Dow 2007

[Atilla]

If I'd flipped a coin every 5th July for last ten years and it had come up heads for 8 of those years,statistically would this 5th July be heads because it has been for last 8/10 years,or tails because it has to be tails eventually........regardless of statistics,trends,hocus pocus,full moons etc it will always be 50/50 chance of either heads/tails......
"There are three types of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Variously attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, Alfred Marshall, Mark Twain and many other dead people......

cheers

I don't know about all these statistics and names and but what I can state as a matter of fact is that the market is down for me and I'm in positive territory. I was expecting just a trifle more. :cheesy:

Interesting report by the FSA on our sub-prime market. It's reported bad practice but no penalties.

Got the rate move wrong but TA was right so up on cable as well.

However, as mentioned before rising rates in Europe and UK bodes ill for the US.

I do feel we have more down side yet to come but it does concern me J.Murphy thinks we might make a new high in July.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Okay, who bought support at 600? Is there any strength above 650, or are we downhill from here. Correlation with the other indices? I trust volume has improved by now (I don't have my otFeed up, so no idea).

Big employment numbers at 01:30 tomorrow, so depending on the general state of the economy we should see a great price spike. I dislike simultaneous news releases- should I buy a breakout north on good nonfarms, the market could dive on high unemployment. Always a tricky one, but it is premarket so volume on a breakout shoulg give a pretty certain indication of whether it is a true breakout or a fakeout.

Until tomorrow, I am flat the Dow. Good luck all.

 

[Hook Shot]

Lurker

I think you've made an important discovery and one that should ease your path to consistent profitability

Day trading is not for everyone and in any case it's just one way of making money in the markets ..... I never hear Buffett talk about day trading ..... just kidding!:cheesy:

On the matter of 4pt spreads you might want to consider the Dax (once more ?). I think some spreadies offer 4pts on position trades - and you can't argue with the vol -

I've mainly been a position trader.... only getting intra when I see pricing anomalies or I'm close to putting on/closing a position trade.

Dax frightens many but I'm aware of lads who only trade it once or perhaps twice a week and bag very good money...... They say if it's going up and I'm not onboard just WAIT -it will run out of breath then give it a slap and take the loot. Then they look to get long after all we are in a raging bull market...

Conclusion: sometimes standing back helps you see the wood for the trees... although I applaud the very successful daytraders on these boards...

 

[lurkerlurker]

I don't know about all these statistics and names and but what I can state as a matter of fact is that the market is down for me and I'm in positive territory. I was expecting just a trifle more. :cheesy:

Interesting report by the FSA on our sub-prime market. It's reported bad practice but no penalties.

Got the rate move wrong but TA was right so up on cable as well.

However, as mentioned before rising rates in Europe and UK bodes ill for the US.

I do feel we have more down side yet to come but it does concern me J.Murphy thinks we might make a new high in July.

I'm moving to position trading soon, and share your short bias. I hope we profit and don't get squeezed. I think the global tide of liquidity will be sucked up before long, and that could signal the end of the bull market. Perhaps we should take a look at the leading components in the DJIA and FTSE 100 for signs of early weakness. Note that before the mini crash at the end of February, weakness was foretold by a large slump in General Motors. Just a suggestion - comments appreciated as always.

 

[lurkerlurker]

an important discovery and one that should ease your path to consistent profitability

Day trading is not for everyone and in any case it's just one way of making money in the markets ..... I never hear Buffett talk about day trading ..... just kidding!:cheesy:

While Buffet is a great man, I am not an investor nor do I have the capital to obtain a significant majority and affect change in an inefficient firm. Value investing doesn't appeal either.

On the matter of 4pt spreads you might want to consider the Dax (once more ?). I think some spreadies offer 4pts on position trades - and you can't argue with the vol -

My new favourite bucketshop broker E*Trade offer 3 points on the Dax September contract. I don't know about their financing charges though...

I've mainly been a position trader.... only getting intra when I see pricing anomalies or I'm close to putting on/closing a position trade.

Dax frightens many but I'm aware of lads who only trade it once or perhaps twice a week and bag very good money...... They say if it's going up and I'm not onboard just WAIT -it will run out of breath then give it a slap and take the loot. Then they look to get long after all we are in a raging bull market...

Conclusion: sometimes standing back helps you see the wood for the trees... although I applaud the very successful daytraders on these boards...

