Dow 2007

[Hook Shot]

Two wickets in 3 balls whatz goin' on...... ?

Cramer said Friday his indicators told him to cover all shorts ...... saing you can always put them back on later if you wish after a rally...... lets see.......

He expected a rally within 48hrs of Friday

Some might say it was obvious but ........... it DID rally on cue...

The hard part now for ME anyway is trying to gauge the scope of this rally since Swenlin of Decisionpoint had late July as big 20wk turning point - implying* the magnitude of the rally may surprise on the upside can't remember post number but think the post was on 26-July for those who didn't see it....

* - just my interpretation....

 

[Hook Shot]

Oil is Flying.......again

 

[lurkerlurker]

Damn, I was trying to buy crude at $74 not so long ago and didn't get filled.

Made a few Dow scalps today, so +4 net of commissions/spread. Better than a loss. Major numbers for the rest of the week, so I should do okay.

Interesting Telegraph Article:

UBS has raised its head above the parapet to call the bottom of the current stock market correction, advising investors to put their money in large caps with cheap valuations and low debt.

Last Thursday's 3pc fall in European and US equity markets sparked fears of a wider pullback amid concerns of a global credit crunch that could hit the appetite for M&A activity and leveraged buyouts.

But Nick Nelson, London-based strategist at UBS, argued today that "the majority of our indicators suggest the that we are close to the trough of the correction".
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He pointed out that previous bull market corrections have seen an average 8.4pc gap between the peak and the trough.

With European shares having fallen by 6.7pc from recent highs over the last nine trading days and stocks looking cheaply valued, UBS thinks it could be time to buy shares again.

Mr Nelson explained: "The market is now trading on a sub-12x price/earnings multiple for 2008, towards the bottom of its four year range and the pressure on earnings is on the upside."​

If I may paraphrase that: "we need to dump our overvalued stock and there isn't enough volume. Please buy these 'undervalued shares' so we can sell you our positions". Time to get shorting?

 

[lurkerlurker]

Believe it or not, I sold 452 a few minutes ago. Of course, I had to nervously cover it for +1 net. However, I got back on board short 13383 and covered for +30 when I realised that 300 round number on cash was holding. +35 for the day. Not bad pips!

My trading has been awful today - I've definitely overtraded - poor discipline on exits also, with the exception of the last trade which I held for target.

 

[Hook Shot]

Believe it or not, I sold 452 a few minutes ago. Of course, I had to nervously cover it for +1 net. However, I got back on board short 13383 and covered for +30 when I realised that 300 round number on cash was holding. +35 for the day. Not bad pips!

My trading has been awful today - I've definitely overtraded - poor discipline on exits also, with the exception of the last trade which I held for target.

Your Trading has been awful today .... mine cost me £600 in lost opp... I'm sicker than a xxxx'n parrot - sound like Basil faulty sketch... no called it like a pro and played it like a banker..

 

[lurkerlurker]

Your Trading has been awful today .... mine cost me £600 in lost opp... I'm sicker than a xxxx'n parrot - sound like Basil faulty sketch... no called it like a pro and played it like a banker..

Funny expression. Sorry to hear that mate. To be fair, you are a good enough trader with a good track record that bad days are hiccups to you. I was actually beginning to worry about being able to trade there. Well, I did okay in the end, +44, a little shaky, but no matter. Hopefully I'll do better emotionally and trade with strict discipline tomorrow.

I should start making observations in my journal again.

£600 lost op stinks, but is better than a loss of anything, or even £600!

Better trading tomorrow for us both mate.

 

[2468steve]

Your Trading has been awful today .... mine cost me £600 in lost opp... I'm sicker than a xxxx'n parrot - sound like Basil faulty sketch... no called it like a pro and played it like a banker..

As the saying goes..."better to be out of a trade wishing you was in,than being in a trade wishing you was out ! "........never mind m8,tomorrows another day..

 

[Hook Shot]

As the saying goes..."better to be out of a trade wishing you was in,than being in a trade wishing you was out ! "........never mind m8,tomorrows another day..

