Or maybe this is a clever way of milking the herd
Or maybe this is a clever way of milking the herd
running total = -$280
long portiflio pulling back tonight, not too bad tho, dow down 228points!
beflan
firewalker99
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Will you eat humble pie if they break the March lows?
Grey1
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Do you think it WILL ? if yes then when did you change view as on one of the posts on the MAIN BB you said you was not sure where the market was heading as there was enough evidence to support both BULL and BEARS CASE when market was up ..( i can give u the link if ya insist but cannot be bothered really )
Tell me,,, would you SHORT this market NOW or u still waiting for another LEVEL to be broken before you short? what would be ur short entry and your stop loss PLEASE ,,
ALL qualifed technicians ON CNBC shorted OIL and went long S&P after it broke through 1400 . UN QUALIFIED TECHNCIANS are still fighting on BB's ,,,
grey1
firewalker99
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I was merely asking a question Grey1. What I think is irrelevant, because I don't made predictions, I trade on what I see.
Personally, I only daytrade, it minizes risk and it maximizes opportunity. I like to evaluate the intermediate or longer term as well though. But any post I make about mid-term context, is purely observatory, as I don't swing trade. This doesn't change the fact that on May 9 (see post here), I already mentioned that if price broke 12700 we could see significant more downside. I also said on the 12th I would initiate a short position if that happened.
Indeed you are correct: I said I was neutral and both bull & bear cases were possible. To recapitulate, I said we were not out of the woods until we broke 13200 and that a break of 12700 signaled trouble ahead (all posted in the public dow thread). This is what trading is about: analyzing scenarios and probabilities.
Fwiw, on intraday basis, I shorted the market on the 19th after a rejection at resistance (13125) and a failure to make a new high. I have never seen so many elements of confluence (see post here) come together to make up for a nice short (all technical elements obviously). But I'm not a swing trader and closed out that position at the EOD. This doesn't change the fact that I shorted at 12668 again yesterday (if you want the live post of that I can PM it to you, because it's not on this site).
I don't watch CNBC, let alone listen to some of those "qualified technicians". I am curious however, on how you are managing your long from April 17, given that you had +500 points profit, but with the market right now at 12550 you are sitting on a loss.
Grey1
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I closed 3/4 of my porfolio last night as seen
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tec...ding-short-medium-term-grey-s-analysis-5.html
the rest to run .
I have also advised my followers to close as well and be in cash and i saw BELFLAN closed his portfolio with $6300 up as well.
Now , the next step is to pair swing trade to eliminate the market direction and i will let every one to know what stock I have taken and when
This is the list of stocks for pair trading
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Great, look forward to see you're approach to pair trading unfold.
how do you stock pick for your pair trade lists?
belflan
FW, I don't know what Grey's positions were or are, and I don't think it particularly matters. This is all about stock trading - not index trading - and critical as broad market direction is to stock trading, they are not one and the same thing.
One thing I am doing is tracking various portfolios and groups of stocks including Greys strong and weak stocks and lists generated by my own screener software. Here is a chart of an unweighted index of what I understand are Grey's strong stock list. It is clearly up since April 17, and given Grey's trading and execution skills, he could well have done better than this index.
I really do think you are missing the point.
PS, I was short Monday to Wednesday PM, but didn't make any money out of it because I cocked up the execution and stock selection. Haste makes waste.
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IMHO, the chart I posted above is a good illustration of the limitations of the "all you need is a chart - PV and S/R tell the whole story" approach. Good stock traders choose their market(s) and thereby have a potential advantage over index traders who - no matter if they are superlative technicians - take what they are given. If you choose the right stocks you give yourself an advantage and can let your winners and your portfolio run , because they beat the index. If you trade the index, you have to be spot on in your market calls - virtually all the time - otherwise you get whipsawed as shown by the DOW 17th Apr to today figures.
Furthermore, the stype of swing/position trading of stocks advocated by Grey is conducive to compounding, which only the best of the best ever achieve with SIFs.
Furthermore, the stype of swing/position trading of stocks advocated by Grey is conducive to compounding, which only the best of the best ever achieve with SIFs.
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firewalker99
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Then there's no point in discussing it, is there?
Grey1 posted he went long on April 17. If that's posted in a US indices thread, the DOW 2008 thread actually, than it means he is long the index. Any other positions are immaterial.
firewalker99
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So if you trade an index you have to be spot on, but if you trade a stock you don't have to be?
There are always stocks that beat the index, and stocks that fall behind. After all, an index is nothing more than an average of several weighted shares of different companies. Being right or wrong, has nothing to do with the instrument. As for getting whipsawed, a long from April 17 had at least +500 points in the bag on several days when the market was trading clearly above 13000. If one failed to see the reversal signals were imminent, than it's hardly the fault of the index.
Of course, if you're in this game just to beat the index, that's fine. So if at the end of the year, you lost 5% on your portfolio, but the market dropped 20%, will you be shouting "I beat the index"?
PS: before anyone says my posts don't belong here, I only asked a simple question (#627), which was replied on with another question.
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So if you trade an index you have to me spot on, but if you trade a stock you don't have to be?
As for getting whipsawed, a long from April 17 had at least +500 points in the bag on several days when the market was trading clearly above 13000. If one failed to see the reversal signals were imminent, than it's hardly the fault of the index.
Of course, if you're in this game just to beat the index, that's fine. So if at the end of the year, you lost 5% on your portfolio, but the market dropped 20%, will you be shouting "I beat the index"?
PS: before anyone says my posts don't belong here, I only asked a simple question (#627), which was replied on with another question.
No you don't have to be spot on with every stock, because of diversification - probably the only free lunch there is in the trading/investment game.
I have posted on the momentum thread I started some illustrations of stock screening techniques that may provide some edge (Grey probably doesn't agree with them but that's neither here nor there for the purpose of this discussion).
At the risk of labouring the point here is another example of 15 stocks screened on the 28 Jan. This is a pure forward test - I havn't optimised by fiddling screening parameters and backfitting to the data. Incidently this list is even better if a couple of gold miners are removed - something I would do as I do not understand gold stocks.
A skilled trader taking into account market direction, and other technical considerations could go to work on such lists of prospects and do well. It ain't that hard - buy the things when either the market index is oversold (using MACCI) or the synthetic portfolio index is oversold using TSI. The point is that choosing the right markets (stocks) is just as important as discerning index direction and there is most definately an edge to be had if one devotes the right effort to it.
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firewalker99
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True, if you can pick the right stocks at the right time and trade them instead of an index, there's a definite advantage to it. No argument there. I respect all those people who put in time and effort to filter stocks and so. I haven't said trading in index is better for that matter.
I was merely point out the following statement:
I think you'll guys need to frame this one. Because Grey1 will be laughing green, sooner rather than later...
Grey1
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So if you trade an index you have to me spot on, but if you trade a stock you don't have to be?
As for getting whipsawed, a long from April 17 had at least +500 points in the bag on several days when the market was trading clearly above 13000. If one failed to see the reversal signals were imminent, than it's hardly the fault of the index.
Of course, if you're in this game just to beat the index, that's fine. So if at the end of the year, you lost 5% on your portfolio, but the market dropped 20%, will you be shouting "I beat the index"?
PS: before anyone says my posts don't belong here, I only asked a simple question (#627), which was replied on with another question.
FW,
I donot think you fully understand the weight of Graig's argument,, This area comes under the the risk analysis theories which you have not enlighten us mortals in your approach except that " I SAID THIS I SAID THAT and LOOK MARKET WENT UP THAT MUCH OR WENT DOWN THAT MUCH ,, "
As i said to you before, we donot need Un qualified guys to lecutre us on why we did not spot the top or bottom . We donot bottom or top fish ,, There is more in this game than you realise. We really donot need advise or lecture from you ,,
I know you are trying to get some of your HONER back as you put it but MOVE ON . I asked you not to distract but you just having FUN here ,, We donot need you here . If you donot move on I will ban you and complain to Sharky to move you on ,, We came here to be away from guys like you ,, MOVE ON
You are suppose to be an ADVISOR to T2W .
I am here to have an objective and methodological means of creating wealth and you keep going on about your talent on calling the market TOP and BOTTOM , you failed last time and you will fail times and times again .
HAVE YOU EVER THOUGHT HOW NAIVE YOUR REPLIES ARE SPECIALLY TO CARIG'S POST ..
HAVE YOU EVER THOUGHT THE WHOLE WORLD IS STRUGGLING TO ANALYSE THIS MARKET BUT IT IS ALL SO CLEAR TO YOU ,,,
WHERE YOU ARE NOW WE WERE IN 1987.
I AM NOT INTERESTED .. PLEASE GO AWAY
Grey1
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FW
I just banned you but i know you can abuse your privliages as a T2W adviser and as a result I also complained to SHARKY to get ride of you ,, Please go on the main BB and put your analysis for spread betters who need you ,,,,
I really hope this is the end of you and you gone ,,
DC CRAIG ,
We need people like DCCRAIG who are objective and have the ability to argue their case clearly . To be quite honest I would love to see the end result of DC craig's findings than any pro Techncians let alone some un qualified so called technician .
Grey
I just banned you but i know you can abuse your privliages as a T2W adviser and as a result I also complained to SHARKY to get ride of you ,, Please go on the main BB and put your analysis for spread betters who need you ,,,,
I really hope this is the end of you and you gone ,,
DC CRAIG ,
We need people like DCCRAIG who are objective and have the ability to argue their case clearly . To be quite honest I would love to see the end result of DC craig's findings than any pro Techncians let alone some un qualified so called technician .
Grey
hmm, this is a bit of a shame really, why would someone hang on trying to prove someone wrong. when the person who he is trying to prove wrong, freely admits getting it wrong sometimes, and wasn't actual wrong this time round at all...
FW seems to have got a bit confused along the way (had something to prove to himself maybe)
belflan
