Belflan's US stock swing trades

[jdbzero]

Glen,
looks like we could be in for another bumpy ride today with the Microsoft effect.
As far as market direction is concerned it is not easy at all is it. If you listen to CNBC you would think that all is great and we have bottomed. But is this just window dressing? If you look at the fundamental facts like GDP, retail sales, industrial output, inflation, employment you can get a resonable handle on where the economy is going. Have stocks priced in these fundamentals? Probably not, but doesn't the market discount everything? ... Where do you start ...

Jonathan

 

[Grey1]

do you guys have a framework of thought or measures (for want of a better term) for the overall market direction?

or is there just to many in feeds into the overall market? and Iraj's market experince kicks in to come up with a view?

ta
glen

You all know where I stand with market,, I am bear and any rally is just a short term window dressing case.

I have no plan what so ever to close any of my positions . If i ever realise that I was wrong in my market direction then I will post it here so you all know.. This is not a 3 days swing trade,,, This is a growth porfolio and 3 days is just totally and truly irrelevant to this style of trading ,,,,

Grey1



Grey1

 

[belflan]

So, following on from post no. 235

If my TA of the market is good, my FA and TA of the stocks are good, I could still fail if I do not get the fundamental direction of the market correct.

YOU MUST BE ABLE TO PREDICT THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET SUCCESSFULLY,
or you may fail

____________________________________________________________________

Is there a technical solution to this?

Can the longer-term fundamental trends be seen with TA on a higher time frame. ie. weekly, monthly.(e.g. only be in a long portfolio when the MACCI cycle on the weekly INDU is bullish, only be in a short portfolio when the MACCI cycle on the weekly INDU is bearish.)

Or would this lag the real action too much?

I'm not sure this would work?

____________________________________________________________________


Is there a Fundamental solutions to this?

Can the longer term trends be predicted with FA of the INDU?

The INDU is made up of large cap stocks. Could applying CAPM (or some other model) be used on these stocks to get a view on there value vrs their trading price?

Not sure about this either?


____________________________________________________________________


Is there a 'Big Picture' solution to this?

Should I be looking at instrest rates, oil prices, gold prices etc. To try and establish there impact on the market?

I think this could prove to be difficult?

____________________________________________________________________


Has the market just got too many in feeds, too many random factors to make it predictable?

I don;t think this is true or else guys like G1 would not exist.

________________________________________________________________

Just my thinking at the moment
another journal type post (sorry):whistling

Glen

 

[belflan]

Thank you Grey1 for your post.

You all know where I stand with market,, I am bear and any rally is just a short term window dressing case.

Yes, and it would be a brave (foolish) trader who would go against your view. However for this type of trading this means that Febo, Vegas, Me, and anyone else who is following this strat is totally dependant on you providing your view of the overall market direction (ie Bull or Bear) which you have very, very kindly provided so far.

My aim would be to be able to make these market direction calls with accuracy myself. (and I'm not sure how achievable this is yet)

I have no plan what so ever to close any of my positions . If i ever realise that I was wrong in my market direction then I will post it here so you all know.. This is not a 3 days swing trade,,, This is a growth porfolio and 3 days is just totally and truly irrelevant to this style of trading ,,,,

Grey1



Grey1

I agree with this totally.

Iraj,

Thank you sincerely for your help so far. I have a long way to go to be able to predict (with accuracy) the fundament direction of the overall market. Until then, I guess my trading success is in your hands/goods hands

Thank you
Glen

 

[belflan]

Glen,
looks like we could be in for another bumpy ride today with the Microsoft effect.
As far as market direction is concerned it is not easy at all is it. If you listen to CNBC you would think that all is great and we have bottomed. But is this just window dressing? If you look at the fundamental facts like GDP, retail sales, industrial output, inflation, employment you can get a resonable handle on where the economy is going. Have stocks priced in these fundamentals? Probably not, but doesn't the market discount everything? ... Where do you start ...