Manana always manyana ..... I'm off to rehab ... for super chilled guinness the foreign one 7% abv I think .... I even saw the firm dax (7550 cash) and off to kitchen to fill mi face and came back and that vanished too...

Thanks Lads....

Ps I'm taking responsibility for the foul up...... and upgrading my monthly target for August.. Think (+) blah blah blah........

 

[2468steve]

Another vicious selloff into close...possibility of H & S forming on Dow with 13200 neckline (cash) giving target if broken of 12400...tomorrow should see fireworks one way or another..

 

[Hook Shot]

Steve or anyone really given the dow is so weak why is ftse cash still available at close to 6300 ... other than high oil ??

 

[laptop1]

Your Trading has been awful today .... mine cost me £600 in lost opp... I'm sicker than a xxxx'n parrot - sound like Basil faulty sketch... no called it like a pro and played it like a banker..

I was going to write on this thread to warn traders the other day, but did not, because everyone seem to be making 200 points here and some making 700 point, so I didn't bother. But I read hook post saying he lost 600 quid, this may be a lot of money for some, so I wont to warn you all, to be on your toes and honour you stops cut you trading size in half, adjust you normal stops and target, because what worked a few week ago will not work now.

Lets say you trade 4 lots with a 1.75 stop on ES maybe you should use a stop of 3.00 points trading with 2 lots....same with your target, they need to be bigger.....something for you to think about.

Be careful, I had a loosing day Monday but I adjusted quickly, I have experience these market conditions before...This may be here to stay for a while remember the up tick rule has been taken away from USA stocks, that has been in force since the early 30s after the 1928 crash.....I had 1.5 slippage on ES today not good.......

 

[Hook Shot]

Ubs may have a point.....

Damn, I was trying to buy crude at $74 not so long ago and didn't get filled.

Made a few Dow scalps today, so +4 net of commissions/spread. Better than a loss. Major numbers for the rest of the week, so I should do okay.

Interesting Telegraph Article:

UBS has raised its head above the parapet to call the bottom of the current stock market correction, advising investors to put their money in large caps with cheap valuations and low debt.

Last Thursday's 3pc fall in European and US equity markets sparked fears of a wider pullback amid concerns of a global credit crunch that could hit the appetite for M&A activity and leveraged buyouts.

But Nick Nelson, London-based strategist at UBS, argued today that "the majority of our indicators suggest the that we are close to the trough of the correction".
advertisement

He pointed out that previous bull market corrections have seen an average 8.4pc gap between the peak and the trough.

With European shares having fallen by 6.7pc from recent highs over the last nine trading days and stocks looking cheaply valued, UBS thinks it could be time to buy shares again.

Mr Nelson explained: "The market is now trading on a sub-12x price/earnings multiple for 2008, towards the bottom of its four year range and the pressure on earnings is on the upside."​

If I may paraphrase that: "we need to dump our overvalued stock and there isn't enough volume. Please buy these 'undervalued shares' so we can sell you our positions". Time to get shorting?

Many big caps are cheap on trad metrix they may be saying don't throw the baby out with the bathwater........ perhaps ... it was funny how in UK investors piled into Royal Bank and Glaxo today- both have been touted by value monsters... for ages!

At the weekend I noted banks and some (solid) real estate companies had unusually high yields .......... unless banks cut their divis or tenants stop paying their rent something is probably amiss... but I understand your cynicism

 

[2468steve]

Steve or anyone really given the dow is so weak why is ftse cash still available at close to 6300 ... other than high oil ??

FTSE is a different animal at the mo...it's suffered more on downside last week.FTSE is following SPX which are both in their Feb/Mar sell off areas...FTSE just below 200MA,SPX just above....Dow has some catching up to do on downside...it's 200MA is around 12800 and it's Feb/Mar area is 12400 which ties in with that H&S pattern I mentioned in last post.....Dow will either save this market or break ...if it breaks we are going back to March lows on FTSE and SPX....take a look at Russell 2000.That has led this bull market last 4 years,and is now almost back to March lows in space of 2 weeks

 

[Hook Shot]

Merci Beaucoup ....

