Belflan's US stock swing trades

[belflan]

To be honest, I'm not quite sure at the moment. I'm in the process of going back over several years of market history, trying elicit some common traits.

My hypothesis is that sector rotation may be pronounced at climatic sell offs. I may be completely wrong in this.

Yahoo Industries with worst relative strength over last 5 days are Personal Computers, Health Care Plans, Drug Manufacturers, Other health industries, biotech, telecom etc

thanks for the input,

keep us posted on how your getting on

glen

 

[belflan]

Glen
I've found that some EL Radar code doesn't deal very well with the end of one day and the start of the next. To me its a TS glitch. As others have said you'll probably be ok once you get some intraday data going.
If you look for Daily OB stocks you can just Connect those (up to 50) in Globalserver to update intraday and leave the rest to update with EOD data.
(Thinks - I'm sure I had more than 60 tickers running in Radar a while back before my PC problems. Is 50 the limit or not ?)
As Evostik says, not sure you need the Diverge anyway unless you are doing something different. I don't use it but wonder anyway whether it was intended for use in the Daily timeframe ?
Glenn

hi Glenn, yes i think i'm going to go down that root

one of the guy's at hyperserver (i've no reason to doubt him) told me 50 is not the new limit for IB. this may be for new accounts, and limited transaction etc, i,ve only been with IB for a while now

thanks
glen

 

[belflan]

Hi Glen

I guess you could write a simple indicator that just tells you, for example, the percentage price change in the last X periods (X being set as an input). In the list include the indu itself, Then just sort the column by change in %. Those above are strong relative to INDU etc.

Just thinking outloud and this might be silly?

Cheers
Steve

yes, i see what you mean, the day before entering a basket short, i could just look and see what the stocks % rise/fall was on the day relative to the market % rise/fall. After all we're only looked to enter say 10 stocks

thanks
glen

 

[belflan]

yes, i see what you mean, the day before entering a basket short, i could just look and see what the stocks % rise/fall was on the day relative to the market % rise/fall. After all we're only looked to enter say 10 stocks

thanks
glen

ok, so take this one stage further, if we were looking to enter short tommorrow in a basket of stocks (which we are not, we'll wait until wed news) we would pick from the O/B list attached, however we would NOT enter FL, OVTI or PHM or any other stock that did not fall by 1.38% or more on Friday??????????? (1.38% is what the INDU fell by)

any thoughts anyone???

Glen

 

[belflan]

set up almost there,

now have all weak list, and strong list symbols and daily data!

could some one do me a favour?, and check their MACCI INDU daily and weekly i get;

weekly = -96

daily = -36.5

thanks
glen

 

[dcraig1]

Hi Glen

I guess you could write a simple indicator that just tells you, for example, the percentage price change in the last X periods (X being set as an input).

Cheers
Steve

Its called Rate of Change (ROC):

Price Rate Of Change (ROC)

 

[evostik]

Its called Rate of Change (ROC):

Price Rate Of Change (ROC)

OK - thanks

 

[Ultramarine]

set up almost there,

now have all weak list, and strong list symbols and daily data!

could some one do me a favour?, and check their MACCI INDU daily and weekly i get;

weekly = -96

daily = -36.5

thanks
glen

Looks close enough to me Glen.

Al

 

[iq200]

set up almost there,

now have all weak list, and strong list symbols and daily data!

could some one do me a favour?, and check their MACCI INDU daily and weekly i get;

weekly = -96

daily = -36.5

thanks
glen

I get -95.36 for for weekly and -36.61 for daily. Your values are fine Glen!
Cheers,
Imran

 

[belflan]

market up a few points tonight, maybe due to news coming on Wed

A few stocks on the weak list O/B on dailies and weak in relation to market (will wait until Wed Thurs before entry, see how they do)

glen

 

[belflan]

market up a few points tonight, maybe due to news coming on Wed

A few stocks on the weak list O/B on dailies and weak in relation to market (will wait until Wed Thurs before entry, see how they do)

glen

market up .73% tonight

If i had of opened shorts last night on the O/B stocks off the weak list that were showing a weak divergence to the market it would have been a poor entry.

Just goes to show if the market goes up, no matter how good the technicials or fundamental look on the single weak stocks, they are likely to go up also. (at least based these couple of days)

MARKET 1st.. STOCKS 2nd..

will keep an eye on this
glen

 

[Grey1]

market up .73% tonight

If i had of opened shorts last night on the O/B stocks off the weak list that were showing a weak divergence to the market it would have been a poor entry.

