Sunseeker, I certainly appreciate you posting on here.
I have recently read quite a lot regarding astro/cycle analysis.
Even though the Bradley chart is pointing to big falls to come, which Arch Crawford certainly believes in, other well respected commentators are calling for a fall into July and then a healthy leg up into September/October.
With regards to longer term trades I feel that 'one' needs to keep an open mind on direction until nearer the date. Do you agree ?
I have recently read quite a lot regarding astro/cycle analysis.
Even though the Bradley chart is pointing to big falls to come, which Arch Crawford certainly believes in, other well respected commentators are calling for a fall into July and then a healthy leg up into September/October.
With regards to longer term trades I feel that 'one' needs to keep an open mind on direction until nearer the date. Do you agree ?
Does anyone else get the Daily Trend Watch email from Big Trends? It's free so hopefully I'm not committing any heinous copyright crime by reproducing it here:
Today I focus you on the gap between Bulls minus Bears. As of the latest reading late last week, we just registered the largest gap in optimism ever recorded in this survey going back to early 1987. With a 71.4% reading of Bulls on stocks versus just an 8.6% of Bears, this gap of 62.8 percentage points beats out the prior record 62.0 gap in early January 2000. Perhaps more notable still is the next largest gap of 60.0 registered right at the market top in late-August 1987. In addition, a second signal of relative optimism at 49.0 in mid-September 1987 came just in front of the October 1987 crash. Following down the list, three readings in 2000 in late-July, mid-September and mid-November came just as the market was beginning its first clearly downtrending leg of the multi-year bear market. A signal in late 1992 led to six months of stagnation, while the late May 1996 signal came right before a nasty decline over the next 6 weeks. The same goes for late February 1997 and late 2001, while the beginning of 1993 signal was a month early before a subsequent 3-month correction.
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Weekly Poll:
Last Week Marked Largest Gap Ever Between Bulls Minus Bears
The only period that investors might worry about being to early on the exit was the blow-off move that came in the Nasdaq after the December 1999 and early January 2000 optimism readings. Along these lines, one reader, Ken, wrote in Tuesday to question whether this time is different: "This recent move from the March lows has been significant and extended beyond most expectations. Isn't that more comparable to 1999 than to 1987?" Certainly we have to be careful of being too bearish and most traders would prefer to wait for a trend breakdown for confirmation. For me, confirmation in the Nasdaq Composite will be a weekly close under 1578, which is the site of the upper 20-week Acceleration Band. The fact that the Nasdaq remains the strongest horse among the big three averages is still a sign of short-term strength. When the market tanks, typically the Nasdaq will underperform. But early 2000 stands out as an exception. While the Nasdaq Composite rose from 3882 to 4590 in the first two months of 2000 after the optimistic AAII extreme, the Dow fell from 11,522 to 9836 and the S&P 500 went from 1441 to 1329 over the same period. So Nasdaq outperformance did not pull the other big cap averages out of their funk after investor hopes hit their peak. It seems clear to me that while we had a short-term upside reversal Tuesday and the market could attempt a pre-holiday bounce, the longer-term implications for the major markets as a whole here offer much greater downside risk than upside reward. While we should all make every effort to trade what we see the market telling us on a day-to-day basis, I think it's important to maintain this longer-term context in order to avoid doing anything that could prove too costly as we near a likely major market turning point. And I expect that when the market does break, we are going to get some phenomenal downside trades. In any case, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hanging in a relatively low 21% area, expect to see fireworks as market volatility is likely to heat up in the next several months. I plan to discuss the strategy of straddles as a strategy later this week, as this options strategy makes perfect sense for relatively quiet markets that are likely to soon explode.
There we go, sell everything the end is nigh!
Today I focus you on the gap between Bulls minus Bears. As of the latest reading late last week, we just registered the largest gap in optimism ever recorded in this survey going back to early 1987. With a 71.4% reading of Bulls on stocks versus just an 8.6% of Bears, this gap of 62.8 percentage points beats out the prior record 62.0 gap in early January 2000. Perhaps more notable still is the next largest gap of 60.0 registered right at the market top in late-August 1987. In addition, a second signal of relative optimism at 49.0 in mid-September 1987 came just in front of the October 1987 crash. Following down the list, three readings in 2000 in late-July, mid-September and mid-November came just as the market was beginning its first clearly downtrending leg of the multi-year bear market. A signal in late 1992 led to six months of stagnation, while the late May 1996 signal came right before a nasty decline over the next 6 weeks. The same goes for late February 1997 and late 2001, while the beginning of 1993 signal was a month early before a subsequent 3-month correction.
