Watch HowardCohodas Trade Index Options Credit Spreads

[HowardCohodas]

Right-o.

You're a 60 year old chap with some very defined ideas on what is going to work. For the last 110 pages you've had various people tell you (in some shape or form) that you haven't a clue.

Somewhat older, but still work while walking on the treadmill for 6+ hours a day.

No clue, but hardly any of the challenges have stood up under push back. It's not just stubbornness, but a lifetime requiring evidence to back up opinion. And even the best of you cannot say precisely what I'm doing wrong. Mostly vague statements that "this just can't work" based on accumulated wisdom.

I post each spread when I enter it, yet no one has taken one and analyzed it in detail from start to finish. I was even asked to single out a spread to be commented on. I did my job. I don't recall anyone else did theirs.

Your above response is disingenuous at best; I fail to discern even the slightest change in your approach (other than perhaps dropping one index).

Disingenuous. Somewhat harsh, even for you.

Dropping an index and raising my cash reserve percentage.

Thus the dialogue on this thread now constitutes the "talking at each other" variety and is fairly pointless, IMO.

I have other evidence that you may not appreciate what has been learned here as well as what remains unexplained.

I'd be disappointed to see you disengage. Your challenges are frequently the hardest for me to think through before I respond.

 

[HowardCohodas]

I hate to quote Krugman...

http://www.pkarchive.org/trade/company.html

extract:
"Going Back to School

In the scientific world, the syndrome known as "great man's disease" happens when a famous researcher in one field develops strong opinions about another field that he or she does not understand, such as a chemist who decides that he is an expert in medicine or a physicist who decides that he is an expert in cognitive science. The same syndrome is apparent in some business leaders who have been promoted to economic advisers: They have trouble accepting that they must go back to school before they can make pronouncements in a new field. "

There is a significant difference between someone thinking that expertise in the content of one domain is easily transferred to another and someone believing that the process skills of analysis are transferable.

I have not knowingly claimed the former but I have claimed the latter.

Here is a real life example from my life. Two of the most critical skills in running a business are project management and money management. My baby brother died shortly after his 50th birthday. He left no heirs. He owned an elevator installation and maintenance company. My Mother, the banks and the suppliers asked me to run it. His books were in no shape to sell it. I knew nothing about elevators except what I learned from him at family Friday night dinners.

With zero skills in elevator installation and maintenance, but with skills in project management and money management I was able to pay down half his debt which was nearly one half years gross income. This progress was interrupted when rich doctors and churches stopped buying new elevators. I had to give up the business when I got sick from cancer.

Applicable skills are transferable, domain knowledge is usually not. We seem to be confusing the two in this discussion. I think the only meaningful discussion we can have is my contention that the skills I listed are transferable to the trading domain.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Systems analysis type skills where your applying both top down and bottom up approaches to problem solving is probably more relevant, although its doubtful if a hobby programmer would come anywhere close to working or thinking in this way.

An engineering background helps as far as doing the grunt work is concerned.

Neither of the above skill sets will make you a trader.

Which of the specific skills that I listed are not applicable and why not?

 

[TheBramble]

No he was banned for telling the truth.

Ironically, that thread should be quite educational for you Mr Socco was right, everything is known in advance.

He was banned for being a constant ar*se.

But from what you say, he would have known it was going to happen.

Which is more than he was able to demonstrate with his ficticious options on that invisible exchange...Perhaps they had a premium lounge and it was all done in there....away from the irritating constraints of reality.




edit; sorry to cut across your thread Howard, but these contrafactual interjections from the jaded hecklers need to be dealt with on the spot, so to speak.

 

[HowardCohodas]

edit; sorry to cut across your thread Howard, but these contrafactual interjections from the jaded hecklers need to be dealt with on the spot, so to speak.

No need to apologize. I appreciate the push back from another observer. Thanks.

 

[Martinghoul]

Somewhat older, but still work while walking on the treadmill for 6+ hours a day.

No clue, but hardly any of the challenges have stood up under push back. It's not just stubbornness, but a lifetime requiring evidence to back up opinion. And even the best of you cannot say precisely what I'm doing wrong. Mostly vague statements that "this just can't work" based on accumulated wisdom.

I post each spread when I enter it, yet no one has taken one and analyzed it in detail from start to finish. I was even asked to single out a spread to be commented on. I did my job. I don't recall anyone else did theirs.

