Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

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Here's the little piece we were just sent on it, essentially, everyone's long bonds which historically means paper money out of equities:

* Europe; focus on today's ECB 1y LTRO, announcement ~10.20am. Plenty of speculation surrounding the take up with Rtrs poll suggesting a range of Eur60bn to Eur650bn with consensus of Eur300bn. Much lower than the high "f'casts" of Eur 1trn!. Plenty of diversifying views, which were adequately expressed y'day as accounts put on very large downside protection plays in the morning in ERU9 and ERZ9 via put spreads, flies,condors and macro funds unwinding call and call spreads. Bear in mind the market is very long outright and on the curve (2y/10y) and via HUGE bullish option strategies ahead of today's LTRO and with the prospect of another ECB rate cut possibly in September (Goldman's call). This gave way to renewed bull positioning via July and Sep call spreads and Z9 and H0 1x2 call spreads in good size in the afternoon. The ECB have pledged "all bids will be satisfied at fixed rate". The LTRO will overshadow 2nd tier data from Italy (cons. conf and retail sales) and Eurozone c/a. Supply sees €1.5bn 2.35% BTPei Sep-2019. ECB's Bini-Smaghi will be speaking today and likely to repeat previous ECB comments on rates (appropriate) and on current policy measures.
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dr.blix said:
need to work on my fear and greed thing...when i reach my target, i always think...mmm, just a little bit more...it's going to kill me, so i must knock it on the head.
Click to expand...

Maybe an auto sell option would make you keep to your plan more? I use auto buy, theory being to let the market come to me and not get trigger happy and then auto sell which, although the market can go on further, gives you a sense of achievement in that you stuck to your plan and locks in some profit!
If sentiment or conditions improve so much you could always inch up your auto sell or you could cancel that an inch up your stop loss.

Better to be frustrated about the "additional" profit you lost rather than the "actual" loss made.

Also, if you do not stick to your plan you will beat yourself up about it which could affect future trades and pride may raise its ugly head as you wait to be proved right! And we know what pride comes before!:cheesy:

Just a thought!:whistling
 
traceyjc said:
Morning all, hope you all have a good day trading!

Big day for the ECB too, the LTRO announcement is due between 10 and 10:30; this is big guys so careful if you're in positions around this time. Essentially (if you don't know), the ECB are offering european banks unlimited re-financing for 1 year at the current base rate of 1% (they've also indicated that this is the floor on rates unless another MAJOR catastrophe happens this year) so I'd expect a massive up-take on this. This is essentially Quantitative Easing for Europe so the affect will be mainly on Bonds but Equities are surely going to react to the plans. So, I know a lot of you trade FTSE but if looking at DAX/Eurostoxx for quity guidance today, there wont be paper (large investors) i nthe market until after the announcement. My squawk says its rumored to be out at 10:20
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(y) thanks for the heads up , missed this one , busy morning
 
No problem,

Announcment: €442bn allotted, consensus was €300bn. Over 1000 banks signed up to programme
 
kaisen said:
Maybe an auto sell option would make you keep to your plan more? I use auto buy, theory being to let the market come to me and not get trigger happy and then auto sell which, although the market can go on further, gives you a sense of achievement in that you stuck to your plan and locks in some profit!
If sentiment or conditions improve so much you could always inch up your auto sell or you could cancel that an inch up your stop loss.

Better to be frustrated about the "additional" profit you lost rather than the "actual" loss made.

Also, if you do not stick to your plan you will beat yourself up about it which could affect future trades and pride may raise its ugly head as you wait to be proved right! And we know what pride comes before!:cheesy:

Just a thought!:whistling
Click to expand...

wise words mr.kaisen :D
 
Bear flag on 15 and 30TF

:?:
Bearish flag on 15 and 30 min TF

:?:

Now developed into more like an ascending triangle
 
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traceyjc said:
No problem,

Announcment: €442bn allotted, consensus was €300bn. Over 1000 banks signed up to programme
Click to expand...


Que everybody trying to figure out which euro banks are up the creek , with ref to the fact that they haven't come clean on their bal sheets yet, pressure from germans because of elections in Sep. :(
 
ftse trying/is breaking into yesterday channel , 40MA @ ~ '38 , support at mo from 10 & 20MA from below
 
masnachu said:
ftse trying/is breaking into yesterday channel , 40MA @ ~ '38 , support at mo from 10 & 20MA from below
Click to expand...

I dunno - 19thJUNE high, yesterday high, plot the trendline, thats the down channel I see us trying to break out of now

EDIT: thats the third touch confirmation, I think she's going to grow into a monster with time!
 
Out b/e....we are firmly in a lervely channel now

Three highs on JUN22 plot the bottom
Jun 21 high, yesterday high plot the top
 
keep an eye this trend line chaps
 

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