Dentalfloss
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difficult to know if the latest bounce will get some follow thru.....or just get sold off
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Since 27th June price has become more orderly
a couple of pivots marked for the open
a couple of pivots marked for the open
Dentalfloss
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looks reasonably bullish...if support holds
Dentalfloss
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wide supp area down to 2676.ish
wide rez area aswell
piece of string is getting longer
wide rez area aswell
piece of string is getting longer
Atilla
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Woodies Weekly PP-S3 was at 2683 last week.
I agree we are probing support and I can't see it holding. Republican elections up ahead and Trump will have to maintain tariff stance as well as the rest of his rhetoric will have to continue.
I see us testing 2500s and once 200MA is breached it'll be very difficult to come back from that without a change of direction from the White House.
Dark clouds up ahead.
On the upside 2780 - 2931s looks enticing as a mission to Mars. Will take a lot of effort to get there and when we do we'll wonder WTH we were thinking?
:whistling
C
cantagril
Morning !
A sea of red on the indices so there's probably some good oppos for a long or two in there. CAC for example.
In the meantime, after falling like a stone on Friday UC bounced fairly predictably. 5 min chart is bullish and am now waiting to see whether we make it back up to 1.3250 area and then whether it'll go through that to 1.3340.
I'm looking at 1.3250 for a small short as I see as still a bit stretched at that level.
A sea of red on the indices so there's probably some good oppos for a long or two in there. CAC for example.
In the meantime, after falling like a stone on Friday UC bounced fairly predictably. 5 min chart is bullish and am now waiting to see whether we make it back up to 1.3250 area and then whether it'll go through that to 1.3340.
I'm looking at 1.3250 for a small short as I see as still a bit stretched at that level.
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C
cantagril
Buy order in on CAC40 at 5250 Target 5300.
I do like Attila's scenario for the S&P (with presumably most of the other indices) but I can't help thinking that Trump will do another North Korea type U-turn and cheer everyone up. If he's again able to present whatever agreements that arise as victories and good for the US and the world then we may be off to Mars ...or maybe that other planet between Saturn and Neptune.
I do like Attila's scenario for the S&P (with presumably most of the other indices) but I can't help thinking that Trump will do another North Korea type U-turn and cheer everyone up. If he's again able to present whatever agreements that arise as victories and good for the US and the world then we may be off to Mars ...or maybe that other planet between Saturn and Neptune.
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Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Mornin Sir Canta....yu are in fine form now......excellent stuff....keep up the good work
Mornin Sir Canta....yu are in fine form now......excellent stuff....keep up the good work
Dentalfloss
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ftse
2% dump since our call on friday morning
was in mega rez
2% dump since our call on friday morning
was in mega rez
Dentalfloss
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ftse..a tad oversold
Dentalfloss
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Buy order in on CAC40 at 5250 Target 5300.
I do like Attila's scenario for the S&P (with presumably most of the other indices) but I can't help thinking that Trump will do another North Korea type U-turn and cheer everyone up. If he's again able to present whatever agreements that arise as victories and good for the US and the world then we may be off to Mars ...or maybe that other planet between Saturn and Neptune.
Allez Les Blues.....what a game !!
