Advanced Structured Forex Trading
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7thSignalTrader
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echelon4x said:
Well, HI! LOL! Good to see you.
A very easy way (almost like stealing, but legal and completely moral!) of increasing accuracy. And it really goes back my answer given to Chuck about Omega/DAPD/Magnitude. I really all depends on what you are trying to accomplish as a trader. Trying to break the bank each day? Ok, then develop a system for doing that a high percentage of the time. Trying to fund future business projects and build your own Venture Capital LLC? Find, build system that does that a high percentage of the time. Bottom line, frequency of successful strikes on a specified target that propels forward whatever personal financial goals you have, is the ONLY requirement for you to fulfill as a trader. As long as you are making progress towards “your” goals, nothing else matters. You are not being judged on any other standard than that which you established in your future goals selection process.
As long as the Fib numbers don’t massively exceed or massively under-shoot Omega within the number of bars that you have selected (you know my standard is 21 bars) then I don’t see any problem whatsoever in using conventional TA tools to confirm, support or augment TCD based tools, or in helping you better measure EH/EL targets.
My Daily Targets are really complex in their logic and I could not get into any of that here anyway. They are dynamic and very much a custom blend that only make sense inside this model and using the code that belongs to the development platform that I’ve selected. So, there is no external point of reference that would help one understand how this system established its targets – a really difficult thing to get into here.
What you can do, is work on the synergy between daily, weekly and monthly TCDs. All of the targeting that use has its basis somewhere in the concept of the TCD. Now, you already know that I use other, more advanced TCDs that I have not discussed here, but the core 30 plus using the same for daily, weekly and monthly bars of data, will help to give you better targeting results. If adding Fibs helps in this regard, then by all means, use them!
Hope this helps!
7thSignalTrader
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TheBramble said:
Yeah, one thing is for certain - I actually trade the markets. So, I don't have the kind of time required to post over 3,000+ times on any board, but I don't knock those that do! 😆
Stay out of the jungle and try not to get eaten by a Lion. 😱 LOL! Of course, you know what they say about the Lion in the jungle. The call him the "King". But, we all know the 10,000lb Elephant is truly the King of the Jungle. 😉
7thSignalTrader
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Brabed said:
I'm on the Golf course again Friday, so I won't be able to make that one, but I'll try to shoot by and drop in on some Vyew sessions with you guys in the future.
7thSignalTrader
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im1vestr said:
Well, you know I actually like certain kinds of "noise". To me, there is nothing like the refreshing sound of tubines and the smell of jet fuel at dawn. There's nothing like it! A real warm and fuzzy for me. 😉
But, this other kind of noise is more like a bug flying in your ear - a real pest. I agree.
I'm sure AZ is warming up right about now. Very familiar with Sky Harbor. Everyone seems to own a Cadillac in Phoenix, Man what's the deal with that! Every time I’m in Phoenix, it seems like Cadi Heaven out there – what gives?
Dave, the 30 base indicators is something that you are going to have to ask Chuck, or Echelon4 about. These guys have formed a private group and have decided that they were going to do some study and research on some of the concepts that I’ve been sharing over the years. What I’ve given to them is not rocket science, but it does need to be explained and you will have to use a spreadsheet (Excel) in order to see these indicators or understand them in detail. These guys make the decisions about their group.
They’ve made me a moderator, but I don’t moderate the group, I merely make suggestions that I think are good for the group as a whole. These guys are in control and you will really need to speak with them (they are good people) about getting into that group. Most of these guys are serious about becoming better traders and I’ve suggested to them that they ONLY allow serious minded people that can help them accelerate the process. So, that means going out and brining people in that have the ability to think outside the box. Any Excel skills (the more the better) would be appreciated by them I am sure. But, ultimately it is not my call.
I’m in the process of shifting into other modes and am only here now because I like doing my change-testing in public forums as it provides a certain kind of psychological leverage that works for me. Public trades journals force you to wait until the end of every session before going and tinkering with something again. My tweaks on the system have become very minimal, but any tweak I make needs to be flushed out and I like doing that in public. I’ve mentioned this several times before on this forum.