Just goes to show if the market goes up, no matter how good the technicials or fundamental look on the single weak stocks, they are likely to go up also. (at least based these couple of days)

will keep an eye on this
glen

Glen

As I said during the webminar you must trade in the direction of the market or else you are toast,, this applies in all time frames ,, hourly , daily , weekly , monthly

I also said you must not open any short position till Bernake speach is out the way which is tomorrow,,

We intra day traded yesterday with VEGAS and FIBBO to day with great wins for both of them ,,

Grey1

 

[belflan]

Glen

As I said during the webminar you must trade in the direction of the market or else you are toast,, this applies in all time frames ,, hourly , daily , weekly , monthly

I also said you must not open any short position till Bernake speach is out the way which is tomorrow,,

We intra day traded yesterday with VEGAS and FIBBO to day with great wins for both of them ,,

Grey1

totally agree, no trades open, I'm just keeping an eye on the lists.

my post above was only to prove you were and are correct!

Market 1st!
Stocks 2nd!

its a must!!!!!

thanks for the post
glen

CNBC's market drivers

MSNBC - Video Front Page

 

[belflan]

now short at these prices and positions sizes

 

[belflan]

The secrets of wealth (within the stock market)

this is more of a journal entry than anything else, so i can remember how i was thinking at this moment in time;

I could be wrong about this and I will always remain open minded. however this is my view at present;

The secret of wealth within the stock market is not technical analysis of the market or of the stock. (although it's nice to have the technicals on your side)

The secret of wealth is not the fundamental of the stocks, i.e. the weak & strong lists. as Grey has said on numerous occasions if the overall market goes up no matter how fundamentally weak the stocks are they are also likely to go up along with the market.

Therefore, the secret to wealth within the stock market must be your fundamental view of the overall market (bull or bear) (market going up, market going down)

Grey1 mentioned within the webinar that he was a bear (and with his record and experience within trading who would doubt him)

He bases this view on a number of events (housing, debt crisis etc) these issues are subjective and through his years of experience he is able to predict (with a high degree of success) the impact of such issues on the overall market (this is indeed a skill)

Therefore it must follow that no matter how competent i become at, market TA, stock FA & TA, I will fail without Grey1's view of the overall market or developing my skills of determining the markets fundamental directions

________________________________________________________________

Market 1st
1st Fundamental
2nd Technical

________________________________________________________________

Stock 2nd
1st Fundamental
2nd Technical

________________________________________________________________

Just a thought
glen

 

[vegas]

The secrets of wealth (within the stock market)

this is more of a journal entry than anything else, so i can remember how i was thinking at this moment in time;

I could be wrong about this and I will always remain open minded. however this is my view at present;

The secret of wealth within the stock market is not technical analysis of the market or of the stock. (although it's nice to have the technicals on your side)

The secret of wealth is not the fundamental of the stocks, i.e. the weak & strong lists. as Grey has said on numerous occasions if the overall market goes up no matter how fundamentally weak the stocks are they are also likely to go up along with the market.

Therefore, the secret to wealth within the stock market must be your fundamental view of the overall market (bull or bear) (market going up, market going down)

Grey1 mentioned within the webinar that he was a bear (and with his record and experience within trading who would doubt him)

He bases this view on a number of events (housing, debt crisis etc) these issues are subjective and through his years of experience he is able to predict (with a high degree of success) the impact of such issues on the overall market (this is indeed a skill)

Therefore it must follow that no matter how competent i become at, market TA, stock FA & TA, I will fail without Grey1's view of the overall market or developing my skills of determining the markets fundamental directions

________________________________________________________________

Market 1st
1st Fundamental
2nd Technical

________________________________________________________________

Stock 2nd
1st Fundamental
2nd Technical

________________________________________________________________

Just a thought
glen

This is a fine post....Glen. Food for thought, no doubt.

Cheers,
Frank.

 

[belflan]

now short at these prices and positions sizes

all but one stock (FMD) down tonight. (FMD must be very weak indeed)

draw down end of day = -$1,428 (about 5% of account value $30K)

intra day draw down would have been slightly more

no worries, 1st day only

no scalping done today to try and pull some of this draw down intraday (scalping will keep for a while)

glen

 

[belflan]

This is a fine post....Glen. Food for thought, no doubt.

Cheers,
Frank.

yes Frank, i'm starting to see the difficultly in using Grey1's strats without 1.) fully understanding them & 2.) having some guidance from his experience on the overall market direction

Just need to work through it i guess

thanks
glen

 

[vegas]

yes Frank, i'm starting to see the difficultly in using Grey1's strats without 1.) fully understanding them & 2.) having some guidance from his experience on the overall market direction

Just need to work through it i guess

thanks
glen

Hi Glen,

You're doing fine. I am also in several of your choices. No short portfolio could have survived today's action.

The good thing is that Iraj is and will be a bear for some time, so there is time to work on market direction.

Frank.

 

[belflan]

so there is time to work on market direction.

Frank.

do you guys have a framework of thought or measures (for want of a better term) for the overall market direction?

or is there just to many in feeds into the overall market? and Iraj's market experince kicks in to come up with a view?

ta
glen