Dentalfloss
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SPX
no sign of any bulls
no sign of any bulls
Dentalfloss
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SPX
first rez areas marked
lets see how it bounces off those
first rez areas marked
lets see how it bounces off those
Dentalfloss
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ftse
falling knife
7563 first rez area
falling knife
7563 first rez area
Dentalfloss
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SPX
first rez areas marked
lets see how it bounces off those
tested our 2702 and dumped
seems to be gettin support
Dentalfloss
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- Surveys dominate start of the week, focus on digesting solid Q2 Tankan
and improving Asia PMIs, awaiting Eurozone, UK and Americas PMIs;
politics and trade still in the driving seat on market sentiment
- Japan Q2 Tankan: far more robust than media report suggests, above
all given trade concerns and uncertainties
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs: Italy likely to echo French and German
dips on trade tensions, auto sector woes
- UK Manufacturing PMI: marginal dip seen, CBI survey implies upside
risk, but trade / Brexit concerns likely to restrain
- US Manufacturing ISM: modest dip to still v robust level expected,
mostly paced by expected drop back in Prices Paid
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The new month and quarter kick with the Japan Q2 Tankan and Asia Manufacturing PMIs to be digested, ahead of the readings from Europe and the Americas, with Us Construction Spending the only other item of note. As for the Japan Q2 Tankan, one really does have to call out all the big news agencies for some very poor reporting on this - the misses relative to forecasts on the DI indicators were miniscule, and forgot to mention that any reading above 20 on any of the DIs represent a very robust pace of economic activity (current and outlook DIs were all above 20!), and while one should be wary of taking this as what will actually happen, the FY 2018 Large Company CapEx estimate at 13.6% y/y vs. expected 9.3% and a prior reading of 2.3% is a very big positive, above all given the uncertainty relating to trade. UK weekend press reports suggests that the internal party negotiations within the Tory government and the Labour opposition are coming to ahead. Neither Mrs May's laying down the gauntlet to the Brexiteer wing of the Tory party to 'back me or sack me and thus playing the fear of Corbyn card, nor the reported 'strategy' of the Brexiteers to offer nothing more in the negotiations, in the deluded, condescending and pompous belief that the EU will have to back down at the effective October deadline are encouraging, and the risks of an 'accidental hard Brexit' appear to be rising at a very rapid pace. More pertinently, both of those standpoints, and the total fog around what precisely the Labour party's stance / policy is on Brexit (also due to deep internal divisions) underline that there are no leading UK politicians that have the interests of the country and its people at heart, but are only interested in tribalism and their own overinflated egos. Much the same can be applied to the rather unsurprising escalation coalition crisis in Germany, where Interior Minister Seehofer's offer to resign his cabinet post and leadership of the CSU is primarily a function of hi determination to bring down Merkel, as the last act of a failed political career, and largely only motivated by trying to boost the CSU's prospects in the upcoming Bavarian state elections - so much for Ordnungspolitik. There are certainly similarities to & echoes of Howe and Heseltine's efforts that eventually brought down Mrs Thatcher, though their motivations at least had some justification in terms of the political direction of the government. As previously noted, this current version of a grand coalition looks to have a very short shelf life, even if Merkel miraculously overcomes the current crisis.
** Asia/ Europe / USA - June Manufacturing PMIs **
PMIs pepper the start of this week with Saturday's Chinese official PMIs (manufacturing slipping as expected, Services little changed at a robust level) running slightly against the grain of the rather sluggish run of May monthly indicators, and following on from the PBOC's rather blunt assessment on Friday that monetary policy options to deal with China's current economic challenges are very limited, and suggesting that the authorities need to look at rolling out property taxes to allow local governments to reduce their dependence on land sales for revenues. The Asian PMIs were all higher, in some cases such as India and Vietnam signalling a marked picked up, and even where activity remains subdued such as Malaysia and South Korea, the readings were still notably better than in May. Elsewhere, Manufacturing PMIs are largely expected to drift lower, echoing what has been seen in the 'flash' G7 readings, with rising trade tensions clearly taking their toll on sentiment. in the UK, the PMI is seen edging modestly lower to 54.0 from a better than expected in May 54.4, though if the CBI Industrial Trends survey is anything to go by (Orders 13 vs. expected +2, prior -3) then the risks would appear to be to the upside, though the soft French & German readings paced by trade war fears implies downside risks.
RECAP The Week Ahead - Preview: 02 to 06 July 2018
- A new month and quarter awaits, but with US markets likely to be subdued by the Independence Day holiday on Wednesday, and with the US labour report on Friday, it may take may take a while to establish a direction for the various asset classes in the new quarter. politics and trade tensions will inevitably continue to be the main source for leftfield type headlines, with Sunday's presidential elections in Mexico bringing in the very left leaning Lopez Obrador (aka AMLO) as expected, whose hustings rhetoric has been a match for two of the G20's other "disruptor in chiefs", i.e. Trump and Salvini. France, Spain and Austria top the govt bond auction schedule, with the UK selling 10-y, and Japan offering 10 & 30-yr.