Just a quick straw poll - are there any successful index daytraders here who didn't successfully position trade prior to making consistent profits intra-day?

I think you've made an important discovery and one that should ease your path to consistent profitability

Thank You! I hope so!

 

[Hook Shot]

Perhaps we should take a look at the leading components in the DJIA and FTSE 100 for signs of early weakness. Note that before the mini crash at the end of February, weakness was foretold by a large slump in General Motors. Just a suggestion - comments appreciated as always.

Ibm is a dow heavyweight.... and one I'm watching closely - near term.
Tech sector generally is one to watch since it's soooo strong - but you know that already.
Just look at intel go ......... I remember when it was one of the dogs of the dow...

I think I read an "ajaskey"(trading the s&p thread) comment about viewing the naz as "the market" and from that point of view The Naz maybe the one to watch for changing market sentiment.... i.e when it starts underperforming dow/spx ??

 

[2468steve]

Ibm is a dow heavyweight.... and one I'm watching closely - near term.
Tech sector generally is one to watch since it's soooo strong - but you know that already.
Just look at intel go ......... I remember when it was one of the dogs of the dow...

I think I read an "ajaskey"(trading the s&p thread) comment about viewing the naz as "the market" and from that point of view The Naz maybe the one to watch for changing market sentiment.... i.e when it starts underperforming dow/spx ??

Hi HS,
Nasdaq and NDX making new highs again...if waiting for NDX to start underperforming keep an eye on Apple,Rimm,Google.....NDX is a weighted index and these are 3 of the biggest componants......All 3 are breaking all time highs today...

cheers
Steve

 

[Hook Shot]

Lurker

On Buffett I was partly kidding........i see where you're coming from though.
What I would say is that I would not be so quick to throw "value" strategies out of the window......... if I had a penny for every well known dog which did an about turn I'd be "preaching" from a beach somewhere... yahoo,france telecom, vodafone, intel, dell, microsoft, coca cola, merck, pfizer . . budweiser (buffett pick) .... all these were dogs in the relatively recent past but found new life and rewarded patient position traders.

As it happens Buffett ran a hedge fund in his early days... maybe not a lot of people know that ......

Anyway...

(US) Starbucks, Motorola, Amd....... (UK) dixons, Tate & Lyle, Yell, Northern Rock will be the same.........none will go bust ..... time is a great healer ...........

Rantings aside........ Spreadex do 4pts for Sep Dax and there isn't any financing from what I understand...

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi HS,
Nasdaq and NDX making new highs again...if waiting for NDX to start underperforming keep an eye on Apple,Rimm,Google.....NDX is a weighted index and these are 3 of the biggest componants......All 3 are breaking all time highs today...

cheers
Steve

Interesting. I am very wary of the tech sector, however I am sure it will be a leading indicator of underperformance in industrials and the S&P. Isn't MSFT on the Nasdaq 100, and if so doesn't it have a greater market cap (and weighting) than AAPL?

As for the breaking highs, isn't that just a little bit bearish? I think the last bear will be a buyer before long! The Nasdaq is making highs not confirmed by the S&P, DJIA, or the Russell 2000. The broader indices are failing to reach or surpass highs, whereas the Nasdaq looks like it is in a parabolic blow off.

Intermarket technical analysis is beyond my skill levels, but I am eager to learn more.

Does anyone still have a YM position?

 

[Hook Shot]

Hi HS,
Nasdaq and NDX making new highs again...if waiting for NDX to start underperforming keep an eye on Apple,Rimm,Google.....NDX is a weighted index and these are 3 of the biggest componants......All 3 are breaking all time highs today...

cheers
Steve

Spot on as ever Steve........ makes me wonder why there are still so many bears about when you see things like that.. ? Perhaps they are tactical bears :cheesy:



Aside
Roger Nightingale - regular tv economist.... reckoned a while back that rates will probably be taken down shortly and markets will go through the roof. He has been advocating high beta stox for several weeks now ....... maybe this is what the comp and the Naz100 are seeing.... ?

 

[lurkerlurker]

On Buffett I was partly kidding........i see where you're coming from though.
What I would say is that I would not be so quick to throw "value" strategies out of the window......... if I had a penny for every well known dog which did an about turn I'd be "preaching" from a beach somewhere... yahoo,france telecom, vodafone, intel, dell, microsoft, coca cola, merck, pfizer . . budweiser (buffett pick) .... all these were dogs in the relatively recent past but found new life and rewarded patient position traders.

