could you really see 30+ points slippage on a stop loss order trading 3-4 YM contracts???????????????????????/
no intra day this week, think the platform working ok now, but will take a break and look forward to friday
I think one of the main things I'll take from the webinar will be the conviction which Iraj had in taking the 1st long position.
the gap up open was turning the 30min and 10min macci up from o/s level. Both the 30min and the 10min would have to finsh there cycle somehow, therefore it would make for a low risk long entry. (most of the $1K was main within the first hour or so)
therefore i'll be looking for direction of the higher TF more so in the future.. The more cycles running in your favour the less risky the entry.
belflan
the gap up open was turning the 30min and 10min macci up from o/s level. Both the 30min and the 10min would have to finsh there cycle somehow, therefore it would make for a low risk long entry. (most of the $1K was main within the first hour or so)
therefore i'll be looking for direction of the higher TF more so in the future.. The more cycles running in your favour the less risky the entry.
belflan
the market rallied to close after the webinar which flatten out the 60min, its not turned up just yet
the 30min cycle looks very dominate at the mo.. and is still up
hard to read for open tomorrow, I would think a flat open = the 30min cycle would have to finsh, therefore market would rise then sell off when 30min turns taking 60min with It
gap down would be very bearish if it makes the 30min turn this could mean you have the 60min 30min heading same direction and the 10min and 5min turning down from o/b levels, hmm
the 30min cycle looks very dominate at the mo.. and is still up
hard to read for open tomorrow, I would think a flat open = the 30min cycle would have to finsh, therefore market would rise then sell off when 30min turns taking 60min with It
gap down would be very bearish if it makes the 30min turn this could mean you have the 60min 30min heading same direction and the 10min and 5min turning down from o/b levels, hmm
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LuckyBucks
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A way of getting more accurate MACCI10 triggers using three moving averages
I've been experimenting with getting more accurate MACCI 10 triggers and have found the following set of rules filter out alot of false MACCI10 trades.
A way of getting more accurate MACCI10 triggers using three moving averages
The answer to all the following questions must be yes to take a trade.
1) Are the 5 period, 20 period and 200 period Moving averages on the daily chart all pointing in the same direction?
2) Are the 5 period, 20 period and 200 period MA on a 10 minute DOW chart trending in the direction of the broader market?
3) Is the MACCI 10minute overbought or oversold that we believe there is a high probability of a change in direction of the market to that of the 200, 20 and 5period MA on both the daily and 10 minute charts?
4) Are AMZN, RIMM or AAPL charts showing the same setup as the DOW then short or long AMZN, AAPL or RIMM in direction of the market.
5) Use a change in trend of the 5 period MA on the 10 minute chart for intraday stop, along with the MACCI 10 divergence. If MACCI 10 is oversold and turning up but the 5 period keeps trending down, do not close the trade until the 5 period turns up.
6) The above can be used to time a swing trade entry too.
Luckybucks
I've been experimenting with getting more accurate MACCI 10 triggers and have found the following set of rules filter out alot of false MACCI10 trades.
A way of getting more accurate MACCI10 triggers using three moving averages
The answer to all the following questions must be yes to take a trade.
1) Are the 5 period, 20 period and 200 period Moving averages on the daily chart all pointing in the same direction?
2) Are the 5 period, 20 period and 200 period MA on a 10 minute DOW chart trending in the direction of the broader market?
3) Is the MACCI 10minute overbought or oversold that we believe there is a high probability of a change in direction of the market to that of the 200, 20 and 5period MA on both the daily and 10 minute charts?
4) Are AMZN, RIMM or AAPL charts showing the same setup as the DOW then short or long AMZN, AAPL or RIMM in direction of the market.
5) Use a change in trend of the 5 period MA on the 10 minute chart for intraday stop, along with the MACCI 10 divergence. If MACCI 10 is oversold and turning up but the 5 period keeps trending down, do not close the trade until the 5 period turns up.
6) The above can be used to time a swing trade entry too.
Luckybucks
jdbzero
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Luckybucks,
We must be careful here not to be curve fitting. Filters can be dangerous in that they filter out what hasn't worked on the data set in question. We only see the winners.
A point I would make is that moving averages (discussed by better people than me on this forum) lag. A 200MA is correct 100 periods ago by definition. So if we use the direction of a MA as a filter in a trending market it will be fine but will be wrong at turning points.
For me, as a non-mathamatical sort of chap, moving averages explain themselves better when you displace them on a chart by half their length into the past. Eg displace a 200MA by 100 periods ago - looks better to me.
Where I find MAs useful is when they are matched to the length of the different dominant cycles. They can show you where to expect turning points.
