Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[kaisen]

I just wanted to say that last week I made a concerted effort to stick to the trading rules for the 2 strats I use.

I made 10 trades. 2 broke the rules, and failed, rightly so. 1 met the rules, but was stopped out for 8pips, though ultimately the trade direction was correct. The other 7 were all winners!

Considering a few weeks ago I was floundering around and loosing left right and centre, this is a major step forward So here's to boring bias counts, fib setups, etc

Ok, I better get on, lots of work to do today. have a good day everyone

p.s PN's site Trading Strategies. | A Forex Education Community - I accept the strats may not be everyones cup of tea, but it's well worth a look.

Well done Geo!

Long may it continue!

And thanks for all your analysis and feedback. It really is very useful.

When I feel i have moved forward with the FTSE I will be looking at your posts and currency trade strategies!

All the best

 

[lapalabra]

I am using the Range Breakout strat, which is probably best suited to Forex.

Range breakout is what hurt me this am. It worked so beautifully yesterday, every pair just bolted out the door and started trending like it was 1999. But I fudged the rules to create trades today, and lost and lost and lost.

 

[masnachu]

Well done Geo!

Long may it continue!

And thanks for all your analysis and feedback. It really is very useful.

When I feel i have moved forward with the FTSE I will be looking at your posts and currency trade strategies!

All the best

Kaisen , the stuff geo refers to as bias etc , range breakouts etc are all general principles , they work in any market.

<hold on need to dump a FTSE short>

 

[Manya1983]

Im tempted to go long on the FTSE at 4600 but GBP/USD isn't giving us any clues as to whether it would push through 17000.

Its possible that a long entry at 4600 may just float around until we see a definete movement in cable.

Whats the general consensus?

 

[bw81]

Im tempted to go long on the FTSE at 4600 but GBP/USD isn't giving us any clues as to whether it would push through 17000.

Its possible that a long entry at 4600 may just float around until we see a definete movement in cable.

Whats the general consensus?

yes Ive been pondering over that. It worries me that cable has rallied a lot lately and these markets are prone to move with the strength of the doller. Intersted to hear otheres views?

 

[lapalabra]

Im tempted to go long on the FTSE at 4600 but GBP/USD isn't giving us any clues as to whether it would push through 17000.

Its possible that a long entry at 4600 may just float around until we see a definete movement in cable.

Whats the general consensus?

Am I mixing things up or did I read recently there's been a decoupling of cable and indices?

Either way whatever anyone says I'm long 4600 if we get there.

I mean, that's, like, so low right, so, like, it has to go up from there?

 

[kaisen]

Im tempted to go long on the FTSE at 4600 but GBP/USD isn't giving us any clues as to whether it would push through 17000.

Its possible that a long entry at 4600 may just float around until we see a definete movement in cable.

Whats the general consensus?

IMO, the euro/dollar is the key. I have a level at 1.4378 which i feel is a big determining factor for todays direction.

It has held having been touched about 7 times. Was penetrated about 12.40hrs but has regained above this level.

A concerted break below and I think we go south.

Also other key stocks are at make or break points but currently (and all can change) holding.

Sadly i jumped into a long position this morning and therefore i am keenly analysing everything.
Wish i was sat on the sidelines waiting to see but hey!

 

[masnachu]

Re: Lapalabra

I never think of it in terms of cable , always $ weakness/strength etc . Can't say I've seen anything to suggest the relationship is/as changed.

 

[h_a]

can i ask for some advice on risk probability calculators are they any good and do they have flaws

 

[lapalabra]

Re: Lapalabra

I never think of it in terms of cable , always $ weakness/strength etc . Can't say I've seen anything to suggest the relationship is/as changed.

Ah ok, thought you may be talking about the cable / S&P that have mirrored each other -but my mistake if it was not you who mentioned this previously.

Agreed, $ weakness / strength is key - I don't have real time usd index to map this but eurodollar for me works very well as an indicator.

 

[masnachu]

Kaisen , as I was saying earlier , those are general principles, they work in all markets.