Now, what’s up with those Cadi’s in AZ! 😎
7thSignalTrader said:
No probs, just thought I'd ask. There are two items that have been on my mind a lot lately: 1) The targets, which you have touched on here with Chuck and Ech and 2) LocBind. I don't know how much you can tell me here, but where would I start in coming up with something similar to your LocBindVar? Where does it originate? You seem to say that once magnitude and direction are developed then timing comes on its own, but I think we're missing something, so I'm just hoping for an @@s kick in the right direction. Thanks a lot.
Brabed
7thSignalTrader said:
I don't know where you hang out when you come to AZ, but I don't see very many Caddy's unless you're talking about the Escalades and then, yes, you've got a point. Kind of silly if you ask me, since you can buy the same truck (Chevy Tahoe) for about $20,000 less (if you own a Escalade, I apologize in advance for the slight), but I digress. I was surprised to see that Dave is from Phoenix too.
Dave, what part of Phoenix? I live in Scottsdale.
7thSignalTrader said:
7th: You must hang around south Scottsdale. The BMW and other High end autos are all over North Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. What I see all over PX now is the HUMMERs. They are all over the place. They sure make EXXON happy. 😀 .
Thanks for the info I will ask Chuck, or Echelon4 what I have to do join in the "club". Maybe they will let me in to silently follow until I am able to add info or be productive and an assist them.
Thanks Dave
Brabed said:
Northwest Valley, 67th Ave and Happy Valley area. One block from the mountain preserve. Coyotes run down the street and we get the desert smell when it rains. (Like it rains here alot 🙂 ) My office is in Tempe. Don't get there much anymore, I am a construction manager and am up north most of the time building a prison for the Halaupi Indian Reservation. Your federal tax dollars at work.
Brabed I notice you are part of the club that work together trying to improve your trading. Maybe we can hook up and we could visit then you could recommend rather or not I would be a candidate to join. If yor not I apologize for assuming. Thanks in advance.
Dave
7thSignalTrader
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Brabed said:
Location Binding principle is easy. In an online forum, it is too easy to misplace a post where something was already given, this is one of those 2nd Generation Indicators that I've been sharing for a long, long time - maybe you missed the "crux" of the matter a while back ago. So, here goes.
Not rocket science and was discovered by me during the work on the 2nd Gen system several years ago. Location Binding rule is too easy and once I explain it, you will have one of those "ahaaaa" moments.
LocBind = FIFO (First In First Out): Location Binding Variable or LocBindVar inside the system.
It refers to the First Trajectory “In” being the First Trajectory “Out”. If the Short TCD was set in the previous session first, the LocBind simply says that the Short TCD of the next session should be the first one to terminate, leaving the Long TCD to finish last because it was the last one to set in the previous session. That’s it! First In – First Out. Last In – Last Out. Use any 1 hour chart to see this work.
Find any sustained horizontal market (one inside a channel with TCD parity) and LocBind will drive price movement to a very high degree of the time. You will always be able to visually look back at any 1 hour chart and graphically “see” what the LocBind for the next session will be provided that your pair is running inside channel.
Thus, LocBind itself has been converted into a mathematical variable inside this system and I have also blended a LocBind cluster of indicators taken from each bar of data the system tracks: daily, weekly and monthly. Therefore, there are three local LocBindVars in the system and one global LocBindVar that combines all three together. LocBind is an old and very simple, yet high effective concept that I noticed occurring in the raw data many years ago.
Of course, I now have several LocBindVar modifiers to assist when the channel is not flat and perfectly horizontal. A price channel is always present regardless of whether or not the trend is down, up or horizontal. The key, is I finding other indicators that will project when a horizontal channel is on the horizon and/or when the channel is vertical UP or vertical DOWN. Of course, that is the 5th Generation of LocBind that I cannot disclose in anyway, shape or form.
But, at least you now know what took me some research to find out! 🙂
(should be one of those: ahaaaaa now why did I not thnik of that first, moments!) :idea:
(pic of baseline LocBindVar Cluster in center of Engine screen shot)
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Brabed said:
LOL! I would not own an Escalade. Now, I'm not slighting any Escalade owners out there so don't send me email - LOL! But, I'm like you on this one: I just don't get thing.
