Trading the SPX

[Atilla]

More evidence for Diamond pattern.....high put volume could give floor for a right shoulder rally into April. Still short term bearish into late March ITD though.

Source:
Puts Build Ahead of Fed Meeting
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/plus/bgscommentary.aspx?ID=18622

I'm sorry about the quality of my diagram, but this is what I perceived to be a diamond.

I think it's on the bottom side so SPX I'd say according to Bulkoswki chart pattern's is likely to bounce back up.

 

[Buy The Dips]

makes sense.....this thing looks like short-squeeze to SPX 1420....the 50% retracement from Feb highs

 

[Hook Shot]

Posted Sat 17 March

Total commercial COT data has moved from very short to essentially net flat.

Right on the money!

 

[iqfeed]

Hi
Its me again needing more help
I did subscribe to IQfeed, so now am running Quote Tracker with CME mini, CBOT mini and Eurex feed but I have no idea how to find what I need to have which is .ES, YM and DAX for starters.
Always garteful for help
maciek

I assume you have found the symbols by now, or contact our customer support group for assistance. In any case, the symbols you are looking for is (for the front month contract):
@ES#
@YM#
and
XG#

Or, you can enter the specific contract such as @ESM7, @YMM7, etc.

There is a symbol search, as well as a symbol guide on our website should you need help. If you can't find what you are looking for, use the RT chat function on our site to contact customer support. They will gladly help you find what you are looking for.

Jay

 

[Hook Shot]

What is the weekly chart telling us ?

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX

most of the previous corrections of the last few years have gone below the 40w moving average........ except this one .... so far..

If we follow the pattern there is at least 50pts of downside to break 1360.
However, if we are going to hold above the 40w average - this could be seen as quite bullish mid to long term... and implies we're still okay...

Lets see how we finish this week first eh...... :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX

most of the previous corrections of the last few years have gone below the 40w moving average........ except this one .... so far..

If we follow the pattern there is at least 50pts of downside to break 1360.
However, if we are going to hold above the 40w average - this could be seen as quite bullish mid to long term... and implies we're still okay...

Lets see how we finish this week first eh...... :cheesy:

On the 4 hour charts I see a perfect H&S reversal...

If the TA is correct we have a bounce up to 1435 on route...

I may try going long if 1413 is breached. A small bet.

 

[Bez]

Today is a green day which means it cycle day 2 of the 4 day cycle...The green is just the colour given & has nothing to do with price.

The normal rotation should be Low High Low so we'll see how it holds up with the FED :?:

 

[Bez]

The 1415-16( on the SPX ) is a 1:1 with 161.8% so its a key area for both sides....

You can see from this earlier chart the 161.8% can be seen as a W3 top of the bull count or a C wave of a zig-zag for the bears....

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=26367

 

[Atilla]

The 1415-16( on the SPX ) is a 1:1 with 161.8% so its a key area for both sides....

You can see from this earlier chart the 161.8% can be seen as a W3 top of the bull count or a C wave of a zig-zag for the bears....

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=26367

Pooh sticks, I missed the ride up.

Over cautious. Now thinking how it will go. Just touched 1435 and looking at an opportunity to short.

 

[Buy The Dips]

Todays rally revealed a very bearish Andrews Pitchfork into a July 5 - SPX 1191.50 target Ive had for quite awhile...

 

[Buy The Dips]

Heres why July 5 should be the major SLTD Delta low....

pp 53 'Spiral Calendar' by Carolan - ISBN 0-932750-21-4

Quote:
"Each of the spirals in Figures 4-8 and 4-10 has a focus that is the first full moon after the winter solstice. This combination of full moon and winter solstice seems to produce the most perfect of spirals that are associated exclusively with market lows"

An F9 Spiral points directly to July 5 which is also the 52 month cycle low mentioned by Hurst in "Profit Magic"

 

[Atilla]

Todays rally revealed a very bearish Andrews Pitchfork into a July 5 - SPX 1191.50 target Ive had for quite awhile...

I do hope so BTD. I've got 1320 on my list but hey 1191 even better. I do think we are set up for a nice fall though. Did short it at 1434 but only came away with 21pips. I'll wait for the BBs to narrow now...

 

[Buy The Dips]

Atilla, im tiny bit underwater, shorted the SPX 1422 which was the .786/1.272 but the market needed that 1437 area to reveal 2 gems of a Bear market rally......

Diamond and Pitchfork.....

 

[Atilla]

Atilla, im tiny bit underwater, shorted the SPX 1422 which was the .786/1.272 but the market needed that 1437 area to reveal 2 gems of a Bear market rally......

Diamond and Pitchfork.....

Hi BTD,

I made this first chart back in November 06 and the 2nd one just now. Fundamentally for the long term I still feel the reasoning is in play.

Basically, along the way at peaks 1-3 we have had 61% fib retrace.

We should have had another correction in Nov/Dec but not only has the SPX over shot the standard error channel, we haven't had the 61% retrace ( also 10% correction). (I reckon this is the old boys club of pension fund managers colluding to pump up the market to get their end of year bonuses).

On top of all this extended markets, economic points 1-5 are still in play and much worse + Iraq mess and now the subprime market lending default issues.

Based on this analysis I reckon a 61% retrace from the 1450 heights takes us approx to 1320. Hence my target.

Your target of 1190 I can equaly visualise as the bottom trend line takes it up to 1050-1100 regions. Give or take 100 points I won't quibble

So now I will be closely watching for the next meltdown.

I don't believe there is any conviction in this market. Only folly and hype.

 

[Bez]

Nice charts Atilla & BTD...

The Only problem I have is the Inter High is due around the 28th of March.. The time hit for yesterday is for the lesser SITD point. Yesterdays high was the second SITD high point of this up move, Inters normally come in on the 3 point which from a time perspective leans towards the 28th...:?:

 

[Atilla]

Nice charts Atilla & BTD...

The Only problem I have is the Inter High is due around the 28th of March.. The time hit for yesterday is for the lesser SITD point. Yesterdays high was the second SITD high point of this up move, Inters normally come in on the 3 point which from a time perspective leans towards the 28th...:?:

That means we have another high due does it. I hope it's not 1460 or 1500?

Still watching SPX. Looks like a lover high being formed.

 

[Bez]

I'm not massively bearish due to this chart of the seasonal long delta I posted the other day..

The higher frame up from the seasonal , the long term delta high point isn't due to April at its earliest ..The end of May is more of its normal window...

The red X on the chart represents where we are in the seasonal cycle.....The Green X represents the next seasonal point and the first window the LTD point high can come in with.

 

[Bez]

Heres why July 5 should be the major SLTD Delta low....

The super high came in on the start of May last year & the low came in at the start of July last year..

So were not due another SLTD point till 08 at the earlist......


:?:

 

[Bez]

Are we in one of those peskey ED's on the ES
:?:

A 5 min chart...

 

[Atilla]

Are we in one of those peskey ED's on the ES
:?:

A 5 min chart...

Hi Bez,

Is this chart the same as SPX500 as my numbers don't add up to yours?

I've received the Delta Phenomenon book today. I just read the intro pages and probably do good reading over the weekend.

On the SPX I see resistance at 1440. Given the housing stats I thought it was going to brake through but seems to be hovering.

Very mixed up day today.