Dow 2007

[lurkerlurker]

I'm going to sign up for that game at the end of July for the August competition. I have a few strategies I would like to papertrade on various markets. I see no merit on starting with $10k when the top 3 have over $30k though. I'll start at the same point as everyone else, with the same funds, and all else equal. £1k would be very nice - it would recover a large portion of my SB losses. I could withdraw my balances as cash and just trade with the competition winnings. I would think $10k is enough to go $200pp on the ES!

 

[Atilla]

I'm going to sign up for that game at the end of July for the August competition. I have a few strategies I would like to papertrade on various markets. I see no merit on starting with $10k when the top 3 have over $30k though. I'll start at the same point as everyone else, with the same funds, and all else equal. £1k would be very nice - it would recover a large portion of my SB losses. I could withdraw my balances as cash and just trade with the competition winnings. I would think $10k is enough to go $200pp on the ES!

On the competition account you are restricted to only placing £15 per point on the various instruments. Some may be £20pp. £10K is not a lot so you can use up that allotment in various instruments quite easily.

It has shares, commodities, indeces, currencies and so forth. Sure your favourites are in there.

As I say it's better than paper trading and you get the chance to win £1000K placed into an account with IG. That is real money.

 

[lurkerlurker]

On the competition account you are restricted to only placing £15 per point on the various instruments. Some may be £20pp. £10K is not a lot so you can use up that allotment in various instruments quite easily.

It has shares, commodities, indeces, currencies and so forth. Sure your favourites are in there.

As I say it's better than paper trading and you get the chance to win £1000K placed into an account with IG. That is real money.

Working late again Atilla? Also, isn't the money placed into an account with Capital Spreads, not IG? As for instruments, I'd be trading Gold, the ES/YM, Cable, GBPJPY, and the bund.

An interesting use of the competition in addition to paper trading and strategy building would be to offset real trades. For example, if I get a short signal for the Dow, I could take the trade for real in my usual account, and then go long on the competition. If my real trade makes me money, great. If I take a loss in the real account, I'm closer to winning the £1k!

Of course, we're only going to get 2nd and 3rd place - Kevin will just come along and take 400 pips a day out of the spmib at £20pp!

Just consider how our trading would improve if we were risking competition winnings rather than our hard earned. It would be like running up a score on a pinball machine rather than sweating over the risk of loss. An opportunity like this would be welcome, but I think I am getting a little better at mastering my emotions. However, I did prematurely move my stop to BE on Friday and left 24 YM pips on the table.

Good trading all - I'll be back tonight with some charts for this week.

 

[Atilla]

Working late again Atilla? Also, isn't the money placed into an account with Capital Spreads, not IG? As for instruments, I'd be trading Gold, the ES/YM, Cable, GBPJPY, and the bund.

An interesting use of the competition in addition to paper trading and strategy building would be to offset real trades. For example, if I get a short signal for the Dow, I could take the trade for real in my usual account, and then go long on the competition. If my real trade makes me money, great. If I take a loss in the real account, I'm closer to winning the £1k!

Of course, we're only going to get 2nd and 3rd place - Kevin will just come along and take 400 pips a day out of the spmib at £20pp!

Just consider how our trading would improve if we were risking competition winnings rather than our hard earned. It would be like running up a score on a pinball machine rather than sweating over the risk of loss. An opportunity like this would be welcome, but I think I am getting a little better at mastering my emotions. However, I did prematurely move my stop to BE on Friday and left 24 YM pips on the table.

Good trading all - I'll be back tonight with some charts for this week.

Not working late - playing late. Got back from playing poker with friends & co...

With the competition I don't think it's worth devoting a lot of time to it when there is live trading. However, for demo trading or long-run testing of ideas and TA signals I think it's good. The £1K is just icing on the cake.

I've been finishing up on the £10K on a monthly basis for the last two months. First month I lost £6K. Another benefits is it builds on the confidence of ones system to leave such trades over inter-weekly runs.

Anyway, it's there use it if required. My main point is it is better than paper trading as it's all done on a demo account and you can see results. You should still analyse your win loss & consistency ratios and so forth.

 

[Hook Shot]

I'm always unhappy about the state of the Naz. The FA never adds up with the TA. I still hold the view tech stocks totally over valued. In the event of a big down turn they will take biggest hit as lux item expenditure will go. I have been wrong many a times before wrt FA so perhaps less said the better.

Candles with the short miniskirts and long legs do get me very bullish. Especially when they pick up from the bottom... :cheesy:

Yet linegraph shows double head with a potential down fall by another 200 points or more.

So I'm leaning towards the 50/50 mixed up pscyho attitude again. Will go by the MAs for direction.

If I had to choose because my life depended on it, I'd say we have some more downside.

Oil has come off the highs a little.

But look at gold - what a beauty. $683. Wow. Whistle a long tune eh?

Did say as $ drops further Asians will dump the dollar and move into Euro, Sterling or Gold. Or is this a reaction to Russian tic-tac toe? What ever I'm sure a lot of people celebrating.

I'm watching Naz as "weather vane" since it's been leading pack ........ clearly

Naz appears to be in blow off phase ... so pbks should be minor time and price wise and rise should get steeper... thats the theory anyway ....

Gold and gold stocks are getting busy - wary on gold for some reason despite the FA

Oil is a peach ........... expecting a pil£ of points ..... regardless of how this run plays out.... it's in mi back pocket famous last ... we'll see......

 

[lurkerlurker]

Dow to open higher, range bound

With regard to firewalkers system, the Dow is range bound today. I will be entering orders to sell 14068 and buy 13874 using 20 point stops and 40 point targets. In a small change to the system, stops will go BE at +20 (a trade last week went from +38 to -20).

