Commentary on The Journey from the Basement

[Lúidín]

I am still holding AIG , Citi , RIMM , Bear stearns , Lehman shares from 2007 highs i didn't lose anything yet hence i didn't sell , and i am still holding Zynga btw :smart:

if you are talking about busts..diversification..remember..how many times do i have to keep repeating

no one ever said that you can not lose on one stock..for..that would not be factual

it is all about knowing what you are doing..and having sufficient capital to do it..plain and simple..you can argue till the cows come home..it will not change the facts

 

[hhiusa]

if you are talking about busts..diversification..remember..how many times do i have to keep repeating

no one ever said that you can not lose on one stock..for..that would not be factual

it is all about knowing what you are doing..and having sufficient capital to do it..plain and simple..you can argue till the cows come home..it will not change the facts

Save your breath Luidin! Tar only likes arguing. He would rather talk about these trades more than anything. He will never show us these illusive trades of which he speaks.

I have been trying to tell him about the part in blue.

 

[tar]

if you are talking about busts..diversification..remember..how many times do i have to keep repeating

no one ever said that you can not lose on one stock..for..that would not be factual

it is all about knowing what you are doing..and having sufficient capital to do it..plain and simple..you can argue till the cows come home..it will not change the facts

You changed the topic , our topic was that an unrealized loss is a loss , i have no problem with buy and hold investing strategies ...

 

[hhiusa]

No, my advice was about being thinly capitalized. Unrealized means not yet created. Mark to market is meaningless on a one to two day scale. For tax purposes, they are not tax deductible losses until I close and realize a loss. You can continue to include unrealized earnings into your gains if you wish. Only an idiot closes at a loss if he can help it to say nothing of more long term strategies. If it dips and I am going to hold it, I will buy more to decrease my average price. If you cannot afford to hold it and wait out the storm, then that is your issue.

You are most likely having to sell prematurely because you are leveraging, not diversifying and are thinly capitalized. It is extremely simple what Luidin is saying. Do not put all your eggs in one basket. If you have the money you should be diversifying. If you have the money, you should not be leveraging.

 

[hhiusa]

In an example picking stocks, there is a bag of marbles and each marble represents a stock. There are 45 black marble and 5 white marbles. Black marbles represent failures. White marbles represent successes. If you do not diversify then you can only choose once from the bag of marbles. If you diversify you can choose more than once.

P(X<=4) = f(4; 50, 5, 10) (5 Choose 4 * 45 Choose 6)/(50 Choose 10) = 99.5%

P(X=1) = f(1; 50, 5, 1) (5 Choose14 * 45 Choose 0)/(50 Choose 1) = 10%

So if you only chose one stock or marble and did not diversify, there would be a 10% chance.

If you chose 10 stocks or marble, then there is a 99.5% probability that up to 4 would be successes.

 

[Lúidín]

No, my advice was about being thinly capitalized. Unrealized means not yet created. Mark to market is meaningless on a one to two day scale. For tax purposes, they are not tax deductible losses until I close and realize a loss. You can continue to include unrealized earnings into your gains if you wish. Only an idiot closes at a loss if he can help it to say nothing of more long term strategies. If it dips and I am going to hold it, I will buy more to decrease my average price. If you cannot afford to hold it and wait out the storm, then that is your issue.

You are most likely having to sell prematurely because you are leveraging, not diversifying and are thinly capitalized. It is extremely simple what Luidin is saying. Do not put all your eggs in one basket. If you have the money you should be diversifying. If you have the money, you should not be leveraging.

again..the best way to explain is by example

yesterday..i bought 100 shares in XIV..i did not use a stop as my size was small..if i had traded 500 shares and used a 30 cent stop..my stop would have been hit

result..i closed trade for $122 profit..instead of losing $150..this is simple maths..which is all i need to make money

 

[hhiusa]

again..the best way to explain is by example

yesterday..i bought 100 shares in XIV..i did not use a stop as my size was small..if i had traded 500 shares and used a 30 cent stop..my stop would have been hit

result..i closed trade for $122 profit..instead of losing $150..this is simple maths..which is all i need to make money

That makes good sense to me.

 

[Lúidín]

That makes good sense to me.

and it makes good cents for me

 

[tar]

again..the best way to explain is by example

yesterday..i bought 100 shares in XIV..i did not use a stop as my size was small..if i had traded 500 shares and used a 30 cent stop..my stop would have been hit

result..i closed trade for $122 profit..instead of losing $150..this is simple maths..which is all i need to make money

Thank God etfs dont have an expiration date so you can close at any time you wish !

 

[hhiusa]

Thank God etfs have no expiration date so you can close at any time you wish !

Goodness me go be a child somewhere else. What a cop out answer.

 

[Splitlink]

again..the best way to explain is by example

Which means You, I suppose.

 

[Lúidín]

Thank God etfs have no expiration date so you can close at any time you wish !

do not underestimate the power of trading small size..if you can not be in full control..then trading large size is very risky..

i really think you do not fully understand what are talking about..which is..the best way to make money trading..but..it all depends on your circumstances

 

[hhiusa]

Which means You, I suppose.

Do you have anything to add besides snide remarks. Nope. I did not think so.