Jonathan

Hi Jonathan, thank you very much for your post,

can you please expand on your FA of GDP, retail sales, industrial output, inflation, employment. And how you this allows you to get a handle/veiw on where the market is going.

regards
Glen

 

[belflan]

all but one stock (FMD) down tonight. (FMD must be very weak indeed)

draw down end of day = -$1,428 (about 5% of account value $30K)

intra day draw down would have been slightly more

no worries, 1st day only

no scalping done today to try and pull some of this draw down intraday (scalping will keep for a while)

glen

result to date = -$1,912 (about 6% of account value $30k)

intra day draw down not likely to be much more than this

no worries, 2nd day only

glen

 

[belflan]

ok, so I want to be a full time trader.

What do I need to do?
__________________________________________________________________

1. The ability to read the market direction successfully.

Ok, working on this and it will take time, but happy enough with this.
__________________________________________________________________

2. Strategies that work

Ok, working on this too and shouldn’t take as along to gain these skills as compared to no.1
__________________________________________________________________


3. Stop Goal conflict

I read a book a while ago on motivation by Dr Raj Rersand (the guy of the TV). I was reading it back in the day when I wanted to be the next CEO of the company I work for. Wanted to be the next high flyer and all that. I’ve thankfully grown out of that now (I found out to become the next big thing at work all I actually needed to do, was nothing more than jam my head up the next available directors bottom, didn’t appeal to me too much) Anyway back to goal conflict in Raj’s book. This is what he says:

‘Oftentimes the reason people don’t attain a goal is not that they don’t desire the goal, it’s more that other competing goals produce goal conflict. So if you have a goal of…..’

‘Check that the goals you have set yourself are really top of your list of priorities and make sure the subsidiary goals in your life are not in conflict with the primary goals. List your hierarchy of goals and check for conflicts between key goals. Be prepared to reconcile or reduce conflict by reducing the number of goals in your life.’
______________________________________________________________________________________

I think this is reasonable advice for a wannabe trader

Over the next few months I’m going to reconcile my present day subsidiary goals, (i.e. my day to day job, my other business, rental property) with my key goal (becoming a trader)

This could hurt a bit
Glen

PS sorry about these journal type posts, just want a keep everything in the same spot

 

[brutusdog]

ok, so I want to be a full time trader.

What do I need to do?
__________________________________________________________________

1. The ability to read the market direction successfully.

Ok, working on this and it will take time, but happy enough with this.
__________________________________________________________________

2. Strategies that work

Ok, working on this too and shouldn’t take as along to gain these skills as compared to no.1
__________________________________________________________________


3. Stop Goal conflict

I read a book a while ago on motivation by Dr Raj Rersand (the guy of the TV). I was reading it back in the day when I wanted to be the next CEO of the company I work for. Wanted to be the next high flyer and all that. I’ve thankfully grown out of that now (I found out to become the next big thing at work all I actually needed to do, was nothing more than jam my head up the next available directors bottom, didn’t appeal to me too much) Anyway back to goal conflict in Raj’s book. This is what he says:

‘Oftentimes the reason people don’t attain a goal is not that they don’t desire the goal, it’s more that other competing goals produce goal conflict. So if you have a goal of…..’

‘Check that the goals you have set yourself are really top of your list of priorities and make sure the subsidiary goals in your life are not in conflict with the primary goals. List your hierarchy of goals and check for conflicts between key goals. Be prepared to reconcile or reduce conflict by reducing the number of goals in your life.’

I think this is reasonable advice for a wannabe trader

Over the next few months I’m going to reconcile my present day subsidiary goals, (i.e. my day to day job, my other business, rental property) with my key goal (becoming a trader)

This could hurt a bit
Glen

PS sorry about these journal type posts, just want a keep everything in the same spot

hi Glen,

very interesting post and also pertinent for me given that i have been giving this some thought over the course of the weekend.

the pursuit of goals is important for me also but as you say the management of these goals is as important as actually identifying them given that they change over time.

personally writing them down clearly in order of importance is a must, then allowing specific time periods for each as well. ie during the day job that has to be highest priority and trading will take a back seat.

now this for me is key. by allowing each goal a specific time period where it will gain your full attention you are able to maximize your efforts rather than dissipating your energy's by trying to cover too many at the same time......we are men after all.....1 thing at a time.

a previous tutor of mine had a term which he often wheeled out when confronted by a large or seemingly insurmountable task

"you cant eat an elephant in 1 bite"

i guess this is all part of the journey of self discovery that trading results in.

cheers aj.

