Sorry if I am repeating much of the past 50 pages, but I wrote this so I may as well post it!
I really enjoyed the three programmes as television. It also made me hugely glad that I don’t trade like that. My observations are:
1. I initially thought that the guy who put up the million dollars was either mad, very brave, very rich, or all three. Who on earth would think that a group of absolute novices (without much training and without a defined and proven system, see 2. below) could go head to head in the market with absolute professionals, and immediately win? I still think it was mad, but the fact that three of them did pretty well perhaps shows that good traders are more born than made. On reflection, Lex van Dam’s ‘gamble’, his confidence, and his relatively detached behaviour throughout the programme, perhaps shows why he is a successful hedge fund manager.
2. we weren’t shown what they were taught, but it certainly wasn’t a Turtle-type system (ie. This is the system. These are the rules. Follow them.). Trades seem to be placed on a variable mix of ideas, news, predictions, charts, personal interests, and gut instinct. I didn’t see any evidence of fundamental analysis, and not much systematic technical analysis.
3. the largely discretionary nature of the trading (‘there is no rulebook’) made success even more dependent on the innate skill and psychological traits of the traders. The programme clearly showed that intelligence and an interest in trading are necessary, but far from sufficient, conditions for success. As someone else has said, trading is simple but not easy.
4. most of the traders were far too emotional. They got excited when the trades went their way, and upset when they didn’t. It should just be numbers, plus or minus.
5. while the three who stayed the course did well, short-term success in particular market conditions (even if volatile) is absolutely no guarantee of long-term success over a range of market conditions. Eight weeks is too short a time to judge whether they have the stamina, discipline, consistency and edge to succeed in the long run.
6. most importantly, they were trading someone else’s money. The psychological challenges would have been even more evident if they had been winning and losing increasing amounts of their own money.
All good fun.
Michael