Dow 2007

[lurkerlurker]

Okay, my analysis of my second long from 14008 - I should have set stop to BE at +15; price returning to BE would have violated my entry criteria anyway. Instead I covered near a swing low for +6, and the market has since rallied as far as 14040. Not good. I need to be more disciplined about my exits. Next trade, I will write down the profit target, stoploss, and most importantly the objective alternate exit criteria I will use. Hopefully this will help me overcome the premature exits.

That being said, I think my first exit was correct, as it appeared that 14000 was being rejected - I was right to cover there, but the cover of the long at a great price of 14008 on a strong break of resistance which then became support was foolish. Not looking for a long re-entry at these prices. I have a feeling we may see some sell off today, so I will look for signals around 6pm when trading volume picks up again. I'd take another long on a convincing break of 14050, but not before.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi LL,
nice trade m8....never beat yourself up about taking a profit...I had a couple of days off Fri and 2day,away from market...need that break once in a while...currently flat ...

Hi Steve

I don't believe it is almost 5pm already. Thanks for the advice - I'm pleased enough with my pips for today, but I still think the second trade was faulty (although I am content to stand by my decision in the first trade). Stops to BE in future, not premature exits.

I'm seeing some interesting information on the charts. 4h price has gone down beneath the 21 DEMA, which rules out new longs. Something resembling a gravestone doji is forming on this hourly bar, and there is a candle with a very long upper tail on the previous 15m, and the current 15m bar is failing to break above the low of the last one. A bearish reversal pattern indeed.

I see more downside from here, and would "call" 14040 as the HOD. I think we will likely see sideways action for about an hour here, with a trend developing into the evening. As all these MAs are lagging indicators, some flat action would be nice to let them get in gear with market sentiment. I'm wary of shorts, and would really need to see a break below 14000 confirmed on volume and long covers in addition to the charts before I would take a position.

All in, it looks like absent a strong trend going into the evening I will stay flat, which makes a nice +10 pips for the day.

 

[lurkerlurker]

It appears that the bulls are still in control, and I regret not backing them further than 6 pips. My 1h charts have just given a long entry at 14028, while my 4h chart still has a negative MACD. When this MACD goes positive, and price remains above the 8 period DEMA I will buy, but if this is below 14050 I will wait for a convincing upside break.

 

[Kevin21]

went long way back at 41800

 

[lurkerlurker]

We are seeing a tight consolodation range here, with a declining MACD on the 15m. The last 15m bar put in support at 14020 and resistance at 14040. Will watch these levels both up and down for a break. We are seeing some topping here, but it could also be a continuation rectangle. Slow day indeed. Will be back at 18:30 to check again.

Kevin, I presume you mean 13800 for this instrument? Good trade in that case - I was short on Friday, but didn't reverse it into a long so close to the weekend.

 

[Kevin21]

ignore 41800 - another market, and on the wrong website lol. I backed YM at 13960 this morning

 

[lurkerlurker]

Price and DEMA crossover to the downside on 15m. Price below 8 DEMA on the 1h charts, 4h doji.

Looking to short a break of 14000 or buy a break of 14050 subject to confirmations. Most likely the signals won't be strong and we will see sme more range bound movement until EOD.

13 period DEMA on the 1h is holding at 14000 - a bounce from support would give a long entry in the direction of the medium term trend, with the ability to set tight 20 point stops.

 

[lurkerlurker]

1h chart signalled a long entry at 14028. I didn't take it. I need clearer signs of strength than this, and the stop would have to be pretty far away. Deferring to the 4h charts which remain uncertain.

Boards are pretty quiet today - perhaps I am overposting.

Guys, if you haven't already, please take a look at the T2W Charity Trading Account. We are trying to get the mods to approve multiple positions if the chosen one has traded through the entry by 09:30, so suggestions from traders would be appreciated. Thanks to counter_violent for the idea, and to the mods in getting an account with Capital Spreads.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Confirmed short signal no the 15m chart. We are about to see a test of 14000, and I am short on a break below that (which would also be a short on the 1h). If it holds, the same chart gives me a long on the bounce of the 13 DEMA.