Currencies tend to behave a little better form a technical point of view (that doesn't mean they're easier, markets are markets, trading is trading , it's all tricky), it's just that , to me at least, it's a little easier to believe in what your seeing , (S/R , trends etc). That's not a put down on the FTSE , but when you consider that the FTSE is 100 stocks all doing their thing (same for all other equity indices), it's pretty bloody amazing any kind of TA works at all. So with the FTSE you have to give things a little more leeway sometimes , there's a little more of a 'fudge factor' involved that only comes with experience

All above just , IMHO.

 

[kaisen]

Kaisen , as I was saying earlier , those are general principles, they work in all markets.

Currencies tend to behave a little better form a technical point of view (that doesn't mean they're easier, markets are markets, trading is trading , it's all tricky), it's just that , to me at least, it's a little easier to believe in what your seeing , (S/R , trends etc). That's not a put down on the FTSE , but when you consider that the FTSE is 100 stocks all doing their thing (same for all other equity indices), it's pretty bloody amazing any kind of TA works at all. So with the FTSE you have to give things a little more leeway sometimes , there's a little more of a 'fudge factor' involved that only comes with experience

All above just , IMHO.

Thanks Mas, I appreciate your input my friend.

And i fully understand what you mean regarding the ftse LOL

 

[masnachu]

Ah ok, thought you may be talking about the cable / S&P that have mirrored each other -but my mistake if it was not you who mentioned this previously.

Agreed, $ weakness / strength is key - I don't have real time usd index to map this but eurodollar for me works very well as an indicator.

Euro has the largest weighting in the $ index, so a reasonable proxy.

(may well be a relationship between cable and SP ?? not something I know much about)

 

[kaisen]

Anyone looking long?

Oil just gone back through 71$

Gold and other metals have risen in last 20 mins

Dollar weakening (currently) against Euro

All a bit fine line though at the minute!

 

[masnachu]

can i ask for some advice on risk probability calculators are they any good and do they have flaws

No idea I'm afraid H_A , never used them. How are you thinking of applying them ?

 

[h_a]

by taking the low and peak levels then the calculator will give you the Retracement level. I was wodering if any1 was using the calcualtor on this forum

 

[london_lad]

Long @ 4600 is good, even if its for a few days. However, I dont think we will reach there today. I might go long at 4620 range. Very busy day at work, haven't been able to focus. Anyone thinks long @ 4620 is a wrong entry, pls shout. Much appreciated in advance guys.

 

[Mr. G]

That's not a put down on the FTSE , but when you consider that the FTSE is 100 stocks all doing their thing (same for all other equity indices), it's pretty bloody amazing any kind of TA works at all. So with the FTSE you have to give things a little more leeway sometimes , there's a little more of a 'fudge factor' involved that only comes with experience

An interesting point that you make Masnachu and one that I've been thinking about of late. Given that TA is all about trying to identify, amongst other things, price patterns that will hopefully repeat (on the basis that human psychology dictates that we tend to the same things over and over when faced with the same set of circumstances) I'm wondering how 100 or 500 individual stocks can collectively come to influence the overall index in any predictable way. Any thoughts anyone? Could develop into an interesting debate.

Once we're done with this subject we can talk about volumes in Europe and how the numbers may not mean much......

 

[london_lad]

An interesting point that you make Masnachu and one that I've been thinking about of late. Given that TA is all about trying to identify, amongst other things, price patterns that will hopefully repeat (on the basis that human psychology dictates that we tend to the same things over and over when faced with the same set of circumstances) I'm wondering how 100 or 500 individual stocks can collectively come to influence the overall index in any predictable way. Any thoughts anyone? Could develop into an interesting debate.

Once we're done with this subject we can talk about volumes in Europe and how the numbers may not mean much......

Mr G. are you from TCA Trading?

 

[Mr. G]

Mr G. are you from TCA Trading?

No I'm not. I gather TCA may not have the best reputation hence I changed my name. My iteration of TCA was merely made up of initials......