You're definitely being disingenous (sorry to abuse this adjective) here... You're placing the burden of proof on your opponents and demanding we all challenge you meaningfully here and now. Moreover, by requiring proof from first principles, you're making it even more time consuming I, for one, am not able to do the work right here right now that will prove to you that what you're doing is not worthwhile, in the risk-adjusted sense. However, there's been a lot of arguments that, while indirect, should have been sufficient to cause you to do a LOT of digging and critical re-appraisal of your assumptions. The fact that you haven't done that and that you're looking to market your "method" are the only aspects that worry me.

Otherwise, I like your style and I will endeavor to give you some data that should illustrate my point.

 

[arabianights]

Vic 20 brings back memories... or rather lack thereof.

This is beautiful. I'm totally stealing that line.

 

[the hare]

But from what you say, he would have known it was going to happen.

He did

 

[arabianights]

Hmm... apologies if this is attrocious. I do have a computing degree from Cambridge, what with being a genius and all, but has been a while... let's try some ARM...

MOV r1,

meh, just realised I have no actual joke to make. **** it.

 

[counter_violent]

Engineering is such a vast area. I'm not an engineer, but suffice to say that I work alongside them and in an industry (oil + gas) that is full of engineering disciplines.

If you could think of specific engineering disciplines that may be worthy of study, (at whatever level) and relative to trading, what would they be ?

I would offer up "Fluid Mechanics/Dynamics"

Others?

 

[robster970]

Which college - this one - Arabians special university

 

[robster970]

Breaking problems down, being numerate and having some programming form is useful.

Outside of that, I can't think that optoelectronics, semiconductor theory, analogue and digital circuit design, EM propagation and associated theory, power, control systems, HF and microwave engineering has any value.

Sorry - one area - Digital Signal Processing - stuff like Kelly Criterion is derived from information theory which feeds into DSP in a big way. Kelly came up with that equation to maximise the amount of data you could stuff down finite bandwidth/process assuming unlimited retries for data loss. Apart from that, struggling.........

 

[amit1986]

Engineering is such a vast area. I'm not an engineer, but suffice to say that I work alongside them and in an industry (oil + gas) that is full of engineering disciplines.

If you could think of specific engineering disciplines that may be worthy of study, (at whatever level) and relative to trading, what would they be ?

I would offer up "Fluid Mechanics/Dynamics"

Others?

Engineering as a whole would likely be best for mechanical traders as opposed to, say, discretionary trading like trading off level 2.

 

[counter_violent]

Engineering as a whole would likely be best for mechanical traders as opposed to, say, discretionary trading like trading off level 2.

Perhaps I should qualify my post. I offered up Fluid Mechanics/Dynamics in the sense of "Flow". Prices flow.

 

[arabianights]

Which college - this one - Arabians special university

hehe - no, the sixth form college I was at I was in gcse classes with lewis hamilton*

when I went to the real cambridge for uni I had finally reached seventeen years old... as I'd taken a gap year...

basically I'm a ****ing genius, me. now suck my willy

*wanna know a fact about that you'll never read in the press? his bint who he met there previously went out with the nephew of Pavel Grachev, who's still a good mate of mine (the nephew, not the general)

**Dunno why I'm typing this other than I'm pissed

 

[robster970]

hehe - no, the sixth form college I was at I was in gcse classes with lewis hamilton

when I went to the real cambridge for uni I had finally reached seventeen years old... as I'd taken a gap year...

basically I'm a ****ing genius, me. now suck my willy

So at 17, me and my friend (he went to Trinity, Mathmo then off to Nomura) being the smartest cookies around decided to do Mensa's postal assessment. We did that and they asked us to do a controlled assessment under exam conditions. Friend worked out at 172, me 167 - he was always better than me. We never joined.

Now get on with fellating me sonny jim and make a good job of it - no teeth this time.

 

[arabianights]

what is wrong with you!!??!!!!?!!

no teeth!?!?!!?!?

not so clever with a request like that!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

K

So at 17, me and my friend (he went to Trinity, Mathmo then off to Nomura) being the smartest cookies around decided to do Mensa's postal assessment. We did that and they asked us to do a controlled assessment under exam conditions. Friend worked out at 172, me 167 - he was always better than me. We never joined.

Now get on with fellating me sonny jim and make a good job of it - no teeth this time.

I got 152 at 14 and last one I got 137 that was at 20. I dread to think what it would be now.

On the plus side I proved that inverse correlation twixt drug use and iq was self reinforcing.

 

[robster970]

K

I got 152 at 14 and last one I got 137 that was at 20. I dread to think what it would be now.

I reckon I'm hovering around 120 these days.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I'm hoping for a retrace as I've been teetotal for ages but on the face of it I think I'm just getting older, fatter and having less fun.