Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Mon 14th Dec 09

The 1hr screenshot below shows the descending resistance trend line and underside of previous ascending support trend line at which cable has found supply this early London session after further demand/support @ the previous swing lo=prev supp=potential support zone earlier in the Asian/overnight session,..this zone being co-existant with a prev swing near-term obvious lo on 4hr.

100sma remains below 200sma on both 1hr and 4hr, with both t/f's pretty much ranging at the moment with a current bearish feel overall.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Reversal [contra-trend] set-ups

The 5min set-up below is what developed at the 1hr resistance trend line discussed above, it supported a 1min trigger t/f regular sequential bearish divergence set-up also..

The 1min trigger t/f set-up developed @ the current intraday lows discussed above

All patterns repeat so the trueism goes, and it is an oft repeating phenomenon to see the same set-up develop at both ends of a move.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

current 4hr ranging conditions

The screenshot below shows the extent of the ranging conditions on 4hr, and the range hi and lo zones..The daily however remains in a downtrend after 2 x LH and a L, and 2 x LL off the recent 6876 HH in it's previous uptrend to that price.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Hi-probability play?

Bearish sentiment continues so far off the descending trend line bounce detailed above...and price re-tests the area of current intraday lows,..although not a fractal swing low on this 1hr t/f [ie a previous obvious near-term swing lo = prev support=potential support zone,] it was the second test and effectively the 3rd test of that area on 5min, see screenshots below;

So there had been demand there in the very recent past and when a regular sequential bullish divergence based 1min triggerr t/f set-up developed there with a good price action candle trigger (bullish engulfing) it beacme a hi-probability play despite there not being a 1hr prev swing lo = potential support or swing hi=potential rbs there.

...the 1min set-up is here

This is the only exception I employ in trading Reversal set-ups that do not not occur at an obvious near-term previous swing hi/lo zone on the 1hr t/f or otherwise potential supp/res factors confluence on that t/f, (like fibs/trend-lines. )As the prevailing sentiment is currently bearish and this was contra that sentiment it was a small pip gain booked only.
G/L

 

[bbmac]

1hr

Like the 4hr t/f, 1hr too has been ranging somewhat of late and any trend like the last downtrend off the last Hh being shortlived...although there could be a new uptrend developing off the most recent LL with a H above last LH and now a HL ?? time will tell...lol

G/L

 

[bbmac]

More supply at the trend line..Tues 15th Dec 09

More overnight/asian session and early london session supply/resistance at the 1hr descending resistance trend line in the prev 1hr swing hi=prev res=potential res zone shown on pic below...no sustained break above that t/line yet...price is now illiciting some support in the previous 1hr swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone.

As for what the overall price action conditions are on 1hr/4hr...Don't ask, lol...it's ranging currently within the recent range channel discussed yesterday.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Uk Cpi/Rpi data due @ 0930am

Could have an influence on price.

 

[bbmac]

Will this pleasure never end??

The current 4hr congestion channel continues, and I wonder how many are gettinbg chopped around on a 1hr trigger or higher and indeed how many are holding longer term positions either long or short?

Meanwhile Mni taklked of bids toward 6240, and the 1min trigger t/f regular sequential bullish divergence based Reversal (contra trend) set-up developed at those bids giving a nice pip gain against the prevailing sentiment in those 1hr/4hr ranging conditions...

There was no supporting 5min Reversal set-up but going up to 15min one existed there, as shown below, a regular immediate bullish divergence Reversal set-up...

 

[bbmac]

Even 5min is horrible atm

Even 5min is unclear atm re direction, data due @ 0930am may shake it up?

 

[bbmac]

Set-ups but no pre-identified potential support identified

In the immediate post data reaction a regular sequential bullish divergence based Reversal set-up on 1min trigger with a 5min supporting regular immediate bullish div Reversal set-up...1min shown below (the seq div is there on macd just not shown on that screenshot)

But what was the potential support? The bids touted by mni '..to 6240/stops below...' seemed to be breeched by the data knee-jerk react selling so stayed flat here and let the set-up go...it has now produced a +20+ pip gain from the 6250 ask entry that I rejected on close of the 1min bullish trigger candle..

...the supporting 5min Reversal set-up as described above is here

There clearly was some demand/support there I just couldn't identify it and in these circumstances there is incomplete confluence so I stay flat.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Confluence

I am at the start position, and there is some money on the Money island, but to get there the 4 floating islands (the 4 tech factors that comprise my technical trading edge) have to line up together beacuse if they don't and I try to get there by say jumping from1 to 3, I may fall into the sea...But when they do (confluence) I can simply step across safely and pick the money up on most occassions, although it is not guaranteed but it gives me the best chance...and all the while I have to be aware of the sharks circling that keep launching attacks on me (fear, greed, impatience, boredom etc...

It's a simplistic representation, but accurate.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

6220 Bids kick in

Mni were talking about bids @ 6220 which is area of Daily S1 pivot (6215-24 area,) also 76.4% of recent 6188-6324 swing up...Nice 1min trigger t/f regular immediate divergence based Reversal (contra trend) set-up there pictured below which has eventually seen some pip gain.It was supported by a similar repeating Reversal set-up on 5min but this was imperfect as only 2 of the 3 x oscillators had the required regular divergence pattern.