As it happens Buffett ran a hedge fund in his early days... maybe not a lot of people know that ......

Anyway...

(US) Starbucks, Motorola, Amd....... (UK) dixons, Tate & Lyle, Yell, Northern Rock will be the same.........none will go bust ..... time is a great healer ...........

Rantings aside........ Spreadex do 4pts for Sep Dax and there isn't any financing from what I understand...

I know you were kidding about WEB. I'm not against value investing in general, it just isn't suited for me. Of course, I'll always be interested in what one might call mispriced asset classes, but only for the short term at this point in my life.

I only intend to look at the index leading equities to an extent. I have no interest in trading equities at this point, although I may add them in to a more robust trading strategy later on, when I am more experienced and better capitalised. Saying that, every equity trade I have made (all short term within the day or 2 days max) with spreadbetting have showed a profit (shorts on the miners - VED, RIO, LON, and the financial sector - PRU, STAN)...

Pattern day trading of equities through a DMA SB firm is an idea for the future.

For what it is worth, I think "financing" for overnight spread bets is the biggest con out. Financing? You're only hedging your net exposure (and only over a certain risk tolerance) anyway. TradIndex never did it - they priced costs into the spread - look at the spread of 5 for daily dow future, 7 for weekly, and 12 for the front month as an example. I'd be happy to pay a few more spread points...

I've just read the E*Trade Product Information, and it seems they only charge financing on "rolling bets" in which case you either roll the position over and pay financing, or take the wider spread for the front month contract (as opposed to the rolling cash daily). 3 points for the September Dax is pretty nice!

Rolling Daily Bets may incur a charge or income for each day that they are held overnight. If you are long of an equity or index, this equates to real
market cash exposure and so interest may be charged on this cash value for each day that the position is held open overnight. If you are short of an
equity or index, an interest return may be paid on these equivalent cash funds.
​

Interesting discussion, thanks. Has anyone here read an investing book with a title of "If it rains in Brazil, buy Starbucks" or something similar?

 

[lurkerlurker]

Spot on as ever Steve........ makes me wonder why there are still so many bears about when you see things like that.. ? Perhaps they are tactical bears :cheesy:



Aside
Roger Nightingale - regular tv economist.... reckoned a while back that rates will probably be taken down shortly and markets will go through the roof. He has been advocating high beta stox for several weeks now ....... maybe this is what the comp and the Naz100 are seeing.... ?

Rates will be taken down shortly, eh? Not in the UK (but we are discussing US markets here). I am not too sure if that will happen at this point - perhaps before the next presidential election perhaps...

I won't be bullish again until the broader indices make new highs. I'm not truly bearish yet either. It is a complex business considering both the fundamentals and what the markets (and such differing indices, the ES, YM, NQ, ER2 ,etc) are telling you on weekly, daily, and intra-day timeframes. Fully understanding the futures, equity, and currency markets is perhaps one of the greatest challenges ever devised by mankind.

I can feel my understanding improve over the last few months, even if I am still a rank amateur retail boy.

Everyone flat now? Any thoughts on tomorrows numbers?

 

[2468steve]

Interesting. I am very wary of the tech sector, however I am sure it will be a leading indicator of underperformance in industrials and the S&P. Isn't MSFT on the Nasdaq 100, and if so doesn't it have a greater market cap (and weighting) than AAPL?

As for the breaking highs, isn't that just a little bit bearish? I think the last bear will be a buyer before long! The Nasdaq is making highs not confirmed by the S&P, DJIA, or the Russell 2000. The broader indices are failing to reach or surpass highs, whereas the Nasdaq looks like it is in a parabolic blow off.

Intermarket technical analysis is beyond my skill levels, but I am eager to learn more.

Does anyone still have a YM position?

Hi LL,
yes MSFT is on Naz 100...MSFT was the biggest weighting but because all weightings are linked to market cap I'm not sure whether that's still the case considering the big rises we've seen in other tech stocks....will find out tho'........

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^NDX&c=1

cheers
steve

 

[Atilla]

Ibm is a dow heavyweight.... and one I'm watching closely - near term.
Tech sector generally is one to watch since it's soooo strong - but you know that already.
Just look at intel go ......... I remember when it was one of the dogs of the dow...

I think I read an "ajaskey"(trading the s&p thread) comment about viewing the naz as "the market" and from that point of view The Naz maybe the one to watch for changing market sentiment.... i.e when it starts underperforming dow/spx ??

