hi Frank, thanks for the post
I'm interested in the 'paper' 'non paper' debate. to be honest I've found paper trading to feel no different to the live trading i've done in the past (much smaller position sizes tho)
i think posting the trades live on this board has helped make it feel more live
do you feel like your time on sim/paper was a complete waste?
cheers
Glen
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hi Frank, thanks for the post
I'm interested in the 'paper' 'non paper' debate. to be honest I've found paper trading to feel no different to the live trading i've done in the past (much smaller position sizes tho)
i think posting the trades live on this board has helped make it feel more live
do you feel like your time on sim/paper was a complete waste?
cheers
Glen
Glen, you make a good point, posting the trades on the BB does/should improve the discipline aspect, no doubt and it was one of my key problems and why I got very little out of sim/paper trading. And then, we are of course, all made differently...
Cheers,
Frank.
Brillant posts and things to think about
I have been attempting to follow Iraj's intraday strategy ever since his seminar, but have found the market particularly frustraing over the month. Indeed during the seminar it wasn't behaving as desired.
In a non-news technical day it seems to work like a treat, but we seem to have very few of these of late. For that reason I found the recent posts on this thread brilliant and echo my own questions. My take on some of these posts follows:
Vegas (post 253)
The question about drawdowns and position size – I suppose the answer is related to how confident you are that your analysis/strategy is correct and also the particular market situation at the time. In recent times the more unpredictable (at least to me) nature of the market makes it more of a gamble to hold a position with such a potential drawdown. Having said that I have done so on several occasions and eventually reap the reward.
Glenn (post 256)
Yes – ever since Iraj’s seminar I have struggled to observe a well-defined cycle on the macci and it is interesting to note that Belflan, when questioned by me a week or so ago, said he was not following the intraday strategy from that seminar exactly as presented. Instead he appears to be using the 5 min macci and 1 min and concentrating less on 10min and seems to have made some good calls recently on that basis.
Rajibde (post 257
Again completely agree – I have found on many occasions over the last month that the macci fails to fully reach the overbought or oversold zone. Even more frustrating is when it appears to exit these zones only to turn around once a position has been opened and run more or less parallel . I like your have had problems with this and the only thing that I do is to watch the 5 min to see if it gives a clue or to exit the position when the 5 min appears to contradict completely the direction of my trade.
Vegas (post 258)
Obvious influential news events will indicate a non-technical day, but what kind of technical signals could be relied upon to signal that this is a non-technical day. Is it simply a lack of symmetry, a lack of the sine wave of a clear macci cycle. How early can we identify that this is a non-technical day. Should we as a group post a “barometer”
Rajibde (post 260)
Capitulation is of course a fairly obvious signal, which I remember Iraj saying should be a sign of exit. Today I noticed towards 8.30 pm that INDU itself was showing this sign. With regard to your question about the turn in the INDU and in the stock, I suppose signals to watch are the 5 min INDU as a possible sign of a turn on the 10 min. You might also consider how the ATR of the stock is now ranking against INDU in the n-minute Iraj change (having adjusted the minutes) to determine whether the stock has changed with respect to its strength or weakness compared to the market.
Brutusdog (post 271)
Agreed – Iraj’s point that he reiterates frequently is that the market, position size and risk determine strategy and not stop-loss. It clearly is a question of determining what signals clearly show that you have got it wrong. I have certainly been stung a few times recently where I hung in too long until I could not bear the pain further.
Thanks guys for making me realise that I am not the only one hitting these issues. I think we could have some interesting threads arising as we discuss how to utilise/adapt Iraj's strategies during current market circumstances. Hopefully when it eventually returns to some sort of technical normality it should be a doddle
Charlton
I have been attempting to follow Iraj's intraday strategy ever since his seminar, but have found the market particularly frustraing over the month. Indeed during the seminar it wasn't behaving as desired.