Mni talking of stronger bids @ 6200/6190?..the 4hr channel persists for now with price at only 26% of it's average 52 week pip range, 53% of it's average 20day pip range, correct at writing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

5min Re-entry to 30min downtrend

No 1min trigger t/f set-up but a 5min Re-entry (to 30min downtrend after a pullback) set-up @ the potential sbr/res of then then 23.6% fib of the intraday move down...The set-up came @ a H on 5min corresponding with an immediate LH position on that 30min into whose downtrend the with trend trading opportunity arose after the pullback

Price testing those '...stonger bids 6200/6190..' - mni, as I write this

 

[bbmac]

6200/6190 stronger bids (mni) tested...

I missed the set-up described in above post as was away from desk, so consoled myself with an against trend/sentiment opportunity, a 1min oscillator extremes/cci hook based Reversal set-up supported by a 5min regular immediate bullish (and double regular sequential bullish in osma) divergence based Reversal set-up developed @ those 6200 'stronger bids' resulting in a nice quick pip gain...

1min trigger t/f set-up is here;

How strong are these bids?

This is what I am see-ing currently on 1hr re obvious near-term potential supp/res factors...below the lowest blue zone and attention turns to the Daily chart for potential support factors

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Decent enough 1min Re-entry set-up...but opposed??

Good repeating hidden divergence based indy set-up but it came @ a H following a HL on the 1min that corresponding with an immediate LH on the 5min @ a potential sbr zone on that t/f=previous swing lo x 2=prev supp=potential rbs...and although I traded it on the close of the 1min bearish trigger candle, this and the final screenshot relating to a supporting (and opposing) regular bullish divergence set-up on 15min at those 6200bids persuaded me to smash and grab a small pip gain as oppose to see if a with trend follow thru results from this particular set-up...

and the opposing 15min supporting and opposing regular bullish div set-up to those in post above @ the 6200 '...stronger bids...' is here.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

W 16th Dec 09

Today: Uk employment numbers followed by U.s Cpi & Housing data, then Fomc rate decision after that...will the combined reaction effect of these releases shake cable out of it's recent 4hr channel?...time will tell I guess..

Near term obvious potential supp/res factors on 1hr is below....and strating rfrom Yesterday's Low 1hr has printed a LL, LH,HL,H, and HL...beginning of new 1hr uptrend?? in the 4hr channel congestion?? Don't hold your breath, Lol !

G/L

 

[bbmac]

upside break of descending 1hr trend line (s)

Nice upside break of the recent 1hr congestion although still in the 4hr congestion channel...price originally pulled back from the 6300 offers 9mni) and descending 1hr trend line areas shown below:

With an oscillator extremes/cci hook based 1min trigger t/f Reversal set-up to net some pips on the pullback:

You can see in the above screenshot that a hidden divergence based Re-entry to the 5min uptrend after the pullback developed after that at the previous swing hi=previous res=potential rbs zone on 5min shown below, resulting in a with trend follow thru to a new HH.

Price has now tested and found supply at the previous 1hr/4hr swing hi=prev res=potential res zone shown in first post today with confluence of 38.2% fib of 6667-6166 shown on that screenshot...at this point a nice 1min trigger t/f regular immediate bearish divergence based Reversal set-up devloped (shown below) supported by a the same 5min Reversal set-up as the 1min Reversal set-up shown in screenshot above

G/L

 

[gamma]

It seems to have stalled at exactly 16360 which is the 50% pullback fib of the recent low 16232 to the 16488 high.
Would like your views on this scenario bbmac

 

[bbmac]

reply to post above

It seems to have stalled at exactly 16360 which is the 50% pullback fib of the recent low 16232 to the 16488 high.
Would like your views on this scenario bbmac

Hi Gamma , my view is that 6488-6232 is not a relevant fib, the swings highs above the recent 6166 low, can only be plotted to that 6166. Un less I misunderstand, your fib is plotted as shown in the pic? Coincidentally that current intraday Hi is the 38.2% of the 6667-6166 swing down. 6434-52 sees 2 x fib cluster being 50% 6720-6166 and 38.2% of the longer 6876-6166 major swing.

From yesterday's lo 1hr has now printed a LL (at yesterday's lo), LH,HL,H, and now a HH so is in an uptrend.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Cable plunges on dissapointing retail sales data

The rot set in at yesterday's Hi being the potential resistance confluence of the 76.4% fib of the then 6485-6166 swing down, the 100sma on Daiy t/f and a previous swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone on that Daily t/f, and the late Mid-late U.s to asian/overnight session continued the selling off that 6409 area Hi, and as the dissapointing Uk retail sales numbers hit the wires the pairing sold off strongly.

From and including yesterday's Hi 1hr has now printed a HH, HL,LH,LL,LH, LL and a LH, the last LL being the previous Daily t/f swing hi = prev res = potential sbr zone, highlighted in previous posts, and today's current intraday low, and shown on the Daily t/f screenshot below. Speaking of this Daily t/f, the move has seen a downside break of the ascending support trend line and of course a similar breech of the 61.8% fib 5707-6876.

G/L