Currency 2007: Jan-01 > Jan-05

[jacinto]

long 9405, looking for double bottom formation, and now to bed

edit, will move to BE ASAP, otherwise, will get another black eye .

and break even now. hope you all have a good evening, and hope this is the end of the move down, 3 waves down completed with apparent double bottom. happy to go to sleep and dream of staying flat at BE, but happier to dream of a beautiful NFP that triggers a move to 9850 and beyond

well, at least i did get short at 9740 2 days ago and screwed my trade. lets see if i managed to go long at the bottom and not screw it for a change
j

 

[jacinto]

edit: deleted the post

 

[Marwan2010]

GBP Long @ 9409
CAD short @ 1.1775

 

[coolTrader]

o dear! looks like there is still more selling.

 

[jacinto]

and break even now. j

err, just woke up flat

 

[Marwan2010]

GBP Long @ 9409
CAD short @ 1.1775

GBP - me too just woke up, wow! what a night! my the price got to my stops within few pips!
just closed it for 17 pips dont want to risk it with nfp

CAD will carry on the trade

 

[ChowClown]

+200 locked in now on yesterday's (3rd Jan) vebo short.

Morning all, +250 locked in now on the 3rd Jan short. Today's vebo orders in at 478 long, 375 short.

 

[ChowClown]

...does anyone using Oanda have any idea why they've widened to 7?...don't see any data until 13:30.

 

[Bluewave]

If the NFP numbers are worse than expected, will that mean the dollar will further weaken?

 

[ChowClown]

...probably, but you never know!

 

[ChowClown]

...does anyone using Oanda have any idea why they've widened to 7?...don't see any data until 13:30.

hmm, back to 2.8 now.

 

[ChowClown]

Courtesy of tkimble on FF, a weekly BO strat for the armoury, similar to trendlinebreak's SIBKISS and variants but with a more palatable R:R. You may need to reg with FF to see the thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=11937&page=1&pp=15

Enjoy.

 

[JTrader]

I'm looking forward to 13:30 and beyond this afternoon, hopefully I'll be able to bag some EURUSD pips on momentum breaks of 50/100s at some stage................

 

[JTrader]

EURUSD -

down 12 pips including a 4 pip gap, then up 11 pips - all between 1245-1246 today = scary stuff, not knowing when such a gap may materialise for no apparent reason .
Again, perhaps its due to a thin market/less participants in the first week of January, as many city traders are still on Christmas leave??

 

[ChowClown]

Today's vebo orders in at 478 long, 375 short.

..short slipped by 44 pips! Filled at 331 (first slippage using Oanda since 1st July '06). Stop now at b/e.

 

[Bluewave]

US Non-Farm Payrolls and Hourly earnings grow against expectations
Fri, Jan 5 2007, 13:47 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – The good reading of December’s Non-Farm Payrolls has been rather unexpected, as well as the higher average hourly earnings, which could be seen as yet another sign that U.S. economy is coping with both the housing market slump and the manufacturing sector’s weakness.

Non farm payrolls rose with 167,000 jobs in December after a revised growth of 154,000 in the previous month; which was previously estimated at 132,000. October data has also been upwardly revised to 86,000 from the previously released 79,000, according to data from the Commerce Department.

The jobless rate remained unchanged at 4.5% in December.

 

[Offshore Trader]

..short slipped by 44 pips! Filled at 331 (first slippage using Oanda since 1st July '06). Stop now at b/e.

My orders were at 75...City Index filled at 40, IG at 13.5!! Luckily I had most with City who are consistently good. Closed most of it already though because I think 1.3000 is going to be pretty fierce support on EUR/USD

 

[coolTrader]

..short slipped by 44 pips! Filled at 331 (first slippage using Oanda since 1st July '06). Stop now at b/e.

Yes you have to be careful during the news their spread can widen as much as 20pips. which will account for part of the slippage. I use the boundaries.

 

[JTrader]

OT - I think 1.3000 is going to be pretty fierce support on EUR/USD
(GB) Offshore Trader is online now Report Bad Post Add to Offshore Trader's Reputation

I think so as well, although its taken me -12 pips of trying to go short to realise this! Silly mistakes, hopefully a good lesson learnt, 1.3000 is not likely to fall without a fight, but you never can say for sure....!

In this type of situation having access to forex level 2, whether it be EBS, Reutuers, Bloomberg, would be useful, because if support is as heavy as it might be, and you could see this on the bid side, I'd probably see that price wasn't heading too far below 1.3000 and wouldn't dream of trying to short it!

 

[JTrader]

Have made 3 trades since 1330, on each occasion was referred to a dealer for manual confirmation - fair enough.
The first two saw a 5 second delay. For the third I was waiting 30 seconds for confirmation, by this time I was desperate to get out for -9 pips.
It is not fair that they should want to manually confirm your order, take 30 seconds to confirm the price, and in the mean time all you want to do is be able to open an order ticket to exit the trade, knowing that if they confirm the price you clicked on 30 seconds ago, you will suffer a significant loss.
If they can't confirm your trade price within a maximum of a few seconds, a re-quote should be the standard response - NFP day or not.

Still, this taught me a few lessons -
1. I should have realised from the fist two trades that the 3rd may well have been referred to a dealer.
2. Support around 1.3000 is likely to be pretty determined. More fierce than at say 1.3100 or 1.3200.
3. Don't **** about with the employment report in the first 15+ minutes, without being prepared for a few setbacks.