 

[laptop1]

ignore 41800 - another market, and on the wrong website lol. I backed YM at 13960 this morning

Nice trade, low of the day or there about on Globex....Just wondering Kev did you happen to short the YM from the high of the day around 14042 also?

 

[Kevin21]

no i'm still in. Why don't you just worry about what you're doing...

 

[Kevin21]

oh yeah and the low of the day was 13932 after trading sideways for a few hours....

 

[lurkerlurker]

Is anyone actually trying to trade this? I'm considering taking the rest of the day off as things are so slow. Of course, if I do that the market will trend strongly into the close. Watching 14010 down and 14040 up, and my 1h/4h charts.

 

[ian]

I get a low on my chart of 13931 @ approx 11:30 pm.

Well done.

 

[ian]

Is anyone actually trying to trade this? I'm considering taking the rest of the day off as things are so slow. Of course, if I do that the market will trend strongly into the close. Watching 14010 down and 14040 up, and my 1h/4h charts.

I took a quickie from 14035 and covered at 025 and 027..

 

[laptop1]

no i'm still in. Why don't you just worry about what you're doing...

Im done for the day, Im only saying I don't want you to give all those gains back.. .. because there a high chance we see 13960/80 by the close....or did you get out at the high of the day to take your profit....Just having Fun Kev...wish I could make 500 points one day and the next make 730 points...Few!!! I do not make that in a month and I take it you was spreadbetting only a few months back?

 

[firewalker99]

Is anyone actually trying to trade this? I'm considering taking the rest of the day off as things are so slow. Of course, if I do that the market will trend strongly into the close. Watching 14010 down and 14040 up, and my 1h/4h charts.

Popped in bit later today.

Had a quick look at the charts and a short from the PDH would've turned out beautifully. I'm not sure why you aren't in? I am reading a high of 14035 on the futures price from last Friday. Today's high is 14042 so a short got triggered and as we speak the +40 target just reached.

Are you looking at a different chart? I am short for real from 14025, but I would've shorted higher but I've only just got back home.

 

[Atilla]

Popped in bit later today.

Had a quick look at the charts and a short from the PDH would've turned out beautifully. I'm not sure why you aren't in? I am reading a high of 14035 on the futures price from last Friday. Today's high is 14042 so a short got triggered and as we speak the +40 target just reached.

Are you looking at a different chart? I am short for real from 14025, but I would've shorted higher but I've only just got back home.

Looks like a long on the 4 hour charts to me.

However, I'm flat and probably remain so. Looks like it might try 14000 again.

I'm inclined 51/49 for a short side bet from 14020 (c) levels if that makes any sense.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Popped in bit later today.

Had a quick look at the charts and a short from the PDH would've turned out beautifully. I'm not sure why you aren't in? I am reading a high of 14035 on the futures price from last Friday. Today's high is 14042 so a short got triggered and as we speak the +40 target just reached.

Are you looking at a different chart? I am short for real from 14025, but I would've shorted higher but I've only just got back home.

Oops. My chart had the premarket futures price and I will confess I forgot about not including highs or lows before the cash market. Sorry. I'll put that through as trade 6 for +40.

Trades: 6
Wins:2
Losses: 4
Win %: 33
Average Win: 40
Average Loss: 20
Net P/L: 0

Regarding real trades, I am up +10 on the day and don't want to start giving it back trading without a clear signal. Looking to go long on a test of 14000, and I may have missed the boat.

I've only just come back, so I missed my hourly chart signal to go long on a rejection of the low of the 21 period DEMA. 20 points up from that now. Will wait on the sidelines for an entry.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Looks like a long on the 4 hour charts to me.

However, I'm flat and probably remain so. Looks like it might try 14000 again.

I'm inclined 51/49 for a short side bet from 14020 (c) levels if that makes any sense.

I don't know about that - it bounced clearly off the 21 period DEMA on the hourlies. I've taken 9 pips out with your system today, but I prematurely covered the long from 14008 which had a target of 14050 for +6. I'm itching for a long here. If I get another shot at 14000 and it holds I'll take it.