Brexit and the Consequences

[timsk]

. . . I think it would be a big mistake for the Europeans to underestimate Britain's resolve. I hope they don't make the mistake of trying to back us into a corner.

My gut feeling is that when all the deals are done and the dust has settled - there won't be anything hugely different to life as it is now - either for us or for the rest of Europe. That's in the (relatively) short term. In the longer term - i.e. five years plus - the gradual changes will build into something substantial. But it will take a long time for that to happen. As for the EU negotiating team making life tough for us - that's not going to happen. The reason being that, potentially, they have more to lose if they do. Imagine this scenario . . .

In two years time, all the economists and so called experts unite and say the deal (whatever it is) is bad for Britain and good for the EU. Mrs May and the Brexit team are widely castigated, the remainers have a field day and, possibly, the Tories lose the next general election. Now, in spite of all of that, the economy continues to grow, we strike up new trading deals with other countries and all the so called experts are proved wrong - just as they were post referendum. (Sorry, couldn't resist that little dig!) Where does that then leave the EU? Answer: up poo creek in a barbed wire boat without a paddle - that's where.

The default position of the EU negotiating team must surely be to assume that regardless of whatever deals are / aren't made - Britain will pull through and, at the very worst, do okay in the medium to long term. They can then say that's what they always wanted, as it's in their interests for us to do well so they can sell us their cars and wine etc. If they screw us over and we still do well, then that sends out a loud and clear message to the world. And, heaven forbid, if any of the remaining EU counties are struggling, then they'll be banging on the exit door in a bid to join us. That's the nightmare scenario too awful to contemplate for the EU and one that it will do everything it can to avoid - even if it means giving us a better deal than they would like. This is what will be in the back of the EU negotiators minds throughout this whole process and it's why - in broad terms - Britain will get more or less what she wants.

So, all you remainers out there can sleep easy - safe in the knowledge that everything is just dandy and that you, your children and grandchildren can look forward to a rosy future!

Tim.

 

[sminicooper]

My gut feeling is that when all the deals are done and the dust has settled - there won't be anything hugely different to life as it is now - either for us or for the rest of Europe. That's in the (relatively) short term. In the longer term - i.e. five years plus - the gradual changes will build into something substantial. But it will take a long time for that to happen. As for the EU negotiating team making life tough for us - that's not going to happen. The reason being that, potentially, they have more to lose if they do.

Tim.

Probably the most realistic comment I've read on this thread - or anywhere else for that matter!

 

[mike.]

It seems seriously anti-British to be anti-Brexit. F economics, What ever happened to national pride, don't you think?

In 2015 it was approximately £3 to join the Labour Party and have the right to vote in the leadership election , That's exactly what many conservatives did and what a investment it turned out to be. I watched PM's Q's last night, corbyn is a "turtle post" no idea how he got up there, nobody wants him there and certainly shouldn't be there, Farron was probably in a passionate embrace with a Norwegian Spruce somewhere that he never turned up and Alex Salmond was shot down and looked like a scared puppy. Theresa May looked like a strong leader all in all . I think we have a strong team going forward.

 

[Atilla]

What we have here gentlemen is a failure to communicate.

 

[Jason101]

Will you be joining the debate?

I am so tempted, but fear any participation, would soon turn into a full time job!

 

[barjon]

..............My gut feeling is that when all the deals are done and the dust has settled - there won't be anything hugely different to life as it is now - either for us or for the rest of Europe. That's in the (relatively) short term. In the longer term - i.e. five years plus - the gradual changes will build into something substantial. But it will take a long time for that to happen. As for the EU negotiating team making life tough for us - that's not going to happen. The reason being that, potentially, they have more to lose if they do. Imagine this scenario".............
Tim.

You may well be right, Tim, and you do argue a good case. It does, though, seem to rely on this business of "they have more to lose than us". They were quite happy to trot along without us initially and on what basis do they have more to lose? Balance of trade? Well, in that case USA have more to lose than us but I can't see that cutting much ice with Mr Trump.