 

[jdbzero]

Hi Jonathan, thank you very much for your post,

can you please expand on your FA of GDP, retail sales, industrial output, inflation, employment. And how you this allows you to get a handle/veiw on where the market is going.

regards
Glen

Hi Glen,
You are quite correct - how or even can we get a view on market direction based on economic fundamentals. Lets have a look at US GDP growth. I have taken data from the the BEA and plotted it in excel. I've also added an estimate for 1st quarter GDP of -0.8% growth. This is from Morgan Stanley and as always with this lagging data it tends to get revised (more down than up at the moment). I've smoothed it using a 4 period MA. A monthly INDU chart is plotted below.
What can we say regarding this data? Well any correlation is not obvious but where GDP growth has turned down and gone negative then the Dow has corrected (I'm not saying that GDP leads the DOW by the way). The question now, is GDP going to bounce back like it did following the early 90's recession or is going to be more pronounced like the last downturn? On the plus side is that US exports are doing well and this will help bottomline GDP. On the negative side, there is a big inventory overhang shown in latter part of 2007 GDP. House builders are still building too many houses for current market conditions for example and there were some large aircraft orders that were included in that period. Also, some research shows that rising house prices added about 1% growth to the GDP numbers during the boom. Well you can discount that straight away. The alarm bells must sound when it takes more consumer debt to raise GDP.
After the last US recession the Fed started reducing interest rates down until the real rate became negative (ie adjusted for inflation). Like most interventions it was too late, too much and for too long. These inflationary conditions lead to the housing bubble that is now the main reason behind the latest financial turbulence, and a more general asset/debt bubble (gold, junk bonds, art, wine ...). So if the Fed inflated themselves out of the last recession can they do the same again? I doubt it and if they do it just delays the eventual hangover. Just like our own ex-chancellor there is a great desire to remove the business cycle to the point where they state it does not even exist. This is political nonesence.

In conclusion:
If we agree that growth is trending down and inflation is trending up then this at the very least is not an ideal environment for equities.

Just my opinion on things in a few words. Please remember that shares prices may go up as well as down

 

[belflan]

result to date = -$1,912 (about 6% of account value $30k)

intra day draw down not likely to be much more than this

no worries, 2nd day only

glen

thanks for the input Gents,



market down .86% tonight bring the shorts with it

results to date= -$792 (about -2.6% of account value $30K)

would have been better only TMA pop up 10% after hours (dont know why???)

come on lets go positive tomorrow

Glen

 

[Grey1]

thanks for the input Gents,



market down .86% tonight bring the shorts with it

results to date= -$792 (about -2.6% of account value $30K)

would have been better only TMA pop up 10% after hours (dont know why???)

come on lets go positive tomorrow

Glen

Our portfolio is already in positive. You missed the first day which was an awesome opportuinty to take a short postion other wise you would have been in profit already .

ON top of swing positions we also intra day trade against any swing losses as a hedge .
NEWS ON TMA

(RTTNews) - Monday after the closing bell, residential mortgage lending company Thornburg Mortgage,
Inc. (TMA) said that its earnings available to common shareholders for the fourth quarter declined on
fall in interest and non-interest income.

Thornburg Mortgage's net income available to common shareholders was $44.8 million or $0.33 per share,
down from $76.8 million or $0.68 per share in the same quarter of the prior year. On average, ten analysts
surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial estimated earnings of $0.27 per share.

Net interest income for the fourth quarter fell 4% to $87.2 million from $90.7 million in the same
quarter of last year. Non-interest income plunged to $355 thousand from $17.2 million in the same quarter
of the previous year.

Provision for credit losses was $1.9 million, compared to $1.4 million in the same quarter of the
prior year. Allowance for loan losses totaled $17.6 million or 0.07% of total loans and allowance for
losses on REO properties totaled $4.2 million or 24.96% of the total REO portfolio.

The portfolio yield during the fourth quarter increased to 5.75% from 5.40% in the prior quarter.
The company's average cost of funds decreased to 5.04% in the fourth quarter from 5.26% in the prior
quarter.

During the recent quarter, the company acquired $995.4 million of new mortgage securities at an average
price of 99.61% of par and average approximate yields of 6.30% and originated $516.7 million of loans
at an average price of 101.01% of par and average anticipated yields of approximately 6.49%.

