Brexit and the Consequences

[Pat494]

I see that the Tory back benchers ( about 30 ) will bring down Mrs Poos Govt if she insists on cutting Army numbers to 72,000.
The present alliance is very shakey. It is only the thought of Labour getting in by this back door, that it continues.

 

[Atilla]

UK is not being straight with the public

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vide...r-u-k-is-not-being-straight-with-public-video


And another...


A Thriving British Industry Confronts the Price of Brexit
Aerospace might be more integrated with continental Europe than any British sector. Not for long.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...ritish-industry-confronts-the-price-of-brexit



I was listening Airbus CEO talking on telly and she said that Airbus has great resources and well integrated with EU bodies. However, she had some concerns over the supply chain if WTO rules were introduced as that would create supply side risks that were beyond their control and thus would be an issue for them that needed resolution one way or another.

At the same time large number of industries are reporting a decline of orders as they wait to see outcome of Brexit before placing any new significant orders. This is likely to be the substitution of orders moving away from UK suppliers in favour of EU ones so as not to face disruption at a later date.

Uncertainty all around. Yet we still don't know what the case for Brexit will look like other than, reduced corporation tax and a mafiozi tax haven for tax dodgers all over the world. :whistling

 

[sminicooper]

Economics vs Politics

Forget the economics for a moment and read this:

"Last week two hugely important events occurred that will not only make or break Brexit but determine the future of all of Europe. The first was the apparent acquiescence by Theresa May to Michael Gove’s demand that Britain will not be bound by European regulation as part of any trade deal.

We will, of course, believe it when we see it. For those of us old enough to remember, May’s leadership seems like a dismal re-run of the John Major years, made all the more depressing and painful because the stakes are now so much higher. Like Major before her, May is a grey, mediocre careerist who loathes risk and whose every instinct is to cave in and seek ‘compromise’ (i.e. surrender) on any given position. Flat-footed, reactive and utterly without vision, the kind of person for whom a bird in the hand is worth a thousand in the bush, everything in her track record suggests that her instincts will be to avoid ‘crashing out’ of the EU. Despite her rhetoric, for her any deal at all is better than no deal.

It therefore seems highly unlikely that May will stick to her guns, and that way utter disaster lies. A trade deal that tied us to European regulation would almost certainly mean continued membership of the Single Market in all but name, reducing Britain to the status of a European Union colony. The brief, fleeting promise Brexit afforded would disappear, and we would surely become a psychologically broken nation that Europe could threaten and bully whenever it pleased, no doubt demanding we follow future diktats on pain of the trade relationship being withdrawn. A low-growth, thoroughly demoralised country without belief in itself or its institutions would surely be highly susceptible to the siren song of the classical Marxist message of Corbyn and McDonnell’s new model Labour Party.

The EU itself is also at a critical juncture. On the one hand, its plans for an anti-democratic super-state are rapidly reaching fruition with last week’s second hugely important event – the highly ominous announcement that an EU army is being formed. On the other hand, the EU is racked by nationalist tensions that could yet break it up or at least force it on to a radically different path – maybe, at the risk of sounding very naïve, to being the collection of friendly, free-trading nation-states it always should have been. Armies in the hands of unaccountable elites facing nationalist revolt rarely end well, and it is not in Britain’s or Europe’s interest that the hands of the Brussels elites are strengthened before this nightmare is realised. For their part, the EU elites know the time is short and are plainly terrified that Brexit Britain will provide an example for others to follow.

Brexit, therefore, is in its largest sense not just about the economic future of Britain but a moral imperative on which the fate of all of Europe hinges. Indeed, it is even bigger than that: the entire Western world has fallen into a deep cultural malaise over the past few decades. The social capital it built through its Judeo-Christian heritage over centuries is all but destroyed, inevitably now severely affecting future growth prospects. Well beyond the short-term gains of economic deregulation, rebuilding that capital will require determination and a renewed sense of self-belief. Such a psychological reset can come about only with a sharp break from the recent past and opportunity to discover what we once were and can be again – a dynamic free-trading nation of its heritage and traditions.

In 1805 Pitt the Younger called on Britain to ‘save Europe by our example’. Let us strive to save not just Europe but the Western world by our example today.

Hold fast, Mrs May."

Source and other reader comments here: https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/andrew-cadman-hold-fast-brexit-mrs-may/

 

[Pat494]

Just as Trump's America has all but acknowledged it cannot be bothered to compete in the world's economy so will Britain and Europe. They are in the process of adopting high tariff barriers to keep out not just cheaper imports but better value imports. China, India etc, will retaliate.
But don't worry our UK leadership will flog off our best companies at fire sale prices and hope to keep afloat by encouraging immigration.

