Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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SPX into the open
a putrid mess
a putrid mess
Dentalfloss
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chart gives us the general picture
gentle downside movement interrupted by recoils
good for us=confusion
gentle downside movement interrupted by recoils
good for us=confusion
Dentalfloss
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spx is unsupported#
chart comin
chart comin
Dentalfloss
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change rev to 3
its a fake
its a fake
Dentalfloss
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Yazza gotta be a bit careful buyin the indices
C
cantagril
Have been looking at ftse this morning and have decided that I'm not going to bother with it today. P&f seemed undecided to me. I'd really like to sell it now on the basis that it's already rebounded a bit and that the £ could well jump but as I'm already the wrong way on my EG I'll wait until the dust has settled after the numbers.
What do you see?
What do you see?
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
C
cantagril
FTSE
For some reason I couldn't get onto T2W but in the interim managed to nick a few with a short from 7700
Last edited by a moderator:
C
cantagril
...and my ftse short paid for the loss I've just taken on getting out of my short EG .8830...out at .8840 for -10
Dentalfloss
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For some reason I couldn't get onto T2W but in the interim management to nick a few with a short from 7700
Wazaaa..
C
cantagril
Wazaaa..
Thankyou for he moral support, Your Grace... but I think the footy is having a negative influence on you. Any further downhill and you'll be throwing up on the terraces and chucking bog roll about
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Playing about with UC atm. IMO overbought at current levels an due for a return to trend support and circa 1.3130 looks quite feasable. Short from 1.3250. Leaving it over the w/e for oil, numbers and (of course) Trump to work their magic.
That's me finished for the week.
ATB for a good one
That's me finished for the week.
ATB for a good one
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Dentalfloss
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The Week Ahead - Preview: 02 to 06 July 2018
- A new month and quarter awaits, but with US markets likely to be subdued by the Independence Day holiday on Wednesday, and with the US labour report on Friday, it may take may take a while to establish a direction for the various asset classes in the new quarter. politics and trade tensions will inevitably continue to be the main source for leftfield type headlines, with Sunday's presidential elections in Mexico expected to bring in the very left leaning Lopez Obrador (aka AMLO), whose hustings rhetoric has been a match for two of the G20's other "disruptor in chiefs", i.e. Trump and Salvini. France, Spain and Austria top the govt bond auction schedule, with the UK selling 10-y, and Japan offering 10 & 30-yr.
- A cursory look through the forecasts for the run of G7 economic data and surveys suggests that these will need to spring some surprises, if they are not to be sorted into the category 'tell me something that I don't know'. PMIs pepper the starts of the week with Saturday's Chinese official PMIs perhaps of most interest after the rather sluggish run of monthly indicators, and following on from the PBOC's rather blunt assessment on Friday that monetary policy options to deal with China's current economic challenges are very limited, and suggesting that the authorities need to look at rolling out property taxes to allow local governments to reduce their dependence on land sales for revenues. Elsewhere, Manufacturing PMIs are largely expected to drift lower, echoing what has been seen in the 'flash' G7 readings, with rising trade tensions clearly taking their toll on sentiment; Services PMI are generally seen edging higher. US Auto Sales are expected to how a modest improvement (177.0 Mln SAAR vs May 16.81 Mln), while Construction Spending is seen posting a more modest 0.5% m/m rise after surging 1.8% m/m in April. But pride of place will inevitably go to the labour report, above all Average Hourly Earnings, which are forecast to post another 0.3% m/m rise to edge the y/y rate up to 2.8%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 3,8%, with the focus more on the Underemployment Rate that fell to an 17-yr low of 7.6% last month, while the Payrolls consensus looks tediously familiar at +195K. Elsewhere the key items will be a) German Factory Orders that are projected to break a run of -3.5%, -0.2%, -1.1% and April's -2.5% m/m with a modest 1.1% m/m bounce; b) Japan's Q2 Tankan - seen broadly steady in sentiment terms vs. Q1, though the All Industry CapEx measure is forecast to jump to 9.3% from 2.3%, c) Japan's Labour Cash Earnings - seen at 0.9% y/y from 0.6%, though implying flat y/y Real Earnings (vs. April -0.2%), and d) Canadian labour data with Employment seen rebounding modestly from an unexpected -7.5K in May, and as with the US a close eye being kept on Wages, which surged to 3.9% y/y in May from April's 3.3%. The UK schedule is very much second division, though the BRC Shop Price Index and Q1 Labour Costs may attract some attention. Australian Retail Sales, Trade and Building Approvals, German Industrial Production and Italian Unemployment Rate offer further points of probably more academic interest.
- Given that the June FOMC meeting was also a press conference meeting, the minutes to be published on Thursday (due to the holiday) may offer little in the way of fresh insights, though the discussion of the upside and downside risks to the economy, and by extension the policy outlook may offer one or other nugget. There is no Fed speak scheduled at the time of writing, though there will be plenty of ECB, BoJ and BoE speakers, with the BoE also publishing the minutes of the most recent FPC meeting. Australia's RBA and Sweden's Riksbank are both expected to hold key policy rates at 1.5% and -0.50% respectively, with the RBA clearly on hold for a further protracted period (according to the latest consensus at least until Q3 2019), while the Riksbank continues to hint gently that it is thinking about hiking rates marginally, but still very clearly seeing itself hostage to ECB policy. Of particular note will be what observations are made on the SEK exchange rate, following comments from many policy committee members that the sharp decline in the SEK vs the EUR in the February through early May period was excessive.
