JohnG FX said:Morning everyone
Thanks for the welcome yesterday
Well made some on a short from the trendline break yesterday and then got some more on the bounce from the 9640's so at least came out ahead. currently flat on cable
A not unusual move yesterday, strong CPI makes everyone buy the USD and then after 15 minutes thinking about it everyone comes to the conclusion that it's irrelevant and won't change the Feds stance in the ST so treasuries come back and USD goes back to where it started.
Fundamentals purely on the interest differential support a stronger GBP against the EUR and USD, but...... we have had a pretty big move of 500 pips straight up in the last 2 weeks so even though I don't doubt we will have a go at breaking 9850 for an attempted run at 2.0 in the next couple of weeks there's not much momentum from current levels.
The fly in the ointment is swissy being stretched to the topside and looks like i wants to correct lower, similarly EUR/GBP stretched on the downside. so if those 2 converge then cable could still head up unless there is a correction on the crosses.
A bit of a conundrum. I'm asuming swissy and EUR/GBP will converge so have taken the obvious cross trade to take advantage of that,
Shorted GBP/CHF this morning @ 2.4612 potential shooting star on the daily and big negative D on the 4hr. No firm downside target, will use the 4hr chart for an exit, bit 2.4311 looks like a potential first target
On cable going to wait to see what happens after the retail numbers but have taken a 1 week long call with a 9860 strike for 35 pips and a 1 week long put with a 9585 strike for 24 pips.
Not looking so much for those to make money more as a forward hedge so I can short from the 9850's or long from 9580's within the next week with no downsid risk.
Anyway - just my views :|
Interesting stuff John. Im also looking to short the GBP/CHF after spotting the bearish engulfing pattern, however, I dont have an entry signal until around 4585. As for Cable, I still have my shorts from yesterday (Aggregate 9705), with a stop at 9790. Very concerned that daily close was above strong 9730 res yesterday, however, I think there could be a bearish engulfing pattern forming on the hourly. Im hoping for a run down to 9608.