 

[darktone]

Oo oo, me got some questions.

1) Whilst long dax at 10000 it fallses down to 9700 then whooooshes back up to 9980 3mins mins later, which is where I closed it.
Q) What is my loose?

2) I got 1K in mi bestest spreadbetting acc (F.F.F the revenue) and im exclusively swingin 1 pound per point Dax M.A.X, nooo stops, But, at the press of a button,, ive another 9k waiting to funding the acc.
Q) Am I leveraged risk taking mofo at 10/1 or snoozing slowmo at 1/1?
Q2) What benefit if any do I have of not having the full 10k in mi tarding acc?

3) I only tarding the DAX. No thing else!!
Q) Do I have all mi eggs in one basket or do I have a basket of eggs?
Q2) What colour is your underwear?

Think thats bout it..Hic

Best
Darky

 

[hhiusa]

Oo oo, me got some questions.

1) Whilst long dax at 10000 it fallses down to 9700 then whooooshes back up to 9980 3mins mins later, which is where I closed it.
Q) What is my loose?

2) I got 1K in mi bestest spreadbetting acc (F.F.F the revenue) and im exclusively swingin 1 pound per point Dax M.A.X, nooo stops, But, at the press of a button,, ive another 9k waiting to funding the acc.
Q) Am I leveraged risk taking mofo at 10/1 or snoozing slowmo at 1/1?
Q2) What benefit if any do I have of not having the full 10k in mi tarding acc?

3) I only tarding the DAX. No thing else!!
Q) Do I have all mi eggs in one basket or do I have a basket of eggs?
Q2) What colour is your underwear?

Think thats bout it..Hic

Best
Darky

I know that your snide comments are your way of telling me that you do not have the capability to respond with a worthwhile comment.

 

[darktone]

I know that your snide comments are your way of telling me that you do not have the capability to respond with a worthwhile comment.

They are simple questions, no more no less. Your mind however will turn them into anything you choose. So,, choose. Just follow your mind. Right.. :smart:

 

[Lúidín]

They are simple questions, no more no less. Your mind however will turn them into anything you choose. So,, choose. Just follow your mind. Right.. :smart:

how about some live trades to explain your reasoning..you know where the thread is..or do you also prefer to talk about trading with others more so than showing some live trades to help others here

tim said t2w is all about helping others..so why don't people do that..instead of trying to confuse them

just asking!

 

[darktone]

how about some live trades to explain your reasoning..you know where the thread is..or do you also prefer to talk about trading with others more so than showing some live trades to help others here

tim said t2w is all about helping others..so why don't people do that..instead of trying to confuse them

just asking!

Oh Lucy, Ive done the tarde thread, done a few live calls, even posted up some R.E.A.L statements. I just dont have the ego for it anymore ya know .
Was just hoping you guys throw me a bone. Especially you man, Small size no stops. I mean seriously, I really dig dat sh!t!

Btw. How comes you like soco so much? He used ta luva the stops. Even Batman knows that.

 

[Lúidín]

Oh Lucy, Ive done the tarde thread, done a few live calls, even posted up some R.E.A.L statements. I just dont have the ego for it anymore ya know .
Was just hoping you guys throw me a bone. Especially you man, Small size no stops. I mean seriously, I really dig dat sh!t!

Btw. How comes you like soco so much? He used ta luva the stops. Even Batman knows that.

were did i say dat SOCRTES way of trdn wuz mne..i had no intrst in vsa or de way SOCRTES trded..but..i had intest in de way he wuz able to read ppl

i taut only dogs eat bones :cheesy:

 

[Forexmospherian]

how about some live trades to explain your reasoning..you know where the thread is..or do you also prefer to talk about trading with others more so than showing some live trades to help others here

tim said t2w is all about helping others..so why don't people do that..instead of trying to confuse them

just asking!

Hi Luidin

First question

Are you Pat Murphy ?

Second Question

Have you ever looked at my FX trading threads ?

I have been commenting everyday on this forum for over 2 years - approx. 450 trading days

An average day - I call 10- to 20 trades

Last year we had the debate about LIVE CALLS IN ADVANCE

On an average week I call between 5 to 10 - all in advance of the moves entirely

If you want to trawl through the thread - there is maybe over 4000+ trade calls and easily over 500 in advance of the moves.

If you want tomorrow I will call 3 +

Trouble is - I will never show my live account info - others do - on live accounts as well

Its no big deal at all calling live trades is advance

Being Intraday - I cannot call 30 mins before I trade as I work on 3 to 7 pip stops - so scalps only 1 min in advance swing trades from 5 to 20 mins in advance

Some days I have a 75% + win ratios on 15+ trades

Other days I can have 3 to 5 consecutive losses - all under 5 pips

Its part of trading - I can multi task as well - piece of cake and my live stake size is from 1 to 5 lots per pip

Believe me or not - I don't really care a t*ss - but I don't want to be a free trade alert service so like today - I take the trades and with 5 to 10 mins call the swings that might last from 30 to 120 mins + and make anything from 15 to 100 pips

On tight stops a 20 pip winning trade can give a RR of over 3

All the best Pat - keep it up for 6 months plus with live calls and then you will have some credibility

Regards


F