Dow 2007

[2468steve]

Good 'brave' call Steve... Well done mate.

Still hanging on but prof is turned into a loss at the mo.

I will close pos at 14000 but really 14020 will be the turning point if 14000 gets rejected.

Pos closed for -22.

thnx m8...there's no volume at all here so this could just drift....Google nos after close I think....

 

[lurkerlurker]

this dont look bearish to me.....not today at least.....its the cash.....maybe tomorrow there will be something, but.........my bets are on a new high, and after that, another high.

Well, I had to trust the system. I get myself in trouble with premature exits and not trading the plan. I made good losses today, and rather good losses than bad (read undisciplined) profits. My 4h charts are leaning to the bullish but haven't given an entry, so we shall see what happens tomorrow.

Atilla, sorry to hear that you lost some pips also.

 

[Atilla]

Well, I had to trust the system. I get myself in trouble with premature exits and not trading the plan. I made good losses today, and rather good losses than bad (read undisciplined) profits. My 4h charts are leaning to the bullish but haven't given an entry, so we shall see what happens tomorrow.

Atilla, sorry to hear that you lost some pips also.

I'm sorry for likewise. I think it's the SL. Just got back from watching Snakes on a plane to see 13957 now... Took a tumble after 14005 or something. I thought 14020 would be some level before it turned.

Pooh sticks as -22 still there for the day.

Snakes on a Plane is an interesting ride. Some good stuff. Written by enthusiasts about what I have no idea.

 

[Atilla]

this dont look bearish to me.....not today at least.....its the cash.....maybe tomorrow there will be something, but.........my bets are on a new high, and after that, another high.

They don't look bullish to me either.

Markets are moving sideways in my opinion. Depends on time frame.

50/50 on the 4 hour charts as it stands. Pull back from yesterdays fall. But have not made a higher high. In fact on teh 4 hours I'm looking at a lower low for the last few days. 14020 on cash prices would have to be breached before it turns bullish for me.

Also, on the 1 hour charts still bearish.

Tough call in my opinion as we are at fundamental pyschological 14000 mark. Going to be a real scrap here between bulls and bears.

I'm just going by 4hr and 1hr charts at the mo.

 

[jacinto]

They don't look bullish to me either.

Markets are moving sideways in my opinion. Depends on time frame.

50/50 on the 4 hour charts as it stands. Pull back from yesterdays fall. But have not made a higher high. In fact on teh 4 hours I'm looking at a lower low for the last few days. 14020 on cash prices would have to be breached before it turns bullish for me.

Also, on the 1 hour charts still bearish.

Tough call in my opinion as we are at fundamental pyschological 14000 mark. Going to be a real scrap here between bulls and bears.

I'm just going by 4hr and 1hr charts at the mo.

well, each to their own view my friend.......daily close suggests it is bullish, yet needs the break of the high to confrm.

 

[Hook Shot]

well, each to their own view my friend.......daily close suggests it is bullish, yet needs the break of the high to confrm.

Hola...que tal ???

Charts do look very bullish ... so this pre market dip looks like an opportunity to try and get long.... I think this slide after hours could be a head fake ...

If I'm wrong (again) the dax is dead meat especially if it rallies early on since 8k zone looks like cap ......perhaps :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

Hola...que tal ???

Charts do look very bullish ... so this pre market dip looks like an opportunity to try and get long.... I think this slide after hours could be a head fake ...

If I'm wrong (again) the dax is dead meat especially if it rallies early on since 8k zone looks like cap ......perhaps :cheesy:

Ok that's confirmed it then it's going down...:cheesy:

 

[jacinto]

Ok that's confirmed it then it's going down...:cheesy:

you cheeky old git....i support your argument just because you are being cheeky with that cheeky monkey HS

 

[Atilla]

Here is what I'm looking at...

1. We are either at the top of the short term channel narrow band

or

2. Long term channel and we are now on route to 15000

One step back two steps forward... :| :|

 

[Atilla]

you cheeky old git....i support your argument just because you are being cheeky with that cheeky monkey HS

You are displaying excess cheek your self mi ol china... I hope you are still not naked...