I'm a speed and performance kind of guy. C6 Z06, Saleen S7 Porshe Carrera GT, Viper RT10, Ferarri ENZO, Mclaren F1 and the very lovely Maserati MC-12.
All of these are on my future list of toys with the exception of the Carerra GT and the C6 Z06. - I've already taken delivery of those two. 😉 I really like the Touareg, too - it does a fine job as a daily driver.
7thSignalTrader said:
OK, but if you go with the Enzo, stay away from poles on the PCH at 150+mph. Carbon fiber likes to shatter at that speed. That's quite a list of desirables. I would be quite satisfied with a nice new 911 Turbo or a full stable of collectable Fox Bodied Mustangs (something about those fox bodies that I never got over), like the more rare Saleens, Predators, and SVO's.
7thSignalTrader
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Brabed said:
I was actually thinking of somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 mph, but I think you go directly to jail at those speeds. 😛
The Man knows his cars! I used to be a Stang Fan myself for years. I fell out of love for a few years there, but I like what they’ve done with the new bodywork on the 06’s. I’ve seen some around these parts pretty well done on a custom after-market level and they look real good.
My Wife likes her 911. She's got the 05 Cabriolet. She never liked Porsche until I got mine. She did not want all the power of the Carrera GT, however. :cheesy: I drove Her Cab a couple of times now and I think you will like it very much!
The new Noble M15 coming out soon looks great but the performance numbers don't add-up. The Z06 can out run that thing and for a fraction of the cost! 😱
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4/20/06 to 4/21/06 Trade Update and Notes:
Ok – so the deal on this one is this. The system is basically in a state of transition at this point and is not pointing in any short term direction with any real strength. It did strike its Initial Move Target and then immediately backed off like a well trained dog for a solid 15 pips. I released that Limit order because the Day Trade profile is not “On” this session thus far. Remember, this is a dynamic, real-time trading system so the Day Trade signal can turn “On” at a later time, or it can remain “Off” and in “Waiting” mode for the entire session.
So, essentially with the Day Trade signal “Off” and the Initial Move target having been struck already, the Swing Trade signal in “Delta” (meaning the underlying real-time swing signal has reversed) and both the IM and Day opposing each other (meaning one is Long and the other is Short) – we basically have a genuine Mixed Signal for this session which I like to see the system do on a rare occasion when it cannot figure things out in the short-term.
I’ve been tracking these rare occurrences when the Day Trade signal is too weak (below at least 60% probability) to come “On” and there was an Initial Move trade that was “On” at the start of the session, to find out which one prevails in the end. So, there is no clear data one way or the other – could go long, could continue short. The overall long-term projection is short because of the Swing Trade signal change but that too is now in a “Delta” state.
No need to force any trade beyond that which has been clearly projected by the system as there will always be another day to trade. So, I will close out the IM position manually, take the few scrap pips currently on the table and consider my trading work week done. Next Dashboard scheduled for 4/23/06 to 4/24/06, or 4/24/06 to 4/25/06, depending whether or not I start trading Sunday evening or Monday morning.
Have a great weekend! I’ll get back to Q&A next week if there are any pending questions.
Ok – so the deal on this one is this. The system is basically in a state of transition at this point and is not pointing in any short term direction with any real strength. It did strike its Initial Move Target and then immediately backed off like a well trained dog for a solid 15 pips. I released that Limit order because the Day Trade profile is not “On” this session thus far. Remember, this is a dynamic, real-time trading system so the Day Trade signal can turn “On” at a later time, or it can remain “Off” and in “Waiting” mode for the entire session.
So, essentially with the Day Trade signal “Off” and the Initial Move target having been struck already, the Swing Trade signal in “Delta” (meaning the underlying real-time swing signal has reversed) and both the IM and Day opposing each other (meaning one is Long and the other is Short) – we basically have a genuine Mixed Signal for this session which I like to see the system do on a rare occasion when it cannot figure things out in the short-term.
