US Indices intraday trading - JUNE 2003

car key,

good point.. my only defense will be that human beings, traders alike, are creatures of habit....and those habits are reflected in the action in the market. Most think they are rational investors but i am coming to the conclusion that all traders are emotional...

it is time or whatever is above that influence the masses to what we interpret as day-to-day action in the market..

I have attached an old chart which makes a point...Time was up, and the market reversed...why? F@~K knows, but it did....

maybe God is playing dice after all!!!!!! sorry Rglenn
 

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i agree that humans and traders are creatures of habit

but habits can change, and so can the market, which it has.

the whole nature of trading in general has changed

it's got FASTER

the market has also become more accessible to the masses

today, anyone can set up a PC in their office/bedroom/whatever that's fully loaded with a state of the art trading platform and begin trading, and they can do this from anywhere in the world

i just think that as technology continues to advance, this will impact more and more on the way we trade, and consequently, all those historic signals and patterns of yesteryear, are gonna become more and more obsolete
 
Good morning,

The month-end and quarter-end came and went. The funds fought it out but in the end it was a draw. In the final minutes there was a big sell order in the S&P500 which once again took it down to the 972 area. This is a clear support area and will need to hold for the bulls to remain in charge. The trading range was so well defined yesterday that I would go long above 976 and short below 973.

It is the first day of a new month and there is almost always new money coming into the market on the first day. I am anticipating a rally based on this argument, and I am expecting a gap up based on the expected path. It really depends on how Europe behaves this morning. The likely scenario would be a nervous rally today and then a really big day up at some point during Wednesday or Thursday in the pre-holiday light volume environment. This would then be the top and the market would begin its decline into the end of the month. However, as there has been no real downside pressure yet below 970 I will use this particular area as confirmation of weakness.

The FTSE and the Dax is both holding support very well. The DAX is bullish as long as it holds above 3200, and the FTSE is neutral above 4000, bearish below and bullish above 4088.

The Bradley sideograph is coming close to its peak. The top should be this week or early next week.
 

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Nice summing up Sunseeker

The way I see the Dow is this. If it drops more than 70pts today then we are back in a bear market if it goes above 9000 then we are going towards a strong bullish momentum.

My guess is that it will be up today by around 80 to 100pts
 
the Bradley model says 2nd July but who is to say it is not out by a day, a day early, like it was a day late in March
 
Hi,

I think you are over complicating trading.

Trading just breakouts on NAZ stocks with MM should be profitable alone.

JonnyT
 
Johny, I wasnt gonna say it, but now that you brought it up. I think 95 % of traders carry too mcuh garbage with them...For me trading should be simple.....I know geometry sounds complicated, but in reality it makes it so straight forward....and I dont have to content with MA, STOCH, RSI, and all the other things that others use....i just trade what i see day by day and get one with it...trying to sleep well at night....although entertaining this joint to the wee hours dents my sleep pattern
 
Sunseeker,

u've got a very interesting approach and I must admit, even tho I was quite sceptical in the beginning, and honestly, still have doubts, I start viewing your work as at least next to remarkable. I am just a bit uncomfortable with the fact that, as u put it, u never look at RSI, CCI etc. in yr trading.... Bradley approach is built on finite differences (grids) if I'm not mistaken, and I reckon u really want those TA confirmations as u progress from one grid cell to another.

On a separate note, I quite agree we'll have an uptick on ligher volume - it just has to happen b4 July 4th - and then slide down (lucky if just slide, not precipitate!).
 
ChinaWhite,

thx for the compliment. I hope you understand that I am not knocking those who use MACD, RSI, and all the other stuff.

I think it boils down to how I learned to trade....I will call myself a tape watcher more than anything....I think that is a forgotten art....where you get a feel for what the market is doing....

I would love to sit down with Mr Chart or chartman and let them explain to me how the heck they use all these indicators...I am amazed they can make sense of it....but they can and they do...

my force is to identify the point at which the market is moving, and in between I just sit back and watch....

My expected path for example is spun out of tape reading to a degree....

NOTE ON MARKET:

I am following the DAX very closely here. The Dax is a great proxy for the US out of hours...Now the SP has tested the 972 area again, and held. If this falls during RTH, then we will go down faster than Pamela's kniockers.. there are tons of stops below there.....
 
Sun,
Is it right that the Bradley model suggests turning points,but doesn't indicate up or down? I go with the down theory,if only for the fact Yell is IPOing again!!!
By the way,where's this Pamela hang out!?

Steve
 
Morning guys. There has been much discussion on here about a turning point on the 2nd- 3rd of this month. Another trader I follow a bit has a turning point around the same time (last week - see this link

http://www.kingcambo.com/fl/KingsWatch.pdf )

When I look at the charts I struggle to see why the turning point wasn't on the 17th
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=8&freq=1

(apologies for link - I have no idea how to post charts)

This makes me wonder that if you're calling a major CIT in the next few days whether it may actually be a rebound. I struggle to see the S&P making it back to c.1010 for a double top by Thursday as it seems a long way up for such a fast move

We have a fair amount of data out this week, with today's ISM at 10.00 EST being quite critical and which I guess could support a small rally or trash the market through its current s/t support

FWIW I feel that there should be a small rally in the mkt but would be topping up sorts at the 9100/150 level in the Dow. I'm less convinced on the July 4th feelgood rally though, given that there has been o much buying of the market anyway over recent months

cheers
Pad
 
sunseeker,

sorry pressed the "send" button on my previous mail b4 realised that. :( hope u dont mind me clogging up the thread with another msg :)

I do actually watch the tape very closely as well - I agree its something most traders dont do nowadays. Just by seeing how the bid-ask sizes pulse u can draw quite a few conclusions - of coz if u go further and watch mrkt depth on both sides of the spread - yr conclusions r much better validated. But then its the next step which does come at an effort.... :)

A step even further (what cash traders do all the time on the floor) is actually identifying (by whatever means) WHO is acrually sitting below the bid or above the offer. However, i do not think we shud b concerned about that in our doings - thats Mission Impossible IV for a private trader (unless of coz that trader is someone like Mr. Trump which I am not :) )

cheers
 
Never really got on with the bid and ask and market depth. Open to too much faking from larger players. Where China describes watching the controlling player is akin to watching who the controlling 'axe' is on the L2 screen. Which of course you don't have for the indicies, and would be impossible to 'see' for the likes of us sitting at home.

I prefer to use the 'flow' or 'wave' of the chart and get into that, with fibs and my own sup and res levels. Then whichever way it goes I follow. Similar to 'tape' reading but using the chart instead.

This is why Tom's methods intrigue me. The predictive qualities that is.
 
US futures getting trashed.S&P getting mighty close to 966.
US nos will be important 3pm.

Steve
 
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