The contrary argument is surely that the EU cannot afford to allow us to take the advantages without bearing any of the responsibilities. Yes, they will negotiate a deal but I doubt that it can be done without us compromising on the responsibilities we take. These, particular free movement of labour, obeying a huge tranche of EU legislation and stumping up a bit of cash, will strike against the very reasons people voted to leave in the first place.

 

[counter_violent]

I am so tempted, but fear any participation, would soon turn into a full time job!

I know what you mean. Beats talking about trading though!

 

[counter_violent]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39439554

Europeans have got some cheek, I tell ya.
Here's a quote regarding security.

"The prime minister's words sparked an angry reaction from some EU officials who said security was too important to be used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations."

Well excuse me but, the UK is not responsible for Europeans security, especially since they operate such lackadaisical policies, open borders, schengen zone, free movement, external border mayhem, economic refugee invasion.

Why don't they get off their asses, do something about it. Then it would not even be an issue.

On the contrary, they just expect UK and the US to keep them safe and to take action on their behalf should they get into any difficulty.
It's about time they grew up.

 

[counter_violent]

And another thing.

They can forget all about lumping us with some massive exit bill.

The counter argument to that is. You can reimburse us for all those assets that belong to the EU.

In any business there are assets and liabilities. Economics 101. Basic stuff this.

 

[sminicooper]

On the contrary, they just expect UK and the US to keep them safe and to take action on their behalf should they get into any difficulty.
It's about time they grew up.

The Europeans have been freeloading off NATO (UK & USA) for years and wasted the money on political projects. I suspect the new Eastern European members will put pay to that. The aimless direction and non-achievement of the EU is, I suspect, one of the catalysts for Brexit.

 

[Splitlink]

My gut feeling is that when all the deals are done and the dust has settled - there won't be anything hugely different to life as it is now - either for us or for the rest of Europe. That's in the (relatively) short term. In the longer term - i.e. five years plus - the gradual changes will build into something substantial. But it will take a long time for that to happen. As for the EU negotiating team making life tough for us - that's not going to happen. The reason being that, potentially, they have more to lose if they do. Imagine this scenario . . .

In two years time, all the economists and so called experts unite and say the deal (whatever it is) is bad for Britain and good for the EU. Mrs May and the Brexit team are widely castigated, the remainers have a field day and, possibly, the Tories lose the next general election. Now, in spite of all of that, the economy continues to grow, we strike up new trading deals with other countries and all the so called experts are proved wrong - just as they were post referendum. (Sorry, couldn't resist that little dig!) Where does that then leave the EU? Answer: up poo creek in a barbed wire boat without a paddle - that's where.

The default position of the EU negotiating team must surely be to assume that regardless of whatever deals are / aren't made - Britain will pull through and, at the very worst, do okay in the medium to long term. They can then say that's what they always wanted, as it's in their interests for us to do well so they can sell us their cars and wine etc. If they screw us over and we still do well, then that sends out a loud and clear message to the world. And, heaven forbid, if any of the remaining EU counties are struggling, then they'll be banging on the exit door in a bid to join us. That's the nightmare scenario too awful to contemplate for the EU and one that it will do everything it can to avoid - even if it means giving us a better deal than they would like. This is what will be in the back of the EU negotiators minds throughout this whole process and it's why - in broad terms - Britain will get more or less what she wants.

So, all you remainers out there can sleep easy - safe in the knowledge that everything is just dandy and that you, your children and grandchildren can look forward to a rosy future!

Tim.

We are worried about the same things as the UK--and not as interested in the UK as some posters seem to be in the EU!

Joint problems, I think, are likely to be Russia and Turkey. What Trump is likely to do to rock that boat.

 

[Atilla]

Desperation is really seeping out of UK negotiation position.

Key sales tactic is 'fear'. I recall when selling IT Maintenance, Security and Support we'd always highlight things going wrong putting forward worst case scenarios. We all know how fear mongering worked for the remain campaign.

Europe doesn't have a security problem. It has refugee influx problem, one that has been primarily created by US and the UK. Gunship democracy they don't like our way of freedoms so we'll force it down their throats. We'll call that one spring uprising.

Really guys wake up to reality. Libya and Syria has been an absolute catastrophe for Europe. UK, France and Italy were queuing up for contracts that would materialise in Libya across the pond. Sadly, not what one may have envisaged.


As for NATO larky that's worth a laff or two. First we tell Germany not to produce weapons, place all kinds of restrictions including setting up the EU and placing France as the hound dog to watch over it.

Feck that, EU doing really well UK being left behind, join the boat after 10 years negotiations. Now US, UK and France top weapon manufacturers so who is Germany going to buy her weapons from to support NATO. US and UK and France. Yep nice idea.

At the mean time NATO under US direction continues to piling troops and weapons against the Russian border for what reason exactly? To stop Russia invading Europe... That's a good one.

Will Germany go for it having pursued very successful soft diplomacy thus far. Do Germans have any enemies? Yes actually. Probably the US and UK who'll like to displace her manufacturing base.

Suspecting the Russians and Turks as being a problem for the EU is well off base. I don't think neither are interested and they are both trying to cover up the US and UK mess in Syria trying to supress ISIS which was created by guess who to figh Assadd.

There is a wind of change coming towards the far East and both the US and UK are walking towards wilderness - hand in hand.


Wrong diagnosis of issues will ultimately lead to wrong implementation of policies.

 

[Atilla]

Ain't that sweet


Towel Wars Over as Thomas Cook’s Hotels Unite Brits With Germans

 

[counter_violent]

Interesting that the markets have been selling off EUR last couple of days.

That tells you what the money thinks. Politicians can say whatever they like. Follow the money! No confidence in Europe.

 

[mike.]

Nailed it .....


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1j-Gb8Pk2Pk

 

[timsk]

Hiya Jon,

You may well be right, Tim, and you do argue a good case. It does, though, seem to rely on this business of "they have more to lose than us". They were quite happy to trot along without us initially and on what basis do they have more to lose? Balance of trade? Well, in that case USA have more to lose than us but I can't see that cutting much ice with Mr Trump.

Perhaps it would be useful and interesting to explore the idea of which side has more to lose.

As I see it, (and I know you'll think I'm looking at things through rose tinted specs!), the U.K. holds most (but not all) of the trump cards. The EU is in a much trickier position than we are because they're aware of the massive discontent within their own ranks and that some member countries (or factions within those countries) will be watching closely to see how this all plays out. As I've said already, if they screw us over - but we come through it all smiling - then other countries might follow our lead. If they give us everything we want - plus a bit more for good measure - and we do well, then other countries will definitely follow our lead.

So, the obvious question is what happens if we do badly and the dire predictions of the remainers come true? That won't help the EU and it's members at all 'cos it'll mean we won't be buying their cars, wine and bacon etc. If the U.K. economy goes seriously pear shaped - then it'll have a knock on effect on the rest of Europe. (That'll happen regardless of whether we're in or out of the union.) Think of poor ol' Spain if you and I and thousands like us stop going on holiday there because we're broke as a result of the lousy deal we got from the EU! That said, even if they don't offer a deal that's acceptable to us then, as has been made crystal clear before negotiations have even started, we'll just revert to WTO rules. Not ideal perhaps - but hardly a disaster for us either.

So, as I see it, we're in a strong position and it's the EU who are going to have to tread very, very carefully. What they want is actually mutually exclusive. Namely, they want us to do well and prosper (so they can sell us stuff), but also do badly (so we regret leaving and other countries are deterred from following our lead). That is a massive problem for them that we simply don't have. I actually feel sorry for the EU bigwigs and their negotiating team - as it's pretty much a lose : lose proposition for them. Slice it 'n dice it any way you like - Britain is in the driving seat.

The contrary argument is surely that the EU cannot afford to allow us to take the advantages without bearing any of the responsibilities. Yes, they will negotiate a deal but I doubt that it can be done without us compromising on the responsibilities we take. These, particular free movement of labour, obeying a huge tranche of EU legislation and stumping up a bit of cash, will strike against the very reasons people voted to leave in the first place.