I’ve been tracking these rare occurrences when the Day Trade signal is too weak (below at least 60% probability) to come “On” and there was an Initial Move trade that was “On” at the start of the session, to find out which one prevails in the end. So, there is no clear data one way or the other – could go long, could continue short. The overall long-term projection is short because of the Swing Trade signal change but that too is now in a “Delta” state.
No need to force any trade beyond that which has been clearly projected by the system as there will always be another day to trade. So, I will close out the IM position manually, take the few scrap pips currently on the table and consider my trading work week done. Next Dashboard scheduled for 4/23/06 to 4/24/06, or 4/24/06 to 4/25/06, depending whether or not I start trading Sunday evening or Monday morning.
Have a great weekend! I’ll get back to Q&A next week if there are any pending questions.
Hi 7th,
Thanks for your advice - and good point about Omega - which I'll keep in mind when researching into this stuff.
Good point too on pip counts - small leverage and large pip counts will yield the same returns as large leverage and small pip counts.
I've found in my trading that 50 pips daily is about the limit for reasonable accuracy with EUR/USD, though I need to be very confident of direction (and the TCDs over different time frames really help there). Gunning for smaller pips e.g. 10 or 20 is much easier and more accurate because there are several opportunities which normally present themselves over the course of a trading day in both directions - hence provided my stops are at a "sensible" level e.g. 50-60 pips, to cover moves in the opposite direction this seems to work well.
Of course the money management advocates will say that this is crazy risking 50 pips to gain 20, however if you can do that 90%+ of the time it all adds up to a good return (as you well know 🙂 ).
Cheers
Mike
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hmmmm. Interesting thread. . .
Well. . .
I have been invited by Echelon to read this thread and I must say . . . . this is my kind of thinking!!!
Very impressed with this line of thinking. . . however. . . having a little difficulty understanding the difference between your long term and short term plays. . . I guess I'll just have to continue staring! 😱
Could you provide a newbie as myself with a little bit more of an understanding as to what the general layout means 7th??? I want to make sure we're on the same page. . . .or at least to a post number or thread page where it was already discussed. Read pretty much this whole thread but I might have missed some things. . . .
Kendog23
Well. . .
I have been invited by Echelon to read this thread and I must say . . . . this is my kind of thinking!!!
Very impressed with this line of thinking. . . however. . . having a little difficulty understanding the difference between your long term and short term plays. . . I guess I'll just have to continue staring! 😱
Could you provide a newbie as myself with a little bit more of an understanding as to what the general layout means 7th??? I want to make sure we're on the same page. . . .or at least to a post number or thread page where it was already discussed. Read pretty much this whole thread but I might have missed some things. . . .
Kendog23
7thSignalTrader
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4/23/06 to 4/28/06
As stated previously, my time for these kinds of things is rapidly running out due to other projects requiring more time as I progress along my path. So, I will be taking this week off and applying the Swing Trade Profile to this week’s activity in this journal. This will be my first Production run Swing Trade with many sample Swings in the distant background.
As an extra side-note:
System is currently calculating a 35% Up-Channel established by the EURUSD which took approximately 5.5 months to establish from late last year. System's very long range ceiling is now $1.2744 with a floor of $1.1855.
Since December of last year, this super long range ceiling as move from $1.2305 up to this new level of $1.2744, which is a 439 pip increase in the ceiling in the last 5 months. This system was not designed as a long range bomber, but this year, it has proven itself to be a very good "Position Trading" guide for hold periods in excess of 3 months. This current ceiling is projected at 1 to 9 months out.
I'll post the results of this week's Swing Trade Profile on Friday EOD.
As stated previously, my time for these kinds of things is rapidly running out due to other projects requiring more time as I progress along my path. So, I will be taking this week off and applying the Swing Trade Profile to this week’s activity in this journal. This will be my first Production run Swing Trade with many sample Swings in the distant background.
As an extra side-note:
System is currently calculating a 35% Up-Channel established by the EURUSD which took approximately 5.5 months to establish from late last year. System's very long range ceiling is now $1.2744 with a floor of $1.1855.