- A cursory look through the forecasts for the run of G7 economic data and surveys suggests that these will need to spring some surprises, if they are not to be sorted into the category 'tell me something that I don't know'. Services PMI are generally seen edging higher, echoing the China and flash Eurozone Services PMIs. US Auto Sales are expected to how a modest improvement (177.0 Mln SAAR vs May 16.81 Mln), while Construction Spending is seen posting a more modest 0.5% m/m rise after surging 1.8% m/m in April. But pride of place will inevitably go to the labour report, above all Average Hourly Earnings, which are forecast to post another 0.3% m/m rise to edge the y/y rate up to 2.8%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 3,8%, with the focus more on the Underemployment Rate that fell to an 17-yr low of 7.6% last month, while the Payrolls consensus looks tediously familiar at +195K. Elsewhere the key items will be a) German Factory Orders that are projected to break a run of -3.5%, -0.2%, -1.1% and April's -2.5% m/m with a modest 1.1% m/m bounce; b) Japan's Q2 Tankan - seen broadly steady in sentiment terms vs. Q1, though the All Industry CapEx measure is forecast to jump to 9.3% from 2.3%, c) Japan's Labour Cash Earnings - seen at 0.9% y/y from 0.6%, though implying flat y/y Real Earnings (vs. April -0.2%), and d) Canadian labour data with Employment seen rebounding modestly from an unexpected -7.5K in May, and as with the US a close eye being kept on Wages, which surged to 3.9% y/y in May from April's 3.3%. The UK schedule is very much second division, though the BRC Shop Price Index and Q1 Labour Costs may attract some attention. Australian Retail Sales, Trade and Building Approvals, German Industrial Production and Italian Unemployment Rate offer further points of probably more academic interest.
- Given that the June FOMC meeting was also a press conference meeting, the minutes to be published on Thursday (due to the holiday) may offer little in the way of fresh insights, though the discussion of the upside and downside risks to the economy, and by extension the policy outlook may offer one or other nugget. There is no Fed speak scheduled at the time of writing, though there will be plenty of ECB, BoJ and BoE speakers, with the BoE also publishing the minutes of the most recent FPC meeting. Australia's RBA and Sweden's Riksbank are both expected to hold key policy rates at 1.5% and -0.50% respectively, with the RBA clearly on hold for a further protracted period (according to the latest consensus at least until Q3 2019), while the Riksbank continues to hint gently that it is thinking about hiking rates marginally, but still very clearly seeing itself hostage to ECB policy. Of particular note will be what observations are made on the SEK exchange rate, following comments from many policy committee members that the sharp decline in the SEK vs the EUR in the February through early May period was excessive.
- In the commodity space, trade tensions look likely to continue to rule the roost in the agricultural arena, though there will be interest in the annual UN FAO/OECD World Agricultural Outlook that is published this week. Oil markets will be trying to balance how much output will be increased in the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia, as the US seeks to enforce an oil sanctions on Iran by Q4, but also looking very closely at the API & EIA inventories data after last week's unexpectedly sharp drop. Trump clearly does not appear to understand that asking for lower oil prices and enforcing the Iran oil embargo is a total contradiction. A close eye needs to be kept on the rising level of popular protest in Iran, with many sectors of the economy grinding to a halt due to strikes, even if unfolding events look to be woefully underreported in the western world. This is precisely the denouement which I was referring to in the conclusion to the article on Iran in the May/June edition of the Ghost in the Machine - link here: http://admisi.com/customer-services/the-ghost-in-the-machine .