I can't speak for others, but my guess is that those of us that voted leave acknowledge there are many positives to the EU. By the same token, there are disadvantages to leaving. Exactly what the latter will be will emerge in due course. So, for me at any rate, compromise is fine and I'm happy in principle to accept many of the responsibilities after we leave that we had when we were in and to pay towards things that benefit us.

I voted leave really only for two reasons:
1. Sovereignty - to take back control. We've got this now regardless of what deal is struck.
2. Imigration. To be clear, I welcome people from all over the world and actively want them to come and live and work here. Moreover, I want Britain to do her bit when it comes to the dire plight of Syrian refugees and others around the world afflicted by horrendous events beyond their control. But - and it's a big but - creating a city the size of Newcastle year on year (or whatever the statistic is), simply isn't sustainable. The infrastructure won't support it and we don't have the money - or space - to be able to provide for this number of people. Therefore, there have to be some controls to limit the number of people we take in. If I was Spanish or French, I wouldn't much care about this issue as they are both huge countries compared to the U.K. Whatever deals are done, regardless of which party is in power, this issue will be addressed to a greater or lesser degree.

To conclude (sorry - this is overly long even by my standards), I'm happy already with where we are. The deals yet to be agreed will not "strike against the very reasons people voted to leave in the first place." Not for me at any rate. I got what really mattered to me on June 23rd last year: anything more will be icing on the cake.
Tim.

 

[mike.]

Excellent post Timsk.

 

[barjon]

Tim

Ok then, which side has more to lose.

Both will lose it seems to me, but who gains? It's a bit much to think that the EU relies on us spreading our £s around. Sure, it might cause them a dent - first from our required contribution and maybe from our shrinking horns if things don't go too well. Their export trade will also come under pressure if no free trade deal is struck.

We are likely to face stiffening competition in those areas where we have taken the leading role in the EU, most notably financial services. With no decent trade deal we might lose the foreign investment that is in place because we were a "gateway to the EU" . "Our" car manufacturers are a case in point - even if the likes of Honda don't go it will be an enormously heavy burden for taxpayers to subsidise them for the WTO duty they would incur on EU sales if it came to that. These losses for us represent gains for the EU as the thing unfolds.

I have no doubt that we will muddle along ok in the end and for sure it will be nice to make our own decisions (as much as any country can in this increasingly globalised world) . I only hope our grandchildren don't have to pay too high a price for the privilege.

 

[Atilla]

Potentially there are other costs involved imo.

R&D - University funding.

Rolls Royse Airbus engines and or Wings manufacture.

ESA and the EuroFighter project.

'If' negotiations turn sour and nasty then where ever we sell into, when possible these exports will be displaced by production from countries in the EU.

They are not small projects either.

Instead of cooperation the rules of engagement will be competition.

I'm still waiting to hear what we'll be selling to the rest of the World that we are not selling already.

UK advantage seems to be all based on what the EU stands to lose or that the EU is getting smaller or that the EU will brake up. All these arguments are against the interests of the UK.

Numpties don't have a clue. The enemy of the state are the very people who go round shouting how bleeding British and patriotic they are. Fools to the point of stupidity.

 

[timsk]

. . .I have no doubt that we will muddle along ok in the end and for sure it will be nice to make our own decisions (as much as any country can in this increasingly globalised world) . I only hope our grandchildren don't have to pay too high a price for the privilege.

Fair points Jon.
Regarding your grandchildren - I rather suspect they'll have much bigger issues on their plate to contend with than the legacy of Brexit - and that's assuming the legacy is a negative one - which I for one don't think it will be. Climate change (environment), nuclear weapons proliferation (war / nutters), unsustainable debt (global financial meltdown) and epidemics (obesity, new strains of flu and the antibiotics resistance crisis etc.)

Dunno about you Jon, but I'm glad I'm not going to be around to have to deal with that lot!
:cheesy:
Tim.