Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[traceyjc]

Super: Sorry for the late response, just out of a meeting.

that's a really good question about the bonds, to be honest I don't think the market even knows! The Schatz (German 2yr) spiked on the order book and then dropped like a stone. Markets rallied a bit but have since not done much. I think this is going to be one of those "Read an economists report" type scenarios. Personally Ithink it's a great up-take which would to me mean good for bank share prices (Eurostoxx is heaviest weighted for financials compared to DAX/FTSE btw).

In terms of bonds, If you believe that another rate cut from the ECB was priced in already (Goldman made a september rate cut by 25bp call this week) then this good uptake means a probable floor on rates so the extra 25bp needs to be removed from the market, i.e. sell your bonds to make the yield higher. I am fundamentally long bonds at the moment (as are most of the world; read the Committment of Traders Report) so it doesnt go with the long term view. I'd say thats why there's a lot of indecision in there. That help?"!

 

[lapalabra]

keep an eye this trend line chaps

LOL, that's the one I was trying to describe, its turning into a monster WS

I really should learn how to put up charts...

Actually, I took a different high but ended near enough...an art not a science as they say....

 

[kaisen]

instead of taking +8 pts i gave away - 11 pts

Hi DB, I am having a annoying time too! Dont usually use stops that much but today i used them twice. First time to protect my position and lock in 2pnts whilst leaving position open as seemed to be trending down. My current strategy is to take profit and so i watched as 6pnts (which i could have taken) became 2pnts at my stop.

Second time went short at 4236 put in stop loss and then reduced it to what i thought was a resistance line, stopped me out for 1 pnt before going south.

RE: Stops - i have learnt today (NEWBIE) that if you place a 10 pnt stop the spread makes it only 8! Also if i am to use stops then ws is right, probably 20pnts min. You can always close, as ws does, if your analysis/conditions change.

Currently 6 pnts down - could have been 10-15 up.:whistling

 

[masnachu]

I dunno - 19thJUNE high, yesterday high, plot the trendline, thats the down channel I see us trying to break out of now

EDIT: thats the third touch confirmation, I think she's going to grow into a monster with time!

Only one touch to down channel line thou (low 23rd) , and given yesterdays flat action across the face of the channel , I wouldn't be playing that right now , although if price can't hold yesterdays lows , that channel may come into play.

 

[dr.blix]

closed my long for -3 pts loss. soon as i do, it goes north.

i can literally just about restrain myself from posting obscene language...

 

[dr.blix]

short 4234 target 4221

 

[Tickdoc]

Hey! You're supposed to be stopping for today...

 

[SuperDriveGuy]

Super: Sorry for the late response, just out of a meeting.

that's a really good question about the bonds, to be honest I don't think the market even knows! The Schatz (German 2yr) spiked on the order book and then dropped like a stone. Markets rallied a bit but have since not done much. I think this is going to be one of those "Read an economists report" type scenarios. Personally Ithink it's a great up-take which would to me mean good for bank share prices (Eurostoxx is heaviest weighted for financials compared to DAX/FTSE btw).

In terms of bonds, If you believe that another rate cut from the ECB was priced in already (Goldman made a september rate cut by 25bp call this week) then this good uptake means a probable floor on rates so the extra 25bp needs to be removed from the market, i.e. sell your bonds to make the yield higher. I am fundamentally long bonds at the moment (as are most of the world; read the Committment of Traders Report) so it doesnt go with the long term view. I'd say thats why there's a lot of indecision in there. That help?"!

Kinda

Thanks JC. I am still learning, so will need to absorb all that. The Schatz (German 2yr) spiked up and the down and its steadily going up now.

As these(bond futures) markets move kind of in a purposeful manner and the players seem to be big, my impression is that I can scalp a few ticks! I am still learning and will let you all know how I progress.

Regards

 

[masnachu]

shhh , if blix stops there will be nobody driving this market :cheesy: can't get much quieter , Q is which way they gonna break ?

 

[dr.blix]

hehehe...i think you can probably guess that discipline is a tad wanting in mr.blixys trading methodology. :whistling

 

[lapalabra]

Only one touch to down channel line thou (low 23rd) , and given yesterdays flat action across the face of the channel , I wouldn't be playing that right now , although if price can't hold yesterdays lows , that channel may come into play.

I'm ignoring the bottom side, as you said it hasn't come into play enough and we aren't there.

Its the top line that has been putting a cap on all the highs today and now coincides with pivot as we speak. With 50MA there @ 4240 there has to be a definitive movement past to qualify any thought of longs.

EDIT: And we may get it now...

 

[bw81]

Anyone know whats happened to the swiss franc? The USD/CHF & GBP/CHF have gone beserk to the upside

 

[lapalabra]

Anyone know whats happened to the swiss franc? The USD/CHF & GBP/CHF have gone beserk to the upside

Holy....I chose USDCHF this morning cos I had a better set up and made 40pips on the move this morning past 10700, but exited and hadn't looked since...

Oh man oh man...this is what I mean about keeping something in a winning trade on forex....I would have been over 240 pips.

No idea whats behind it, can't see any events on the calendar, looking into it now...

 

[SuddenDeath]

how do I post a chart on here ?

 

[SuddenDeath]

I think Swiss national bank chairman , spoke at 11am

Anyone know whats happened to the swiss franc? The USD/CHF & GBP/CHF have gone beserk to the upside

Yours kindly

 

[lapalabra]

Anyone know whats happened to the swiss franc? The USD/CHF & GBP/CHF have gone beserk to the upside

Took 23 pips, but 10886 is key resistance and the move is so strong I'm afraid of pullbacks - will watch for the next hour and see if 11000 is worth aiming for depending on the action

 

[bw81]

Holy....I chose USDCHF this morning cos I had a better set up and made 40pips on the move this morning past 10700, but exited and hadn't looked since...

Oh man oh man...this is what I mean about keeping something in a winning trade on forex....I would have been over 240 pips.

No idea whats behind it, can't see any events on the calendar, looking into it now...

I had a long position on this morning at 10655 and got off at 10715

its since gone to a high of 10909 could have had another 190 or so points. Damn why didnt i put a trailing stop against it.

 

[lapalabra]

Yours kindly

Ah cheers SD, rooting around for what bombshell he dropped!

 

[lapalabra]

I had a long position on this morning at 10655 and got off at 10715

its since gone to a high of 10909 could have had another 190 or so points. Damn why didnt i put a trailing stop against it.

Mate, I do that *all* the time.

Have to develop a strategy that leaves something in the middle. Trends can go on for ages and trailing stops are ideal for these kinds of plays.

My AUDJPY I left overnight from 7540 was the same - but as you can see the problem is when the pullback seems hard but the trend on a higher TF stays intact.

I'm spending a lot of time trying to sort this out, it takes little of my actual time at the computer trading once the trade is under way - which is great cos I'm the biggest obstacle to my trading!

 

[SuddenDeath]

This is a good calendar for trading, set time to your zone...

Ah cheers SD, rooting around for what bombshell he dropped!

and thats it.

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