In a non-news technical day it seems to work like a treat, but we seem to have very few of these of late. For that reason I found the recent posts on this thread brilliant and echo my own questions. My take on some of these posts follows:
Vegas (post 253)
The question about drawdowns and position size – I suppose the answer is related to how confident you are that your analysis/strategy is correct and also the particular market situation at the time. In recent times the more unpredictable (at least to me) nature of the market makes it more of a gamble to hold a position with such a potential drawdown. Having said that I have done so on several occasions and eventually reap the reward.
Glenn (post 256)
Yes – ever since Iraj’s seminar I have struggled to observe a well-defined cycle on the macci and it is interesting to note that Belflan, when questioned by me a week or so ago, said he was not following the intraday strategy from that seminar exactly as presented. Instead he appears to be using the 5 min macci and 1 min and concentrating less on 10min and seems to have made some good calls recently on that basis.
Rajibde (post 257
Again completely agree – I have found on many occasions over the last month that the macci fails to fully reach the overbought or oversold zone. Even more frustrating is when it appears to exit these zones only to turn around once a position has been opened and run more or less parallel . I like your have had problems with this and the only thing that I do is to watch the 5 min to see if it gives a clue or to exit the position when the 5 min appears to contradict completely the direction of my trade.
Vegas (post 258)
Obvious influential news events will indicate a non-technical day, but what kind of technical signals could be relied upon to signal that this is a non-technical day. Is it simply a lack of symmetry, a lack of the sine wave of a clear macci cycle. How early can we identify that this is a non-technical day. Should we as a group post a “barometer”
Rajibde (post 260)
Capitulation is of course a fairly obvious signal, which I remember Iraj saying should be a sign of exit. Today I noticed towards 8.30 pm that INDU itself was showing this sign. With regard to your question about the turn in the INDU and in the stock, I suppose signals to watch are the 5 min INDU as a possible sign of a turn on the 10 min. You might also consider how the ATR of the stock is now ranking against INDU in the n-minute Iraj change (having adjusted the minutes) to determine whether the stock has changed with respect to its strength or weakness compared to the market.
Brutusdog (post 271)
Agreed – Iraj’s point that he reiterates frequently is that the market, position size and risk determine strategy and not stop-loss. It clearly is a question of determining what signals clearly show that you have got it wrong. I have certainly been stung a few times recently where I hung in too long until I could not bear the pain further.
Thanks guys for making me realise that I am not the only one hitting these issues. I think we could have some interesting threads arising as we discuss how to utilise/adapt Iraj's strategies during current market circumstances. Hopefully when it eventually returns to some sort of technical normality it should be a doddle
Charlton
hi Charlton
thanks for taking the time to make this post,
The only thing I'm not using that was used at the seminar is the N minuite change.
Although it may not look like it from some of my charts posted, I'm always trying to trade off and read the 10min indu MACCI, any entries off the 5min is only an attempt to read the 10min early. Both Iraj and Frank say the 10min is the key.
Just want to clear this up. (any of my entries which do not have the 10min on my side or at previous turn levels, have been mistakes on my part)
one other thing I beleive is that the reading of the market is a very subjective thing (and experince is required, lots of screen watching, CNBC watching/listening to, and time, I have a long way to go!)
cheers
Glen
brutusdog
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My take on this is that it is essential to find the dominant cycle and this changes. I know the 10min is the key by definition.I have read the posts by Iraj on cycles and trends and this is the driving force to the markets. The fact that those on this bb are experiancing this at the moment is of no suprise as the struggle on the dow in the higher timeframes unfolds.I do however see some excellent opportunitys on the intradays but there is much to be aware of.
profit on aapl trade =
$384
would have quite liked a spike down to exit aapl but didn't get it (rimm spiked down well)
reason for exit 10min macci o/s and at previous turn levels, 5min already turned
market very weak overall tonight, therefore no longs
$384
would have quite liked a spike down to exit aapl but didn't get it (rimm spiked down well)
reason for exit 10min macci o/s and at previous turn levels, 5min already turned
market very weak overall tonight, therefore no longs