The company realized loan losses of $735 thousand during the fourth quarter and recorded $601 thousand
in write downs related to REO that it expects to sell in the future.

During the fourth quarter, Thornburg Mortgage raised net proceeds of $91.0 million through the sale
of additional common equity during the quarter at an average net price of $9.80 per share.

For the fiscal year 2007, the company's net loss available to common shareholders was $915.4 million
or $7.48 per share, compared to net income of $286.9 million or $2.58 per share in the previous year.
Eight analysts, on average, targeted a loss of $7.23 per share.

Net interest income fell to $316.3 million from $346.7 million in the earlier year. Non-interest
loss was $1.10 billion, compared to income of $50.7 million in the preceding year.

TMA closed Monday's regular trading session at $11.28, down 37 cents or 3.18%. In the extended hours
trading, the stock gained $1.47 or 13.03% to trade at $12.75.

For comments and feedback: contact [email protected]
Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved



Grey1

 

[Grey1]

Our portfolio is already in positive. You missed the first day which was an awesome opportuinty to take a short postion other wise you would have been in profit already .

ON top of swing positions we also intra day trade against any swing losses as a hedge .
NEWS ON TMA

(RTTNews) - Monday after the closing bell, residential mortgage lending company Thornburg Mortgage,
Inc. (TMA) said that its earnings available to common shareholders for the fourth quarter declined on
fall in interest and non-interest income.

Thornburg Mortgage's net income available to common shareholders was $44.8 million or $0.33 per share,
down from $76.8 million or $0.68 per share in the same quarter of the prior year. On average, ten analysts
surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial estimated earnings of $0.27 per share.

Net interest income for the fourth quarter fell 4% to $87.2 million from $90.7 million in the same
quarter of last year. Non-interest income plunged to $355 thousand from $17.2 million in the same quarter
of the previous year.

Provision for credit losses was $1.9 million, compared to $1.4 million in the same quarter of the
prior year. Allowance for loan losses totaled $17.6 million or 0.07% of total loans and allowance for
losses on REO properties totaled $4.2 million or 24.96% of the total REO portfolio.

The portfolio yield during the fourth quarter increased to 5.75% from 5.40% in the prior quarter.
The company's average cost of funds decreased to 5.04% in the fourth quarter from 5.26% in the prior
quarter.

During the recent quarter, the company acquired $995.4 million of new mortgage securities at an average
price of 99.61% of par and average approximate yields of 6.30% and originated $516.7 million of loans
at an average price of 101.01% of par and average anticipated yields of approximately 6.49%.

The company realized loan losses of $735 thousand during the fourth quarter and recorded $601 thousand
in write downs related to REO that it expects to sell in the future.

During the fourth quarter, Thornburg Mortgage raised net proceeds of $91.0 million through the sale
of additional common equity during the quarter at an average net price of $9.80 per share.

For the fiscal year 2007, the company's net loss available to common shareholders was $915.4 million
or $7.48 per share, compared to net income of $286.9 million or $2.58 per share in the previous year.
Eight analysts, on average, targeted a loss of $7.23 per share.

Net interest income fell to $316.3 million from $346.7 million in the earlier year. Non-interest
loss was $1.10 billion, compared to income of $50.7 million in the preceding year.

TMA closed Monday's regular trading session at $11.28, down 37 cents or 3.18%. In the extended hours
trading, the stock gained $1.47 or 13.03% to trade at $12.75.

For comments and feedback: contact [email protected]
Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved



Grey1

This is the target list for 50 stocks, I have compiled this list around OCT last year and some of the stocks have already met their target. II will add to this list as i get more time .

When there is more than one target ( example MBI 12,50 , 10 , 3 ) it means three levels of profit taking ,, Where these targets come from ? I really cannot go into this subject .. lets get other issues out the way before we go into fundamental analysis

Grey1

 

[Grey1]

This is the target list for 50 stocks, I have compiled this list around OCT last year and some of the stocks have already met their target. II will add to this list as i get more time .

When there is more than one target ( example MBI 12,50 , 10 , 3 ) it means three levels of profit taking ,, Where these targets come from ? I really cannot go into this subject .. lets get other issues out the way before we go into fundamental analysis

Grey1

opppss

this is the list

 

[jdbzero]

opppss

this is the list

Thank you !!!
I think I need to revisit my stock selection.

