Watch HowardCohodas Trade Index Options Credit Spreads

[Martinghoul]

I'm hoping for a retrace as I've been teetotal for ages but on the face of it I think I'm just getting older, fatter and having less fun.

 

[HowardCohodas]

13 JAN 2011 Trading Summary

13 JAN 2011 Trading Summary

Iron Condor #30
Today was the last day of trading for the NDX weekly.

Spread #76 was showing a 30% probability of touching so it was closed to avoid market gap risk. It yielded 78% of its potential for a money at risk yield of 2.7%.

Spread #75 was allowed to expire for a money at risk yield of 7.3%

Yield as an Iron Condor is 10.4% of money at risk in four days.

Iron Condor #15
Spread #74 was closed after four days with 82% of its potential profit.

The Iron Condor was reestablished by adding contracts to spread #78. The credit received was adjusted to reflect the different amount of credit for the added contracts.

The first spread in this Iron Condor was entered on 11/19/10. The yield as an Iron Condor is now at 46.7% excluding commissions.

 

[TheBramble]

He did

That you didn't address the other issue I raised shows you have (in the intervening 4 years) at least picked up on when it is best to keep your mouth shut.

You should try it more often. It suits you.

 

[meanreversion]

I reckon I'm hovering around 120 these days.

Does knowing the difference between "lose" and "loose" put a floor on my IQ of 110 or so? Otherwise I'm heading towards double digits.

 

[arabianights]

breasts

 

[TheBramble]

breasts

Have you relocated to Malta?

 

[Pazienza]

No clue, but hardly any of the challenges have stood up under push back.

I just hope these strange delusions are not sincere. It would be annoying to have to feel sorry for him.

 

[Pazienza]

breasts

tldr.

 

[DionysusToast]

Which of the skills I listed would you recommend I abandon and why?

I don't think you abandon any skills. Your skills aren't the issue. The problem is the issue.

As it is, your hypothesis is that the market will regularly give you a 'relatively' risk-free 10% a month without you needing to have any understanding of the markets or any bias as to how those markets will move.

In the end, you'll need to find a niche to make it long term and that will probably mean being biased on way or the other. I've yet to see a trader that doesn't take a position based on what he thinks/calculates will occur based on how the markets operate.

 

[HowardCohodas]

I don't think you abandon any skills. Your skills aren't the issue. The problem is the issue.

As it is, your hypothesis is that the market will regularly give you a 'relatively' risk-free 10% a month without you needing to have any understanding of the markets or any bias as to how those markets will move.

In the end, you'll need to find a niche to make it long term and that will probably mean being biased on way or the other. I've yet to see a trader that doesn't take a position based on what he thinks/calculates will occur based on how the markets operate.

We'll see.

 

[DionysusToast]

It seems the impass is because of the following:

- anything HC believes is true until proven otherwise.
- anything anyone else believes is false until they prove it to be true on terms that HC accepts
- HC will only explain something once, regardless of any confusions raised
- HC will not accept other people's explanations until they frame it in terms he understands

Is this about right?

 

[HowardCohodas]

It seems the impass is because of the following:

- anything HC believes is true until proven otherwise.
- anything anyone else believes is false until they prove it to be true on terms that HC accepts
- HC will only explain something once, regardless of any confusions raised
- HC will not accept other people's explanations until they frame it in terms he understands

Is this about right?

Although counterexamples on some of these observations are ubiquitous, I shall not disturb your beliefs with any facts as repetitions go unnoticed by you.

 

[HowardCohodas]

14 JAN 2010 Trading Plan

14 JAN 2010 Trading Plan

The Dashboard above informs me as follows:
Opportunity - Takeoffs are optional
Spread #61 is unpaired. Opportunity to form an Iron Condor.

Spread #50, #77, #69 and #61 at more than 80% of capped profit. This is indicated by the cell in the Spread P/L column highlighted in yellow. Opportunity to roll.

Jeopardy - Landings are mandatory
None

Spread #63 and spread #72 show slightly negative return with 34 days until expiration. No action required.

New Opportunity
Yesterday I noted that weeklies would be available. Not correct for the week that the monthlies expire.

Patience will be rewarded.

 

[UgoDadeo]

Howard,

I understood your system tended to purchase the spreads about 60 days out. I noticed you do not have any spreads in March. Have you shortened your strategy for a reason?


As the indexes have trended higher recently, I also noted the trades you mentioned (#72 and #63) passing the 20% PoT mark. Yet you said you should take no action at this time. I understood at 20% PoT the position should be closed. What's the thinking?

 

[meanreversion]

It seems the impass is because of the following:

- anything HC believes is true until proven otherwise.
- anything anyone else believes is false until they prove it to be true on terms that HC accepts
- HC will only explain something once, regardless of any confusions raised
- HC will not accept other people's explanations until they frame it in terms he understands

Is this about right?

LOL

funny post, bang on although to give him credit, he is fairly patient about explaining things in his terms more than once.

what's the Latin term for HC's logic process, reducto ad absurdum? Reducto ad boredum?

 

[HowardCohodas]

lol

funny post, bang on although to give him credit, he is fairly patient about explaining things in his terms more than once.

What's the latin term for hc's logic process, reducto ad absurdum? reducto ad boredum?

ROTFLMAO

Reducto ad Taedium

 

[meanreversion]

Reducto ad pudendum, because we're all bunch of c----

 

[HowardCohodas]

Howard,

I understood your system tended to purchase the spreads about 60 days out. I noticed you do not have any spreads in March. Have you shortened your strategy for a reason?


As the indexes have trended higher recently, I also noted the trades you mentioned (#72 and #63) passing the 20% PoT mark. Yet you said you should take no action at this time. I understood at 20% PoT the position should be closed. What's the thinking?

New series will be opened when this month's series expiration quarantined funds are released. That will be next Friday or Monday.

The position should be closed when the at risk funds loss exceed 20%. PoT is used as an opening criteria and a criteria for deciding on expiration or closing a spread on the last day of trading.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Reducto ad pudendum, because we're all bunch of c----

This is likely to cost me a new keyboard if I don't stop sipping home made soda while reading your posts. :-0

 

[j b]

Howard, does it not worry you that a bank/hedge fund trader could read this thread, and seeing a way to make a (more or less) risk-free 10% a month, start aggressively and systemattically selling verticals? This could have the result of moving their prices to fair value, at which point selling them would no longer be an edge.