I am being genuine though when I say I'm 50/50.

I have looked at the line graph, bar charts and the good old candle sticks. It does look trifle bullish but there is some nagging doubt in me. Don't know if it's something I've eaten or passed but I feel undecided.

Hence, I'll go by the technical charts and mi MAs.

I think the market tricked me tonight with a fake turn up.

If it goes up and away tomorrow I will not feel bad about my lost -22 today.

If it tanks and goes down at least I'll have something to post to you... :cheesy:

 

[jacinto]

i love pitchrforks

 

[Atilla]

you cheeky old git....i support your argument just because you are being cheeky with that cheeky monkey HS

I just realised something...

Does that make us the "Cheeky boys"?

 

[jacinto]

I just realised something...

Does that make us the "Cheeky boys"?

mmmm, yes. although you are old and the other one isnt :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

mmmm, yes. although you are old and the other one isnt :cheesy:

Ouch...

Don't know about hurting my feelings but having read JTraders new walking technique blogg on fitness and health I'm warn out by all the reading I've done and my feet hurt...

NN everyone...

 

[firewalker99]

Oh, I lost on paper too. My paper trade hit the 20 point stop before the 40 point target, so I lost on that too.

Paper Trade stats

Trades: 4
Wins: 0
Losses: 4
Win %: N/A
Average Win: N/A
Average Loss: 20
Net P/L: -80

For sure all those trades were losses, but have you not noticed how it is all down to your stop & target placement? As far as I can tell from my chart, price came within 2 points of the target so that would've been a profit of 38 points.

I know you are only trading the system, but I was hoping you were going to get more pro-active and suggest some improvements for yourself instead of waiting for me to come and guide you because what I have given you is actually something you can actually backtest, papertrade and trade for real if you adjust the necessary parameters.

Obviously that requires you put in the necessary time and effort...

For instance: one thing you could start to look for is a way to lock in profits. I'm sure you would agree that no sensible trader would let a profit of almost 40 points turn into a loss of 20 points. I have given you the basic building blocks, but the finetuning is up to you.

With a couple of very small adjustments, you could've already had at least 2 profitable trades and more likely 3 if you locked in profits. Out of 4 trades that doesn't seem to bad to me.

 

[Hook Shot]

Naughty boy ...

mmmm, yes. although you are old and the other one isnt :cheesy:

Atilla - be careful of "speedy gonzales" he's not a full shilling ..... as they up here.....
Seems a nice guy though sometimes ... just don't get him near the vodka :cheesy:

Seriously......... update on last night's gibberish........
We had an after hours dip sub 13960 on cash after 14k close... and we recently regained the 14k - job done........ If I'm lucky the dax will struggle with 8k and take a little walk down south -watching but not holding my breath...

 

[Hook Shot]

Atilla - be careful of "speedy gonzales" he's not a full shilling ..... as they up here.....
Seems a nice guy though sometimes ... just don't get him near the vodka :cheesy:

Seriously......... update on last night's gibberish........
We had an after hours dip sub 13960 on cash after 14k close... and we recently regained the 14k - job done........ If I'm lucky the dax will struggle with 8k and take a little walk down south -watching but not holding my breath...

Goodness gracious ... what is happening ?
Markets are obeying me for once as Dax-cash taking a dip south ..... I can't take all this we get a poke over 8005 and then wham... better give up this forecasting lark it can only get harder from here

 

[lurkerlurker]

For sure all those trades were losses, but have you not noticed how it is all down to your stop & target placement? As far as I can tell from my chart, price came within 2 points of the target so that would've been a profit of 38 points.

I know you are only trading the system, but I was hoping you were going to get more pro-active and suggest some improvements for yourself instead of waiting for me to come and guide you because what I have given you is actually something you can actually backtest, papertrade and trade for real if you adjust the necessary parameters.