Since December of last year, this super long range ceiling as move from $1.2305 up to this new level of $1.2744, which is a 439 pip increase in the ceiling in the last 5 months. This system was not designed as a long range bomber, but this year, it has proven itself to be a very good "Position Trading" guide for hold periods in excess of 3 months. This current ceiling is projected at 1 to 9 months out.
I'll post the results of this week's Swing Trade Profile on Friday EOD.
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4/23/06 to 4/28/06 Swing Trade Update & Observations
Begin Update:
System showing that this session is the first day of the swing week for a possible strong pivot to the Short side. If there is a failure so sustain the pivot on this session to the down-side, that could be a pre-cursor to a longer Swing period extending (possibly) into next week for a 5 to 10 day Swing hold. That's my educated guess on what the system will signal at the end of this session. No need for a Dashboard update as the Swing Trade profile is always initiated on the first trading day of every week.
Asian Currencies, in an upswing stemming from last session has placed an upward bias on the USD strongly across the board and stalled the best possible Monday move. Monday's are typically good "moving days" for Swing Trade profiles in this system as they typically hold some of the biggest moves - that did not happen this Monday, so I expect the first "moving day", to be this Tuesday. (those who play golf understand the moving day reference).
There are typically two very significant days for Swing Trade profiles in this system (moving days): Monday and Thursday. Swing Trade profiles historically have some of their biggest moving days on these days of the week. That pattern has been disrupted this week. The uptrend channel projected by the system over the past 24 days, is now nearing the 40-degree mark which is one of the mile-stone confirmations for a long-term up-trend in this system. This up-trend began at $1.1640 and has never looked back since late last year, 2005. It is this 40-degree up-trend from flat/horizontal that is causing the congestion or stalling action on this week’s Short Swing Trade profile.
Up-channel has pushed the Short Swing Target to $1.2222 which is up from the first Dashboard indication. Either there will be magnificent break-out to the short side this week, or this Swing Trade will sputter and stall inside the Daily Channel which has now formed very nicely for Day Trading purposes and smaller pip expectations. The news due out this week comes from Japan, Europe and the U.S. and seems to project a mixed batch of market moving vectors. However, the progressing Asian currencies against the USD do not help the directional projection of this Swing Trade profile and could present additional resistance against the EUR moving to the downside this week.
Probability for extending Swing from 5 to 10 days: Moderate to High
End Update:
Begin Update:
System showing that this session is the first day of the swing week for a possible strong pivot to the Short side. If there is a failure so sustain the pivot on this session to the down-side, that could be a pre-cursor to a longer Swing period extending (possibly) into next week for a 5 to 10 day Swing hold. That's my educated guess on what the system will signal at the end of this session. No need for a Dashboard update as the Swing Trade profile is always initiated on the first trading day of every week.
Asian Currencies, in an upswing stemming from last session has placed an upward bias on the USD strongly across the board and stalled the best possible Monday move. Monday's are typically good "moving days" for Swing Trade profiles in this system as they typically hold some of the biggest moves - that did not happen this Monday, so I expect the first "moving day", to be this Tuesday. (those who play golf understand the moving day reference).
There are typically two very significant days for Swing Trade profiles in this system (moving days): Monday and Thursday. Swing Trade profiles historically have some of their biggest moving days on these days of the week. That pattern has been disrupted this week. The uptrend channel projected by the system over the past 24 days, is now nearing the 40-degree mark which is one of the mile-stone confirmations for a long-term up-trend in this system. This up-trend began at $1.1640 and has never looked back since late last year, 2005. It is this 40-degree up-trend from flat/horizontal that is causing the congestion or stalling action on this week’s Short Swing Trade profile.
Up-channel has pushed the Short Swing Target to $1.2222 which is up from the first Dashboard indication. Either there will be magnificent break-out to the short side this week, or this Swing Trade will sputter and stall inside the Daily Channel which has now formed very nicely for Day Trading purposes and smaller pip expectations. The news due out this week comes from Japan, Europe and the U.S. and seems to project a mixed batch of market moving vectors. However, the progressing Asian currencies against the USD do not help the directional projection of this Swing Trade profile and could present additional resistance against the EUR moving to the downside this week.
Probability for extending Swing from 5 to 10 days: Moderate to High
End Update:
