Trading the SPX

[Buy The Dips]

[QUOTE="Buy the Dips]There is a chorus of respectable forecasters out there are also mentioning that March 9-12 area as a bottom.

I have March 9-12 as a top.....dont know if that is good or bad yet for me being the lone bullish voice [/QUOTE]

Had this 3/12 area as a top last week.....lets see what happens tomorrow

 

[Atilla]

Had this 3/12 area as a top last week.....lets see what happens tomorrow

The US housing stats and bad loans and over stretched debts scenario is not much different to the UK.

It seems the battle ground seems to have moved from 1390 to 1400.

I'm expecting a drop to 1390 - 84 regions for starters today.

 

[Bez]

Nice chart on the delta points BTD

I have Friday (16th) as the lesser delta frame point which the Inter could come in with..

 

[Atilla]

Nice chart on the delta points BTD

I have Friday (16th) as the lesser delta frame point which the Inter could come in with..

Good day on SPX today. To clarify are we saying this down trend is likely to continue until Friday before retrace and that it's likely to be 1360 areas.

How is the 1360 area of support determined?

I was guestimating the correction is likely to be at least fib 61% level at 1320. Only now I'm hearing some talk of 15% correction which takes it down to 100% fib retrace to 1232. .

I don't think the market is going to take a gradual approach to this correction. I feel people going to get out for the early summer now and watch until August. I may be jumping the gun but I housing issues are serious long term problems.

I'm not sure if I'm being greedy but I can't help feeling today's move will play out to 1370 tonight.

 

[Pat494]

The US housing stats and bad loans and over stretched debts scenario is not much different to the UK.

It seems the battle ground seems to have moved from 1390 to 1400.

I'm expecting a drop to 1390 - 84 regions for starters today.

Good call

 

[Atilla]

Good call

Thank you Pat494,

I don't know if I'm being greedy now but I'm looking at 1370s for close of day.

I think it will get worse too before it gets better.

 

[ammo]

Thank you Pat494,

I don't know if I'm being greedy now but I'm looking at 1370s for close of day.

I think it will get worse too before it gets better.

not today but 1350 is the target,200 day ma,your 1360 will be blown thru with panick selling

 

[Buy The Dips]

nice trend change so far

So far the SPX is following the extremely fast 24x1, 12x1, 6x1 and 3x1 Gann lines....and is potentially pointing to SPX 1290 in 10 days if this thing comes unhinged.

Just today SPX is following the extremely bearish Gann 24x1 (24 points per day)

 

[Buy The Dips]

If decline is going to be slower.....cant rule this out.....c-wave rally back to the Gann 2x1

Either way this thing is bearish into the June/July 4.5 year cycle lows.

 

[Atilla]

If decline is going to be slower.....cant rule this out.....c-wave rally back to the Gann 2x1

Either way this thing is bearish into the June/July 4.5 year cycle lows.

Nice charts BTD and Bez. Your charts fuel my conviction. I feel the former is possible.

I would place a less than 5% chance of 1430 levels being reached again. I appreciate technically it's a possibility but far out. Even if interest rates are cut now, the market will say it's a positive sign of weakness and they would still sell and wait for results to show profits.

Some of the analysts are still banging their drums about fundamental strength in the US economy. What a load of nonsense. Fundamentaly weak yes but strength is all hype and liquidity with no substance.

Hate to start thinking about how the Asian markets going to react to today, when they open in the morning. I know what I would do, sell my portfolio and sort my garden out.

 

[Atilla]

Just looking forward to the day and wondering thinking tinkering with lines... Reluctantly I guess we must have some kind of bounce.

So I think we may have a pull back to 1383-90 regions which is likely to fail and continued falls should continue.

I don't know if we will brake through yesterdays close but I'm going to be greedy and guess we'll close around the 1370s again.

If we close above 1380 I'll be weary of pull back tomorrow.

If we close below 1370 I'll be delighted and expect further falls on route to target of 1320.

I'll be watching my BB and MA for brakeout from 1385 - 1375.

Good trading everyone.

 

[Buy The Dips]

Selloff looks like a b-wave. I think the Delta ITD is inverting here with IBP (1).....postponing the decline for week or so.

New Moon is coming up and they tend to have bullish bias....could see SPX 1419 (50% retracement) back at that Gann 2x1 before next decline resumes.

 

[Buy The Dips]

I have Friday (16th) as the lesser delta frame point which the Inter could come in with..

Bez.....possible your ITD could bottom today? (instead of 16th)

SPX looks like it wants to bounce.

 

[Atilla]

Bez.....possible your ITD could bottom today? (instead of 16th)

SPX looks like it wants to bounce.

Hi BTD,

This is exceptional SPX movement.

I've recently bought that expensive Delta Phenomenon book waiting for Amazon to deliver and hopefuly be able to join in some of your analysis.

I understand from what little reading I've done that DPheno. can tell timing of turns but not magnitude. Do you combine Fibonacci and Elliot Wave theory to get the magnitudes?

Very interesting indeed.

 

[dc2000]

I've recently bought that expensive Delta Phenomenon book waiting for Amazon to deliver and hopefuly be able to join in some of your analysis.

you should have said

FWIW from an elliot point of view we are in wave C of correction B was on Monday

 

[Atilla]

you should have said

FWIW from an elliot point of view we are in wave C of correction B was on Monday

Many thanks DC.

Shouldn't C be an upward move?

SPX is still heading south.

 

[Bez]

Speaking of EW...



If this goes then its in serious technical trouble & the bears will see 1343 as the next stop ....

For Atilla

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

 

[Buy The Dips]

I understand from what little reading I've done that DPheno. can tell timing of turns but not magnitude. Do you combine Fibonacci and Elliot Wave theory to get the magnitudes?

Atilla yep, Delta by itself cant project magnitudes much, one needs to apply Elliott patterns and Fibs. I personally try to combine as many methods possible to get the best probabilities: Hurst, Delta, Elliott, Gann, Spiral Calendar etc.

http://www.tradertom.com/analysis.htm is an excellent Delta blog to keep an eye on.

Currently we are in the Delta Inversion window, hence a bit tricky in here as to immediate direction. So far I am early on any SPX bounce. but I think it could still occur.

Here is some Matrix info from Dutch site which expands on Delta: http://babelfish.altavista.com/babe...&url=http://www.247free.org/marketmatrix.html

 

[Atilla]

Atilla yep, Delta by itself cant project magnitudes much, one needs to apply Elliott patterns and Fibs. I personally try to combine as many methods possible to get the best probabilities: Hurst, Delta, Elliott, Gann, Spiral Calendar etc.

http://www.tradertom.com/analysis.htm is an excellent Delta blog to keep an eye on.

Currently we are in the Delta Inversion window, hence a bit tricky in here as to immediate direction. So far I am early on any SPX bounce. but I think it could still occur.

Here is some Matrix info from Dutch site which expands on Delta: http://babelfish.altavista.com/babe...&url=http://www.247free.org/marketmatrix.html

Thank you very much to you both.

Much appreciated.

 

[dc2000]

Many thanks DC.

Shouldn't C be an upward move?

SPX is still heading south.

I had it as down but Im far from an expert