lurkerlurker
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I'm expecting a pretty sharp jump in response to the nonfarm employment change number this month. This number usually makes for some volatility if nothing else.
lurkerlurker
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August Employment
Looks like I was quite right on this. Given how the last 2 months has impacted on Construction and Financials over in the States, anyone who though the consensus going into the number was remotely accurate was rather silly indeed. I shorted heavily before the number, and covered at 13302. My 50 point target had been hit, and I am not looking to trade too heavily these days, so I thought best to get out. The number was more bearish than even I expected, and to be honest it would have been wiser to hold with a BE stop as the pre-number offer isn't going to be seen again all day! However, not to get greedy or anything - a good trade, and therefore I end another week up in pips and pounds!
Have a good weekend all. I will be livid if I drop in later and see the Dow at 13000, but nevermind.
Looks like I was quite right on this. Given how the last 2 months has impacted on Construction and Financials over in the States, anyone who though the consensus going into the number was remotely accurate was rather silly indeed. I shorted heavily before the number, and covered at 13302. My 50 point target had been hit, and I am not looking to trade too heavily these days, so I thought best to get out. The number was more bearish than even I expected, and to be honest it would have been wiser to hold with a BE stop as the pre-number offer isn't going to be seen again all day! However, not to get greedy or anything - a good trade, and therefore I end another week up in pips and pounds!
Have a good weekend all. I will be livid if I drop in later and see the Dow at 13000, but nevermind.
shortorlong
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I see what you mean
I guess the market didn't like it .. Nonfarm Employment Change was negative when they expected it to rise .. pretty soon though they are going to say the market rose as bad employment figures increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut ... watching .. may not trade
lurkerlurker
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I see what you mean
I guess the market didn't like it .. Nonfarm Employment Change was negative when they expected it to rise .. pretty soon though they are going to say the market rose as bad employment figures increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut ... watching .. may not trade
Look at EURUSD in the time leading up to the number - we were more realistic about the American labour market than they were -they just think they can ignore reality, have their Fed artificially support corporate bond and equity markets, and think that makes everything OK. I guess they forgot about their labour market - quel suprise. EURUSD traders were expecting a bad number - I guess the market could come back on news (or suspicion) of an impending rate cut, but I'm not bothered - I took my pips at the target and didn't get greedy.
Good trading all - I'd really avoid the Dow today though - more than usual, anything could happen. I really wish I had shorted ES instead of YM though. Have a good weekend.
You shorted heavily 'before' a big number/s today?
nkruger
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You have forgotten to tell us which way you're trading.........
nkruger
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Whoops, sorry. You did. At 13:49, my mistake.....
lurkerlurker
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lurkerlurker
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Well, if you insist on being like that!
Honestly - I appreciate that one should make live calls here first. However, it was pretty obvious that the nonfarm employment change was going to be < 118K and that The Street were pretty deluded. Take a look at EUR/USD this morning for more indications.
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Well, enjoy the profits.
BTW, have you decided to keep the amounts confidential for a reason, as previously you were open about that kind of information?
lurkerlurker
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Ian, regarding the amounts, I've discovered that on these boards it is generally more proper to quote "pips not pounds" when referring to P&L. After all, a 100 point trade at £1pp is worth the same as a 10 point trade at £10pp, however one is more "right" than the other!
In fact, a well respected member of these boards once told me:
"as a general rule most traders on this site only quote the pips points they make or lose without commenting on the actual monies.
It's not so much the money as the ability to make good calls and make pips.
If one person places a £1 pp and another £100 pp on a bet than at 10 pips gain the rewards are £10 or £1000."
The profits have me finishing another week up, which is nice since I've not been trading much if at all recently. I really should have been a little more ambitious with my target than 50 points - a BE stop would have been a better idea, and I just didn't have the required nerve to hold this position all the way down, although I see no reason why I couldn't have held it until at least 13,250. I didn't really want to be exposed to much of the aftermath, especially if "Uncle Ben" starts shooting his mouth off again.
How did you get on with Simon / CapitalSpreads - I note that despite about a dozen posts from various members asking him for explanations and questions he has been somewhat quiet!
In fact, a well respected member of these boards once told me:
"as a general rule most traders on this site only quote the pips points they make or lose without commenting on the actual monies.
It's not so much the money as the ability to make good calls and make pips.
If one person places a £1 pp and another £100 pp on a bet than at 10 pips gain the rewards are £10 or £1000."
The profits have me finishing another week up, which is nice since I've not been trading much if at all recently. I really should have been a little more ambitious with my target than 50 points - a BE stop would have been a better idea, and I just didn't have the required nerve to hold this position all the way down, although I see no reason why I couldn't have held it until at least 13,250. I didn't really want to be exposed to much of the aftermath, especially if "Uncle Ben" starts shooting his mouth off again.
How did you get on with Simon / CapitalSpreads - I note that despite about a dozen posts from various members asking him for explanations and questions he has been somewhat quiet!
114 broken..this opens up 111.....Dow getting down to 13030 cash is more than possible today now....
108.85 to be precise :cheesy:
lurkerlurker
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Yes, and I've been out of the market since 13:31. I feel like a bit of a moron for not jumping on the momentum in the forex, or at least holding my Dow short below 13300, but my target was hit and I didn't really want to expose my account to more risk today.
lurkerlurker
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