Watch HowardCohodas Trade Index Options Credit Spreads

[HowardCohodas]

RPEX, if you think I've been untruthful about my account, call my bet. If you don't know what I'm talking about then you have not read this thread very thoroughly.

 

[j b]

I don't think anyone doubts the returns that you've had, just whether they can be taken as evidence of a long term edge - personally I think you don't really understand just how front-loaded the PNL profile of an options selling strategy normally is. You should expect to make consistent small profits, with occasional bad runs bringing down the average return to somewhere near zero (or lower if you factor in transaction costs).

You're not being accused of dishonesty, merely lack of understanding. And lack of understanding isn't exactly an unfair accusation.

 

[HowardCohodas]

I don't think anyone doubts the returns that you've had, just whether they can be taken as evidence of a long term edge - personally I think you don't really understand just how front-loaded the PNL profile of an options selling strategy normally is. You should expect to make consistent small profits, with occasional bad runs bringing down the average return to somewhere near zero (or lower if you factor in transaction costs).

You're not being accused of dishonesty, merely lack of understanding. And lack of understanding isn't exactly an unfair accusation.

I watched the video he posted. I can come to no other conclusion then he invoked the issue of honesty.

I have repeatedly admitted my lack of depth of knowledge of options. Whether that is prima facie evidence of the lack of competence of my strategy remains is a distance I cannot travel.

The zero to negative mathematical expectation of this strategy has not been shown.

 

[meanreversion]

I have repeatedly admitted my lack of depth of knowledge of options. Whether that is prima facie evidence of the lack of competence of my strategy remains is a distance I cannot travel.

The zero to negative mathematical expectation of this strategy has not been shown.

Goodness. You admit you are not familiar with options yet you want to see proof that your strategy has zero to negative expectancy?

How about you show us some proof or reasoning as to why you think you ARE going to make money in the long run, i.e. a backtest result?

We can't PROVE your strategy expectancy because we're not able to backtest your methodology. Let's see some evidence from you.

 

[j b]

The zero to negative mathematical expectation of this strategy has not been shown.

Not sure I agree - there was a lot of discussion earlier in the thread about what your biases/views on the market, and there seemed to be none. You aren't taking a view on direction, vol, or skew - you're just selling credit spreads. Unless you can demonstrate mispricings, then you're sellng fairly priced options (on average). And the long run expectation of selling (or buying, for that matter) options at a fair price, must be zero, by definition.

Is there anything in the above paragraph that you would disagree with/need clarification on?

 

[Pazienza]

Look, Howie is simply not going to listen to you lot, not matter what. He refuses to see what he doesn't like.

Much like when he argues with someone on the forum, he is simply incapable of backing down, listening to reason, or accepting straightforward facts.

Maybe his system will work rolleyes, maybe not (), but the constant merry-go-round isn't achieving anything. When pressed, he will fall back upon denial, or pretend that he hasn't understood due to your deficient communication skills.

He's been thoroughly exposed and skewered on this and countless other matters, and everyone can see he is deluded at best and a fraud at worst - why not leave him alone and let him get on with his project? Everyone can come back and say "I told you so" in due course.

 

[brettus]

Much like when he argues with someone on the forum, he is simply incapable of backing down, listening to reason, or accepting straightforward facts.

I think pretty much everyone is incapable of backing down on this forum.

 

[Pazienza]

I think pretty much everyone is incapable of backing down on this forum.

Oh yeah pal? Well I'm not changing my mind, it's made up.

 

[the hare]

How about you show us some proof or reasoning as to why you think you ARE going to make money in the long run, i.e. a backtest result?

Vendors make money from the ignorant, and I'm sure Howard with his colourful dashboard will do just fine.

Thats what this thread is about after all

 

[brettus]

Oh yeah pal? Well I'm not changing my mind, it's made up.

Ok ok you win. Are you posting loads so when people read your post they look at the number of posts from you and they think you know what you are talking about to?