 

[Atilla]

Who rights these articles? Numpties the lot of'm!

Forget the economics for a moment and read this:

"Last week two hugely important events occurred that will not only make or break Brexit but determine the future of all of Europe. Build up. OMG this must be important! We are going to get to find out what determines the future of all Europe! How exciting??? The first was the apparent acquiescence by Theresa May to Michael Gove’s demand Who the feck is Michael Gove? Is he really the man who'll determine the future of all Europe???? that Britain will not be bound by European regulation as part of any trade deal.

I wonder if some people have a brain? That rare ability to think and challenge what's being said to them.





We will, of course, believe it when we see it. For those of us old enough to remember, May’s leadership seems like a dismal re-run of the John Major years, made all the more depressing and painful because the stakes are now so much higher. Like Major before her, May is a grey, mediocre careerist who loathes risk and whose every instinct is to cave in and seek ‘compromise’ (i.e. surrender) on any given position. Flat-footed, reactive and utterly without vision, the kind of person for whom a bird in the hand is worth a thousand in the bush, everything in her track record suggests that her instincts will be to avoid ‘crashing out’ of the EU. Despite her rhetoric, for her any deal at all is better than no deal.

It therefore seems highly unlikely that May will stick to her guns, and that way utter disaster lies. A trade deal that tied us to European regulation would almost certainly mean continued membership of the Single Market in all but name, reducing Britain to the status of a European Union colony. The brief, fleeting promise Brexit afforded would disappear, and we would surely become a psychologically broken nation that Europe could threaten and bully whenever it pleased, no doubt demanding we follow future diktats on pain of the trade relationship being withdrawn. A low-growth, thoroughly demoralised country without belief in itself or its institutions would surely be highly susceptible to the siren song of the classical Marxist message of Corbyn and McDonnell’s new model Labour Party.

The EU itself is also at a critical juncture. On the one hand, its plans for an anti-democratic Who says EU is anti-democratic? It's voluntary membership. Hellooooooooooo! With several tiers of membership!!!! How may times has this been repeated? super-state are rapidly reaching fruition with last week’s second hugely important event – the highly ominous announcement that an EU army is being formed. On the other hand, the EU is racked by nationalist tensions that could yet break it up or at least force it on to a radically different path – maybe, at the risk of sounding very naïve, to being the collection of friendly, free-trading nation-states it always should have been. Armies in the hands of unaccountable elites facing nationalist revolt rarely end well, and it is not in Britain’s or Europe’s interest that the hands of the Brussels elites are strengthened before this nightmare is realised. For their part, the EU elites know the time is short and are plainly terrified that Brexit Britain will provide an example for others to follow.

Brexit, therefore, is in its largest sense not just about the economic future of Britain but a moral imperative on which the fate of all of Europe hinges. B0ll0cks to the writers morals. Doesn't reflect mine. Indeed, it is even bigger than that: the entire Western world ENTIRE WESTERN WORLD - WTF is this guy on? has fallen into a deep cultural malaise over the past few decades. The social capital it built through its Judeo-Christian heritage over centuries is all but destroyed, inevitably now severely affecting future growth prospects. Well beyond the short-term gains of economic deregulation, rebuilding that capital will require determination and a renewed sense of self-belief. Such a psychological reset can come about only with a sharp break from the recent past and opportunity to discover what we once were and can be again – a dynamic free-trading nation of its heritage and traditions.

In 1805 Pitt the Younger called on Britain to ‘save Europe by our example’. Let us strive to save not just Europe but the Western world by our example today.

Hold fast, Mrs May."

Source and other reader comments here: https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/andrew-cadman-hold-fast-brexit-mrs-may/

Mini matey if you think that is a serious article you need your head examined imho.

What a load of pretentious pumped up tosh. Really, you need to be just a trifle more discerning. EU and the rest of the Western world doesn't think too much of Brexit other than calculating opportunities for stealing business.


Addenda: Typical isn't it. Writer is a UKIP man. I'm guessing we are supposed to be impressed with his qualifications. I'd hazard a guess they are trumped up much like his article.


By Andrew Cadman

Dr Cadman is a London-based Data Scientist/Developer with extensive experience in scientific research, IT development and entrepreneurial start-ups. He is a member of Ukip.

 

[mike.]

Who says EU is anti-democratic? It's voluntary membership

So there will be no problem when we leave then, No ransom money to be paid and go back to secure borders.