- In the commodity space, trade tensions look likely to continue to rule the roost in the agricultural arena, though there will be interest in the annual UN FAO/OECD World Agricultural Outlook that is published this week. Oil markets will be trying to balance how much output will be increased in the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia, as the US seeks to enforce an oil sanctions on Iran by Q4, but also looking very closely at the API & EIA inventories data after last week's unexpectedly sharp drop. Trump clearly does not appear to understand that asking for lower oil prices and enforcing the Iran oil embargo is a total contradiction. A close eye needs to be kept on the rising level of popular protest in Iran, with many sectors of the economy grinding to a halt due to strikes, even if unfolding events look to be woefully underreported in the western world. This is precisely the denouement which I was referring to in the conclusion to the article on Iran in the May/June edition of the Ghost in the Machine - link here: http://admisi.com/customer-services/the-ghost-in-the-machine .
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist / Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International
- A new month and quarter awaits, but with US markets likely to be subdued by the Independence Day holiday on Wednesday, and with the US labour report on Friday, it may take may take a while to establish a direction for the various asset classes in the new quarter. politics and trade tensions will inevitably continue to be the main source for leftfield type headlines, with Sunday's presidential elections in Mexico expected to bring in the very left leaning Lopez Obrador (aka AMLO), whose hustings rhetoric has been a match for two of the G20's other "disruptor in chiefs", i.e. Trump and Salvini. France, Spain and Austria top the govt bond auction schedule, with the UK selling 10-y, and Japan offering 10 & 30-yr.
- A cursory look through the forecasts for the run of G7 economic data and surveys suggests that these will need to spring some surprises, if they are not to be sorted into the category 'tell me something that I don't know'. PMIs pepper the starts of the week with Saturday's Chinese official PMIs perhaps of most interest after the rather sluggish run of monthly indicators, and following on from the PBOC's rather blunt assessment on Friday that monetary policy options to deal with China's current economic challenges are very limited, and suggesting that the authorities need to look at rolling out property taxes to allow local governments to reduce their dependence on land sales for revenues. Elsewhere, Manufacturing PMIs are largely expected to drift lower, echoing what has been seen in the 'flash' G7 readings, with rising trade tensions clearly taking their toll on sentiment; Services PMI are generally seen edging higher. US Auto Sales are expected to how a modest improvement (177.0 Mln SAAR vs May 16.81 Mln), while Construction Spending is seen posting a more modest 0.5% m/m rise after surging 1.8% m/m in April. But pride of place will inevitably go to the labour report, above all Average Hourly Earnings, which are forecast to post another 0.3% m/m rise to edge the y/y rate up to 2.8%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 3,8%, with the focus more on the Underemployment Rate that fell to an 17-yr low of 7.6% last month, while the Payrolls consensus looks tediously familiar at +195K. Elsewhere the key items will be a) German Factory Orders that are projected to break a run of -3.5%, -0.2%, -1.1% and April's -2.5% m/m with a modest 1.1% m/m bounce; b) Japan's Q2 Tankan - seen broadly steady in sentiment terms vs. Q1, though the All Industry CapEx measure is forecast to jump to 9.3% from 2.3%, c) Japan's Labour Cash Earnings - seen at 0.9% y/y from 0.6%, though implying flat y/y Real Earnings (vs. April -0.2%), and d) Canadian labour data with Employment seen rebounding modestly from an unexpected -7.5K in May, and as with the US a close eye being kept on Wages, which surged to 3.9% y/y in May from April's 3.3%. The UK schedule is very much second division, though the BRC Shop Price Index and Q1 Labour Costs may attract some attention. Australian Retail Sales, Trade and Building Approvals, German Industrial Production and Italian Unemployment Rate offer further points of probably more academic interest.
- Given that the June FOMC meeting was also a press conference meeting, the minutes to be published on Thursday (due to the holiday) may offer little in the way of fresh insights, though the discussion of the upside and downside risks to the economy, and by extension the policy outlook may offer one or other nugget. There is no Fed speak scheduled at the time of writing, though there will be plenty of ECB, BoJ and BoE speakers, with the BoE also publishing the minutes of the most recent FPC meeting. Australia's RBA and Sweden's Riksbank are both expected to hold key policy rates at 1.5% and -0.50% respectively, with the RBA clearly on hold for a further protracted period (according to the latest consensus at least until Q3 2019), while the Riksbank continues to hint gently that it is thinking about hiking rates marginally, but still very clearly seeing itself hostage to ECB policy. Of particular note will be what observations are made on the SEK exchange rate, following comments from many policy committee members that the sharp decline in the SEK vs the EUR in the February through early May period was excessive.
- In the commodity space, trade tensions look likely to continue to rule the roost in the agricultural arena, though there will be interest in the annual UN FAO/OECD World Agricultural Outlook that is published this week. Oil markets will be trying to balance how much output will be increased in the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia, as the US seeks to enforce an oil sanctions on Iran by Q4, but also looking very closely at the API & EIA inventories data after last week's unexpectedly sharp drop. Trump clearly does not appear to understand that asking for lower oil prices and enforcing the Iran oil embargo is a total contradiction. A close eye needs to be kept on the rising level of popular protest in Iran, with many sectors of the economy grinding to a halt due to strikes, even if unfolding events look to be woefully underreported in the western world. This is precisely the denouement which I was referring to in the conclusion to the article on Iran in the May/June edition of the Ghost in the Machine - link here: http://admisi.com/customer-services/the-ghost-in-the-machine .
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist / Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International
C
cantagril
Just checked on my UC position and am somewhat stunned that we're 10 pips away from my target....so I've closed it at 1.3140 for +110.
Not bad for a couple of hours or so
Dentalfloss
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Just checked on my UC position and am somewhat stunned that we're 10 pips away from my target....so I've closed it at 1.3140 for +110.
Not bad for a couple of hours or so
Dentalfloss
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Dow since 26th January
still negative
still negative
Dentalfloss
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SPX trying to get positive into July 4th
Dentalfloss
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HILO plot gives us more detail