 

[Grey1]

[Another awesome day for our portfolio with market crashing down .

Belflan also joined the SKYP group and i managed to clear some of his questions. Hope it helped.


Four Intra day trades by my man Frank with near perfect entry with 4 wins which put a smile on my face because he now knows how to trade consistently and profitably .. Well done Frank

Daily MACCI on indu is yet to get to OS level and i will outline my plan if it gets there.

All in all another good day for the portfolio

Grey1

 

[belflan]

Belflan also joined the SKYP group and i managed to clear some of his questions. Hope it helped.


Grey1

what I learnt tonight is simple (i.e. no more sole searching required);

if you want to be a trader (and i do), you can become a trader, you need (two words)

Commitment

Professionalism

thats all>>>>>>>>>>> move on glen>>>>>>>>>^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


and yes it helped greatly.... talking to actual,, successful,, TRADERS!

many thanks
Glen

 

[jayjay121]

[Another awesome day for our portfolio with market crashing down .

Belflan also joined the SKYP group and i managed to clear some of his questions. Hope it helped.


Four Intra day trades by my man Frank with near perfect entry with 4 wins which put a smile on my face because he now knows how to trade consistently and profitably .. Well done Frank

Daily MACCI on indu is yet to get to OS level and i will outline my plan if it gets there.

All in all another good day for the portfolio

Grey1

well done guys, im pleased for you all, and frank i get alot of courage from your success as i know now it is possible.............but grey how about now you start helping others a little like you said, un like belfan im here all day and don't have to work, i wanna do this full time basically and have the funds right now ready, im committed no bull****......i added you on skype and you have just blanked me basically and even blocked me without no reason at all. Is there a way into your selective elite group as i beginning to think not? as i want to ditch the momentum trading as you say but no one on here is willing to help out except trader333 who is has been the most helpful person in my trading career so far, a real credit to this forum and i owe him so much i really do.

if you are not going to help out evenly then please just say so i can move on....................i feel like i lost out over the last few days as i knew the dow was coming down, but you said stay away from spreadbetting, so i did and lost out?, you tell me that momentum trading does not work so i stop doing that even though i was making $100 a day doing so, now i feel like going back to it now as you left me hanging, you have made me feel scattered..............but then you'll help out belfan, don't make sense. Bit unfair if you ask me considering i've been waiting for ever for your help...........

what you should have done imo is shown all your strategies to trader333 and got together with him from the start as he is excellent at helping out traders and even more so at mentoring.

sorry grey, your a great mentor and i can see from your webinar you do enjoy teaching but just telling you how i feel....

start a room on paltalk for all of us everyday, not just a few traders, com on whats the problem, why be so selective if your really willing to make a difference?



jason

 

[belflan]

what I learnt tonight is simple (i.e. no more sole searching required);

if you want to be a trader (and i do), you can become a trader, you need (two words)

Commitment

Professionalism

thats all>>>>>>>>>>> move on glen>>>>>>>>>^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


and yes it helped greatly.... talking to actual,, successful,, TRADERS!

many thanks
Glen

one more word Attitude

sorry almost forgot

 

[belflan]

thanks for the input Gents,



market down .86% tonight bring the shorts with it

results to date= -$792 (about -2.6% of account value $30K)

would have been better only TMA pop up 10% after hours (dont know why???)

come on lets go positive tomorrow

Glen

swiftly moving on...

again market down tonight bring shorts with it (-2.66%)

results to date = +$486

market closed around low of the day therefore, i think this means it's more likely to be a down day tomorrow. If it had of bounced back before close, bounce would have been more likely to continue tomorrow (taking market higher) i think i've got this the correct way round.

Glen

 

[vegas]

what I learnt tonight is simple (i.e. no more sole searching required);

if you want to be a trader (and i do), you can become a trader, you need (two words)

Commitment

Professionalism

thats all>>>>>>>>>>> move on glen>>>>>>>>>^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


and yes it helped greatly.... talking to actual,, successful,, TRADERS!

many thanks

Glen]


Enjoyed the chat Glen.

Market broke beautifully today for the portfolio, but, as Iraj also mentioned we also did some scalping. Iraj, trading the Dow and myself trading the DIA, each time the market pulled back, an opportunity presented.

Frank