from Marc Ostwald
and improving Asia PMIs, awaiting Eurozone, UK and Americas PMIs;
politics and trade still in the driving seat on market sentiment
- Japan Q2 Tankan: far more robust than media report suggests, above
all given trade concerns and uncertainties
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs: Italy likely to echo French and German
dips on trade tensions, auto sector woes
- UK Manufacturing PMI: marginal dip seen, CBI survey implies upside
risk, but trade / Brexit concerns likely to restrain
- US Manufacturing ISM: modest dip to still v robust level expected,
mostly paced by expected drop back in Prices Paid
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The new month and quarter kick with the Japan Q2 Tankan and Asia Manufacturing PMIs to be digested, ahead of the readings from Europe and the Americas, with Us Construction Spending the only other item of note. As for the Japan Q2 Tankan, one really does have to call out all the big news agencies for some very poor reporting on this - the misses relative to forecasts on the DI indicators were miniscule, and forgot to mention that any reading above 20 on any of the DIs represent a very robust pace of economic activity (current and outlook DIs were all above 20!), and while one should be wary of taking this as what will actually happen, the FY 2018 Large Company CapEx estimate at 13.6% y/y vs. expected 9.3% and a prior reading of 2.3% is a very big positive, above all given the uncertainty relating to trade. UK weekend press reports suggests that the internal party negotiations within the Tory government and the Labour opposition are coming to ahead. Neither Mrs May's laying down the gauntlet to the Brexiteer wing of the Tory party to 'back me or sack me and thus playing the fear of Corbyn card, nor the reported 'strategy' of the Brexiteers to offer nothing more in the negotiations, in the deluded, condescending and pompous belief that the EU will have to back down at the effective October deadline are encouraging, and the risks of an 'accidental hard Brexit' appear to be rising at a very rapid pace. More pertinently, both of those standpoints, and the total fog around what precisely the Labour party's stance / policy is on Brexit (also due to deep internal divisions) underline that there are no leading UK politicians that have the interests of the country and its people at heart, but are only interested in tribalism and their own overinflated egos. Much the same can be applied to the rather unsurprising escalation coalition crisis in Germany, where Interior Minister Seehofer's offer to resign his cabinet post and leadership of the CSU is primarily a function of hi determination to bring down Merkel, as the last act of a failed political career, and largely only motivated by trying to boost the CSU's prospects in the upcoming Bavarian state elections - so much for Ordnungspolitik. There are certainly similarities to & echoes of Howe and Heseltine's efforts that eventually brought down Mrs Thatcher, though their motivations at least had some justification in terms of the political direction of the government. As previously noted, this current version of a grand coalition looks to have a very short shelf life, even if Merkel miraculously overcomes the current crisis.
** Asia/ Europe / USA - June Manufacturing PMIs **
PMIs pepper the start of this week with Saturday's Chinese official PMIs (manufacturing slipping as expected, Services little changed at a robust level) running slightly against the grain of the rather sluggish run of May monthly indicators, and following on from the PBOC's rather blunt assessment on Friday that monetary policy options to deal with China's current economic challenges are very limited, and suggesting that the authorities need to look at rolling out property taxes to allow local governments to reduce their dependence on land sales for revenues. The Asian PMIs were all higher, in some cases such as India and Vietnam signalling a marked picked up, and even where activity remains subdued such as Malaysia and South Korea, the readings were still notably better than in May. Elsewhere, Manufacturing PMIs are largely expected to drift lower, echoing what has been seen in the 'flash' G7 readings, with rising trade tensions clearly taking their toll on sentiment. in the UK, the PMI is seen edging modestly lower to 54.0 from a better than expected in May 54.4, though if the CBI Industrial Trends survey is anything to go by (Orders 13 vs. expected +2, prior -3) then the risks would appear to be to the upside, though the soft French & German readings paced by trade war fears implies downside risks.
RECAP The Week Ahead - Preview: 02 to 06 July 2018
- A new month and quarter awaits, but with US markets likely to be subdued by the Independence Day holiday on Wednesday, and with the US labour report on Friday, it may take may take a while to establish a direction for the various asset classes in the new quarter. politics and trade tensions will inevitably continue to be the main source for leftfield type headlines, with Sunday's presidential elections in Mexico bringing in the very left leaning Lopez Obrador (aka AMLO) as expected, whose hustings rhetoric has been a match for two of the G20's other "disruptor in chiefs", i.e. Trump and Salvini. France, Spain and Austria top the govt bond auction schedule, with the UK selling 10-y, and Japan offering 10 & 30-yr.