Obviously that requires you put in the necessary time and effort...

For instance: one thing you could start to look for is a way to lock in profits. I'm sure you would agree that no sensible trader would let a profit of almost 40 points turn into a loss of 20 points. I have given you the basic building blocks, but the finetuning is up to you.

With a couple of very small adjustments, you could've already had at least 2 profitable trades and more likely 3 if you locked in profits. Out of 4 trades that doesn't seem to bad to me.

Yesterday I did notice with some frustration that price almost hit the target and then reversed. I noticed that the system in many cases would have a scratch rather than a loss if the stop was moved to BE at +20, and was also considering some objective indicators to get out with some profit if the market properly reverses (without taking panic exits). I was a little apprehensive about suggesting any of this, as most here already think I jump about from system to system too much. I will need to do more backtesting, as while putting in a BE stop prevents some losses, profits still evaporate. I'm currently torn between using a trailing stop (not a fan) or trying to find some way to tell when the market is reversing (I have a choice of taking a system which has too much guesswork involved and leaves profits on the table, or one which knows that the trend is reversed because my stop was hit!).

Furthermore, I've been spending more time backtesting and trading the 4h Price/DEMA system, and considering adjustments to that. I was under the impression that you wanted me to trade this system totally mechanically (and I thought chopping and changing things in the middle of paper trading would lead to flames).

I'll make some modifications over the weekend based on some backtesting.

Regarding modifying systems, I need to spend more time tweaking the one I use to trade. I not with some annoyance that the market has once again hit my short target after I was stopped out within 10 tics of the highs.

Suggestions for the setting of stops on a position trading system using 4h charts and higher would be appreciated (though obviously I'll do my own research).

 

[firewalker99]

I was a little apprehensive about suggesting any of this, as most here already think I jump about from system to system too much. I will need to do more backtesting, as while putting in a BE stop prevents some losses, profits still evaporate. I'm currently torn between using a trailing stop (not a fan) or trying to find some way to tell when the market is reversing (I have a choice of taking a system which has too much guesswork involved and leaves profits on the table, or one which knows that the trend is reversed because my stop was hit!).

Furthermore, I've been spending more time backtesting and trading the 4h Price/DEMA system, and considering adjustments to that. I was under the impression that you wanted me to trade this system totally mechanically (and I thought chopping and changing things in the middle of paper trading would lead to flames).

You are right, the initial purpose was (and still is) to trade the system totally mechanically and you don't need to adjust anything but you do need to keep an eye open for possibilities and see if there's room for improvement. If you are going to change it straight away, it's no use in testing it. But if you note down each day your thoughts and views about what you could've done better or how you could've locked in profits, or used a better stop you will have something decent to analyze after 20 days.

Then if you have defined the tweaks and new rules you can apply them to that batch of 20 days and see how your adjusted system would have performed compared to the original one. That's basically how one improves. But by doing both at the same time (i.e. changing from system and immediately implementing it) you'll never have enough data to compare your performance.

It's up to you obviously, the system I offered was only an example of what you could do. However if you use the necessary tweaks and twists I am convinced you can turn it into a profitable system. As I said before, it's not the system that's the most difficult part; it's the psychology behind it. It's the trader that needs to know whether or not he can follow a system that runs into a loser once or then (or more) and whether he can stick to the plan and be disciplined in the face of adversity.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Thanks firewalker. I've had to take a few losing trades on the Dow with Atilla's system, but the average win amount is still greater than the average loss, and I am basically breakeven with that system at the moment. I think I am doing a good job of following the rules even when the system makes some losing trades. Your system is interesting also, but I would like to keep that as a paper trading exercise until I can tweak it enough to turn a profit.

I don't think I will take any real trades today, but paper trading as follows:

PDH - 14088
PDL - 14026

Looks like the market will open outside this range on the downside (unless we see a 30 point rally before the open). I am placing a sell limit order at the PDH, looking to short 14026 with a 20 point stop and 40 point target.