With paper trading taken care of, I am now looking at 4h and 1h charts for Price / MA crossovers with MACD support. 4h charts are turning quite bullish, looks like I may have a long entry around 14000 (and if we see new highs this week great).

Some thoughts regarding key S/R levels. If we break yesterdays low, no doubt we will see downside to around next serious support below 13800. Should we break 14,100, I would expect the short cover squeeze to give at least 40 points upside, perhaps even more. Based on key S/R, I'd watch 14,100 up and 13,850 down with 30 point stops, but that isn't the way I am trading. I will trade on the side of the trend as suggested by the moving averages, which is currently up. Long or sidelines into the open. I'd obviously rather not trade until about 3pm, so I will come back and look at the charts then.

Good trading today.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Well, we've seen clear support at 13970 and a test of 14000. Price appears to be moving up, and the 4h chart looks ready to give a long entry. I'm quite bullish for the extreme short term, and the 1h charts have given a long entry from 13980 (which I could take with a 20 point stop. I'll try and get in if I can at 13980, with a stop at 13960 and a target of 14050 (although I'd exit quickly at +20 should 14000 be firmly rejected - usually rallies on clear breaks of 14000 have been rather sharp - maybe short covering, maybe bullish excitement. Failure to break above 14010 within 15 mins of the test would indicate to cover).

I'll see how I get on.

 

[lurkerlurker]

In the time it took me to type that post, price increased from 13984 to 14000. I'll see if I can get in on a confirmed break of 14010 but the R/R won't be so good. System still says long, the 1h went long at 13980, and the and the 4h looks like it will give a long at 14010.

Price has rebounded down again, looks like a rejection. Will watch closely. Firewalkers paper trades still not triggered.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Okay, I'm long 13,980 with a stoploss of 13,960 (pretty obvious I am long and wrong there), with an initial target of 14,050 (will be revised to market on a failed test of 14,000)

I think this trade is wrong, but I have to go with the system. Bullish sentiment is somewhat invalidated by the double top test of 14,000 on the 15m, but I defer to a longer timeframe.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Should have stayed on the sidelines until the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears had been decided. Plenty of large sell orders in the order book failed to push the price down near the session lows, and then strong buying came in. That would have been a good long entry in the direction of the charts. Market looks a little stronger now, and has come back to my entry.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Strong buying pressure under 13,980. Looks like we will see 14,000 again - I need to decide whether to cover that or back a break upwards, but I'll cross that bridge.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I have +10 - I better be good at reading the order book as we approach resistance.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Out of that for +3 net of spread - and just as 200 buy orders came in 3 ticks away at 13980. Premature exit? Only time will tell, but that trade wasn't looking too great. We've had too many rejections of highs in the first hour of trading that I am certainly happier on the sidelines.

Net +3 for the day. Firewalkers trades haven't been triggered either.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'm not happy with the indecision in the market, and would prefer that I can see whether bulls or bears are stronger and back the winning side. Too much indecision - there is even a long doji with a tiny body in the middle on the 1 hour chart. I see we are rejecting the higher levels yet again, and are back down to where I covered. Thread is quite quiet today - would like to hear some views!

 

[lurkerlurker]

The market has steadily traded above where I covered my long. I'm feeling a little sheepish for being shaken out, but there is always another opportunity. My 1h charts still tell me to be long (only just) and the 4h is looking bullish and appears to be ready to confirm a long entry a few dozen pips up from here.

A confirmed break of 14000 would make a good buying opportunity, and is in line with my systems. If I see weakness in the book and in the price at this level I will be tempted to short, but will not trade against the trend.

Monday is traditionally a bullish day with M&A activity and weekend retail orders being filled; I think if we continue to see such lack of momentum to the upside then the bears may step in and seize control by tomorrow. Shorter term, the charts say buy above 14000.

Bugger, price just touched 14,000 again - I should have held, but my reasoning in exiteing was right and according to plan.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Long 14008, stoploss 13990, target 14050. Massive buy orders at 14002,3,4. This was an entry on my 4h charts, and confirmation will be a further cross of the DEMAs. Stoploss is in a sensible enough position. Wish me luck guys.

 

[lurkerlurker]

+10, and the cash market is almost touching 14,000. Hello bulls. I'm going to move the stop to BE soon, because a retrace to 14008 would be quite bearish and show lack of momentum.

Kudos for this entry goes to Atilla for showing me Price / MA crossovers with MACD support, and to Dinos for showing me the power of DEMAs.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Out for +6. Slow day. Lack of strength above 14020. For a little while there I was feeling quite guilty about my charity trade suggestion. I know it didn't get filled, but yesterday evening I thought going short from 14010 with a stoploss of 20 and a target down at 13950 seemed sensible. Stop on that trade wasn't triggered, and downside looks likely.

I've taken 2 trades in the first 90 minutes. I am going to go away for awhile as I don't want to overtrade. I can't go short, and I've just covered a long and see weakness and inertia in this market. Back later to look at new setups.

Is anyone here trading? Kevin? Firewalker? Steve?

 

[lurkerlurker]

Market trading at 14030. Does this mean my exits were premature, or were my decisions based on a reasonable analysis of risk? The stubborn part of me wishes I had held my long from 13980 with the target of 14050, which looks increasingly likely. The self doubt is setting in again - am I just cutting winners too soon and leaving profits on the table? I saw weakness and indecision in the market, so I covered. Pointless ramblings really - the trading plan was to be on a lookout to take early profits in case of a rejection of higher levels, which is what I did. Of course we will see 14050 in no time now!

 

[2468steve]

Hi LL,
nice trade m8....never beat yourself up about taking a profit...I had a couple of days off Fri and 2day,away from market...need that break once in a while...currently flat ...