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Weekly Poll:
Last Week Marked Largest Gap Ever Between Bulls Minus Bears
The only period that investors might worry about being to early on the exit was the blow-off move that came in the Nasdaq after the December 1999 and early January 2000 optimism readings. Along these lines, one reader, Ken, wrote in Tuesday to question whether this time is different: "This recent move from the March lows has been significant and extended beyond most expectations. Isn't that more comparable to 1999 than to 1987?" Certainly we have to be careful of being too bearish and most traders would prefer to wait for a trend breakdown for confirmation. For me, confirmation in the Nasdaq Composite will be a weekly close under 1578, which is the site of the upper 20-week Acceleration Band. The fact that the Nasdaq remains the strongest horse among the big three averages is still a sign of short-term strength. When the market tanks, typically the Nasdaq will underperform. But early 2000 stands out as an exception. While the Nasdaq Composite rose from 3882 to 4590 in the first two months of 2000 after the optimistic AAII extreme, the Dow fell from 11,522 to 9836 and the S&P 500 went from 1441 to 1329 over the same period. So Nasdaq outperformance did not pull the other big cap averages out of their funk after investor hopes hit their peak. It seems clear to me that while we had a short-term upside reversal Tuesday and the market could attempt a pre-holiday bounce, the longer-term implications for the major markets as a whole here offer much greater downside risk than upside reward. While we should all make every effort to trade what we see the market telling us on a day-to-day basis, I think it's important to maintain this longer-term context in order to avoid doing anything that could prove too costly as we near a likely major market turning point. And I expect that when the market does break, we are going to get some phenomenal downside trades. In any case, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hanging in a relatively low 21% area, expect to see fireworks as market volatility is likely to heat up in the next several months. I plan to discuss the strategy of straddles as a strategy later this week, as this options strategy makes perfect sense for relatively quiet markets that are likely to soon explode.
There we go, sell everything the end is nigh!
I guess those Bull/Bear polls weren't around at the end of the last bear markets but I wonder what their readings would have been then?? Would there have been a similar level of optimism as investors had seen the market begin to turn upwards?
Thats not to say I think the Bear market is over, I think there are lower prices to come and this is just another Bear market rally, and a significant pullback is long overdue. Then again I thought the market overvalued at Dow 7500, so what do I know???
Thats not to say I think the Bear market is over, I think there are lower prices to come and this is just another Bear market rally, and a significant pullback is long overdue. Then again I thought the market overvalued at Dow 7500, so what do I know???
Paddington
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Looking like another cracking start for Tom's path of the day today
china white
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Sunseeker,
totally agree with u - looking 2 b short whilst I'll b surfing in Mexico...
Trying 2 figure out now what local Mexican newspapers in Baja publish indices....
have a very profitable July!
PS - on a separate note - whats Sid's model? pls excuse my ignorance....
totally agree with u - looking 2 b short whilst I'll b surfing in Mexico...
Trying 2 figure out now what local Mexican newspapers in Baja publish indices.... have a very profitable July!
PS - on a separate note - whats Sid's model? pls excuse my ignorance....
DanielLambert
Active member
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Hey China!
There are loads of Internet cafes in Mexico!
With the time difference , You will be able to get a few hours trading in before you have brunch!!
There are loads of Internet cafes in Mexico!
With the time difference , You will be able to get a few hours trading in before you have brunch!!
chinawhite, I am not talking to you...BaS@#RD, going surfing while the rest of us have to work!!!!!!!! ))
Bonsai LOL
anyway this is a tad choppy for my liking and I am down for the day, so I am sidelined until I see some direction. That may not come until later today....
))Bonsai LOL
anyway this is a tad choppy for my liking and I am down for the day, so I am sidelined until I see some direction. That may not come until later today....
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This looks to me like one big triangle forming, so hopefully we'll get a nice trend after US lunch.
DanielLambert
Active member
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A320,
Was in Vegas in May....... I love the Bellagio!
Do you go?
Was in Vegas in May....... I love the Bellagio!
Do you go?
hey guys how about a Trade2Win jolly to Vegas? who's in?
China, you don't know what Sid's Model is? Why not come on my exclusive seminar and find out, only £5,000 each and limited to the first 10,000 to apply.
Sid
BTW moderators don't chastise me for advertising, I'm joking. In case that wasn't obvious!
China, you don't know what Sid's Model is? Why not come on my exclusive seminar and find out, only £5,000 each and limited to the first 10,000 to apply.
Sid
BTW moderators don't chastise me for advertising, I'm joking. In case that wasn't obvious!
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Sign me up Sid! At £5,000 it sounds a bargain. I presume tea and coffee is extra?
Only another 9,999 places to sell.
Only another 9,999 places to sell.