 

[Martinghoul]

We can't PROVE your strategy expectancy because we're not able to backtest your methodology.

I am pretty sure I can do this, but it's a relatively time-consuming exercise. I will do it, as soon as my mkt settles down a bit and I have some spare time.

 

[meanreversion]

I am pretty sure I can do this, but it's a relatively time-consuming exercise. I will do it, as soon as my mkt settles down a bit and I have some spare time.

It's not a trivial undertaking, especially as you will need historical vol surface data.. do you have this? And the coding will not be simple either.

 

[Martinghoul]

It's not a trivial undertaking, especially as you will need historical vol surface data.. do you have this? And the coding will not be simple either.

I have the data, I am pretty sure. I don't need to code too much, as I am intending to provide a counterexample, no more than that. Still, as you say, it's not a trivial undertaking, but I don't expect it to need a massive effort.

 

[Pazienza]

Ok ok you win. Are you posting loads so when people read your post they look at the number of posts from you and they think you know what you are talking about to?

Of course, as Howie will tell you anyone with a low post count is just an a$$hole.

 

[Pazienza]

Vendors make money from the ignorant, and I'm sure Howard with his colourful dashboard will do just fine.

Thats what this thread is about after all

 

[HowardCohodas]

Goodness. You admit you are not familiar with options yet you want to see proof that your strategy has zero to negative expectancy?

How about you show us some proof or reasoning as to why you think you ARE going to make money in the long run, i.e. a backtest result?

We can't PROVE your strategy expectancy because we're not able to backtest your methodology. Let's see some evidence from you.

WTF! Were you not one of those joining the chorus that back-tests didn't prove anything, especially related to positive expectancy?

 

[Martinghoul]

WTF! Were you not one of those joining the chorus that back-tests didn't prove anything, especially related to positive expectancy?

With all due respect, you're missing the point entirely here, whether intentionally or not, I don't know. A backtest cannot prove that a strategy is viable, but it can certainly disprove it. In fact, that should ideally be the point of the backtest.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Not sure I agree - there was a lot of discussion earlier in the thread about what your biases/views on the market, and there seemed to be none. You aren't taking a view on direction, vol, or skew - you're just selling credit spreads. Unless you can demonstrate mispricings, then you're sellng fairly priced options (on average). And the long run expectation of selling (or buying, for that matter) options at a fair price, must be zero, by definition.

Is there anything in the above paragraph that you would disagree with/need clarification on?

Probability of touching has nothing to do with direction, volatility or skew? Care to elaborate on that?

 

[HowardCohodas]

With all due respect, you're missing the point entirely here, whether intentionally or not, I don't know. A backtest cannot prove that a strategy is viable, but it can certainly disprove it. In fact, that should ideally be the point of the backtest.

That's what I said all along. I said that I used back-tests to qualify a strategy for the next phase of the qualification process.

Back-tests, paper-trading and small money trading cannot prove that a strategy will be successful. They are only steps to build confidence to get to production trading. And even then, one must have methods to detect when the trader or the strategy is failing.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Look, Howie is simply not going to listen to you lot, not matter what. He refuses to see what he doesn't like.

Much like when he argues with someone on the forum, he is simply incapable of backing down, listening to reason, or accepting straightforward facts.

Maybe his system will work rolleyes, maybe not (), but the constant merry-go-round isn't achieving anything. When pressed, he will fall back upon denial, or pretend that he hasn't understood due to your deficient communication skills.

He's been thoroughly exposed and skewered on this and countless other matters, and everyone can see he is deluded at best and a fraud at worst - why not leave him alone and let him get on with his project? Everyone can come back and say "I told you so" in due course.

Most of your post is so much rubbish that it's not worth my time to refute it item by item.

However, if you are prepared to back up your claim that I may be a fraud, call my bet. That earns you the right to see may cards and show them to everyone else.