FTSE is a different animal at the mo...it's suffered more on downside last week.FTSE is following SPX which are both in their Feb/Mar sell off areas...FTSE just below 200MA,SPX just above....Dow has some catching up to do on downside...it's 200MA is around 12800 and it's Feb/Mar area is 12400 which ties in with that H&S pattern I mentioned in last post.....Dow will either save this market or break ...if it breaks we are going back to March lows on FTSE and SPX....take a look at Russell 2000.That has led this bull market last 4 years,and is now almost back to March lows in space of 2 weeks

 

[2468steve]

HS,
also draw a trendline across lows on 4 year chart of FTSE,Dax and US indices

SPX comes in just above 1300
Dow........................11500
Dax..........................6500
FTSE........................ 6200

 

[AC007]

WFMI came down to $37 . This is what I call free money. I went long big time stop 36.39

 

[lurkerlurker]

YM Volatility, Equity Selloff, Paper Trading

Laptop, thanks for the advice. My P&L is glad that what didn't work a few weeks ago works now, and what worked a few weeks ago doesn't now! Still, I've been religiously keeping my size to £1pp and have been ready to bail as soon as the wind changed. Still, I've had 2 -30 trades, and a -50 (partly not my fault, problems with my bucketshop meant I couldn't get out on time). I'm trying to be careful. Saying that, I made +44 today, mostly out of the selloff into the close, which I only traded about half of.

HS, were I in a position to sink a few K into stocks through an ISA or something at the moment I might be looking for long term value buys. Unfortunately it does not suit my investment objectives to do so. I bought a large (for me) amount of shares in a commodity fund earlier in the year, CED2.L (subscribed to initial offering), and I intend to hold those. RBS and Glaxo don't suit me for short term speculation, and I am not looking to invest. I bet Buffet is buying, being "greedy when others are fearful" again!

Steve, some interesting points. I'd quite like to see some range downwards to 12,400 or so. This is looking increasingly possible with a new low put in today. Will watch Europe early tomorrow for signs of direction. I wonder how the Dow will take the ISM Manufacturing number today at 3pm? I'll be around to trade that (but no trades before on the Dow), and we shall see what it does from there. I would think the market is especially sensitive to bearish numbers right now...

For those of you who are interested, I have completed Firewalker99's rather useful YM mechanical paper trading challenge, and you may view the results on my journal. The system beats breakeven, so there is potential there. More importantly, that system combined with Atilla's has improved my trading and enforced some discipline, to the extent that I closed today for my eighth profitable day in a row. I did over trade today, and the discipline is becoming a problem again, but I am striving to improve.

I will try to do some position trading tomorrow, in addition to my news trade at 3pm. Steve makes a good point about the H&S pattern - I'm definitely short below 13200. Good trading all. I don't really mind up or down now, but I'm quite enjoying the bears having a turn.

 

[Hook Shot]

Wise words Oil Master....

I was going to write on this thread to warn traders the other day, but did not, because everyone seem to be making 200 points here and some making 700 point, so I didn't bother. But I read hook post saying he lost 600 quid, this may be a lot of money for some, so I wont to warn you all, to be on your toes and honour you stops cut you trading size in half, adjust you normal stops and target, because what worked a few week ago will not work now.

Lets say you trade 4 lots with a 1.75 stop on ES maybe you should use a stop of 3.00 points trading with 2 lots....same with your target, they need to be bigger.....something for you to think about.

Be careful, I had a loosing day Monday but I adjusted quickly, I have experience these market conditions before...This may be here to stay for a while remember the up tick rule has been taken away from USA stocks, that has been in force since the early 30s after the 1928 crash.....I had 1.5 slippage on ES today not good.......

minor point no money actually "lost" just missed opp due to screw up on my program trade/stops ...

 

[Hook Shot]

Steve or anyone really given the dow is so weak why is ftse cash still available at close to 6300 ... other than high oil ??

Just knew this 6300 cash was too good to be true . I'm BACK!!!!
now quoted at sub 6240 cash

 

[lurkerlurker]

Just knew this 6300 cash was too good to be true . I'm BACK!!!!
now quoted at sub 6240 cash

You're working late!

Is there anyone wanting to buy this? If the market opens beneath the 13200 support level, I think we're going for a ride down!