YM journal

[clylbw]

Hi frugi, SOCRATES,

About the last part of a trading day. I also find the activities between 15:30 and 16:15 odd and sometimes confusing. I wonder what is going on during that time? Is it people, including the big boys, getting into positions for tomorrow, or is it people getting ready for the after market?

Many thanks indeed.

 

[SOCRATES]

Hi frugi, SOCRATES,

About the last part of a trading day. I also find the activities between 15:30 and 16:15 odd and sometimes confusing. I wonder what is going on during that time? Is it people, including the big boys, getting into positions for tomorrow, or is it people getting ready for the after market?

Many thanks indeed.

No, it is nothing of the sort. It is just that in every market the majority of the business that has proirity, including orders hanging over from overnight are executed in the first couple of hours after the open and then everything settles down. This is the effect of the American Exchanges experiencing this very anomaly, and the knock on effect on all the other US, Canadian, Latin American and European Markets.

 

[frugi]

Socrates,

Do you mean that another market opens in the last hour or so of US trading, thus causing some anomalous movements? [or perhaps a GMT/EST confusion?]

I believe that there is increased hedge fund activity after 20:30 GMT and market maker squaring of positions. Retail positions that cause margin calls are often liquidated at 20:45. institutional traders will be looking for places to close large positions that they don't want to carry overnight. Behind the scenes, covert operations too I expect. Not a playing field on which I wish to strike the ball, anyway, as it were

 

[SOCRATES]

Well, yes, there is always something going on 24 hours a day. As a consequece of this and nowadays with fast connections and electronic execution, the smart money is able to move around quickly from market to market at the touch of buttons, This is why arbitrage (buying in one exchange and selling in another or selling in one exchage and buying in another) nowadays is so tricky. When I was on the floor many years ago it was done with two telephones in the dealing box. Each firm had an arbitrage department, that had a team, that specialised in trading anomalies, not only price driven by supply~ demand but also because of exchange rates, quite a ball game....Now it is all different but faster, much much faster, so that the ball is a blur, like a cricket ball hurtling towards you if you are the batsman, <g>.

 

[SOCRATES]

Re: My post 342, above. I am sorry, I omitted South Africa, which is included in same timeframe for the above.
Very important for Gold Mining Stocks and so on, because there the heavyweights there are really heavy too, very many very well established Blue Chip Stocks with a huge institutional and private international following.

 

[TheBramble]

Do you mean that another market opens in the last hour or so of US trading, thus causing some anomalous movements? [or perhaps a GMT/EST confusion?]

I seem to remember Bonds close an hour before the main market. Be good to get a confirmation on that.

 

[SOCRATES]

45 minutes.

 

[TheBramble]

45 minutes.

Thanks for the confirmation/correction.

Do you also happen to know under what circumstances money does and does not flow into the open market from Bond traders?

 

[SOCRATES]

Why do you need to know that ?

 

[ChartMan]

So he can fill his wheelbarrow.....

 

[tradesmart]

So he can fill his wheelbarrow.....

And add to his shedload no doubt......

See, I told y'all it'd go for that 61.8% fib retrace to 680 - and there we are.....

Regards, Mystic Meg

 

[twiggytwo]

Hi Frugi, the Dow looks to me to run up until the 9th or 10th of Feb ( 12 to 13 days )I think the top may be 10,862
all the very best with your trading ,this is just my analysis not advice. best regards

 

[frugi]

Winkle the boodle from its burrow into Bramble's barrow

+26 from one. Tweezer bottom near LOD following measured move from bear flag nestling betwixt two 25 point moves. Marginal TRIN/Tick PDs on the bottom too.
Spent Friday trying to see if market depth had anything to tell me but clearly I wasn't listening attentively enough, in fact I was probably in the wrong room altogether. But I did notice that it might be useful to take entries and exits one point away from where size is sat.

e.g the bid column could look like this

10590 45
10589 32
10588 24
10587 155
10586 33

If I was short in a falling market I might look to bid at 10588, not 587 or below as the size at 587 will be ahead of me. This might be utterly mistaken but I shall continue to monitor this (though to be honest I'm fast approaching information overload as it is!)

PS Nice one Mystic Daphne and thanks twiggy

 

[frugi]

Like running slicks in winter...

No traction

-7 from three. Missed a nice climax bottom over lunch too. Poor. Still my 10 share lot in Google did okay

 

[tradesmart]

Still my 10 share lot in Google did okay

That’s a bit extravagant Fruigi – that’s $1985.20’s worth of shares at current levels…….

Could be worth a bit more after tomorrows' googly presentation……!

 

[frugi]

Could be worth a bit more after tomorrows' googly presentation……!

That's good cause I wouldn't want to spook the market with my line of supply when I start scaling out

[Actually I sold them :?: ]

 

[clylbw]

What a beginning we have had today for the lunar new year. :cheesy:

BTW, frugi, I think there was similar information in volume & DOM yesterday afternoon hinting at this morning's movements. Anyway, I am taking tonight off; happy trading for those of you who are staying.

And, in the year of the rooster, wish all of you every prosperity and success in trading.

 

[tradesmart]

Originally Posted by tradestomato

tradespomodoro please.......!!!!

 

[SOCRATES]

What a beginning we have had today for the lunar new year. :cheesy:

BTW, frugi, I think there was similar information in volume & DOM yesterday afternoon hinting this morning's movements. Anyway, I am taking tonight off; happy trading for those of you who are staying.

And, in the year of rooster, wish all of you every prosperity and success in trading.

May I join you in wishing all fellow roosters a very happy, healthy, and successful New Year too.

<GG> = Gwiloo Grin !

 

[frugi]

Cheesy gwailow

Thanks folks. All the best to the xiao ji indeed

+15 from 2. Entered on and after the morning's 3pk PD. Sadly the triangle upside breakout came to nothing. Not surprising given the long hourly channel break I suppose, so I should have grabbed a few more points around 705 when I had the chance, but left stop on 2nd contract at b/e and went for an enormous curry instead. D'oh.