belflan's US stock intra day trades

[jdbzero]

...

Maybe this post is coming across a little more strongly than I intended, but in essence this sums of my attitude. Some might think it closed minded, but skeptical would be a more accurate description.

Indeed we must be sceptical.

I could set up 10 technical analysis blogs all saying something slightly different with charts and commentary. At the end of, say, 10 weeks I pull all the websites where the analysis was wrong and keep the website that showed perfect (by chance) analysis. I then sell you a book or a subscription and because now all you see is my winning website, you send me your hard earned cash.
A bit far fetched maybe, but it's been done before. I'm not saying this website falls into this category but we have to be sceptic.

Try writing down in English what the technical setup is. Forget equations and put it into an argument. On that blog site I saw something about divergent MACD pointing to a potential turning point in the market. Well in a nutshell that sort of means "prices in the short term are dropping at a faster rate than over the longer timeframe". Capitulation it may show, in hindsight bacause we are using lagged moving averages, but is that really of any use. What it says is - the market is weak - but we know that already without any moving average cross over system.

That for me is why most technical analysis is smoke and mirrors. It is bottom up thinking. Find a formula that works and then see what it means.

 

[LuckyBucks]

dcraig,

You said
"I am of the school that believes that most things can be backtested"
What methods have you come across that you have backtested or that have been backtested by others, that you think are worth studying? I'm always open to learning something new if theres a chance it will improve my accuracy rate with the MACCI 10 minute, and the other MACCI time frames. Right now I mainly use chart patterns on various time frames, fundamentals, moving averages, trin and the MACCI on a few different time frames.

Anyone else like to share any methods for improving the accuracy rate of the MACCI, I'd love to hear from you.

Luckybucks

I don't know about this particular web site, but I do know that the web is full of "wannabees" running trading blogs and posting videos. The problem with much of this stuff is that there is no real evidence that it works. Posting a few (or even a lot of) charts and videos just doesn't cut it, especially in hindsight.

I am of the school that believes that most things can be backtested, even if the likes of eSignal or Tradestation are not up to the job and the skills of their users are even less up to the job. If no "interesting" statistical or historical evidence can be presented, then IMHO there is only one other test. Is the proponent demonstrably making decent returns within an acceptable risk profile over a resonable period ? Without one or the other, I am just not interested.

This may seem a little hard ar*ed, but I think you have to be. Actually if something looks a bit innovative, or I havn't seen it before, I will be a bit more prepared to spend some time on it but not for another web site offering to show how to "Learn to Trade the Market" using TA you can get out of Murphy's book.

Maybe this post is coming across a little more strongly than I intended, but in essence this sums of my attitude. Some might think it closed minded, but skeptical would be a more accurate description.

 

[belflan]

Making this post as a note to myself.

Haven’t got much time to trade at the moment due to other commitments,, but took a silly short yesterday (2 lots) when the 10min macci went over bought , close at close (loss of just under $1k) Silly bugger, hurts a bit. Indu was generally Oversold from thursdays fall. risky trade.

Made me think of what Iraj said during the last webinar regarding futures and risk (and how you can limit risk better with strong\weak stocks) I guess I have to get burnt a bit before learning not to put my hand in the fire.

Will start posting regularly again soon, if all things work out with the sale of other business (taking much longer than I first thought.)

belflan

 

[belflan]

One of the perfect signs of a NEW or un skilled trader is those who take 1 trade , fully leveraged and loaded and expects to out smart the market,, these trader at best take one step forward and a step back ward,, some times even MOON WALK to BANKRUPCY.

Correct education is important in this game and you must seek education to be able to make it in trading ,, you must not fall into trap of self claimed coaches with less than zero understanding of risk .

Grey1

great quote, sums things up nicely for this thread

 

[belflan]

todays seems very much like the last webinar day

market news very bullish

hourly and half hourly overbought very quickly

wait for 10min to go oversold and hourly and half hourly to come off overbought levels

long stong stocks

 

[belflan]

todays seems very much like the last webinar day

market news very bullish

hourly and half hourly overbought very quickly

wait for 10min to go oversold and hourly and half hourly to come off overbought levels

long stong stocks

market at close

fannie & freddie news made for strong market

10min macci for good entry

belflan

 

[belflan]

oil seems to be negitively corelated with the dow recently

opec keeping up supplies, and hurricane ike fears subsiding = oil down today

nice link below shows were oil platforms are in gulf and % chance of ike hitting them.



Hurricane IKE

 

[Charlton]

oil seems to be negitively corelated with the dow recently

opec keeping up supplies, and hurricane ike fears subsiding = oil down today

nice link below shows were oil platforms are in gulf and % chance of ike hitting them.



Hurricane IKE

Belflan

Here is an article on the effect of oil prices on the stock market

Oil's Effect on the Stock Market - CallWriter's MONEY newsLETTER

There are plenty of others that can found using Google.

The overall conclusion, as you might expect, is that the maket declines with higher oil prices, but of course it is necessary to consider the sectors, as this and other articles point out.

I guess oil will be one of the catalysts that Grey1 might discuss at the September trading day.

Charlton

 

[belflan]

ok back paper trading until i get it..

was long tonight for quick scalp (didn't work out)

then short (not great set up) but art was on CNBC saying market would retest low and guest what..

won't read to much into my first few nights paper trading, as i seem to have forgotten most of what i learnt before

the last two years off my life has been the most trying (so far) for a number of reasons.. time to put this behind and get on with the task at hand.. learning to trade

market looks like its taking a dump as i write this (guest art was right)

belflan

 

[belflan]

Market very strong into close, maybe MSFT results leaked (slightly better than expected) who knows

took a long at around 18;30 tonight. stopped out on one stock let the other two run (-$600 at one stage)