As a techy fwiw I'd say IBM is a better buy than Intel. Services sector is long term contracts attached to it. Hardware is very suspect to down turns in market sentiment.

I'm still short on Dow and Cable.

 

[Hook Shot]

Depends on the timeframe....

Sure longer term Ibm with recurring rev streams will do okay with less volatility but even big blue has it's hiccups........ I think I saw it at $56 once - with no end of scandal and bad press....

As it happens Ibm does look full of beans long term ..now it's broken long term downtrend - Atilla, thanks for that $100 ibm seems now history ... famous last ??

You know more than I .... Chips are trading stocks ....... bit like airlines really ... If one was to passively trade the big waves on major chip stocks you'd make a lot of dough. In fact the one to watch for me right now is GNSS* stateside. It generally cycles between $10-$20 plus or minus. It's teasing $10 now....... having overshot on the downside to sub $8.

Good Luck with cable ..... but it's kind of take your pick at the mo :- Euro$, Kiwi$, Aussie$ and EuroYen are all in the cross hairs - not to mention India and Hong Kong which made all time highs today.... July will be interesting...

Aside 2
I wonder if the lads have anything planned for 7th July this year...... 07.07.07 .....dedicated to agent 2468

 

[Atilla]

Sure longer term Ibm with recurring rev streams will do okay with less volatility but even big blue has it's hiccups........ I think I saw it at $56 once - with no end of scandal and bad press....

As it happens Ibm does look full of beans long term ..now it's broken long term downtrend - Atilla, thanks for that $100 ibm seems now history ... famous last ??

You know more than I .... Chips are trading stocks ....... bit like airlines really ... If one was to passively trade the big waves on major chip stocks you'd make a lot of dough. In fact the one to watch for me right now is GNSS* stateside. It generally cycles between $10-$20 plus or minus. It's teasing $10 now....... having overshot on the downside to sub $8.

Good Luck with cable ..... but it's kind of take your pick at the mo :- Euro$, Kiwi$, Aussie$ and EuroYen are all in the cross hairs - not to mention India and Hong Kong which made all time highs today.... July will be interesting...

Aside 2
I wonder if the lads have anything planned for 7th July this year...... 07.07.07 .....dedicated to agent 2468

Here is the chart from couple of days ago with the same line with todays trade. I'm seeing a hanging man or an umbrella according to my txtbooks. Both bearish at the tops I've read very gladedly. :cheesy:

HS, I remember our little chats about IBM at $100 but I really can't remember what stance I took. I do remember being bearish on tech stocks like Microsoft, Intel and AMD but totally forgot IBM. I gave up looking at their price after a while.

My view on currencies as quoted before is if US markets sink dollar will strengthen.

I also feel stuff like Google Yahoo and Apple are over inflated. Redress is due. Google could dissapear in a week. How can anybody value it in billions is beyond me.

For everyone out there who is looking for value in shares I would say look for tangible assets and cash. For example it will only take one iconic movie - catchy theme - jazzy name to steal web interest. What can Google do? I used to use and like Altavista. Very popullar at one point with lots of info on their default page. Google came along with nothing other than a basic white page with a box and look at the search market now.

MSN, Yahoo & Google all over inflated imo.

Right now I wouldn't be buying shares or looking for value at market tops. Sell sell sell. Or take your money out and see the summer out and have another gander round Sept Oct for a more meaningful look at share values.

Anyway --- TA charts looks bearish to me.

 

[Hook Shot]

Complex business indeed.....

Rates will be taken down shortly, eh? Not in the UK (but we are discussing US markets here). I am not too sure if that will happen at this point - perhaps before the next presidential election perhaps...

Fully understanding the futures, equity, and currency markets is perhaps one of the greatest challenges ever devised by mankind.I can feel my understanding improve over the last few months, even if I am still a rank amateur retail boy.

Everyone flat now? Any thoughts on tomorrows numbers?

I checked the bloomberg video and he did say shortly interest rates are going to go down but he accepted the Cb's might raise a tad more to squeeze out the last bit of toothpaste(excess money supply) out of the tube (economy) - but the data in US, Japan and EU (particularly Germany) aint great and this will lead to cuts.

Roger would accept your point that UK may have less of a case for "shortly" cutting rates given the strength of our economy relative to those mentioned above. But he seems to imply the cuts are "inevitable" and as rates fall profits rise and markets go into outer space - given what we know now.... all things being equal.... blah blah blah!

