Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

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lapalabra said:
That's what I missed out from my post this am :eek:

Morning everyone.

No overnight move for FTSE below that 4676 level, spent most of the time hovering above yesterdays close in a tight range. EURUSD edging 14,4, us light edging 71$, Nikkei finished up and above 10,000. Dax had a look at 5,400 from open but has bounced up.

Another long day?

Perhaps a sell off this am to pivot 4662. Anything below 4650 - fridays high and a I have a TL there - I would see as a reversal.
Click to expand...

Hey Lapster you called the opening drop to 4662 on the nose (y)
 
Paralysis by analysis!

Hey ws, struggling to pull the trigger!

Oil still aroundf 71$
Gold around 955
gbp strenghening against $ but dollar strengthening against the euro
spx still at 1000
nas 100 still around 1620

So this leads me to think many factors have not changed since yesterday.

However, BP has fallen, Barclays and HSBC have fallen and so have M&S and sentiment seems to be down (at least right now)

I was looking to short from around 4674 to 4662 but didnt have the confidence to pull the trigger due to the first set of factors.

Could you point out the variable i missed?

Was it that people would be taking profits today/we are due a pause or retracement day after the up day yesterday?
Or have i missed another more tangible variable?

Thanks in advance:)

Or was the pause in asia also another factor which pointed to a retracement?
 
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lapalabra said:
Geo, can you tell me if I have this right?

EURCAD, 3H- July high 16327, bottom 30 July 15184

Bias change on the 3H in the process of (perhaps,maybe) taking place today as price is now at the HH level looking to move higher.

If / When it does, I look at the 2M for a pullback and then take the trade with a s/l back other side of entry (ie. the other side of the move past HH that confirmed bias change)

Target would be a fib level.

EDIT: GEO, after a coffee, I see your post was about using retracements as a way to enter in the trending direction when that retracement (to a fib level) does not change the bias. My post above is about a pivot day / reversal and getting on from a new trend when the bias has turned. Either way, good to know what you think of the above as a set up anyway?
Click to expand...

Morning All,

@ Mr. Lapster - I think in general you're correct. This would be my plan - eur/cad will make a new bias change to the upside on the break above the high of the 31st, using the alternative bias count.

For a fib pullback setup, presuming it breaks above that point - wait for it to create a new swing high on H3, say at 1.55 for example. Then measure from the new high, to the previous low with the fib tool (last nights low). Wait for price to retrace to a minimum of 50% on H3, or 61.8%, but check it doesn't change the bias.

Then you can start looking at the 2m TF, for a bias change for confirmation, and a long entry. SL is the other side of the pullback. If there's no bias change on 2m, then wait - if it never happens, don't buy (There are other entry methods btw, but I'll leave those for now).

You can use fib extensions on the measured swing for a target.

HTH - Best to check out the info on PNs site to be honest - he has some good video tutorials, which will explain this all better than I can. I'm happy to give my opinion, and discuss as many setups as you like, but I'm aware I could get something wrong! :)
 
Lets see if this retractment can take us to 4600 with the 200 MA lurking just below. Would be an ideal opportunity to go long again as this rally has obviously still got some legs on it.

:)
 
wallstreet1928 said:
Variables - downward bias

1. oil down overnight

2. euro and gbp down too = dollar strengthening

3. nasdaq fails to trade over 1630

4. s&p futures below key 1000 level

5. FTSE below key 4700 level
Click to expand...

Kaisen and jonboy .........

this is argument i put forward in the morning prior to the open

OIl broke a key level of $71.2 .......bearish

S&P had broken below 1000 ....bearish

Euro had broken below 1.44........bearish

Nasdaq ..........i gave a formula yesterday stating Nasdaq has to trade above 1630 in order for the world markets to trade higher but it failed.......so failure always produces a move southwards

I could have shorted it from the outset but i had done my analysis overnight and my trading plan was to go short below 4670........always stick to trading plan and follow the trend lines

I have gone short @ 4667 and currently amended my stop loss to break even.......with a target of 4650 - 4640

Kaisen you certainly took into account the main variables...........and they were all indicating a downward move

the next step was identifying a good entry, stop loss and target level .........
 
wallstreet1928 said:
Kaisen and jonboy .........

this is argument i put forward in the morning prior to the open

OIl broke a key level of $71.2 .......bearish

S&P had broken below 1000 ....bearish

Euro had broken below 1.44........bearish

Nasdaq ..........i gave a formula yesterday stating Nasdaq has to trade above 1630 in order for the world markets to trade higher but it failed.......so failure always produces a move southwards

I could have shorted it from the outset but i had done my analysis overnight and my trading plan was to go short below 4670........always stick to trading plan and follow the trend lines

I have gone short @ 4667 and currently amended my stop loss to break even.......with a target of 4650 - 4640

Kaisen you certainly took into account the main variables...........and they were all indicating a downward move

the next step was identifying a good entry, stop loss and target level .........
Click to expand...

Thanks ws, at least i am starting to see the variables and how they affect things. I suppose like anything, initially I will be slow and will get faster and then be able to know, with a high degree of probability, before the moves occur. Not just seeing the light afterwards!

Thanks for your time as ever!

ATB:)
 
wallstreet1928 said:
FTSE strategy - 4th August

1 month 1 hr chart ....................potential fib retrace of 4566 if we break down. previous resistance = support @ 4650

1 week 10 min chart .......

4670 KEY LEVEL

watching light blue downward sloping line for bear flag scenario

< 4670 ..........i will go short ..target 4650, 4640

> 4670 ...bias still remains on upside and i will look to go long 4680 region....but stop loss must be 4660
Click to expand...

1st target hit ..............
 
wallstreet1928 said:
FTSE strategy - 4th August

1 month 1 hr chart ....................potential fib retrace of 4566 if we break down. previous resistance = support @ 4650

1 week 10 min chart .......

4670 KEY LEVEL

watching light blue downward sloping line for bear flag scenario

< 4670 ..........i will go short ..target 4650, 4640

> 4670 ...bias still remains on upside and i will look to go long 4680 region....but stop loss must be 4660
Click to expand...

2ndt target hit.......

I am covering the rest of my position here @ 4647 ..........
 
kaisen said:
Hey ws, I got a really poor entry at 4655 but using a stepped SL at every 5pnts drop managed to secure a nice 15pnts. SL triggered at 4640.
Click to expand...

well done kaisen

I should have waited for 4640 as well but I closed early as euro popped its head above 1.44 and S&P support @ 996 .....
 
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