Dow 2007

lurkerlurker said:
Long 37 cash. Stop 16. Entered on S/R zone, RSI out of oversold, bullish DEMA cross.
Click to expand...

Lurker, if I look at cash prices I see support around 13510-13515.
So I would be buying around that level.
If I can't buy so close, then I would just skip the trade.

Your long from 37 might have turned out to be a good long, but you either need a wider stop or a better entry because you are buying "in the air" if you know what I mean.
 
firewalker99 said:
The market discounts the news. Always.
It just happened sooner rather than later this time.
Click to expand...

You are right firewalker and I do concur but these kinds of volatility by professional traders always takes me as being caught off guard on the news or fundamental impact of the economy.

Just to discuss further - these fundamental statistics then reflect them selves in the price movements as we are seeing.

I'm not sure how TA supporters would argue these price actions are leading the markets.

Now decision point on DOW 13500. Will it hold?

Any opinions. Has 13600 been rejected on this excellent news.

Bad unemployment stat more significant than > Good housing stats... :rolleyes:
 
Yes. It has been my plan to short a break of 500 for a little while. Especially on a day which is trending down so much.
 
Let the trade manage itself. Can't really do that - just had a break of a downtrendline on the 5 min, a bullish DEMA cross on the 1 min, and my risk management telling me to get out before it gets worse. Logical stop at 520, but I don't want to give away another 10.
 
Atilla said:
You are right firewalker and I do concur but these kinds of volatility by professional traders always takes me as being caught off guard on the news or fundamental impact of the economy.

Just to discuss further - these fundamental statistics then reflect them selves in the price movements as we are seeing.

I'm not sure how TA supporters would argue these price actions are leading the markets.

Now decision point on DOW 13500. Will it hold?

Any opinions. Has 13600 been rejected on this excellent news.

Bad unemployment stat more significant than > Good housing stats... :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

How would you define "bad" unemployment...

Because there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment these figures are difficult to interpret:

1) If there is less unemployment than expected, the initial reaction of the market most likely is that it's going to rise. However less unemployment means more inflation on the short-term basis (Phillips curve).

2) If there is more unemployment, you would assume that's bad for economy? But more unemployment means less inflation which the stock market prefers right?

There are so many ways to interpret figures...
 
Just seen what could only be described as a bearish engulfind on the 5. Trading is becoming more difficult for me. The main thing is that I haven't run away from this position just yet.
 
This is probably a load of blx but I have problems shorting a break of say 13500 - if I am not already short it can be a bit hit and miss... I think shorts should have been in place well before 13500... but that's the way I play......
 
lurkerlurker said:
Let the trade manage itself. Can't really do that - just had a break of a downtrendline on the 5 min, a bullish DEMA cross on the 1 min, and my risk management telling me to get out before it gets worse. Logical stop at 520, but I don't want to give away another 10.
Click to expand...

It all depends on what your plan dictates. Your rules are the boss. You are no longer in control after you have entered a trade. The stop & target should manage the trade for you.

However, if you have new signals which say you should enter a trade and you are already in the market, than it's up to you to decide what to do. Either reverse, or don't take the second signal. But if you have to think that over while the market is open, you're going to find it hard to decide on what to do. So again, the plan should say what to do and there should be no doubt about your next action.
 
lurkerlurker said:
I suppose I have just sold the low...
Click to expand...

LL,with all due respect 13500 was never going to be given up by bulls that easy....you always tend to get a break below,where the market shows it's hand,stops and limits are hit pushing back above 13500,then market resumes it's trend...if going short it's normally best to wait and get in on this bounce...

cheers
 
firewalker99 said:
How would you define "bad" unemployment...

Because there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment these figures are difficult to interpret:

1) If there is less unemployment than expected, the initial reaction of the market most likely is that it's going to rise. However less unemployment means more inflation on the short-term basis (Phillips curve).

2) If there is more unemployment, you would assume that's bad for economy? But more unemployment means less inflation which the stock market prefers right?

There are so many ways to interpret figures...
Click to expand...


If Uncle Bernanke says he has to balance US growth with inflation ( which he has said ) that means to me if unemployment is rising and growth is taking a hit he may relax monetary policy.

However, that only spurs on housing and inflation.

But all along we were worried about inflationary pressures and now the boot is on the other foot.

Sending mixed messages to markets bad idea.

I would have summarised as housing stats more important than a little bit of unemployment but what do I know.

The DOW should rise imo compared to this news and all the other bad news. Also if they are talking about rate drops.

So I'm well confused of 15600 rejection.

At times like this I think TA is beautiful. Stuff the news and trade the charts. :)
 
Hi Lurkerlurker,

I have been watching this thread for a while now and every time I read your posts you remind me so much of myself 5/6 months ago. I used to do 10/12 trades a day and lost a lot of money (about £8000 to be honest). It was a big slap in the face and I have learnt some very valuable lessons from it. First of all I am not suited for day trading so instead of using 1, 2 3 or 5 minutes charts I now only trade with 1 hour charts and very precise rules.

I have now got all of my black hair back but also my £8000. I am not stressed anymore and sleep at nights. Maybe you should consider trading with longer time frames before you have a heart attack .

I know how you feel, I have been there !!!

All the very best

Didier
 
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