While im on...WTO tariffs... Can you explain why manufacturers and sales from outside the EU like Hyundai and Kia cars, African wine etc,etc all paying a WTO tariff to import to the uk can remain competitive if not cheaper than EU imports under a free trade agreement ? and the fact we pay 350m per week for the privilege to be part of that free trade agreement...Something doesn't quite add up..

 

[barjon]

£50billion divorce bill! That’s 1 - 0 to the EU then.

 

[sminicooper]

£50billion divorce bill! That’s 1 - 0 to the EU then.

Mein Gott! And I'd been thinking that was their reparation of what they owed us

 

[Splitlink]

So you are going to pay 50-60 billion? I thought that someone said that we would not. I do wish that people would get their facts right.

 

[sminicooper]

So you are going to pay 50-60 billion? I thought that someone said that we would not. I do wish that people would get their facts right.

At the moment it's all talk! You can find whatever figure you want if you look in the right place. And whatever your belief is about Brexit you can also find plenty of support for it dependent upon whom you listen to and their place on the political spectrum.

Trading is much less hassle

 

[Atilla]

So there will be no problem when we leave then, No ransom money to be paid and go back to secure borders.

While im on...WTO tariffs... Can you explain why manufacturers and sales from outside the EU like Hyundai and Kia cars, African wine etc,etc all paying a WTO tariff to import to the uk can remain competitive if not cheaper than EU imports under a free trade agreement ? and the fact we pay 350m per week for the privilege to be part of that free trade agreement...Something doesn't quite add up..

That is so because, car industries in Spain, Italy, France and Germany need protection from ultra cheap labour.

You a free marketeer but unable to think about extended consequences.

Moreover, the Asian tigers get lots of Government help and subsidies. Predatory pricing exists between nations too. They'll sell below cost to take up market share and see your industries ground to a halt and once beaten raise prices again.

Issue with Brexiters is that you think the grass is always greener on the other side without any consequence. UK knows jack about manufacturing or defending industries. You are one of those bodies that Pat gets so worked up about selling all national assets including centuries old manufacturing businesses.

You should question what the UK will buy and sell? Let me explain to you... Only freaking plans I've heard from the likes of Farage and Brexiters is that we can setup competing Eurodollar market to undercut the Europeans trading Euros. What a daft fecking idea from a so called ex-trader

Then there is tax haven and corporation tax <12% to beat the Irish in their own game.

So what exactly will UK be selling other than buying stuff cheaper from elsewhere?
This question was asked before. What is UK's USP?

 

[Atilla]

So you are going to pay 50-60 billion? I thought that someone said that we would not. I do wish that people would get their facts right.

Yes Split you are correct and on the ball again.

Davies said right at the start, that he'll consider a transition deal to be nice to the Europeans if they ask for one.

He then got the rocket up his ar5e when British business told him it was essential.

The document analysing 58 industries and impact of Brexit is obviously very bad. So bad they can't release it in the national interest. What does that tell you? I said this before, if it was good, I'd be shouting it from the roof tops and waving it in front of the Europeans noses.

Instead there was talk of him quitting and now we hear doubling of what TM is prepared to pay. All the tough talk about no deal is better than bad deal n all is like well that was yesterday. Let's get real today.


No worries, we have Michael Gove to save the future of Europe by and the rest of the Great Western World, I can only assume that means US too.

Thank goodness for that! Step aside Mr POTUS...

Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum

 

[Signalcalc]

That is so because, car industries in Spain, Italy, France and Germany need protection from ultra cheap labour.

Good news that we are implementing our own protection from cheap labour then:

http://www.westmonster.com/construc...ean-british-workers-being-offered-more-money/

 

[Atilla]

Good news that we are implementing our own protection from cheap labour then:

http://www.westmonster.com/construc...ean-british-workers-being-offered-more-money/

What are the choices on offer? UK has a productivity and aging problem.

First productivity. If UK citizens refuse to work for min wage how do you think reducing migration will help productivity when wages rise? Higher pay for less work. This simply means what ever is produced will be less competitive. The currency collapse will only have a one shot benefit. If you are not exporting than everything that is produced will cost more for other UK citizens to purchase.

Just saying by stopping migration we'll raise wages and not expect anything else to change is nonsense.

Secondly, the aging issue. Increased tax burden and greater NHS and many other bills associated with aging. Once again health care support workers are much in demand. I know from experience. UK citizen simply not stepping up to the plate.

Builders might enjoy Brexit stopping decent builders from abroad coming in and in most cases doing better quality work at lower prices. However, this means rest of population will lose out paying more for less quality work.

Then there is the skilled workers to consider. Simply means jobs requiring skills will move; much like in medicine or finance or legal professions. Not only will they go to where the skilled labour is, European countries are giving inducements to attract these industries.