Presidential election run up would be a good period to start cutting rates and is classic electioneering as you know.... maybe the first cut won't wait for 2008 ?

I'm flat-ish .......... still have positions long and short but my main thing for end of week is I want to see a 13700 test - there is not enough stretch in the indices at the mom to make me start to feel comfy about tatical shorts we're up almost 350 off last weeks lows but today did not drive on which leads me to hope we get a spurt tomorrow - to reduce the trade risk.

If my hopes are dashed then 600-615 would be my cap/stop to place a short trade.

Bottom line, I feel the next low risk triple digit move is down but I have to wait for market to burn itself out first. The long trade should have been last Wed nearish 13250 as dow teased 50ma .....Friday's action whilst awkward was a second bite of the cherry in hindsight :cheesy: .

For me longs have too much risk since the upmove is well on the way. The odds are more in favour of a change of direction as we approach 13700 zone. If I'm wrong we get a pullback before that level ....my cap is 600-615 so far .........

 

[lurkerlurker]

Here is the chart from couple of days ago with the same line with todays trade. I'm seeing a hanging man or an umbrella according to my txtbooks. Both bearish at the tops I've read very gladedly. :cheesy:

Double dutch to me on the umbrella, but is the uptrendline becoming resistance?

I also feel stuff like Google Yahoo and Apple are over inflated. Redress is due. Google could dissapear in a week. How can anybody value it in billions is beyond me.

The only way that google will disappear in a week is if advertisers don't want web eyeballs in a week and nobody wants to buy a few TB of demographics. I agree however that the valuation is preposterous (I'm just annoyed not to have bought it at IPO, but nevermind - I'm glad I have no direct tech stock exposure).

For everyone out there who is looking for value in shares I would say look for tangible assets and cash. For example it will only take one iconic movie - catchy theme - jazzy name to steal web interest. What can Google do? I used to use and like Altavista. Very popullar at one point with lots of info on their default page. Google came along with nothing other than a basic white page with a box and look at the search market now.

A basic white page with a box, some of the best math guys in the business, and data mining plans which J. Edgar Hoover could only dream of.

MSN, Yahoo & Google all over inflated imo.

Right now I wouldn't be buying shares or looking for value at market tops. Sell sell sell. Or take your money out and see the summer out and have another gander round Sept Oct for a more meaningful look at share values.

Anyway --- TA charts looks bearish to me.

I'm bullish on commodities (except gold). Oil, industrial metals, and some agricultures are going up. Looking to get some exposure to this without being too active in the futures markets or holding longs on margin (as opposed to spreadbetting), I decided to subscribe to a few grand of a debt hedged commodity fund. It is doing okay for its first month.

Equities - the global tide of liquidity is drying up, we face a credit crunch, the collapse of the UK residential property market, record consumer defaults, poor balance of payments in the UK and US, higher taxes in the UK. Buy a top? No thanks.

Equally, I'm reluctant to short just yet. I'm playing news at the moment. When I move to swing trading soon, no doubt I will see some short opportunities there (I wouldn't rule out longs in advice, but I don't think it is likely).

 

[Hook Shot]

The Problem is it's easy to be bearish.....

Here is the chart from couple of days ago with the same line with todays trade. I'm seeing a hanging man or an umbrella according to my txtbooks. Both bearish at the tops I've read very gladedly. :cheesy:

I can't disagree that lofty prices usually imply lower prices are not too far way - tactically at least as profit taking kicks in. I suppose I/we need to be clearer about the type of decline we expect to unfold. Are we talking two-four days profit taking sell off or a multi-week move ? What type of points decline are we looking for ?

Apple, Rimm, Intel & co are clearly nearing a profit-taking sell off. It's inevitable (and obvious) but beyond that I can't say whether it will morph into something worse........
Trailing stops might be the part of the solution ...

Happy Trading

 

[lurkerlurker]

All time highs are always a tricky thing to short. Also, the drop off from all time highs doesn't have a pullback in a large sample of cases. I can't short where I don't know when I am wrong. Obviously there are other ways to see where your stop should be in this situation. I don't do equities right now, but if I did there would be many attractive shorts, especially in leading Nasdaq 100 stocks. Is anyone here going short US Tech, and if so what instruments from what prices, where is the stop, and what are the signals?