'fear'
Alan Greenspan
Alan Greenspan has been more outspoken since leaving the Fed
Current financial turmoil is identical to that seen in earlier stock market crashes, Alan Greenspan has warned. "

so bad data today, Greenspan alludes to some crashing .. his hedge fund friends buy at the bottom as world market continue plunge on Monday .. interest rate lowers Monday as .. bang huge profit .. just a thought:LOL:
 
shortorlong said:
Greenspan now consults for some hedge funds I hear ..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6983051.stm
"Greenspan points to market 'fear'
Alan Greenspan
Alan Greenspan has been more outspoken since leaving the Fed
Current financial turmoil is identical to that seen in earlier stock market crashes, Alan Greenspan has warned. "

so bad data today, Greenspan alludes to some crashing .. his hedge fund friends buy at the bottom as world market continue plunge on Monday .. interest rate lowers Monday as .. bang huge profit .. just a thought:LOL:
Click to expand...

everyone keeps banging on about interest rate cuts coming to the markets rescue...don't forget the Fed cut rates aggresively between 01-02 and the market still tanked..after perhaps an initial burst,why would cuts save the market now....after all those cuts 6 years ago are what caused this fiasco in the first place...:rolleyes:
 
tightstops said:
nice call
im confident the low for the years in tho
Click to expand...

Thank You .... but as you may know it's not all my own work ...

You may recall Ed Hyman saying specifically that he expected jobs to get hit and was a little surprised it hadn't happened but was confident it would happen... that was all I needed to hear with NFP due today it was a risk worth taking imo :LOL:

Lows are in ? Now that is a big call ........ but you may be right.. who knows ?

I know many traders say trade only what you see but I think it's handy to have some kind of frame of reference and contingency plans just in case ..
 
Last edited:
2468steve said:
everyone keeps banging on about interest rate cuts coming to the markets rescue...don't forget the Fed cut rates aggresively between 01-02 and the market still tanked..after perhaps an initial burst,why would cuts save the market now....after all those cuts 6 years ago are what caused this fiasco in the first place...:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

true ... there doesn't seem to be an end to this sub prime strife .. maybe after all of the major financial firms produce their results whenever that may be ..
 
tightstops said:
out at 9 on the dot
not a bad result
have a good weekend :)
Click to expand...

Given my pre-NFP short., that would have been the absolute perfect exit for me, and would have netted me three grand. I set a target of +50 when I shorted, and held that though. I'm very very very upset with myself - short 4 contracts from close to the HOD with my entry never tested, and I get a measly 50 points, with another 20 later in the day which took me about 3 hours to scalp off. I should leave the 1m alone on days like this, but I was bored and wanted to improve on my 50 pips. Net +70 for the day, which is pretty sad given the circumstances.

I'll pop in when we roll over to YMZ7. Have a good weekend all. The sub-prime strife is a rebranded version of the same strife which has caused (mini) crashes before. People really don't change. We'll get another one in a couple of years.

I should really remove that link to my "Trading the Debt Crisis" thread from my sig - it is rather redundant. Interestingly, I did manage to trade it reasonably well by my standards, and have had my most profitable days, weeks, months, and a quarter ever, however I've still drastically underperformed what I should have done. All just a variation on my trading today - getting into a great position, covering too soon, and then taking small "scalp" trades most of the way down, capturing less than 20% of the range.

* - I'm a little wary of the term scalping - I always understood it to mean very short term trading (perhaps inside the spread), with very small profit targets. However, in the SB world it apparently refers to punters ripping off SB on bad prices, so I am a little wary of using it. What else do we call scalping (the short term trading kind, not the chancing-your-luck kind)?

Have a good weekend all. See you in YMZ7.
 
2468steve said:
everyone keeps banging on about interest rate cuts coming to the markets rescue...don't forget the Fed cut rates aggresively between 01-02 and the market still tanked..after perhaps an initial burst,why would cuts save the market now....after all those cuts 6 years ago are what caused this fiasco in the first place...:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

I'm all over shorting this the minute the rate cut rally runs out of steam. Hopefully I'll be around to trade it, if not make some pips for me as well!
 
Where's the next bubble ?

When the tech bubble burst and fed got around to slashing rates ...one door closed and two (maybe more opened) commodities started it's big bull market and real estate came to life in a big big way...

This time around when the fed starts cutting where will the money flow to ... other than bonds ?:cheesy:
 
Who said fibs were ********? High of week is bang on the 61.8. Down from here?

The Fed will cut rates, but that won't help the markets all that much. Also, the banks are reminded now of the stupidity of artificially low rates. Also, the stagflation issue....

HS - interesting point. I hope commodities again.....they should be kept bullish enough by demand in the developing world and the China. (I'm thinking metals, grains). Also, a Fed rate cut would be bullish for oil. I'm thinking commodities will have another bull run - wheat was limit-bid twice this week (I almost got in on that, but lacked the stones and missed out on £1k profit).
 

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Hook Shot said:
When the tech bubble burst and fed got around to slashing rates ...one door closed and two (maybe more opened) commodities started it's big bull market and real estate came to life in a big big way...

This time around when the fed starts cutting where will the money flow to ... other than bonds ?:cheesy:
Click to expand...

Another tech bubble?
 
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