Thanks, Jonnie
LuckyBucks
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The above filtering process eliminates nearly all false MACCI 10 overbought and oversold signals, and usually leads to a fast move in the direction of the market. If I was a programmer I'd test it in tradestation. It only gives a few trades a week but the ones it gives are nearly always right. A program in tradestation could show when the 200 day, 20 day and 5 day DOW and the 200 period (this is the 5 day on the daily chart), and 20 period on the 10 min are all facing the same direction. Entry would then be when the 5 period on the 10min turns in the direction of the higher time frames. The program would need to flash when the five higher time frames were aligned for a quick entry on the 5 period on the 10min chart so long as MACCI 10 is turning the right way too. I think its better to have less trades with a higher win ration than more trades with too many losers.
Has anyone else come up with any filtering methods for increasing the win loss ration on the MACCI 10?
Luckybucks
jdbzero
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I was only trying to highlight that if you are looking at the higher timeframe MA cycles for direction it may be wrong up to half the time. That may not be a great filter.
The MACCI as given by Grey1 tends to show the cycle direction in real time as it is only smoothed slightly. The higher timeframe(s) MACCI would then act as the filter where required.
jdbzero
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I've heard that too. Why 200?
Over the last 200 trading days the trend was UP/DOWN so in a 10min timeframe I am going to go LONG/SHORT. Must be more Crameronics
LuckyBucks
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Yes, the 200 MA on the daily chart is pretty much industry standard. According to Kevin Haggerty, Oliver Valez and many other well known figures, nearly all the big players know and watch the daily 200 MA. Its also a good one to watch on the 10 min chart, being the same as the 5 day moving average on the daily chart. You can't go much wrong if you always trade in the direction of the 20 and 5 period moving averages on the daily and the 200, 20 and 5 period MA's on the10 min chart and is therefore very useful when deciding which MACCI 10 signals to take. The 5 period MA on the 10 min chart will definitely keep you out of alot of bad MACCI 10 signals, because if it isn't turning up when the MACCI 10 does then the market isn't going up.
Luckybucks
Luckybucks
Actually, 200 on a daily is the most effective because it is the average of the yearly (approx) chart. As you get to smaller timeframes the effectiveness decreases. So 200 on a 5 min chart is not as powerful as the larger timeframes. I guess its a Q of psychology since as soon as a stock exceeds a 200 MA people become more excited about it and pile in more money and the stock rises even more.... and.... vice-versa.
I've heard that too. Why 200?
Over the last 200 trading days the trend was UP/DOWN so in a 10min timeframe I am going to go LONG/SHORT. Must be more Crameronics
Cross of the close above 200 SMA on the daily is something I have looked at with my screener. I can't find any edge. If anything, in a down market it may be a shorting opportunity. Of course you can add extra filters and whatever, but I have a fairly hard headed approach that demands that any filter used in stock screening should bring something to the party.
I think there are much better ways of finding momentum stocks.
A screener with decent backtesting abilities is a wonderful thing, as you quickly come to realise how few "technical setups" have any statistical edge at all.
You're probably right if you have done the analysis to prove what you say. I dont really use MA's and was spewing the method followed by lots of technicians in following the 200 average. Out of interest have you also looked at the remaining 100/50/34/20/10/5 MA's which are also popular?
No, I havn't looked at other MA periods, but my guess would be that the outcome would be much the same. I'm very skeptical about most technical "setups".
LuckyBucks
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For anyone new to moving averages who would like to know how to use them properly this is an excellent daily blog on the markets.
AlphaTrends
Luckybucks
AlphaTrends
Luckybucks
I don't know about this particular web site, but I do know that the web is full of "wannabees" running trading blogs and posting videos. The problem with much of this stuff is that there is no real evidence that it works. Posting a few (or even a lot of) charts and videos just doesn't cut it, especially in hindsight.
I am of the school that believes that most things can be backtested, even if the likes of eSignal or Tradestation are not up to the job and the skills of their users are even less up to the job. If no "interesting" statistical or historical evidence can be presented, then IMHO there is only one other test. Is the proponent demonstrably making decent returns within an acceptable risk profile over a resonable period ? Without one or the other, I am just not interested.
This may seem a little hard ar*ed, but I think you have to be. Actually if something looks a bit innovative, or I havn't seen it before, I will be a bit more prepared to spend some time on it but not for another web site offering to show how to "Learn to Trade the Market" using TA you can get out of Murphy's book.
Maybe this post is coming across a little more strongly than I intended, but in essence this sums of my attitude. Some might think it closed minded, but skeptical would be a more accurate description.