Then there is the other side of the coin where skilled British talent will go abroad too. The economics of the argument doesn't hold water.

We are not just simply competing with our neighbours for work. It's a global stage. We are competing with rest of the world.

There is a flaw in the free market argument for movement of goods and servivces as well as capital but not for labour. It will skew your model.

Reason why EU works so well is precisely because all factors of production are free to move withing borders of the common market. Whilst that market place is protected in a controlled way.

Still see lots of foreign cars on the roads. So WTO tariffs not excessive. EU model is clearly a success, so much so that the rest of the World is moving towards similar practice.


Then there are what's called national strategic industries that EU protects. UK pays no heed for these industries and the people who talk about open markets don't really give a toss about migration, as long as it gets them elected. Every freaking Tory party and Foreign Minister has promised a reduction and yet we've had increases.

Would you say that's just bad management or deliberate intentional policy driven to maintain productivity growth whilst bearing pressure preventing wage increase? It is clearly the latter but some may well disagree.

 

[Signalcalc]

What are the choices on offer? UK has a productivity and aging problem.



First productivity. If UK citizens refuse to work for min wage how do you think reducing migration will help productivity when wages rise? Higher pay for less work. This simply means what ever is produced will be less competitive. The currency collapse will only have a one shot benefit. If you are not exporting than everything that is produced will cost more for other UK citizens to purchase.



Just saying by stopping migration we'll raise wages and not expect anything else to change is nonsense.



Secondly, the aging issue. Increased tax burden and greater NHS and many other bills associated with aging. Once again health care support workers are much in demand. I know from experience. UK citizen simply not stepping up to the plate.



Builders might enjoy Brexit stopping decent builders from abroad coming in and in most cases doing better quality work at lower prices. However, this means rest of population will lose out paying more for less quality work.



Then there is the skilled workers to consider. Simply means jobs requiring skills will move; much like in medicine or finance or legal professions. Not only will they go to where the skilled labour is, European countries are giving inducements to attract these industries.



Then there is the other side of the coin where skilled British talent will go abroad too. The economics of the argument doesn't hold water.



We are not just simply competing with our neighbours for work. It's a global stage. We are competing with rest of the world.



There is a flaw in the free market argument for movement of goods and servivces as well as capital but not for labour. It will skew your model.



Reason why EU works so well is precisely because all factors of production are free to move withing borders of the common market. Whilst that market place is protected in a controlled way.



Still see lots of foreign cars on the roads. So WTO tariffs not excessive. EU model is clearly a success, so much so that the rest of the World is moving towards similar practice.





Then there are what's called national strategic industries that EU protects. UK pays no heed for these industries and the people who talk about open markets don't really give a toss about migration, as long as it gets them elected. Every freaking Tory party and Foreign Minister has promised a reduction and yet we've had increases.



Would you say that's just bad management or deliberate intentional policy driven to maintain productivity growth whilst bearing pressure preventing wage increase? It is clearly the latter but some may well disagree.

Not many have the benefit of your economic and political wisdom though Atilla. What really matters at the end of the day is which way the man on the street ends up voting [emoji3]

 

[sminicooper]

Not many have the benefit of your economic and political wisdom though Atilla. What really matters at the end of the day is which way the man on the street ends up voting [emoji3]

And that's the point about Brexit isn't it? There is a whole section of the political/economic elite that knows better than us ordinary people and in their belief think that our vote is unworthy. I see that Tony Blair the Messiah and worldly wise God of War has set up an operation to prevent us leaving the EU /re-enter later on. When on earth will they just give up and accede to the wishes of the democratically enfranchised punters?

 

[Pat494]

The people who didn't have a good understanding what Brexit meant should NOT have voted - like me.

The sooner AI can give an unbiased opinion the better.

Perhaps someone in the know can explain just why we are paying £50 billion to leave such a crappy organisation. Is it a case of weakness at the top or something more sinister like kick-backs ?

 

[timsk]

. . .Perhaps someone in the know can explain just why we are paying £50 billion to leave such a crappy organisation. Is it a case of weakness at the top or something more sinister like kick-backs?

Pat,
I think the answer to that lies in this post by sminicoopper a few pages back. My view is that we should honour our commitments up to the day we leave - but only pay what we're obliged to pay. Anything above that the EU can 'go whistle'!
Tim.

 

[tomorton]

Can I request an alarm call for when this is all over?

 

[Signalcalc]

Even though I've never really liked Noel Gallagher, in a kind of less formal way he adds to my view that there really is Hobson's choice when it comes to voting for one of the main political parties :cheesy:

noel-gallagher-****-jeremy-corbyn-communist