- A cursory look through the forecasts for the run of G7 economic data and surveys suggests that these will need to spring some surprises, if they are not to be sorted into the category 'tell me something that I don't know'. Services PMI are generally seen edging higher, echoing the China and flash Eurozone Services PMIs. US Auto Sales are expected to how a modest improvement (177.0 Mln SAAR vs May 16.81 Mln), while Construction Spending is seen posting a more modest 0.5% m/m rise after surging 1.8% m/m in April. But pride of place will inevitably go to the labour report, above all Average Hourly Earnings, which are forecast to post another 0.3% m/m rise to edge the y/y rate up to 2.8%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 3,8%, with the focus more on the Underemployment Rate that fell to an 17-yr low of 7.6% last month, while the Payrolls consensus looks tediously familiar at +195K. Elsewhere the key items will be a) German Factory Orders that are projected to break a run of -3.5%, -0.2%, -1.1% and April's -2.5% m/m with a modest 1.1% m/m bounce; b) Japan's Q2 Tankan - seen broadly steady in sentiment terms vs. Q1, though the All Industry CapEx measure is forecast to jump to 9.3% from 2.3%, c) Japan's Labour Cash Earnings - seen at 0.9% y/y from 0.6%, though implying flat y/y Real Earnings (vs. April -0.2%), and d) Canadian labour data with Employment seen rebounding modestly from an unexpected -7.5K in May, and as with the US a close eye being kept on Wages, which surged to 3.9% y/y in May from April's 3.3%. The UK schedule is very much second division, though the BRC Shop Price Index and Q1 Labour Costs may attract some attention. Australian Retail Sales, Trade and Building Approvals, German Industrial Production and Italian Unemployment Rate offer further points of probably more academic interest.
- Given that the June FOMC meeting was also a press conference meeting, the minutes to be published on Thursday (due to the holiday) may offer little in the way of fresh insights, though the discussion of the upside and downside risks to the economy, and by extension the policy outlook may offer one or other nugget. There is no Fed speak scheduled at the time of writing, though there will be plenty of ECB, BoJ and BoE speakers, with the BoE also publishing the minutes of the most recent FPC meeting. Australia's RBA and Sweden's Riksbank are both expected to hold key policy rates at 1.5% and -0.50% respectively, with the RBA clearly on hold for a further protracted period (according to the latest consensus at least until Q3 2019), while the Riksbank continues to hint gently that it is thinking about hiking rates marginally, but still very clearly seeing itself hostage to ECB policy. Of particular note will be what observations are made on the SEK exchange rate, following comments from many policy committee members that the sharp decline in the SEK vs the EUR in the February through early May period was excessive.
- In the commodity space, trade tensions look likely to continue to rule the roost in the agricultural arena, though there will be interest in the annual UN FAO/OECD World Agricultural Outlook that is published this week. Oil markets will be trying to balance how much output will be increased in the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia, as the US seeks to enforce an oil sanctions on Iran by Q4, but also looking very closely at the API & EIA inventories data after last week's unexpectedly sharp drop. Trump clearly does not appear to understand that asking for lower oil prices and enforcing the Iran oil embargo is a total contradiction. A close eye needs to be kept on the rising level of popular protest in Iran, with many sectors of the economy grinding to a halt due to strikes, even if unfolding events look to be woefully underreported in the western world. This is precisely the denouement which I was referring to in the conclusion to the article on Iran in the May/June edition of the Ghost in the Machine - link here: http://admisi.com/customer-services/the-ghost-in-the-machine .
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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tested our 2702 rez....and dump
Dentalfloss
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no support as yet
Dentalfloss
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Sir canta
5270 first rez on the bounce
Allez les blues
5270 first rez on the bounce
Allez les blues
